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6182

合晶 Semiconductor As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

quality needs a look, premium valuation.

1 active signal
252d high
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 合晶 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 10Quality 28Growth 53Momentum 99Chips 74

Is 合晶 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Weak profitability.Operating margin is in the 30th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 0.1%.

  • Valuation is high.PE is in the 100th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 100th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 4.3% of volume (net buy).

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as 252-day price high are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.89
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 摩根大通 holds 22,525 lots
  • sellers have 20,350 lots left, ~1705 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +193% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 摩根大通 has accumulated 22,525 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 台灣摩根士丹利 peaked at 13,852 lots, has sold 26%, 10,199 left, ~46 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +18.54pp, mid holders +22, retail -18.06pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -1,597 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
摩根大通富邦證券元大證券凱基-台北統一美商高盛
Distributing
台灣摩根士丹利新加坡商瑞銀凱基-松山統一-士林元大-松江富邦-板橋
Desks
own scale
群益金鼎凱基凱基-三重富邦-中壢
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 摩根大通 +22,525
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 富邦證券 +20,242
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 元大證券 +13,723
    sold 24%· still adding
  • 凱基-台北 +8,992
    sold 20%
  • 統一 +8,753
    sold 22%
  • 美商高盛 +8,597
    sold 19%

Distributing

  • 台灣摩根士丹利 10,199 left
    sold 26%· ~46 sessions to clear
  • 新加坡商瑞銀 5,190 left
    sold 36%· ~22 sessions to clear
  • 凱基-松山 3,580 left
    sold 32%· ~1705 sessions to clear
  • 統一-士林 360 left
    sold 82%· ~3 sessions to clear
  • 元大-松江 780 left
    sold 61%· paused recently
  • 富邦-板橋 1,354 left
    sold 26%· paused recently

Desks

  • 群益金鼎 -4,612
    unclassified
  • 凱基 -3,521
    unclassified
  • 凱基-三重 -2,476
    unclassified
  • 富邦-中壢 -1,719
    unclassified
Still selling 20,350 lots ~1705 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +42,896 absorbed / -7,005 sold buyers slightly ahead
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

252-day price high (breakout)

Active

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

23 historical occurrences (since 2009-12-09)
Average forward return after 252-day price high (breakout)。20-day: Win 45.5%, Sample 22, Median -2.09%, Excess -0.37%, Beat mkt rate 40.9%；60-day: Win 57.1%, Sample 21, Median +6.77%, Excess +5.35%, Beat mkt rate 47.6%；120-day: Win 70%, Sample 20, Median +14.5%, Excess +7%, Beat mkt rate 50%

120 days after: historical avg +17.25%

20-day +1.46%
60-day +11.1%
120-day +17.25%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
45.5%
57.1%
70%
Sample
22
21
20
Median
-2.09%
+6.77%
+14.5%
Excess
-0.37%
+5.35%
+7%
Beat mkt rate
40.9%
47.6%
50%

Over 20 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 17.25%, beat the market by 7 pts; win rate 70%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 124+12.4% +9.5% 82.3% -13.1%
20-40 321+4.5% -0.6% 48.3% -24.8%
40-60 172-12.8% -24.7% 16.3% -42.3%
60-80 251+10.2% -26.5% 41.8% -12.9%
80-100 You are here447+22.5% +0.9% 51% +7.1%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 2850.0, at the 100.0th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
+0.5%
Win rate 52.4% Excess -6.4%
187d
-3.6%
Win rate 21.8% Excess -25%
101d
Now
+15.4%
Win rate 74.4% Excess +8%
347d
60-day momentum down
+5.2%
Win rate 64.4% Excess -6.4%
180d
-8.9%
Win rate 23.1% Excess -17.7%
251d
+20.7%
Win rate 35.5% Excess +0.4%
369d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 347 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 15.4%, win rate 74.4%, beat the market by 8%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Pending

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

99 times historically; 60-day forward avg +2.53%, win rate 42.9%, beating the market by +1.15 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

57 times historically; 60-day forward avg +6.5%, win rate 49.1%, beating the market by +0.51 pts on average.

What does 合晶 do? Company profile

半導體業；半導體矽晶圓材料、拋光矽晶圓、磊晶矽晶圓、SOI、GaN 磊晶片 櫃買中心上櫃

Overview

合晶科技成立於1997年7月，股票代號6182，2002年5月於櫃買中心上櫃，為營運公司普通股。總部與龍潭廠位於桃園市龍潭科學園區龍園一路100號，另有楊梅廠、二林廠籌備/新廠，以及中國大陸上海、鄭州、揚州等轉投資生產據點。董事長為焦平海，總經理兼發言人為張憲元。公司官網公司概況揭露資本額為新台幣5,737,967,300元、普通股573,796,730股（最後更新日2025-12-23）；Yahoo/公開資訊系統資料時間2026-01-20則列股本5,736,383,300元、普通股573,638,330股，差異應與限制員工權利新股註銷/股本變動時點有關。2025年報列截至2026-04-30從業員工合計2,411人，其中管理792人、研發技術515人、作業1,104人，平均年歲39.1歲、平均服務年資5.6年。2025年報列2026-04-20前十大股東包括焦平海12,646,405股、持股2.20%；花旗受託保管波露寧新興市場基金投資專戶6,441,923股、1.12%；華榮電線電纜5,951,040股、1.04%；其餘多為外資保管專戶及英屬維京群島商吉興國際等，單一股東持股比例皆低於3%。公司沿革稱創始團隊來自美國矽谷及台灣半導體產業，目前為全球前十大半導體矽晶圓材料供應商之一；2024年子公司上海合晶硅材料於上海證交所科創板IPO。

Business

合晶主要從事半導體矽晶材料、半導體磊晶材料及化合物半導體材料之研發、設計、製造與銷售，並提供相關產品技術諮詢、服務與進出口貿易。2025年報揭露114年度營收結構為半導體產品新台幣9,757,317仟元、占99.39%，其他59,925仟元、占0.61%，合計9,817,242仟元。主要產品包含半導體矽晶棒、半導體矽晶圓（單面拋光片與雙面拋光片）、半導體磊晶片、SOI晶片與GaN磊晶片。官網產品頁說明產品涵蓋12吋含以下各種摻質的拋光晶圓、磊晶晶圓、雙拋晶圓、研磨晶圓、蝕刻晶圓、超薄晶圓及SOI晶圓，並以長晶至磊晶的整合技術提供客製化材料。終端應用包括MEMS、功率MOSFET、PMIC、BJT、二極體、閘流體、IGBT、CoolMOS、Superjunction、CIS影像感測器、LED driver、標準邏輯IC、ASIC與RF元件。商業模式為自有品牌Wafer Works之矽晶圓材料供應商，銷售給晶圓代工廠、IDM、功率元件與類比IC供應鏈；年報主要客戶採匿名揭露，113年度客戶A占銷貨16.57%，114年度客戶A占16.31%，115年第一季客戶B占12.18%，其餘客戶分散。主要原料為矽多晶料、研磨粉與拋光漿、坩堝，年報僅揭露供應商為國際知名大廠且供應狀況良好，未具名。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025至2028年展望重點在12吋矽晶圓、先進封裝材料、AI/HPC、功率半導體、SOI與GaN。2025年報指出全球矽晶圓2025年出貨量為12,973百萬平方英吋、年增5.8%，預期2026年起半導體矽晶圓出貨面積可望持續成長；12吋晶圓受惠先進邏輯與HBM需求，成為主要成長動能。合晶短期計畫為積極擴充12吋產能，龍潭廠12吋產能目標於2026年4月達40K/M；二林廠與鄭州廠於2026年陸續展開12吋矽晶圓送樣，並配合客戶需求啟動新產品專案；二林廠先進拋光片隨驗證推進啟動量產。長期計畫為走向AI與次世代半導體材料，包含8吋GaN磊晶片切入AI伺服器電源管理、大尺寸方型晶圓與SiC載板切入AI晶片先進封裝與散熱瓶頸、SOI技術切入矽光子/次世代光通訊。官網2026-05-08新聞稱二林新廠已於2026-04-30產出首根12吋矽晶圓晶棒，標誌二林廠進入營運生產階段；2026-06-15媒體報導合晶310mm x 310mm方型矽晶圓已進入客戶驗證，鎖定AI、HPC與先進封裝需求。主要風險包括半導體循環與客戶需求快速變動、交期縮短、地緣政治與區域貿易衝突、少量多樣造成生產效率限制、產品組合/利率/製造成本壓抑毛利率、中國大陸新競爭者加入、12吋新產能稼動與客戶驗證進度不確定、資本支出與折舊壓力。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 國際知名多晶矽供應商 供應主要原料矽多晶料；合晶2025年報僅揭露為國際知名大廠、供應狀況良好，未具名。
  • 國際知名研磨粉與拋光漿供應商 供應晶圓研磨、拋光製程材料；年報未具名，非可確認台股掛牌公司。
  • 國際知名坩堝供應商 供應長晶用坩堝；年報未具名，非可確認台股掛牌公司。
  • Wacker Chemie 產業資料列為全球多晶矽重要供應商之一；德國上市公司，非台股，未能確認為合晶直接供應商。
  • Hemlock Semiconductor 產業資料列為全球多晶矽重要供應商之一；未上市/非台股，未能確認為合晶直接供應商。
  • REC Silicon 產業資料列為全球多晶矽供應商之一；挪威/海外公司，非台股，未能確認為合晶直接供應商。
Downstream
  • 台積電 2330 晶圓代工下游客戶類型；MoneyDJ產業資料列為合晶拋光矽晶圓客戶之一，但合晶年報主要客戶採匿名揭露，未具名確認。
  • 聯電 2303 晶圓代工下游客戶類型；MoneyDJ產業資料列為合晶拋光矽晶圓客戶之一，但合晶年報主要客戶採匿名揭露，未具名確認。
  • 世界先進 5347 晶圓代工下游客戶類型；MoneyDJ產業資料列為合晶拋光矽晶圓客戶之一，但合晶年報主要客戶採匿名揭露，未具名確認。
  • 國際IDM與晶圓代工大廠 年報稱合晶與國際整合元件製造商及專業代工廠維持策略夥伴關係，銷售足跡遍及美國、歐洲、亞洲與大中華區；公司未公開具名。
  • 功率元件與類比IC供應鏈 下游應用包括電源管理IC、分離式功率元件、IGBT、CIS、RF與標準邏輯IC等；具體客戶多未公開。
  • 先進封裝與AI/HPC材料客戶 方型矽晶圓、SiC載板、SOI與GaN產品鎖定AI晶片、HPC、矽光子與先進封裝需求；截至2026-06-17多屬驗證或布局階段，客戶未具名。

Competitors

  • 環球晶圓 6488 台股上櫃矽晶圓大廠，全球主要矽晶圓供應商之一，12吋及多尺寸產品線完整，為合晶主要台灣同業。
  • 台勝科 3532 台股上市矽晶圓廠，由台塑與日本SUMCO相關體系合資背景，產品涵蓋8吋與12吋矽晶圓，為台灣主要同業。
  • 中美矽晶 5483 台股上櫃公司，為環球晶母公司及矽材料/半導體投資控股平台，產業鏈定位與合晶部分重疊。
  • 嘉晶電子 3016 台股上市磊晶與化合物半導體相關廠商，與合晶在磊晶、SOI或特殊晶圓材料領域具部分競合。
  • Shin-Etsu Handotai／信越半導體 日本信越化學旗下全球矽晶圓龍頭，非台股掛牌。
  • SUMCO 日本大型矽晶圓供應商，非台股掛牌。
  • Siltronic 德國大型矽晶圓供應商，非台股掛牌。
  • SK Siltron 韓國大型矽晶圓供應商，非台股掛牌。
  • 上海硅產業／滬硅產業 中國大陸科創板矽晶圓供應商，非台股；中國本土供應鏈崛起為合晶年報列示競爭風險之一。
Sources（11）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.