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6488

環球晶 Semiconductor As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

steady quality, premium valuation.

1 active signal
252d high
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 環球晶 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 20Quality 58Growth 28Momentum 97Chips 52

Is 環球晶 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 64th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 2.0%.

  • Valuation is high.PE is in the 83th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 95th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 0.6% of volume (net buy).

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as 252-day price high are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.71
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 摩根大通 holds 6,769 lots
  • sellers have 10,261 lots left, ~152 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +120% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 摩根大通 has accumulated 6,769 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 台灣摩根士丹利 peaked at 5,852 lots, has sold 69%, 1,792 left, ~102 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +2.84pp, mid holders +22, retail -4.67pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -140 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
摩根大通元大證券港商麥格理富邦證券致和證券第一金
Distributing
台灣摩根士丹利美商高盛國泰證券美林凱基花旗環球
Desks
own scale
合庫證券兆豐證券香港上海匯豐富邦-台北
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 摩根大通 +6,769
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 元大證券 +5,827
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 港商麥格理 +5,150
    sold 20%
  • 富邦證券 +4,740
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 致和證券 +1,022
    sold 0%
  • 第一金 +852
    sold 2%

Distributing

  • 台灣摩根士丹利 1,792 left
    sold 69%· ~102 sessions to clear
  • 美商高盛 2,842 left
    sold 25%· ~50 sessions to clear
  • 國泰證券 2,372 left
    sold 32%· ~99 sessions to clear
  • 美林 1,289 left
    sold 36%· paused recently
  • 凱基 1,171 left
    sold 31%· paused recently
  • 花旗環球 223 left
    sold 86%· paused recently

Desks

  • 合庫證券 -2,822
    unclassified
  • 兆豐證券 -2,080
    unclassified
  • 香港上海匯豐 -1,633
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 富邦-台北 -994
    unclassified
Still selling 10,261 lots ~152 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +5,495 absorbed / -3,183 sold buyers slightly ahead
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

252-day price high (breakout)

Active

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

24 historical occurrences (since 2016-11-01)
Average forward return after 252-day price high (breakout)。20-day: Win 60.9%, Sample 23, Median +3.39%, Excess +4.64%, Beat mkt rate 52.2%；60-day: Win 63.6%, Sample 22, Median +5.29%, Excess +7.89%, Beat mkt rate 54.5%；120-day: Win 77.3%, Sample 22, Median +13.22%, Excess +16.6%, Beat mkt rate 63.6%

120 days after: historical avg +27.03%

20-day +6.46%
60-day +11.99%
120-day +27.03%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
60.9%
63.6%
77.3%
Sample
23
22
22
Median
+3.39%
+5.29%
+13.22%
Excess
+4.64%
+7.89%
+16.6%
Beat mkt rate
52.2%
54.5%
63.6%

Over 22 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 27.03%, beat the market by 16.6 pts; win rate 77.3%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 434+25.9% +24% 86.2% +0.6%
20-40 350+16.4% +8.3% 56.3% -12.1%
40-60 474+39.4% +21.8% 71.7% +11.7%
60-80 355-5.4% -27.1% 30.4% -15.3%
80-100 You are here0Insufficient data

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 67.86, at the 94.7th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
+7.6%
Win rate 69.3% Excess -2.3%
332d
+28.3%
Win rate 65.8% Excess +10.8%
284d
Now
+13%
Win rate 56.9% Excess -3.5%
281d
60-day momentum down
+6.8%
Win rate 67.9% Excess -5.6%
336d
+3.4%
Win rate 46.6% Excess -3.7%
466d
+8.2%
Win rate 23.5% Excess -0.5%
34d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 281 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 13%, win rate 56.9%, lagged the market by 3.5%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Pending

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

28 times historically; 60-day forward avg +20.93%, win rate 75%, beating the market by +17.38 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

43 times historically; 60-day forward avg +14.35%, win rate 68.3%, beating the market by +9.54 pts on average.

What does 環球晶 do? Company profile

半導體業；半導體矽晶圓材料 上櫃（櫃買中心 TPEX）

Overview

環球晶圓股份有限公司為台灣上櫃普通股，證券代號6488，中文簡稱環球晶，英文名稱GlobalWafers Co., Ltd.，主要從事半導體晶棒與晶圓之研發、設計、製造與銷售。公司成立於2011年10月18日，係由中美矽晶製品股份有限公司（5483）半導體事業分割而來，總部位於新竹科學園區新竹市工業東二路8號。掛牌日期為2015年9月25日，市場別為上櫃。董事長為徐秀蘭（Doris Hsu），總經理為Mark England。實收資本額新台幣4,781,137,250元，已發行普通股478,113,725股。主要股東與集團關係方面，中美晶為母公司與主要法人股東，公開第三方資料顯示中美晶持股約46.64%；Yahoo股市揭露董監持股比例為46.96%。公司自稱為台灣最大、全球第三大、最大非日系半導體矽晶圓製造商，全球營運據點涵蓋台灣、中國、美國、日本、丹麥、韓國、義大利、馬來西亞、新加坡等9國18處生產據點。員工規模方面，Morningstar/PitchBook等第三方資料估計截至2026年3月31日合併員工逾7,084人；台灣本公司非主管職員工薪資揭露人數與合併人數口徑不同，故此處以合併估計值列示並於notes標示。

Business

環球晶的核心業務是半導體矽晶圓材料，產品涵蓋3吋至12吋矽晶圓，具備從晶棒長晶、切片、蝕刻、擴散、拋光、退火到磊晶的完整製程。主要產品包括拋光晶圓、磊晶晶圓、擴散晶圓、退火晶圓、SOI絕緣層覆矽晶圓、FZ區熔晶圓、矽晶棒及化合物晶圓；近年亦布局GaN、SiC、SOI、矽光子與高值化特殊晶圓。應用領域包括先進邏輯與晶圓代工、記憶體、電源管理IC、類比元件、車用功率元件、工業控制、資訊通訊、MEMS感測器、RF、矽光子、先進封裝與高效能運算。商業模式以全球多據點製造、長期供貨與客戶認證為主，矽晶圓屬半導體前段製造關鍵材料，客戶認證期長、轉換成本高，通常與晶圓代工、IDM、記憶體與類比/功率半導體大廠維持長期供應關係。營收結構方面，2025年全年合併營收為新台幣60,598百萬元，年減3.2%；2025年上半年合併財報揭露半導體部門外部收入為新台幣31,523,771千元，電廠部門外部收入為78,660千元，半導體部門占比約99.75%，電廠與其他占比極低。第三方產業資料指出其主要客戶包括台積電、聯電、三星、英特爾、美光、NXP、Infineon、STMicroelectronics、Texas Instruments、GlobalFoundries等；個別客戶銷售金額與占比未在公開資料完整揭露。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025至2028年展望以「矽晶圓循環復甦加結構性AI需求」為主軸。2025年公司營收約新台幣605.98億元，仍受客戶庫存調整、成熟製程復甦不均、新廠折舊與爬坡成本影響，毛利率與營益率較2023高峰下滑；但2025下半年至2026年初，公司法說資料指出矽晶圓出貨已自2025年初起穩定並逐步回升，客戶庫存天數仍在正常化中。2026年第一季營收為新台幣139.85億元，季減3.6%、年減10.3%，毛利率20.8%、營益率10.5%、EPS 3.97元；管理層簡報強調AI、高效能運算、記憶體、先進封裝、車用電動化與軟體定義車提升單位含矽量，是中長期支撐。成長動能包括：一、12吋晶圓需求由AI、先進製程、記憶體與先進封裝推升，既有12吋產線除新增產能爬坡外維持高稼動，公司預期12吋產品貢獻占比由約五成提升至接近三分之二；二、美國德州GlobalWafers America 12吋新廠於2025年5月正式開業，且公司與美國商務部簽署CHIPS法案補助協議，最高可獲4.06億美元補助，有助美國在地供應鏈；三、義大利Novara FAB300於2025年10月啟用，強化歐洲300mm一貫化晶圓產能；四、日本、義大利、美國密蘇里與德州新產線陸續通過車規IATF 16949或進入客戶認證，有望在2026至2028年逐步貢獻；五、SOI、GaN與SiC高值化產品線是結構性升級方向，其中SOI新產能已呈現正毛利，GaN產能滿載且約30%擴充完成、另約20%擴充進行中，12吋SiC仍處客戶送樣/認證階段，潛在應用包括散熱、先進封裝、光學與穿戴等。主要風險包括：半導體庫存正常化慢於預期、成熟節點與消費性電子復甦不均、新廠折舊與爬坡成本壓抑毛利、能源/原料/物流/人力成本上升、匯率波動、地緣政治與關稅政策變動、中國本土矽晶圓廠擴產造成成熟製程價格壓力、客戶認證延後、政府補助認列時點不確定，以及矽晶圓產業高度寡占下主要競爭者的價格與長約策略。2027至2028年的推估展望偏向溫和至結構性成長，主要取決於AI資料中心、HBM/記憶體、先進封裝與美歐在地半導體製造投資是否如期轉化為晶圓材料出貨。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 中美晶 5483 母公司與主要法人股東；環球晶由中美晶半導體事業於2011年分割成立，公開第三方資料顯示中美晶持股約46.64%，在集團資源、資本配置與半導體材料布局上具關聯。
  • 高純度多晶矽與矽料供應商 矽晶棒長晶與矽晶圓製造的主要原料來源；公司公開資料未完整揭露主要供應商名單，故以產業類別列示。
  • 晶圓製程設備與耗材供應商 提供長晶爐、切片、研磨、拋光、蝕刻、清洗、磊晶、量測與自動化設備及耗材；具高資本支出與長交期特性，公司未完整公開主要供應商名單。
  • 特用化學品、研磨液、研磨墊與工業氣體供應商 供應拋光、蝕刻、清洗、磊晶與製程環境所需材料；公司供應鏈管理資料僅揭露供應商評鑑與永續政策，未公開主要供應商逐名清單。
  • 鑫晶鑽科技 原為台灣掛牌公司，2023年11月環球晶以股份轉換取得100%股權後成為子公司；與藍寶石/晶體材料及集團材料布局相關，現非台股上市櫃公司。
Downstream
  • 台積電 2330 晶圓代工龍頭，屬矽晶圓下游客戶群；第三方產業資料將其列為環球晶主要客戶之一。
  • 聯電 2303 晶圓代工廠，屬8吋與12吋矽晶圓下游應用客戶群；第三方產業資料將其列為環球晶主要客戶之一。
  • 世界先進 5347 台灣8吋晶圓代工廠，屬電源管理、類比與成熟製程矽晶圓需求的下游潛在/同產業客戶群；未確認為公司逐名揭露客戶。
  • 力積電 6770 台灣記憶體與晶圓代工廠，屬12吋矽晶圓下游需求端；未確認為公司逐名揭露客戶。
  • 三星電子 韓國上市公司，記憶體、邏輯與晶圓代工大廠；第三方產業資料將其列為環球晶主要客戶之一。
  • 英特爾 美國上市公司，IDM與晶圓代工布局者；第三方產業資料將其列為環球晶主要客戶之一，且美國在地晶圓供應鏈與德州12吋產能具策略關聯。
  • 美光科技 美國上市記憶體大廠；第三方產業資料將其列為環球晶主要客戶之一。
  • 德州儀器 美國上市類比與嵌入式半導體大廠；第三方產業資料將其列為環球晶主要客戶之一。
  • NXP Semiconductors 荷蘭/美國掛牌車用與工業半導體公司；第三方產業資料將其列為環球晶主要客戶之一。
  • Infineon Technologies 德國上市功率、車用與工業半導體公司；第三方產業資料將其列為環球晶主要客戶之一。
  • STMicroelectronics 歐洲上市半導體公司，功率、車用、工業與感測器應用；第三方產業資料將其列為環球晶主要客戶之一。
  • GlobalFoundries 美國上市晶圓代工公司；第三方產業資料將其列為環球晶主要客戶之一。

Competitors

  • 台勝科 3532 台灣上市矽晶圓廠，與SUMCO集團關係密切，產品涵蓋8吋與12吋矽晶圓，是台灣主要同業之一。
  • 合晶 6182 台灣上櫃矽晶圓廠，聚焦矽晶圓、晶棒與相關材料，是台灣矽晶圓族群主要競爭者之一。
  • 嘉晶 3016 台灣上市磊晶與特殊晶圓相關廠商，在磊晶晶圓與化合物/特殊材料部分與環球晶部分產品線有競合。
  • Shin-Etsu Handotai／信越化學 日本上市公司旗下半導體矽晶圓龍頭，全球市占率領先，非台股掛牌。
  • SUMCO Corporation 日本上市矽晶圓大廠，全球前二大競爭者之一，非台股掛牌。
  • Siltronic AG 德國上市矽晶圓大廠，全球前五大競爭者之一；環球晶曾持有/處分相關金融投資與交換債安排，非台股掛牌。
  • SK Siltron 韓國SK集團旗下矽晶圓大廠，全球前五大競爭者之一，未在台灣掛牌。
  • Soitec 法國上市特殊基板與SOI材料供應商，在SOI與特殊晶圓市場與環球晶部分產品線競爭，非台股掛牌。
  • 中國本土12吋矽晶圓廠商 包括西安奕斯偉、滬硅產業、中環領先、杭州立昂微等；受中國供應鏈在地化政策推動，對成熟製程與中國市場價格可能形成壓力，非台股掛牌或非台灣上市櫃公司。
Sources（20）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.