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5907

大洋-KY Trading & Retail As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

quality needs a look, premium valuation.

1 active signal
Foreign buy
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 大洋-KY to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 40Quality 15Growth 38Momentum 11Chips 90

Is 大洋-KY a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Weak profitability.Operating margin is in the 25th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ -5.2%.

  • Valuation is high.PE is in the 93th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 89th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 10.3% of volume (net buy).

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Foreign net buying 5 straight days are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.43
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 凱基-長庚 holds 1,727 lots
  • sellers have 237 lots left, ~45 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -13% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 凱基-長庚 has accumulated 1,727 lots since the start (sold 21%), now trimming.
  • Main distributor 宏遠-高雄 peaked at 240 lots, has sold 80%, 49 left, ~45 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +0.73pp, mid holders +0, retail -0.52pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -19 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
凱基-長庚永豐金-大園凱基-台北富邦-羅東美商高盛群益金鼎-古亭
Distributing
宏遠-高雄國泰-敦南華南永昌-林口台新高橋-內壢元大證券
Desks
own scale
高橋兆豐-城中兆豐-忠孝元富-城東
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 凱基-長庚 +1,727
    sold 21%
  • 永豐金-大園 +290
    sold 1%· still adding
  • 凱基-台北 +244
    sold 7%· still adding
  • 富邦-羅東 +209
    sold 5%
  • 美商高盛 +209
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 群益金鼎-古亭 +197
    sold 0%· still adding

Distributing

  • 宏遠-高雄 49 left
    sold 80%· ~45 sessions to clear
  • 國泰-敦南 74 left
    sold 43%· paused recently
  • 華南永昌-林口 87 left
    sold 28%· paused recently
  • 台新 13 left
    sold 89%· ~1 sessions to clear
  • 高橋-內壢 35 left
    sold 56%· ~8 sessions to clear
  • 元大證券 55 left
    sold 27%· paused recently

Desks

  • 高橋 -625
    unclassified
  • 兆豐-城中 -571
    unclassified
  • 兆豐-忠孝 -507
    unclassified
  • 元富-城東 -356
    unclassified
Still selling 237 lots ~45 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +1,194 absorbed / -329 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -17 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Active · now 6%

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

50 historical occurrences (since 2012-09-19)
Average forward return after Foreign net buying for 5 straight days。20-day: Win 34.7%, Sample 49, Median -2.03%, Excess -3.17%, Beat mkt rate 28.6%；60-day: Win 28.6%, Sample 49, Median -5.65%, Excess -8.78%, Beat mkt rate 22.4%；120-day: Win 30.6%, Sample 49, Median -7.51%, Excess -15.15%, Beat mkt rate 18.4%

120 days after: historical avg -5.16%

20-day -1.8%
60-day -3.69%
120-day -5.16%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
34.7%
28.6%
30.6%
Sample
49
49
49
Median
-2.03%
-5.65%
-7.51%
Excess
-3.17%
-8.78%
-15.15%
Beat mkt rate
28.6%
22.4%
18.4%

Over 49 occurrences, 120-day forward avg declined 5.16%, lagged the market by 15.15 pts; win rate 30.6%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 344-6.4% -5.9% 38.7% -32.6%
20-40 117-8.5% -5.8% 7.7% -30.4%
40-60 267-3.5% -16.8% 25.5% -17.8%
60-80 223+17.8% +9.8% 78.5% +2%
80-100 You are here300+4.1% -3.8% 37% -18.5%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 76.36, at the 88.8th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
-7.7%
Win rate 27.2% Excess -14.9%
169d
-0.1%
Win rate 40.4% Excess -4.2%
104d
+4.2%
Win rate 44.4% Excess -5.7%
311d
60-day momentum down
-2.2%
Win rate 57.4% Excess -14%
244d
-10%
Win rate 25.4% Excess -15%
264d
Now
+6.5%
Win rate 51.3% Excess -7.5%
279d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum down”: across 279 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 6.5%, win rate 51.3%, lagged the market by 7.5%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

12 times historically; 60-day forward avg -9.75%, win rate 8.3%, beating the market by -11.48 pts on average.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Pending

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

11 times historically; 60-day forward avg +1.74%, win rate 54.5%, beating the market by -2.38 pts on average.

What does 大洋-KY do? Company profile

貿易百貨／零售通路 台灣證券交易所上市

Overview

5907 對應證券為大洋-KY，係台灣證券交易所上市之普通股，產業別為貿易百貨。公司英文全名為 Grand Ocean Retail Group Limited，屬 KY 開曼註冊公司；台股資料顯示成立日期為 2006/08/23，公開發行日期為 2012/01/17，上市掛牌日期為 2012/06/06，實收資本額新臺幣 1,955,310,000 元，已發行普通股 195,531,000 股。2025 年報另說明營運集團於 2002 年 5 月設立於中國大連，首間百貨據點福州中城大洋百貨於 2002 年 9 月成立。公司註冊地址為開曼群島 P.O. Box 31119 Grand Pavilion, Hibiscus Way, 802 West Bay Road, Grand Cayman, KY1-1205 Cayman Islands；年報揭露營運總部地址為中國遼寧省大連市西崗區樂業街 1 號，大陸分公司地址為中國上海市黃浦區南京西路 338 號上海天安中心大廈 27 樓 03-06 單元，台灣股務/聯絡地址常見揭露為台北市大安區復興南路二段 237 號 14 樓。董事長為 LEE ENG LEONG，總經理為黃清海；年報指出原董事長郭人豪於 2025/12/26 請辭，2025/12/30 臨時董事會推舉 LEE ENG LEONG 為董事長。2025 年底員工數約 830 人，2026/05/01 年報刊印日約 808 人。主要股東依 2025 年報前十大股東資訊包括兆豐國際商業銀行受託保管益航有限公司-巴拿馬投資專戶約 27.41%、Trinity Gold Limited 約 23.41%、益航股份有限公司約 5.11%、中國信託商銀受大洋商業集團控股員工持股會信託財產約 1.49%，以及若干自然人股東；法人股東中 First Steamship S.A. 與益航股份有限公司具母子公司關係。

Business

大洋-KY 為中國大陸百貨零售通路集團，透過大洋晶典商業集團等子公司經營百貨、購物、休閒、娛樂、餐飲與商業場景服務，採「一百貨一公司」模式在各城市布局。截至 2025 年報刊印日，集團於上海、福州、南京、泉州、武漢、衡陽、宜昌、合肥、十堰等 9 個城市設有 14 家百貨據點正式營運，包含福州嘉瑞興地下街業務；主要區域為福建、江蘇、安徽、湖北、湖南，並以武漢為華中片區、南京為華東片區、福州為華南片區之核心。營收地區 100% 來自亞洲中國大陸。2025 年合併營業收入為新臺幣 2,751,254 千元，較 2024 年 3,234,915 千元衰退 14.95%；2025 年稅後淨損新臺幣 890,325 千元，EPS -4.55 元。2025 年營收結構依主要產品別為專櫃聯營 663,259 千元、專櫃直營 447,915 千元、租金及其他 1,640,080 千元，合計 2,751,254 千元，租金及其他約占 59.61%，專櫃聯營約占 24.11%，專櫃直營約占 16.28%。銷售商品涵蓋服飾、珠寶、化妝品、鞋類、運動用品、家用與其他百貨零售商品；商業模式包括聯營扣點、自營零售、租賃櫃位、商場管理服務、策展活動及線上線下 OMO 導流。公司指出每個百貨據點銷售品牌數可達 200 至 600 個，進貨主要來自代理商或品牌業者，最大進貨商未達 10%，無主要供應商集中；主要銷貨對象為一般消費者，無主要銷貨客戶集中。2025 年公司透過招商補位、新增體驗業態、二次元、親子、健身、餐飲、小吃、美團合作及自播活動拉動客流，全年總客流約 8,052 萬人次，年增 21.4%；2025 年有消費記錄會員約 34.6 萬人。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025 年實績顯示公司仍處於中國消費低迷與百貨業轉型壓力中：營收年減 14.95%，稅後淨損擴大至新臺幣 890,325 千元，主要受中國宏觀環境不佳、人民消費意願保守、品牌撤櫃及部分商標權減損等因素影響。不過公司亦揭露全年新增品牌櫃位 363 個、新增招商面積 5.68 萬平方公尺、空櫃面積減少 6,968 平方公尺、空鋪率降至 11.1%，且客流因體驗業態增加而成長。2026 年公司經營主題為「以平台為抓手，多元融合智匯大洋；以客戶為中心，潮酷雅致悅享晶典」，重點策略包括會員精細化營運、將有消費會員數由 34.6 萬人提升至 40 萬人、空櫃面積由 2025 年底 3.7 萬平方公尺縮減至 2 萬平方公尺、重點招商黃金珠寶、國貨化妝品與服飾業態、複製上海千樹店與「本來」品牌的加盟合作模式、投入人民幣 543 萬元進行各店調改整修、強化績效考核及人才培養。中長期至 2027-2028 年，年報未提供具體財務預測或量化展店目標；可確認的方向是深耕既有市場、擴大經營邊界、尋找新市場與新模式、持續深化會員制度、發展線上線下 OMO、使用微信小程式、美團、抖音、小紅書等數位通路，並以 AI 大數據分析與自動化行銷工具提升會員經營效率。產業趨勢方面，傳統百貨面臨電商、即時零售、購物中心與體驗型商業競爭，未來需求偏向去百貨化、餐飲娛樂與社交體驗、社群決策、私域會員、差異化品牌組合、自營與獨家企劃能力。主要風險包括中國消費復甦慢於預期、品牌撤櫃與同質化競爭、租金與人事成本壓力、部分門店持續虧損、訴訟及閉店補償、利率風險、資安風險、數位轉型投入成效不確定、百貨商品力不足及對中國政策與景氣循環高度敏感。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 各品牌代理商與品牌業者 主要進貨與專櫃合作來源；公司年報指出各據點品牌數約 200 至 600 個，單一供應商進貨未達 10%，未揭露主要供應商名單。
  • 商場物業出租方與開發商 提供百貨據點租賃物業，包含中國各地業主與商業地產公司；部分閉店與租約提前解除引發訴訟，例如重慶正升置業、武漢商貿國有控股集團等均非台股掛牌。
  • 美團、抖音、小紅書、微信小程式等數位平台 用於本地生活導流、線上線下行銷、會員經營與私域流量；美團、騰訊等屬境外上市或非台股掛牌，字節跳動、小紅書未於台灣上市櫃。
Downstream
  • 中國大陸一般消費者與會員 主要銷貨對象；公司年報明示百貨零售以一般消費者為主，無主要銷貨客戶，2025 年有消費記錄會員約 34.6 萬人。
  • 專櫃品牌與租賃商戶 下游合作對象包含聯營專櫃、租賃櫃位、餐飲與體驗業態商戶；多為品牌商、代理商或地方商戶，未揭露台股上市櫃主要客戶。

Competitors

  • 遠東百貨 2903 台股上市百貨同業；以台灣百貨零售為主，與大洋-KY同屬貿易百貨/百貨零售概念，但營運市場不同。
  • 統領 2910 台股上市百貨/商場通路同業，可作為台灣百貨零售比較對象。
  • 欣欣 2901 台股上市百貨與影城相關營運公司，規模與地域不同，屬廣義百貨零售同業。
  • 新光三越 台灣大型百貨業者，未於台股上市櫃。
  • 王府井集團 中國大陸百貨零售同業，上海證券交易所上市，非台股掛牌。
  • 百盛商業集團 中國百貨零售同業，香港上市或境外資本市場相關公司，非台股掛牌。
  • 銀泰百貨 中國百貨/商業零售同業，阿里系零售資產，非台股掛牌。
  • 大商股份 中國大陸百貨零售同業，上海證券交易所上市，非台股掛牌。
Sources（12）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.