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4950

金耘國際 Iron & Steel As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

steady quality, fair valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 金耘國際 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 33Quality 58Growth 76Momentum 33Chips 55

Is 金耘國際 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 55th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 2.6%.

  • Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 68th market percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 1.1% of volume (net buy).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 33.3%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.44
BearishNeutralBullish

Institutional rotation, concentration steady — bullish

  • Institutional rotation, concentration steady — bullish
  • 元大-中壢 holds 205 lots
  • sellers have 42 lots left, ~75 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -17% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 元大-中壢 has accumulated 205 lots since the start (sold 3%), now trimming.
  • Main distributor 元大證券 peaked at 26 lots, has sold 50%, 13 left, paused recently.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +0.00pp, mid holders +1, retail -0.92pp — little change.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -2 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
元大-中壢中國信託-永康富邦-台北華南永昌-小港元大-善化中國信託-嘉義
Distributing
元大證券陽信元大-新營台新-左楠永豐金-新莊合庫-基隆
Desks
own scale
康和-永和元大-六合第一金-光復華南永昌-台中
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 元大-中壢 +205
    sold 3%
  • 中國信託-永康 +131
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 富邦-台北 +87
    sold 2%
  • 華南永昌-小港 +85
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 元大-善化 +70
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 中國信託-嘉義 +55
    sold 0%

Distributing

  • 元大證券 13 left
    sold 50%· paused recently
  • 陽信 15 left
    sold 29%· paused recently
  • 元大-新營 15 left
    sold 25%· ~75 sessions to clear
  • 台新-左楠 5 left
    sold 75%· paused recently
  • 永豐金-新莊 7 left
    sold 63%· paused recently
  • 合庫-基隆 3 left
    sold 77%· paused recently

Desks

  • 康和-永和 -173
    unclassified
  • 元大-六合 -110
    unclassified
  • 第一金-光復 -100
    unclassified
  • 華南永昌-台中 -94
    unclassified
Still selling 42 lots ~75 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +150 absorbed / -15 sold buyers slightly ahead
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Mixed direction: big-holder and retail changes are not aligned.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 33.31%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

67 historical occurrences (since 2012-04-27)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 47.5%, Sample 59, Median -0.82%, Excess +1.25%, Beat mkt rate 45.8%；60-day: Win 44.1%, Sample 59, Median -3.01%, Excess -3.08%, Beat mkt rate 40.7%；120-day: Win 47.5%, Sample 59, Median -0.72%, Excess -7.68%, Beat mkt rate 42.4%

120 days after: historical avg +1.14%

20-day +1.66%
60-day +0.19%
120-day +1.14%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
47.5%
44.1%
47.5%
Sample
59
59
59
Median
-0.82%
-3.01%
-0.72%
Excess
+1.25%
-3.08%
-7.68%
Beat mkt rate
45.8%
40.7%
42.4%

Over 59 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 1.14%, lagged the market by 7.68 pts; win rate 47.5%.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

10 times historically; 60-day forward avg +13.29%, win rate 40%, beating the market by +8.19 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

21 times historically; 60-day forward avg +1.63%, win rate 50%, beating the market by -0.67 pts on average.

What does 金耘國際 do? Company profile

鋼鐵工業 上櫃

Overview

4950 為櫃買中心上櫃普通股，證券簡稱金耘國際，前身為牧東光電股份有限公司。公司成立於 2008/10/24，公開發行日 2010/05/14，興櫃日 2010/06/29，上櫃日 2012/04/27。2025 年 4 月由牧東光電更名為金耘國際，2025/06/02 起產業類別由「其他」調整為「鋼鐵工業」。公司登記地址為台南市柳營區工二路10號，營運據點含桃園、台中、台南及越南金耘據點。董事長為榮剛材料科技股份有限公司代表人王炯棻；總經理於 2026/06/12 由李郁真退休改任黃建中，黃建中原為金耘鋼鐵副總經理；發言人同日由李郁真改為黃建中。實收資本額 577,291,070 元，已發行普通股 57,729,107 股，其中含私募股 39,335,790 股；特別股 0 股。主要股東與控制關係方面，榮剛材料科技股份有限公司為母公司與主要股東，董監持股資料顯示榮剛材料科技持股約 53.83%，金耘國際亦屬台鋼集團關係企業。公司 2025 年合併營收 1,016,605 千元、營業利益 39,419 千元、歸屬母公司業主淨損 20,646 千元、EPS -0.36 元；2026 年第一季合併營收 269,171 千元、營業利益 20,985 千元、歸屬母公司業主淨利 11,500 千元、EPS 0.20 元。員工規模未在已查得公開頁面中明確揭露。

Business

公司現行定位已由早期觸控顯示與不鏽鋼刀具製造，轉向特殊合金材料通路與工業材料服務平台。公司網站說明，金耘專注於特殊合金材料通路，2024 年轉投資金耘鋼鐵並取得越南金耘經營權，服務客戶遍布台灣、大陸與越南，提供技術、材料諮詢與解決方案。產品主要來自台灣特殊鋼大廠榮剛，也協助搜尋歐、美、日、韓等料源，提供完整尺寸規格、異形材、零組件加工製造等整合服務。產品類別包括不鏽鋼、合金工具鋼、高速鋼與粉末鋼、非鐵合金、低合金、碳鋼、軸承鋼、塑模鋼等；服務項目包括材料諮詢、加工服務、批號溯源追蹤、客製化包裝、物流服務、材料失效分析與合金廢料回收。終端應用涵蓋航太、油氣與水、能源、生醫、水刀、緊固件、鍛造、沖壓、真空、刀具、螺絲、手工具與機械零件等。MoneyDJ 資料顯示 2024 年產品營收比重為不鏽鋼製品 56%、其他 44%；銷售地區比重為台灣 82%、越南 10%、大陸 5%、美國 2%。其商業模式以採購特殊鋼與不鏽鋼材料，結合裁切加工、表面處理、調質處理、物流與技術諮詢，再銷售給工業客戶為主。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025 至 2028 年展望以轉型後的特殊鋼與不鏽鋼材料通路整合為核心。成長動能包括：一、榮剛入主後，金耘國際可承接榮剛特殊鋼、不鏽鋼與高階合金材料供給，透過既有通路擴大素材銷售；二、金耘鋼鐵與越南金耘納入經營後，台灣與越南據點可支援東南亞製造業、航太、油氣、能源、生醫及機械零件客戶；三、公司公告指出短期策略為擴大不鏽鋼製品銷售與通路拓展，中長期將導入集團高階產品與技術，擴充產品與服務內容，建立完整工業材料服務體系；四、2025 年營收已較 2024 年顯著放大，2026 年第一季轉為獲利，若通路整合與營運費用控制延續，2026 至 2028 年有機會改善獲利穩定度。產業趨勢方面，高性能特殊合金在航太、能源、油氣、生醫、半導體設備、精密機械及東南亞製造供應鏈仍有長期需求；台鋼集團與榮剛既有材料能力可支撐金耘往材料服務平台發展。主要風險包括：鋼價與鎳、鉬、鉻等合金原料價格波動造成庫存與毛利風險；公司規模小、流動性低，轉型後業務仍需驗證；過去牧東期間曾有財報不實求償案件與財報申報異常紀錄，治理與投資人信任修復仍是重要議題；母公司與關係人交易比例可能提高，需關注交易條件、存貨與應收帳款；東南亞布局受匯率、地緣政治與終端產業景氣影響；2025 年仍歸屬母公司業主淨損，2026 年第一季獲利是否能全年延續仍待追蹤。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 榮剛材料科技股份有限公司 5009 母公司、主要股東與主要材料來源之一；金耘國際公司網站稱產品主要來自台灣特殊鋼大廠榮剛，公開公告亦顯示榮剛為金耘國際母公司並出售金耘鋼鐵股權予金耘國際。
  • 精剛精密科技股份有限公司 1584 台鋼／榮剛集團關係企業，金耘國際官網列為關係企業；業務涉及鈦合金、特殊鋼與精密材料，可能在特殊合金材料供應或加工能力上形成集團內互補。
  • 歐、美、日、韓特殊鋼與合金材料供應商 公司官網表示除榮剛外，也提供歐、美、日、韓等國料源搜尋；未查得具名供應商，故 stock_id 為 null。
  • 中國大陸及日本鋼鐵廠 牧東舊業務資料顯示不鏽鋼刀具時期原料包含不鏽鋼棒材、不鏽鋼板、大馬士革鋼板與澆鑄件，供應商為中國大陸及日本鋼鐵廠；目前金耘轉型後仍以不鏽鋼棒材與板材為主要採購原料之一，但未查得具名供應商。
Downstream
  • 航太產業客戶 公司官網列示產品可供航太產業使用；未揭露具名客戶。
  • 油氣與水處理產業客戶 公司官網列示產品應用於油氣與水相關產業；未揭露具名客戶。
  • 能源產業客戶 公司官網列示產品應用於能源產業；未揭露具名客戶。
  • 生醫產業客戶 公司官網列示產品可供生醫產業客戶使用；未揭露具名客戶。
  • 機械零件、緊固件、螺絲、手工具與刀具客戶 公司官網列示終端應用包含機械零件、緊固件、螺絲、手工具與刀具等；未揭露具名客戶。

Competitors

Sources（19）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.