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5519

隆大 Construction & Materials As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

strong quality, discounted valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 隆大 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 89Quality 72Growth 91Momentum 51Chips 93

Is 隆大 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Top-tier profitability.Operating margin beats ~89% of the market. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 2.2%.

  • Valuation is low.PE is in the 2th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 33th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 12.0% of volume (net buy).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 88.7%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Neutral +0.01
BearishNeutralBullish

Institutional rotation, concentration steady — neutral

  • Institutional rotation, concentration steady — neutral
  • 台灣企銀-北高雄 holds 644 lots
  • sellers have 338 lots left, ~38 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +7% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 台灣企銀-北高雄 has accumulated 644 lots since the start (sold 0%), holding.
  • Main distributor 新加坡商瑞銀 peaked at 553 lots, has sold 52%, 264 left, paused recently.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -0.71pp, mid holders -3, retail +0.71pp — little change.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -436 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
台灣企銀-北高雄永豐金-匯立兆豐證券台新-成功富邦-斗六玉山-城中
Distributing
新加坡商瑞銀美林元大-成功元大-六合台新證券元大-竹北
Desks
own scale
摩根大通臺銀-高雄富邦-高雄富邦-公益
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 台灣企銀-北高雄 +644
    sold 0%
  • 永豐金-匯立 +583
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 兆豐證券 +345
    sold 0%
  • 台新-成功 +265
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 富邦-斗六 +174
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 玉山-城中 +172
    sold 0%

Distributing

  • 新加坡商瑞銀 264 left
    sold 52%· paused recently
  • 美林 305 left
    sold 42%· paused recently
  • 元大-成功 77 left
    sold 31%· ~39 sessions to clear
  • 元大-六合 48 left
    sold 54%· paused recently
  • 台新證券 44 left
    sold 49%· paused recently
  • 元大-竹北 43 left
    sold 40%· paused recently

Desks

  • 摩根大通 -938
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 臺銀-高雄 -567
    unclassified
  • 富邦-高雄 -384
    unclassified
  • 富邦-公益 -381
    unclassified
Still selling 338 lots ~39 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +1,200 absorbed / -317 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -47 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Weak direction: big-holder share fell while retail share rose.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 88.65%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

102 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 57.6%, Sample 92, Median +0.35%, Excess -0.42%, Beat mkt rate 53.3%；60-day: Win 62%, Sample 92, Median +3.61%, Excess +1.1%, Beat mkt rate 55.4%；120-day: Win 64.1%, Sample 92, Median +6.56%, Excess +4.06%, Beat mkt rate 52.2%

120 days after: historical avg +10.63%

20-day +0.51%
60-day +4.51%
120-day +10.63%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
57.6%
62%
64.1%
Sample
92
92
92
Median
+0.35%
+3.61%
+6.56%
Excess
-0.42%
+1.1%
+4.06%
Beat mkt rate
53.3%
55.4%
52.2%

Over 92 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 10.63%, beat the market by 4.06 pts; win rate 64.1%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 584+18.3% +3.2% 59.4% -1.2%
20-40 You are here659+1.5% -13.5% 35.8% -12.3%
40-60 757+15.6% +13.7% 77.8% -3.8%
60-80 678+11% +7.1% 76.1% -0.6%
80-100 361+24.6% +32.1% 84.2% +5.4%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 6.96, at the 32.9th percentile of its own history (20-40 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
Now
+9.7%
Win rate 65.1% Excess -2.6%
475d
+8%
Win rate 75% Excess -0.6%
680d
+10.3%
Win rate 57.7% Excess -0.6%
601d
60-day momentum down
-3.6%
Win rate 20.7% Excess -7.6%
579d
+4.8%
Win rate 65.9% Excess -2.5%
495d
+11.5%
Win rate 73.9% Excess +4.2%
329d

Currently in “Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 475 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 9.7%, win rate 65.1%, lagged the market by 2.6%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

31 times historically; 60-day forward avg +3.53%, win rate 54.8%, beating the market by +0.74 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

56 times historically; 60-day forward avg +3.39%, win rate 51.8%, beating the market by -1.19 pts on average.

What does 隆大 do? Company profile

建材營造業／營建 台灣證券交易所上市

Overview

隆大營建事業股份有限公司，股票代號5519，為台灣證券交易所上市普通股。公司成立於1982年4月30日，1999年10月7日上櫃，2014年2月10日上市；總部位於高雄市前鎮區民權二路380號18樓之1。董事長為陳武聰，總經理為洪茂源；實收資本額為新台幣2,191,971,800元，已發行普通股219,197,180股。依2024年年報，截至2025年3月31日員工94人；主要股東包括大進投資19.06%、大虹投資9.44%、新旺投資3.80%、許名誼3.02%、一功營造3.00%、有力投資1.74%、宏碁建設1.72%、新威投資1.09%、陳武聰1.08%、一功投資1.06%，前十名合計45.01%。公司2025年法說會揭露2025年度營業收入54.52億元、稅後淨利10.88億元、EPS 4.96元、毛利率33%、現金股利3.30元；2024年度年報則揭露2024年營收62.51億元、EPS 3.90元。

Business

隆大核心定位為建築專業營造公司，主要業務為不動產開發與建築工程承攬，涵蓋集合住宅、辦公大樓、廠房、學校、醫院、棒球場、不動產租賃及一般旅館業務。2024年主要產品營收比重為建屋銷售收入94.35%、營造工程收入4.99%、租賃收入0.25%、其他收入0.41%，顯示營運以自地自建或合建住宅開發銷售為主，營造承攬為輔。建設業務推案區域以大高雄為核心，並逐步延伸至北部、東部；產品定位偏向首購與自住需求，透過土地開發、產品企劃、規劃設計、行銷、施工、交屋與售後服務完成價值鏈。營造業務採工程承攬模式，主要承攬民間工程與公共工程，收入認列依工程進度或完工百分比；2024年年報列示承攬案包括裕鐵鍍四廠相關工程、宏碁建設七賢案、吳公館新建工程與屏東縣立國際棒球場工程等。2026年3月法說會揭露銷售中成屋包括鳳凰天畝III、鳳凰Villa、鳳凰天畝V、鳳凰悅、鳳凰萃、鳳凰橋科ONE，合計預計總銷122億元、990戶。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025至2028年展望以既有成屋去化、興建中案源、工程承攬進度與高雄區域需求為主要驅動。2026年3月法說會顯示，成屋銷售案合計總銷122億元，其中鳳凰天畝III、鳳凰Villa、鳳凰天畝V、鳳凰悅、鳳凰萃、鳳凰橋科ONE為可銷售案源；預估推案合計149億元、776戶，包括楠梓高昌段8億元預計2027年完工、前金後金段33億元預計2028年完工、岡山大公段20億元預計2028年完工、鳳山埤頂段南北基地合計23億元預計2029年完工、前鎮經貿段一期65億元預計2030年完工。營造端方面，裕鐵相關工程預計2026年完工，屏東國際棒球場工程預計2028年完工，期間可依完工進度貢獻營收。中長期動能包括高雄亞洲新灣區、橋頭科學園區、楠梓半導體聚落、捷運黃線與紅線延伸、仁武產業園區等區域建設帶動居住與廠辦需求；公司策略為分散區域、區域深耕、採預售或先建後售、合建合資與JV合作。主要風險包括央行選擇性信用管制與房市交易降溫、利率與貸款條件收緊、房價負擔能力下降、缺工、工資與鋼鐵水泥等建材成本上升、碳費推升營建成本、工程進度延宕、公共工程競爭激烈及個案銷售率波動。2025年年報與法說會內容可支持2025至2028年案源與工程進度，但2027至2028之後營收認列仍取決於銷售、完工與交屋時程，屬前瞻性估計。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 中國石油化學工業開發股份有限公司 1314 2024年年報揭露之2024年度占進貨總額10%以上供應商，占進貨淨額41.74%；實際交易性質可能與土地或工程發包／材料採購相關，年報未細分。
  • 如發開發股份有限公司 2024年年報揭露之2023年度占進貨總額10%以上供應商，占進貨淨額16.75%；未確認為台股上市櫃公司。
  • 工程顧問公司與建築師 營建業上游，提供建築、橋樑、道路、廠房工程設計、技術工法研發與監造；多為專業服務供應商，未特定單一上市櫃公司。
  • 鋼鐵、水泥、砂石、預拌混凝土、機電與其他建材供應商 營建工程主要原料包括鋼筋、鋼骨、水泥、混凝土、砂石、電梯、消防、水電、磁磚、玻璃、衛浴、廚具、門窗等；公司年報表示多由公司自行採購並向多家廠商詢價。
Downstream
  • 一般購屋自住及換屋客戶 建屋銷售主要客群，2024年建屋銷售收入占營收94.35%；客戶多為不特定自然人或公司行號，重複性不高。
  • 裕鐵企業股份有限公司 民間工程業主，隆大承攬裕鐵鍍四廠基礎工程、辦公室宿舍、公用槽區、裁剪廠等工程；未確認為台股上市櫃公司。
  • 屏東縣政府／屏東縣立國際棒球場工程業主 公共工程下游客戶，屏東國際棒球場為隆大營造承攬案之一，預計至2028年前後依工程進度認列。
  • 宏碁建設股份有限公司 民間工程業主，年報列示宏碁建設七賢案集合住宅新建工程；同時為隆大主要股東之一，未確認為台股上市櫃公司。

Competitors

  • 京城建設 2524 高雄在地上市建商，與隆大在高雄住宅開發與土地取得市場具區域競爭關係。
  • 華友聯開發 1436 上市建材營造公司，高雄與南部住宅開發市場同業。
  • 聯上發 2537 上市建材營造公司，具高雄與全台住宅開發案源，為區域建商競爭者。
  • 興富發 2542 大型上市建商，全台推案規模大，於高雄住宅市場亦具競爭力。
  • 遠雄建設 5522 大型上市建商，與隆大在住宅與商用不動產開發市場競爭。
  • 達欣工程 2535 上市營造工程公司，於建築工程承攬與公共／民間工程標案市場競爭。
  • 根基營造 2546 上市營造公司，於營造承攬、建築與公共工程市場競爭。
  • 潤弘精密工程事業 2597 上市營造工程公司，具工程技術與建築承攬能力，屬營造端競爭者。
Sources（10）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.