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8043

蜜望實 Electronic Components As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

quality needs a look, premium valuation.

2 active signals
252d high Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 蜜望實 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 18Quality 58Growth 86Momentum 100Chips 50

Is 蜜望實 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Weak profitability.Operating margin is in the 40th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 3.9%.

  • Valuation is high.PE is in the 82th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 92th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 0.5% of volume (net buy).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 59.6%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as 252-day price high, Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bearish -0.19
BearishNeutralBullish

Distribution, concentration falling — bearish

  • Distribution, concentration falling — bearish
  • 凱基-桃園 holds 1,158 lots
  • sellers have 1,046 lots left, ~1300 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +125% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 凱基-桃園 has accumulated 1,158 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 元大證券 peaked at 5,126 lots, has sold 82%, 904 left, paused recently.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -2.79pp, mid holders +4, retail -0.30pp — little change.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -1,350 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
凱基-桃園台新-城中永豐金證券元富中國信託-三重台新-文心
Distributing
元大證券統一台灣摩根士丹利美商高盛華南永昌台新-信義
Desks
own scale
富邦證券凱基-站前美林港商野村
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 凱基-桃園 +1,158
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 台新-城中 +332
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 永豐金證券 +309
    sold 2%· still adding
  • 元富 +241
    sold 0%
  • 中國信託-三重 +182
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 台新-文心 +158
    sold 10%· still adding

Distributing

  • 元大證券 904 left
    sold 82%· paused recently
  • 統一 625 left
    sold 65%· ~12 sessions to clear
  • 台灣摩根士丹利 335 left
    sold 66%· paused recently
  • 美商高盛 615 left
    sold 32%· paused recently
  • 華南永昌 138 left
    sold 59%· paused recently
  • 台新-信義 51 left
    sold 85%· paused recently

Desks

  • 富邦證券 -995
    unclassified
  • 凱基-站前 -949
    unclassified
  • 美林 -606
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 港商野村 -483
    hedge desk · will cover
Still selling 1,046 lots ~1300 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +2,850 absorbed / -875 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -1,176 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Mixed direction: big-holder and retail changes are not aligned.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

252-day price high (breakout)

Active

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

28 historical occurrences (since 2009-07-02)
Average forward return after 252-day price high (breakout)。20-day: Win 50%, Sample 28, Median +0.1%, Excess +5.6%, Beat mkt rate 46.4%；60-day: Win 51.9%, Sample 27, Median +0.19%, Excess +6.23%, Beat mkt rate 44.4%；120-day: Win 65.4%, Sample 26, Median +7.35%, Excess +11.44%, Beat mkt rate 46.2%

120 days after: historical avg +18.92%

20-day +7.23%
60-day +11.2%
120-day +18.92%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
50%
51.9%
65.4%
Sample
28
27
26
Median
+0.1%
+0.19%
+7.35%
Excess
+5.6%
+6.23%
+11.44%
Beat mkt rate
46.4%
44.4%
46.2%

Over 26 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 18.92%, beat the market by 11.44 pts; win rate 65.4%.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 59.56%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

63 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 44.4%, Sample 54, Median -0.86%, Excess +2.45%, Beat mkt rate 38.9%；60-day: Win 51.9%, Sample 52, Median +0.83%, Excess +8.69%, Beat mkt rate 40.4%；120-day: Win 51%, Sample 49, Median +0.94%, Excess +7.24%, Beat mkt rate 42.9%

120 days after: historical avg +12.36%

20-day +3.55%
60-day +11.99%
120-day +12.36%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
44.4%
51.9%
51%
Sample
54
52
49
Median
-0.86%
+0.83%
+0.94%
Excess
+2.45%
+8.69%
+7.24%
Beat mkt rate
38.9%
40.4%
42.9%

Over 49 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 12.36%, beat the market by 7.24 pts; win rate 51%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 369+5.4% +10.7% 56.4% -12.7%
20-40 218+11.7% +12% 58.7% -5.1%
40-60 429+4.2% +6% 67.8% -11.3%
60-80 542+9.5% -2.5% 44.1% +3.9%
80-100 You are here1278+45.6% +18.6% 71.4% +23.1%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 66.07, at the 91.9th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
+3.8%
Win rate 65.3% Excess -4.3%
271d
+3.2%
Win rate 67.2% Excess -3.7%
384d
Now
+23.5%
Win rate 54.9% Excess +14.9%
969d
60-day momentum down
+3.2%
Win rate 53.5% Excess -8%
228d
+20%
Win rate 71.6% Excess +15%
327d
+22.9%
Win rate 57% Excess +10%
774d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 969 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 23.5%, win rate 54.9%, beat the market by 14.9%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

44 times historically; 60-day forward avg +4.75%, win rate 48.8%, beating the market by +0.63 pts on average.

What does 蜜望實 do? Company profile

電子零組件業；電子零組件通路、被動元件代理經銷 上櫃（證券櫃檯買賣中心）

Overview

蜜望實企業股份有限公司成立於1989-05-20，統一編號23310983，總部位於台北市內湖區內湖路一段316號8樓，股票於2003-10-24上櫃。董事長為林訓民，總經理為許弘志。依公開基本資料及114年報，實收資本額為新台幣799,071,700元，已發行普通股79,907,170股；截至2026-05-11，集團從業員工124人，平均年齡41.91歲、平均服務年資12.33年。114年報揭露前十大主要股東包括：益登科技13.83%、元強投資8.71%、林訓民6.95%、陳陸熹5.06%、山鳴投資4.00%、張淑慧3.33%、錞錞投資3.00%、李美惠2.81%、陳鴻愷2.51%、景陽投資1.87%。公司本質為電子零件及組件通路商，非製造業，無工廠。

Business

公司主要從事電子零組件代理銷售，核心為被動元件中的積層陶瓷電容（MLCC）及電感，並代理SAW filter、MEMS麥克風、影像訊號處理器ISP晶片、SRAM/嵌入式記憶體、音效功率放大器、電阻、保護電源用電阻、攝像感測模組、熱敏電阻、薄膜精密電阻、馬達、E-Bike控制器模組及氮化鎵電源控制器模組等。114年度營業收入5,426,256千元，年增15.75%，營收分布為電子零組件100%；113年度營收4,688,007千元，同為電子零組件100%。商業模式是承接國內外電子零組件供應商產品線，提供下游主機板、筆記型電腦、智慧型手機、消費性電子、網通、伺服器、車用、工控、E-Bike及產業機械客戶即時供貨、物流、庫存管理與技術支援。公司揭露客戶遍及國內一線主機板、筆記型電腦及手機廠商，但近年報對主要銷貨客戶以代號匿名揭露；114年度單一匿名主要銷貨客戶GHI佔銷貨7.18%，113年度GHI佔27.21%。主要供應端則以太陽誘電相關MLCC及電感產品為核心，年報亦揭露進貨集中為重大營運風險。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025年實際營運受惠AI手機、AI PC、生成式AI應用、AI伺服器與高階交換器需求擴大，合併營收升至54.26億元，營業毛利3.05億元，毛利產品比重提升。2026年公司年報展望偏保守，原因包括地緣政治、武裝衝突、美國對等關稅及232條款關稅不確定性、記憶體缺貨及價格飆漲造成智慧手機與PC出貨下修，以及全球電動車市場成長放緩；但公司策略仍聚焦高容值MLCC、AI相關市場、車用與產機客戶、E-Bike控制器模組、馬達、車用薄膜電阻、麥克風、ISP、氮化鎵電源控制器模組、電源管理IC、高耐電壓電容及大容量電容等產品線。2027至2028屬推估：若AI伺服器、主權AI資料中心、高階交換器、車用電子、工控與低耗能產品趨勢延續，高階MLCC及電源相關元件需求可望支撐公司產品組合升級；但蜜望實作為通路商，獲利仍高度受上游供貨政策、太陽誘電等主力供應商授權與價格、下游客戶庫存循環、匯率、關稅、東南亞物流成本、低價中國及韓系產品競爭、進貨集中與應收帳款風險影響。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 太陽誘電（Taiyo Yuden） 日本上市電子元件製造商；蜜望實主要代理其積層陶瓷電容及電感，年報多次指出公司主要經銷與轉售Taiyo Yuden高端MLCC，亦揭露主力進貨集中風險。
  • 鈺太科技 6679 台股上櫃IC設計公司；年報列為代理產品供應商，提供微機電麥克風，應用於筆記型電腦、Chromebook、All-in-one、TV、Speaker及手機相關產品。
  • 來揚科技（Lyontek Inc.） 台灣未上市IC設計公司；年報列為代理供應商，產品包括影像訊號處理器ISP晶片、SRAM、嵌入式記憶體及音效功率放大器等。
  • 凌陽創新科技 5236 台股上櫃IC設計公司；年報列為代理供應商，產品應用於影像或多媒體相關晶片領域。
  • Stackpole Technology, Inc.（世達柏科技） 非台股掛牌供應商；年報列為電阻、保護電源用電阻供應商，應用於主機板、電源供應器、消費性電子、汽車馬達及自動控制。
  • 日本電產株式會社（Nidec） 日本上市集團；年報列為馬達供應來源，產品應用於機器人、無人機、手機、輔助型腳踏車及伺服器。
Downstream
  • GHI（年報匿名揭露之主要銷貨客戶） 年報以代號匿名揭露，114年度佔銷貨7.18%，113年度佔銷貨27.21%；未揭露實名，故無法確認是否台股掛牌。
  • 國內一線主機板、筆記型電腦及智慧型手機製造大廠 年報明確揭露客戶遍及此類製造商，但未揭露實名；下游應用包括主機板、筆電、手機、液晶顯示器、網通設備、數位相機、電子書、伺服器、車用及工控等。
  • E-Bike及產業用機械客戶 公司規劃將E-Bike控制器模組及馬達應用於輔助型腳踏車與產業機械，並拓展歐美輔助型腳踏車市場；具體客戶未公開。

Competitors

  • 日電貿 3090 台股上市電子零組件及被動元件通路商，與蜜望實在被動元件代理、客戶服務及供應鏈管理上具可比性。
  • 益登科技 3048 台股上市電子零組件通路商，同時為蜜望實主要股東之一；在零組件代理及下游電子製造客戶服務上具廣義競爭與同業可比性。
  • 大聯大 3702 台股上市大型半導體與電子零組件通路商，規模較大，屬廣義電子零組件代理通路競爭者。
  • 文曄 3036 台股上市半導體與電子零組件通路商，屬廣義電子零組件代理通路競爭者。
  • 國巨 2327 台股上市被動元件大廠；年報列為全球MLCC主要供應商之一，與蜜望實代理銷售之高階MLCC在終端需求上具產品競爭關係。
  • 華新科 2492 台股上市被動元件大廠；年報列為全球MLCC主要供應商之一，與蜜望實代理產品在MLCC市場具產品競爭關係。
  • 村田製作所（Murata） 日本上市MLCC龍頭；年報列為全球MLCC主要供應商，非台股掛牌。
  • 三星電機（SEMCO） 韓國上市MLCC主要供應商；年報列為全球MLCC主要供應商，非台股掛牌。
Sources（9）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.