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8411

福貞-KY Other As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

quality needs a look, premium valuation.

1 active signal

Foreign buy

This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 福貞-KY to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.

Is 福貞-KY a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

Weak profitability.Operating margin is in the 36th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 0.7%.
Valuation is high.PE is in the 92th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 100th percentile.
Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 2.8% of volume (net buy).
Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Foreign net buying 5 straight days are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.19

BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
永豐金證券 holds 782 lots
sellers have 953 lots left, ~34 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +2% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

Largest holder 永豐金證券 has accumulated 782 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
Main distributor 富邦-南員林 peaked at 1,441 lots, has sold 41%, 852 left, ~18 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +0.41pp, mid holders +1, retail -0.23pp — concentration shifting upward.
Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -77 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).

Branch inventory reconstruction

Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.

Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.

Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.

Accumulating

永豐金證券玉山-信義華南永昌-中正台灣摩根士丹利美商高盛元大-新盛

Distributing

富邦-南員林凱基-台北永豐金-市政新加坡商瑞銀凱基-台中高橋-龍潭

Desks

own scale

宏遠證券新光-高雄富邦-木柵富邦-南京

Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline

Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

永豐金證券 +782

sold 0%· still adding
玉山-信義 +191

sold 0%· still adding
華南永昌-中正 +170

sold 0%· still adding
台灣摩根士丹利 +130

sold 5%· still adding
美商高盛 +106

sold 3%· still adding
元大-新盛 +100

sold 0%

Distributing

富邦-南員林 852 left

sold 41%· ~18 sessions to clear
凱基-台北 67 left

sold 33%· ~34 sessions to clear
永豐金-市政 14 left

sold 44%· paused recently
新加坡商瑞銀 8 left

sold 50%· ~16 sessions to clear
凱基-台中 11 left

sold 27%· ~28 sessions to clear
高橋-龍潭 7 left

sold 50%· ~10 sessions to clear

Desks

宏遠證券 -1,201

unclassified
新光-高雄 -128

unclassified
富邦-木柵 -104

unclassified
富邦-南京 -98

unclassified

Still selling 953 lots ~34 sessions to bottom at most

Recent buy/sell force +779 absorbed / -518 sold buyers slightly ahead

Hedge-desk net short -1 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure

TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check

>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Active · now 5%

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

48 historical occurrences (since 2012-05-18)

120 days after: historical avg +0.32%

20-day -0.17%

60-day +0.12%

120-day +0.32%

20-day

60-day

120-day

Win

46.8%

42.2%

40%

Sample

Median

-0.94%

-0.92%

-2.43%

Excess

-1.46%

-3.61%

-7.75%

Beat mkt rate

42.6%

37.8%

26.7%

Over 45 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 0.32%, lagged the market by 7.75 pts; win rate 40%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

0-20 -21.7%

20-40 -26.3%

40-60 +1%

60-80 -3.2%

80-100 -0.9% Now

PE percentile band	Sample days	240-day avg return	Median	Win rate	Avg excess (vs index)
0-20	139	-21.7%	-14.3%	0%	-58.2%
20-40	167	-26.3%	-36.9%	21.6%	-51.2%
40-60	160	+1%	-3.9%	47.5%	-23.8%
60-80	427	-3.2%	+3.6%	52.7%	-29.9%
80-100 You are here	671	-0.9%	+3%	51.9%	-21.8%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 122.5, at the 99.9th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation

Momentum

Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)

Mid

Expensive (own-history top 1/3)

60-day momentum up

-8%

Win rate 19.4% Excess -19.6%

62d

+6.8%

Win rate 57.1% Excess -3.9%

154d

-1.8%

Win rate 53.3% Excess -11.5%

569d

60-day momentum down

-11.6%

Win rate 2.6% Excess -17.8%

189d

-7.4%

Win rate 36.3% Excess -30.3%

124d

Now

-3.8%

Win rate 55.3% Excess -18.1%

586d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum down”: across 586 historical days, 120-day forward avg declined 3.8%, win rate 55.3%, lagged the market by 18.1%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

11 times historically; 60-day forward avg +3.9%, win rate 45.5%, beating the market by +0.37 pts on average.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Pending

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

57 times historically; 60-day forward avg +0.99%, win rate 48.2%, beating the market by -1.09 pts on average.

What does 福貞-KY do? Company profile

其他業；金屬包裝容器、製罐、飲料食品充填代工台灣證券交易所上市

Overview

8411 對應證券為福貞-KY，為台灣證券交易所上市普通股，非 ETF、ETN、權證或特別股。公司全名為福貞控股股份有限公司，英文名 Kingcan Holdings Limited，註冊於開曼群島，為投資控股與營運管理公司。公司設立日為 2009-08-26，興櫃掛牌日為 2009-12-17，公開發行生效日為 2010-10-19，上市日為 2011-11-01。總公司登記地址為 The Grand Pavilion Commercial Centre, Oleander Way, 802 West Bay Road, P.O. Box 32052, Grand Cayman, KY1-1208, Cayman Islands；主要營運基地位於中國大陸福建、山東、湖北、廣東、河南、陝西，以及台灣新竹等八處基地。董事長為李榮福，總經理為莊素貞，執行副總經理暨公司治理主管為李毓嵐，財務主管為藍建中。實收資本額為新台幣 2,184,043 千元，已發行普通股 218,404,319 股；截至 2026-05-28，從業員工 1,335 人，平均年齡 39.53 歲，平均服務年資 7.81 年。主要股東名單依 2026-04-19 年報揭露，包含 Victory Breeze Limited 16.86%、Winner Bloom Limited 16.86%、Leader Enterprises Limited 6.20%、Glory Color International Limited 5.62%、齊勝國際有限公司 5.49%、渣打託管列支敦士登銀行 4.50%、Golden Merit Limited 3.36%、栢富國際有限公司 3.25%、李毓嵐 2.97%、李明 2.62%。2025 年合併營收為新台幣 91.87 億元，年增 2.60%，但歸屬母公司淨損約新台幣 1.50 億元、每股虧損 0.69 元；2025 年第 4 季已轉盈。2025 年度董事會擬配現金股利每股 0.10 元。

Business

福貞-KY 是金屬包裝容器製造商，核心業務包含三片式馬口鐵產品涂黃彩印、製罐、進出口買賣，二片式鋁罐製造與銷售，以及食品飲料充填罐裝代工。2025 年產品營收結構為：鋁罐新台幣 5,015,932 千元、占 54.60%；馬口鐵罐新台幣 2,694,259 千元、占 29.33%；聯產品白鋁占 4.84%；罐蓋含鋁蓋與底蓋占 4.71%；涂黃彩印製品占 4.07%；灌裝代工占 1.94%；金屬包裝加工占 0.44%；其他占 0.07%。馬口鐵罐用途涵蓋果汁、杏仁露、核桃露、花生牛奶、乳品、椰子汁、咖啡、茶飲、蔬果、八寶粥、水產品、茶葉、油漆、煉乳、寵物食品與氣霧罐等；鋁罐主要用於碳酸飲料、啤酒、茶類與果汁飲料；充填代工品項包含涼茶、植物性蛋白飲料、茶類、果汁與液態飲料。集團採一站式服務模式，從金屬包材製造延伸到充填罐裝，藉此提升客戶黏著度、縮短供應鏈時間並改善產品組合毛利。年報揭露全集團年產能三片式馬口鐵罐可達 18 億支以上，二片式鋁罐可達 35 億支以上。中國大陸市場為主要營運重心，並透過台灣新竹廠拓展台灣飲料食品金屬包材市場；外銷區域包含美國、加拿大、東南亞、印度、中東、南亞、北美等。主要客戶為中國大陸與台灣知名食品飲料品牌或其供應鏈公司，包括廣藥供應鏈公司（王老吉）、廈門銀鷺、海南椰樹、青島啤酒、燕京啤酒、雪花啤酒、上海旺旺、河北養元、青島雀巢、河南金星啤酒、泰山企業（漳州）、黑松、台灣菸酒、可口可樂台灣、金車等。商業模式以大量包材銷售、客製化罐型、高附加價值特製罐與充填代工服務為主，收入受原物料價格、產能利用率、客戶拉貨節奏、飲料旺季與中國內需消費景氣影響。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025 年公司營收續創新高但全年仍虧損，主因包含市場價格競爭、產品組合不利、新台幣升值波動、部分新產線與新廠仍處爬坡階段。正面動能包括：一、山東第二條鋁罐線、陝西新廠、永定充填廠與新竹基地效益逐步發揮；二、陝西、山東、河南可進行華北與華中區域產銷連動，降低換線與運輸成本；三、公司持續開發高附加價值特製罐，如寵物食品罐、茶葉罐、食品罐與客製化異型罐，以降低價格競爭壓力；四、充填罐裝代工可支援客戶一站式需求，提高客戶黏著度；五、啤酒罐化率提升、中國擴大服務消費政策、客戶新品導入與春節備貨需求，均可能帶動 2026 年營收與產能利用率。公司與媒體報導指出 2025 年為營運落底期，2026 至 2027 年為產能綜效逐步展現期，2026 年營收有機會挑戰新台幣百億元，並力拚重返獲利；2026 年初月營收已顯著年增，反映客戶備貨與部分新產能效益。2027 至 2028 年若鋁罐與特製罐稼動率提升、原料成本可順利轉嫁、製罐產業價格競爭回歸理性，獲利結構有望改善。主要風險包括：中國大陸食品飲料終端需求不如預期、金屬包材產能過剩與跨區域低價競爭、鋁材與馬口鐵價格波動、匯率波動、利率與財務成本、應收帳款收款延遲、環保法規與工安合規成本、設備與關鍵零組件供應商集中、陝西與永定等新產能利用率未達損益兩平、外銷市場地緣政治與貿易政策變化。2028 年以後的量化財務預估公司未明確揭露，因此僅能以產能、產品組合與產業趨勢推估，不能視為公司財測。

Supply Chain

Upstream

天津忠旺鋁業公司年報揭露之鋁材等原材料採購契約對象；非台股上市櫃公司。
河南中孚鋁材公司年報揭露之鋁材原材料採購契約對象；中國大陸公司，非台股上市櫃公司。
鄒平宏發鋁業公司年報揭露之鋁材原材料採購契約對象；中國大陸公司，非台股上市櫃公司。
廈門保灃集團公司年報揭露之鋁蓋採購契約對象；非台股上市櫃公司。
天津象嶼鋁業公司年報揭露之原材料採購契約對象；非台股上市櫃公司。
衡水板業包裝材料公司年報揭露之原材料採購契約對象；非台股上市櫃公司。
上海北信貿易公司年報揭露之原材料採購契約對象；非台股上市櫃公司。
統一實業 9907 MoneyDJ 百科列為馬口鐵等原料供應商之一，同時也是金屬包裝同業競爭者；台股上市公司。
Soudronic 瑞士製罐設備供應商，年報列為馬口鐵罐焊機等設備來源；非台股上市櫃公司。
CABTREE 英國印刷設備供應商，年報列為馬口鐵罐印刷製程設備來源；非台股上市櫃公司。
Stolle Machinery 美國二片式鋁罐設備供應商，年報列為沖杯機、拉伸機、彩印機等設備來源；非台股上市櫃公司。
Belvac 美國鋁罐製程設備供應商，年報列為二片式鋁罐設備來源；非台股上市櫃公司。

Downstream

廣藥供應鏈公司（王老吉）年報揭露之重要銷售契約對象，採購空罐；中國大陸公司，非台股上市櫃公司。
廈門銀鷺食品集團年報揭露之重要銷售契約對象，採購空罐；中國大陸食品飲料品牌，非台股上市櫃公司。
海南椰樹年報揭露之重要客戶，採購塗黃鐵與相關包材；中國大陸公司，非台股上市櫃公司。
青島啤酒年報揭露之重要銷售契約對象，福建、山東、河南、陝西廠對其合作廠供應空罐；中國與香港上市公司，非台股上市櫃公司。
雪花釀酒年報揭露之重要銷售契約對象，採購空罐；中國大陸啤酒品牌，非台股上市櫃公司。
河北養元智匯飲品年報揭露之重要銷售契約對象，依訂單量簽約採購空罐；中國大陸公司，非台股上市櫃公司。
青島雀巢年報揭露之重要銷售契約對象，採購空罐；外商在中國營運公司，非台股上市櫃公司。
山東歡樂家年報揭露之重要銷售契約對象，採購空罐；中國大陸公司，非台股上市櫃公司。
廣州明旺年報揭露之重要銷售契約對象，採購空罐；屬中國市場客戶，非台股上市櫃公司。
鄭州金星啤酒年報揭露之重要銷售契約對象，採購空罐；中國大陸啤酒公司，非台股上市櫃公司。
泰山企業（漳州） 1218 年報揭露之重要銷售契約對象；為台股上市泰山企業集團在中國大陸相關營運公司，採購空罐。
黑松商貿 1234 年報揭露之重要銷售契約對象，採購空罐及罐裝服務；為台股上市黑松相關商貿公司。
台灣菸酒公司年報揭露之台灣銷售契約對象，採購空罐；國營公司，非台股上市櫃公司。
可口可樂台灣分公司年報揭露之台灣銷售契約對象，採購空罐；外商在台分公司，非台股上市櫃公司。
台灣金車公司年報揭露之台灣銷售契約對象，採購空罐；未上市公司。

Competitors

統一實業 9907 台股上市公司，馬口鐵罐、飲料包裝與相關鐵產品同業；MoneyDJ 列為福貞馬口鐵罐競爭者。
吉源-KY 8488 台股上市金屬包裝公司，產品含馬口鐵罐、鋁罐、底蓋等，與福貞-KY 在中國飲料食品包材市場競爭。
宏全 9939 台股上市飲料包材與充填代工大廠，與福貞在飲品包材、充填及一站式服務部分形成競爭或替代關係。
中糧包裝中國金屬包裝業者，曾為香港上市公司或中國大型包裝集團旗下公司；非台股上市櫃。
昇興股份中國 A 股金屬包裝公司，MoneyDJ 列為馬口鐵罐競爭者；非台股上市櫃。
奧瑞金中國 A 股金屬包裝公司，為中國金屬包材主要競爭者之一；非台股上市櫃。
廣南（集團）香港上市集團，MoneyDJ 列為馬口鐵罐競爭者；非台股上市櫃。
Ball Corporation 美國上市全球鋁罐與金屬包裝大廠；非台股上市櫃。
Crown Holdings 美國上市全球金屬包裝大廠；非台股上市櫃。
Toyo Seikan Group Holdings 日本上市包裝容器大廠；非台股上市櫃。

Sources（14）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.