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6510

精測 Semiconductor As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

strong quality, premium valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 精測 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 14Quality 83Growth 77Momentum 64Chips 16

Is 精測 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Top-tier profitability.Operating margin beats ~92% of the market. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 3.6%.

  • Valuation is high.PE is in the 90th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 88th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -3.4% of volume (net sell).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 34.1%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bearish -0.40
BearishNeutralBullish

Distribution to retail — bearish

  • Distribution to retail — bearish
  • 統一 holds 713 lots
  • sellers have 669 lots left, ~42 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +43% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 統一 has accumulated 713 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 美商高盛 peaked at 611 lots, has sold 38%, 381 left, ~32 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -11.26pp, mid holders -3, retail +12.25pp — drifting down to retail.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -150 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
統一台灣摩根士丹利兆豐證券台新大和國泰統一-南京
Distributing
美商高盛新加坡商瑞銀花旗環球美林國泰-敦南(牛牛牛)亞證券
Desks
own scale
凱基凱基-站前群益金鼎富邦證券
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 統一 +713
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 台灣摩根士丹利 +561
    sold 6%· still adding
  • 兆豐證券 +330
    sold 8%· still adding
  • 台新 +220
    sold 8%· still adding
  • 大和國泰 +109
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 統一-南京 +70
    sold 0%· still adding

Distributing

  • 美商高盛 381 left
    sold 38%· ~32 sessions to clear
  • 新加坡商瑞銀 168 left
    sold 38%· paused recently
  • 花旗環球 159 left
    sold 35%· ~24 sessions to clear
  • 美林 74 left
    sold 69%· ~6 sessions to clear
  • 國泰-敦南 29 left
    sold 63%· ~7 sessions to clear
  • (牛牛牛)亞證券 28 left
    sold 46%· paused recently

Desks

  • 凱基 -825
    unclassified
  • 凱基-站前 -477
    unclassified
  • 群益金鼎 -408
    unclassified
  • 富邦證券 -398
    unclassified
Still selling 669 lots ~43 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +1,136 absorbed / -381 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -121 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Weak direction: big-holder share fell while retail share rose.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 34.09%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

63 historical occurrences (since 2016-03-24)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 52%, Sample 50, Median +1.65%, Excess +1.88%, Beat mkt rate 46%；60-day: Win 66.7%, Sample 48, Median +8.35%, Excess +7.33%, Beat mkt rate 54.2%；120-day: Win 62.5%, Sample 48, Median +8.05%, Excess +21.41%, Beat mkt rate 52.1%

120 days after: historical avg +31.99%

20-day +4.17%
60-day +12.15%
120-day +31.99%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
52%
66.7%
62.5%
Sample
50
48
48
Median
+1.65%
+8.35%
+8.05%
Excess
+1.88%
+7.33%
+21.41%
Beat mkt rate
46%
54.2%
52.1%

Over 48 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 31.99%, beat the market by 21.41 pts; win rate 62.5%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 436+14% +9.6% 63.3% +6.4%
20-40 426-9.3% -10.1% 25.6% -36.3%
40-60 178+145.1% +0.4% 50.6% +90.2%
60-80 146+40.1% -12.1% 17.1% +7.9%
80-100 You are here311+99.5% +82.4% 99.7% +79.5%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 103.84, at the 88.1th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
+6.5%
Win rate 46.6% Excess -4.7%
296d
+43.4%
Win rate 47.2% Excess +28.6%
307d
+26.1%
Win rate 60.1% Excess +12.9%
288d
60-day momentum down
+19.7%
Win rate 70.2% Excess +12.6%
449d
+52.8%
Win rate 64.7% Excess +32.1%
119d
Now
+28.6%
Win rate 55.7% Excess +13.3%
158d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum down”: across 158 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 28.6%, win rate 55.7%, beat the market by 13.3%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

13 times historically; 60-day forward avg +11.27%, win rate 41.7%, beating the market by +1.71 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

39 times historically; 60-day forward avg +5.16%, win rate 59%, beating the market by 0 pts on average.

What does 精測 do? Company profile

半導體業；半導體測試介面、晶圓測試卡、探針卡與IC測試板 櫃買中心上櫃

Overview

6510 對應證券為中華精測科技股份有限公司普通股，簡稱精測，英文簡稱 CHPT，為櫃買中心上櫃公司。公司成立於 2005/08/26，2016/03/24 上櫃，總部位於桃園市平鎮區工業三路15號，官方揭露董事長為洪維國、總經理為黃水可，實收資本額新台幣327,890,220元，已發行普通股32,789,022股。公司源自中華電信集團體系，主要股東依2025年報為中華投資股份有限公司持股33.74%、新制勞工退休基金6.38%、華南商業銀行信託部受託保管安聯台灣科技證券投資信託基金專戶2.93%、羅玉燕1.82%、彰化商業銀行受託保管統一台股增長主動式ETF基金專戶1.80%、舊制勞工退休基金1.77%、安聯台灣智慧基金專戶1.64%、富邦人壽1.58%、台灣人壽1.54%、黃水可1.32%。員工規模方面，2025年年報揭露2024年底1,137人、2025年底1,167人、截至2026/02/28為1,189人，平均年齡37歲、平均服務年資6.4年。公司自稱為全球半導體產業鏈少數具備All In House測試介面服務能力的廠商，整合機構、電學、化學、光學等能力，並自行開發探針、探針卡、IC測試專用PCB與相關測試介面。

Business

主要產品為晶圓測試卡（包含探針卡）、IC測試板、技術服務與其他，商業模式以客製化測試介面設計、製造、組裝、驗證與售後服務為核心，服務晶圓測試（Chip Probing）與封裝後成品測試（Final Testing）需求。2025年營收結構依年報為晶圓測試卡新台幣31.12億元、占64.76%；IC測試板12.07億元、占25.12%；技術服務及其他4.86億元、占10.12%；全年合計48.06億元。公司2025年探針卡營收占公司營收21.6%；依Yole資料，公司在2024年MEMS探針卡供應商排名全球第9，2025年探針卡營收約占全球探針卡營收1.11%、MEMS探針卡營收約占全球MEMS探針卡營收1.46%、IC測試載板營收約占全球IC測試載板營收5.02%。終端應用涵蓋AP、HPC、AI、GPU、CPU、RF、ASIC、Wi-Fi、記憶體、CIS、SSD控制器、網通、PMIC、TV SoC、Burn-in Board、車用電子等。客戶類型以國內外IC設計、晶圓製造、封裝測試大廠為主；年報基於保密僅以J、I、F、G等代號揭露主要客戶，其中2025年前三大客戶J/I/F分別占營收24.97%、15.69%、11.55%，顯示客戶集中度偏高。2025年營收成長主因為智慧型手機晶片探針卡、超高速運算HPC等AI相關晶片測試板訂單暢旺。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025年為營運高峰年，合併營收48.06億元、年增33.3%，毛利率約56%，歸屬母公司業主淨利9.97億元，EPS 30.41元，營收與獲利均創歷史新高，並通過每股現金股利15.3元。2026年前5月合併營收24.23億元、年增23.71%，5月單月營收5.43億元、年增34.09%，連續創單月營收新高；2026年第一季營收13.57億元、季增13.5%、年增17.8%，毛利率56.8%，歸屬母公司業主淨利3.42億元，EPS 10.43元，受惠HPC測試介面與整組探針卡需求。成長動能主要來自AI、HPC、ASIC、GPU、TPU、HBM相關晶片測試需求提升，以及先進製程2/3奈米、高功耗高頻寬晶片對高階探針卡、測試板、Burn-in Board、System Level Test Board的技術門檻提高。公司2025年決議重啟桃園平鎮三廠計畫，年報記載預計2025年底動土、2028年啟用；新聞與法說整理則提到2026年上半年動土、2028年完工或下半年投產，總投資含工程、土地及設備約35.88億至40.87億元之間，主要支應探針卡、IC載板與AI智慧工廠產能。部分媒體引述公司法說指出，部分客戶訂單能見度已延伸至2028年，2026年營收目標逐季向上、維持雙位數成長。2027至2028年關鍵觀察點為三廠建置進度、AI/HPC客戶訂單是否如期轉量產、探針卡與高階測試板產能利用率、MEMS探針卡滲透率、SLT與Burn-in測試介面新產品驗證。主要風險包括：主要客戶集中、主要供應商集中且年報未揭露真名；AI/HPC需求若修正將影響接單；先進探針卡與測試板技術迭代快速、國際競爭者製程能力提升；三廠資本支出與建廠時程風險；匯率、地緣政治、出口管制與半導體景氣循環；資訊安全與客戶機密保護風險。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 電子零件供應商B（年報匿名） 2025年年報揭露電子零件為主要原料之一，供應商以代號B揭露，2025年占進貨淨額15.52%；公司表示供應情形良好，未揭露實際公司名稱。
  • 化學藥水供應商C（年報匿名） 2025年年報揭露化學藥水為主要原料之一，供應商以代號C揭露，2025年占進貨淨額14.39%；未揭露實際公司名稱。
  • 銅箔基板供應商D（年報匿名） 2025年年報揭露銅箔基板為主要原料之一，供應商以代號D揭露，2025年占進貨淨額12.04%；未揭露實際公司名稱。
  • 機構件與探針材料供應鏈 精測產品需要機構件、特殊金屬材料、藥水與精密加工設備；公司官網表示掌握探針材料、藥水與金屬合成等關鍵技術，部分探針與設備自製，外部供應商名稱未公開。
Downstream
  • 匿名客戶J 2025年年報揭露之最大銷貨客戶，2025年銷貨金額新台幣11.999億元，占全年營收24.97%；公司未揭露名稱，應屬國內外IC設計、晶圓製造或封裝測試大廠。
  • 匿名客戶I 2025年年報揭露之主要銷貨客戶，2025年銷貨金額新台幣7.540億元，占全年營收15.69%；公司未揭露名稱。
  • 匿名客戶F 2025年年報揭露之主要銷貨客戶，2025年銷貨金額新台幣5.549億元，占全年營收11.55%；公司未揭露名稱。
  • 聯發科 2454 公開報導曾指聯發科為精測客戶與合作夥伴，且為台股上市IC設計公司；但精測最新年報未逐名確認主要客戶，故此項以歷史公開報導與產業鏈關係列示。
  • 台積電 2330 公開報導曾指台積電為精測客戶或合作夥伴，且為台股上市晶圓代工公司；精測產品用於晶圓測試與先進製程測試介面，最新年報未逐名確認主要客戶。
  • 高通 美國上市IC設計公司；多篇產業報導提及高通為精測客戶或終端相關客戶之一，非台股掛牌，stock_id設為null。
  • AI/HPC與ASIC晶片大廠 公司2026年5月營收報告指出持續獲得AI晶片大廠訂單挹注；年報與法說均顯示HPC、AI、ASIC、GPU等應用是主要成長來源，但客戶名稱多未公開。

Competitors

  • 旺矽 6223 台股上櫃探針卡、探針與半導體測試介面廠，為台灣同業競爭者之一。
  • 穎崴 6515 台股上市半導體測試介面廠，主要產品含測試座、探針頭、垂直探針卡等，與精測在高階測試介面領域部分競爭。
  • FormFactor 美國上市探針卡與半導體測試介面大廠；Yole資料列為2024年MEMS探針卡全球第1，非台股掛牌。
  • Technoprobe 義大利上市探針卡大廠；Yole資料列為2024年MEMS探針卡全球第2，非台股掛牌。
  • Micronics Japan 日本探針卡大廠；Yole資料列為2024年MEMS探針卡全球第3，非台股掛牌。
  • JEM 日本MEMS探針卡供應商，Yole資料列為2024年MEMS探針卡全球第4，非台股掛牌。
  • Max One 中國MEMS探針卡供應商，Yole資料列為2024年MEMS探針卡全球第5，非台股掛牌。
  • Korea Instrument / TSE / Soulbrain SLD / Will Technology 韓系MEMS探針卡供應商，年報引用Yole排名中列為主要國際競爭者；非台股掛牌或未確認台股代號。
Sources（13）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.