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4764

雙鍵 Chemicals As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

steady quality, premium valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 雙鍵 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 12Quality 74Growth 82Momentum 99Chips 4

Is 雙鍵 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 74th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 3.7%.

  • Valuation is high.PE is in the 94th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 90th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -8.8% of volume (net sell).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 42.5%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bearish -0.46
BearishNeutralBullish

Distribution to retail — bearish

  • Distribution to retail — bearish
  • 台灣摩根士丹利 holds 1,256 lots
  • sellers have 1,098 lots left, ~270 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +143% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 台灣摩根士丹利 has accumulated 1,256 lots since the start (sold 15%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 美商高盛 peaked at 1,245 lots, has sold 32%, 842 left, paused recently.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -10.38pp, mid holders +4, retail +5.31pp — drifting down to retail.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -407 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
台灣摩根士丹利富邦證券群益金鼎-台北台新永豐金-信義中國信託
Distributing
美商高盛永豐金證券凱基-站前元大證券凱基-台北港商野村
Desks
own scale
玉山-城中凱基-高雄玉山-板橋元大-永和
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 台灣摩根士丹利 +1,256
    sold 15%· still adding
  • 富邦證券 +935
    sold 22%
  • 群益金鼎-台北 +735
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 台新 +698
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 永豐金-信義 +517
    sold 16%
  • 中國信託 +502
    sold 14%

Distributing

  • 美商高盛 842 left
    sold 32%· paused recently
  • 永豐金證券 167 left
    sold 81%· paused recently
  • 凱基-站前 317 left
    sold 64%· ~31 sessions to clear
  • 元大證券 244 left
    sold 68%· paused recently
  • 凱基-台北 176 left
    sold 73%· paused recently
  • 港商野村 65 left
    sold 89%· ~4 sessions to clear

Desks

  • 玉山-城中 -2,594
    unclassified
  • 凱基-高雄 -2,129
    unclassified
  • 玉山-板橋 -1,996
    unclassified
  • 元大-永和 -1,810
    unclassified
Still selling 1,098 lots ~270 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +1,323 absorbed / -631 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -329 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Weak direction: big-holder share fell while retail share rose.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 42.49%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

28 historical occurrences (since 2018-01-04)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 54.5%, Sample 22, Median +1.59%, Excess +5.05%, Beat mkt rate 50%；60-day: Win 45%, Sample 20, Median -0.47%, Excess +4.12%, Beat mkt rate 45%；120-day: Win 47.4%, Sample 19, Median -0.55%, Excess +8.19%, Beat mkt rate 57.9%

120 days after: historical avg +14.86%

20-day +6.39%
60-day +8.53%
120-day +14.86%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
54.5%
45%
47.4%
Sample
22
20
19
Median
+1.59%
-0.47%
-0.55%
Excess
+5.05%
+4.12%
+8.19%
Beat mkt rate
50%
45%
57.9%

Over 19 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 14.86%, beat the market by 8.19 pts; win rate 47.4%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 0Insufficient data
20-40 0Insufficient data
40-60 54-8.1% -7.1% 0% -26.3%
60-80 340-5.7% -4.8% 21.5% -13.3%
80-100 You are here249+144.3% +54.1% 65.1% +56.3%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 168.09, at the 89.8th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
Insufficient data
(0d)
-2.5%
Win rate 21.7% Excess +2.4%
92d
Now
+86.9%
Win rate 41.8% Excess +59.2%
196d
60-day momentum down
Insufficient data
(0d)
-2.3%
Win rate 28.1% Excess +4%
139d
+43.7%
Win rate 62.9% Excess +14.9%
318d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 196 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 86.9%, win rate 41.8%, beat the market by 59.2%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

7 times historically; 60-day forward avg +74.05%, win rate 60%, beating the market by +60.66 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

21 times historically; 60-day forward avg +5.82%, win rate 55%, beating the market by -0.62 pts on average.

What does 雙鍵 do? Company profile

化學工業／特用化學品 上市

Overview

雙鍵化工股份有限公司成立於1994年2月17日，總部位於新北市中和區中正路959號4樓，統一編號84754072，主要從事塑膠添加劑、UV光固化材料、數位印花材料與電子用化學品之研發、製造與銷售。股票代號4764，2016年10月登錄興櫃，2018年1月4日於臺灣證券交易所上市。董事長為蔡茂德，總經理為陳仲平；實收資本額約新台幣8.554億元，已發行普通股約85,542,062股。年報揭露2024年4月30日員工411人，研發人員33人。2024年4月30日前十大主要股東包含杰迪思投資國際股份有限公司11.79%、塞席爾商SHINNING SPARK LIMITED 8.99%、林素芳7.98%、佳德亞投資股份有限公司7.54%、塞席爾商JUMBO HARVEST LIMITED 6.92%、塞席爾商RIGHT POINT LIMITED 5.92%、李昆昌5.32%、王棟海4.91%、顥揚投資有限公司3.94%、劉俊杰3.40%。2025年度合併營收2,849,976千元，年增約5.46%，稅後淨利歸屬母公司104,540千元，EPS 1.22元，較2024年虧損轉盈。

Business

雙鍵是特用化學品製造商，產品線橫跨塑膠添加劑、光固化材料、數位紡織／數位印花材料與電子材料。2025年產品營收結構依年報資料為：塑膠添加劑1,665,587千元、占58.44%；光固化材料687,404千元、占24.12%；其他496,985千元、占17.44%。塑膠添加劑包含抗氧化劑、紫外線吸收劑、光安定劑、熱安定劑、螢光增白劑、防火劑、消光劑、滑劑、抗靜電劑等，用於塑膠加工、農膜、PP太空包、PU泡棉、電線電纜、紡織與日光牢度提升。光固化材料包含光起始劑、光敏劑、寡聚物、單體、光固化用添加劑、UV樹脂與客製化配方，用於UV膠、UV塗料、UV油墨、接著劑、3D列印、電子材料、隱形眼鏡與醫材相關材料。電子材料部分，公司近年切入高階銅箔基板CCL用5G／6G關鍵樹脂材料，應用於AI伺服器、高頻高速板材與M6至M8等高階基板世代，公開報導稱相關營收占比已突破或逾一成。商業模式以自有研發、合成、純化、應用配方與量產製造為核心，提供客戶客製化特用化學品與一站式解決方案；銷售以外銷為主，2023年外銷約90.51%，其中亞洲約73.84%、歐洲約12.18%、美洲約4.15%。年報揭露2021至2024年第一季無單一客戶占銷貨淨額10%以上，客戶分散。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025至2028年展望重點在產品組合升級與電子材料放量。成長動能一是AI伺服器、高速網通、5G／6G與高階PCB／CCL對低介電、高耐熱、高頻高速樹脂材料需求提升；雙鍵已公告與媒體報導指出5G／6G材料導入高階CCL市場，國內外CCL大廠採用或認證，並規劃將宜蘭廠打造為電子化學品生產基地。二是產能擴充：公開報導稱2025年第3季電子材料產能約300噸，2025年底規劃約500噸，2026年逐步擴至約1,000噸，長期全部電子材料產能目標上看2,000噸；2026年董事會亦決議現金增資與可轉債等籌資以支應財務與擴產需求。三是塑膠添加劑與光固化材料仍可受惠環保、節能、回收塑膠、UV無溶劑塗料、3D列印、阻燃樹脂、準分子膚感樹脂、數位印花與功能性紡織材料需求。2026年度營業計畫重點包含：塑膠添加劑在中國、韓國、越南、印度、歐美推廣農膜、PP太空包、PU泡棉、電線電纜等應用；光固化材料推廣大豐廠量產寡聚物，用於油墨、塗料、接著劑、3D列印、電子、隱形眼鏡；電子材料針對台灣、韓國、日本銅箔基板客戶推廣5G／6G關鍵材料，並評估5G／6G與半導體材料代工。主要風險包括中國大陸化工產能擴張造成低價競爭、原物料價格波動、環保與化學品法規趨嚴、電子材料客戶認證與放量時程不確定、擴產投資與資金成本、匯率與外銷景氣波動，以及高階CCL材料若未能持續通過M8／M9等新世代規格驗證，成長性可能低於市場預期。2027至2028年具體財務數字公司未公開，以上為依公開年報、法說與新聞推估之產業展望。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • A公司及其他大宗化學品供應商 年報揭露2023年度A公司為主要供應商，占進貨淨額15.83%，2024年第一季占12.15%；公司未揭露實名，供應一般規格大宗化學品，非可確認台股掛牌公司。
  • 環己烷甲酸供應商 主要原料之一，年報以A公司、B公司代稱，供應狀況良好；實名未揭露。
  • 苯甲酸供應商 主要原料之一，年報以C公司、D公司代稱，供應狀況良好；實名未揭露。
  • 異丁酸供應商 主要原料之一，年報以E公司、F公司代稱，供應狀況良好；實名未揭露。
  • 擴鏈劑MMEA供應商 主要原料之一，年報以G公司代稱，供應狀況良好；實名未揭露。
Downstream
  • 國內外銅箔基板CCL大廠 雙鍵5G／6G關鍵樹脂材料導入高階CCL供應鏈，公開報導稱客戶包含國內外CCL大廠與日、韓客戶；公司未揭露實名，因此不填台股代號。
  • 高階伺服器與AI供應鏈客戶 雙鍵CCL關鍵樹脂材料廣泛應用於高階伺服器市場；終端品牌與直接客戶未揭露。
  • 塑膠加工、農膜、PP太空包、PU泡棉、電線電纜業者 塑膠添加劑下游客群，用於抗氧化、耐候、光安定、抗靜電、加工改質等；單一客戶未揭露。
  • UV塗料、UV油墨、接著劑、3D列印、隱形眼鏡與電子材料業者 光固化材料下游客群，使用光起始劑、寡聚物、單體、UV樹脂與客製化配方；單一客戶未揭露。
  • 紡織與數位印花業者 數位紡織材料與水性／光固化墨水下游客群，包含紡織用日光牢度增進劑、數位印花輸出與代工開發；客戶實名未揭露。

Competitors

  • 永光化學 1711 台股上市公司；年報列為塑膠添加劑主要競爭同業之一。
  • 三晃 1721 台股上市公司；年報列為塑膠添加劑主要競爭同業之一。
  • 長興材料 1717 台股上市公司；年報列為光固化材料主要競爭同業之一。
  • 國精化學 4722 台股上櫃公司；年報列為光固化材料主要競爭同業之一。
  • 巴斯夫 德國上市全球化工公司，為塑膠添加劑與特用化學品國際競爭者；非台股掛牌。
  • 科思創 德國上市材料化學公司，於高分子材料、塗料與特用材料領域具競爭；非台股掛牌。
Sources（12）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.