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6753

龍德造船 Shipping As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

strong quality, fair valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 龍德造船 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 46Quality 91Growth 71Momentum 37Chips 13

Is 龍德造船 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Top-tier profitability.Operating margin beats ~92% of the market. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 6.5%.

  • Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 33th market percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -4.2% of volume (net sell).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 26.9%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.26
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 台灣摩根士丹利 holds 834 lots
  • sellers have 648 lots left, ~597 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -11% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 台灣摩根士丹利 has accumulated 834 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 港商野村 peaked at 940 lots, has sold 86%, 129 left, paused recently.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +1.77pp, mid holders -3, retail +1.46pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -1,220 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
台灣摩根士丹利聯邦商銀新加坡商瑞銀國泰-高雄法銀巴黎元富
Distributing
港商野村群益金鼎元大-士林美林華南永昌-長虹永豐金-竹北
Desks
own scale
永豐金-匯立凱基-台北港商麥格理高橋-內壢
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 台灣摩根士丹利 +834
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 聯邦商銀 +524
    sold 0%
  • 新加坡商瑞銀 +472
    sold 24%
  • 國泰-高雄 +244
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 法銀巴黎 +241
    sold 0%
  • 元富 +232
    sold 23%

Distributing

  • 港商野村 129 left
    sold 86%· paused recently
  • 群益金鼎 95 left
    sold 86%· ~10 sessions to clear
  • 元大-士林 179 left
    sold 72%· ~597 sessions to clear
  • 美林 338 left
    sold 45%· paused recently
  • 華南永昌-長虹 258 left
    sold 53%· paused recently
  • 永豐金-竹北 26 left
    sold 89%· ~5 sessions to clear

Desks

  • 永豐金-匯立 -1,693
    unclassified
  • 凱基-台北 -1,062
    day-trade · selling pressure
  • 港商麥格理 -515
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 高橋-內壢 -496
    unclassified
Still selling 648 lots ~597 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +572 absorbed / -330 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -108 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Mixed direction: big-holder and retail changes are not aligned.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 26.91%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

18 historical occurrences (since 2023-03-10)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 47.1%, Sample 17, Median -2.9%, Excess +7.23%, Beat mkt rate 47.1%；60-day: Win 50%, Sample 16, Median -0.35%, Excess +1.31%, Beat mkt rate 50%；120-day: Win 43.8%, Sample 16, Median -2.26%, Excess -7.31%, Beat mkt rate 31.2%

120 days after: historical avg +10.61%

20-day +9.77%
60-day +5.96%
120-day +10.61%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
47.1%
50%
43.8%
Sample
17
16
16
Median
-2.9%
-0.35%
-2.26%
Excess
+7.23%
+1.31%
-7.31%
Beat mkt rate
47.1%
50%
31.2%

Over 16 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 10.61%, lagged the market by 7.31 pts; win rate 43.8%.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

12 times historically; 60-day forward avg +5.34%, win rate 45.5%, beating the market by -2.98 pts on average.

What does 龍德造船 do? Company profile

航運業；造船、船舶維修與高性能船艇製造 臺灣證券交易所上市

Overview

龍德造船工業股份有限公司為台灣民營造船公司，公開資訊與券商資料顯示成立日為1976/05/06，官方沿革亦列民國65年創立時實收資本額新台幣200萬元；公司登記與主要營運地址為宜蘭縣冬山鄉大興村德興五路15號，另有台北辦公室與新加坡分公司。董事長為黃守真，總經理為黃守龍，發言人為黃守真。股票於2021/01/12登錄興櫃，2023/03/10上市掛牌。實收資本額約新台幣11.72億元至11.73億元，已發行普通股約1.17億股；部分資料時間不同，股本數字有11.31億元與11.72億元差異。員工規模方面，104人力銀行列員工數約750人，EMIS列2025年約815人，故以約750至815人區間視之。主要法人與董事持股包含勤益投資控股股份有限公司約20,685,917股、克守創業股份有限公司代表人黃守真約16,445,220股、行政院國家發展基金管理會約8,071,033股，另黃守龍、江清華、林芷芳等自然人董事持股。公司主要生產基地包括宜蘭冬山、蘇澳造船路廠區及蘇澳港六廠；官方資料顯示六廠具備建造船長100公尺、船寬25公尺、排水量3,200公噸船艦能力，六廠北棟完工後可拓展至最長約125公尺船舶。

Business

龍德造船主要從事船舶及其零件製造、船舶維修與後勤保養，核心能力為中高速、高性能船艇之內部設計、建造、系統整合、海試與售後維修。產品包含海軍艦艇、快速布雷艇、高效能艦艇、巡邏艇、攔截艇、硬式充氣艇、港灣作業船、旅客船、渡輪、交通艇、消防救難船、監視船、水文與研究船、小水面雙體船、離岸風電人員運維船，以及水面無人載具與水下無人載具相關研發。2024年產品營收比重據MoneyDJ百科為船舶建造約83%、船舶維修約8%，其餘為其他；玉山證券揭露營收比重則列造船88.56%、船舶保養6.37%、其他5.07%，兩者口徑與年度可能不同。2025年全年營收為新台幣52.4633億元，年增約2.49%，EPS約5.98元；2026年5月單月營收約5.22億元，2026年前5月累計營收約23.35億元，年增約18.25%。商業模式以政府、軍方、公務機關與海外政府船隊之專案式造船合約為主，通常按工程進度或交船節點認列營收；維修保養業務則來自海軍策略性商維、整體後勤備料、新加坡巡邏艇全壽期保養等長約，具較長期、重複性收入特徵。主要客戶與終端應用包含國防部海軍、國家中山科學研究院、漁業署、海巡署、海關、新加坡警察海岸保衛處、台灣港務港勤、地方渡輪業者、消防救難與研究測量單位，應用集中於國防、公務執法、海巡、港勤、救難、客運與離岸風電運維。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025至2028年展望以國艦國造、公務船汰換、海巡艦艇需求、無人載具與產能擴張為主軸。2025年公司已完成中科院「快奇專案」有人/無人工作船研發案測試驗證並交船，並持續執行海軍高效能艦艇後續艦第二批5艘量產案、漁業署公務船、快速布雷艇後續艇6艘、新加坡公務船艇、海關巡緝艇、高速攔截艇與40公尺工作船等案。公司在115年度股東會資料中預期2026年交船數量達20艘以上；新聞報導亦指出2026年為交船高峰，包含6艘布雷艦與5艘高效能艦艇，若工程進度順利，營收有望較2025年成長。中長期方面，行政院特別預算與海巡署造艦需求包含40艘海巡艦艇，海軍亦釋出潛艦救難艦、無人艇、大型巡航艦等需求，龍德將爭取相關標案。公司自研「黑潮」無人艇，並與中科院合作無人艇科研案，董事長公開表示技術已就緒且強調非紅供應鏈；若國防部或海巡署無人艇標案釋出，將是2026至2028年重要成長選項。產能方面，六廠北棟廠房、天車與設備總投資約新台幣15億元，2025年底取得使用執照，完工後可承造最長約125公尺船舶，有助切入中大型公務與軍用船艦。維修保養方面，隨高效能艦艇第一批與快速布雷艇進入保固後期與中繼維修週期，新加坡分公司長期合約加上國內海軍商維需求，可支撐每年較穩定之售後收入。主要風險包括軍方與政府標案時程遞延、工程設計變更、交船驗收延誤、鋁合金與鋼板等原材料價格波動、進口引擎與推進設備交期及匯率、單一大型專案認列造成季營收與毛利波動、產能擴張後接單不足、機密與資安要求、無人船量產經驗仍需累積，以及台船、中信造船等同業競標壓力。2027至2028年之營收與獲利高度取決於2026年交船後新標案銜接、海巡40艘與無人艇預算實際落地、六廠北棟產能利用率及維修合約續增情形。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 中鋼鋁業股份有限公司 鋁合金板重要供應商；為中鋼集團公司，非台股掛牌公司，未填股票代號。
  • Rolls-Royce 引擎主機供應商之一；國外企業，非台股掛牌。
  • 中華機械股份有限公司 代理Caterpillar引擎主機與發電機等船用設備；非台股掛牌或未確認掛牌。
  • 快滿柴油機科技股份有限公司 代理MAN引擎主機等船用動力設備；非台股掛牌或未確認掛牌。
  • 璉慶企業股份有限公司 代理Kohler發電機等船用設備；非台股掛牌或未確認掛牌。
  • ZF Asia Pacific 減速機供應商；國外企業或海外子公司，非台股掛牌。
  • REINTJES Asia Pacific 減速機供應商；國外企業或海外子公司，非台股掛牌。
  • Kumera AS 減速機供應商；國外企業，非台股掛牌。
  • MJP 噴水推進器供應商；國外企業，非台股掛牌。
  • HamiltonJet 噴水推進器供應商；國外企業，非台股掛牌。
Downstream
  • 國防部海軍 軍用艦艇、快速布雷艇、高效能艦艇及策略性商維主要客戶；政府機關，非上市櫃公司。
  • 國家中山科學研究院 高效能艦艇載台、有人/無人工作船與無人載具研發合作及採購客戶；行政法人，非上市櫃公司。
  • 海洋委員會海巡署 公務與海巡艦艇潛在及既有下游需求來源；政府機關，非上市櫃公司。
  • 農業部漁業署 漁業巡護、公務船建造客戶；政府機關，非上市櫃公司。
  • 財政部關務署 巡緝艇等公務船需求來源；政府機關，非上市櫃公司。
  • Singapore Police Coast Guard 新加坡警察海岸保衛處，巡邏艇與全壽期維修保養客戶；外國政府單位，非台股掛牌。
  • 台灣港務港勤股份有限公司 離岸風電人員運維船與港勤船舶客戶；未上市國營相關公司。
  • 金門縣浯江輪渡有限公司 旅客船客戶；地方政府相關或未上市公司。

Competitors

  • 台灣國際造船股份有限公司 2208 台股上市造船公司，具大型商船、軍艦、潛艦與海巡船建造能力；在部分海軍、海巡及無人船標案與龍德競爭。
  • 中信造船股份有限公司 台灣民營造船廠，參與海巡、軍方與公務船建造；未上市櫃，無台股代號。
  • 嘉鴻遊艇股份有限公司 6754 台股上市遊艇製造商，產品以豪華遊艇為主，與龍德在軍公務高性能船艇直接重疊有限，但同屬船舶製造供應鏈與造船人才、材料、產能競爭範圍。
  • 台灣其他未上市造船與維修廠 包含地方船廠、港勤維修廠與專案協力廠；多非上市櫃，於小型公務船、維修保養或分包市場競爭。
Sources（18）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.