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Help me set up FinLab and analyze 8906 花王. Please read: https://finlab.finance/en/setup?stock=8906
8906
quality needs a look, premium valuation, no active signal today.
Is 花王 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first
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Weak profitability.Operating margin is in the 13th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ -4.2%.
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Valuation is high.PE is in the 93th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 24th percentile.
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Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -0.2% of volume (net sell).
Chip flow
Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -19% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12
- Largest holder 玉山證券 has accumulated 252 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
- Main distributor 國泰證券 peaked at 189 lots, has sold 32%, 128 left, ~21 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
- TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +0.92pp, mid holders +0, retail -0.93pp — concentration shifting upward.
- Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -69 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Accumulating
- 玉山證券 +252
- 華南永昌-桃園 +182
- 元大-鳳中 +87
- 凱基-桃園 +66
- 台灣企銀-埔墘 +63
- 兆豐-忠孝 +63
Distributing
- 國泰證券 128 left
- 富邦-桃園 70 left
- 新光-台中 57 left
- 統一-敦南 58 left
- 第一金-忠孝 14 left
- 新光-新竹 16 left
Desks
- 台新 -115
- 富邦-北港 -79
- 元大-鹿港 -76
- 永豐金-埔里 -76
Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.
Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.
Historical evidence
Valuation regime and subsequent returns
Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.
| PE percentile band | Sample days | 240-day avg return | Median | Win rate | Avg excess (vs index) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20 | 0 | Insufficient data | |||
| 20-40 You are here | 60 | +35.4% | +37.6% | 100% | +42.9% |
| 40-60 | 0 | Insufficient data | |||
| 60-80 | 76 | +35.7% | +35.7% | 100% | +49.2% |
| 80-100 | 71 | +5.9% | +2.9% | 71.8% | +17.9% |
Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.
Current PE ≈ 69.62, at the 24.5th percentile of its own history (20-40 band).
Valuation × momentum historical grid
Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.
(0d)
(0d)
Currently in “Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3) × 60-day momentum down”: across 71 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 12.8%, win rate 76.1%, beat the market by 9.9%.
Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.
Signals not active (historical stats for reference)
These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.
252-day price high (breakout)
PendingAdjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.
21 times historically; 60-day forward avg +3.85%, win rate 33.3%, beating the market by +1.23 pts on average.
Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)
PendingMonthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).
42 times historically; 60-day forward avg +5.37%, win rate 50%, beating the market by +2.25 pts on average.
Foreign net buying for 5 straight days
PendingForeign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.
7 times historically; 60-day forward avg +0.15%, win rate 50%, beating the market by -8.6 pts on average.
What does 花王 do? Company profile
Overview
8906 對應證券為櫃買中心上櫃普通股，簡稱花王，非 ETF、ETN、權證或特別股。公司成立於 1968/07/31，1996/04/23 掛牌上櫃；總部登記於新北市土城區中山路 65 號，主要生產據點包含新北土城與桃園大溪。英文名稱為 Forward Graphic Enterprise Co., Ltd.。董事長及總經理為謝宗翰，2026/06/11 董事會改選後由謝宗翰續任董事長。實收資本額約新台幣 4.40 億元，已發行普通股約 44,037,370 股；股務代理為福邦證券，簽證會計師事務所為資誠聯合會計師事務所。員工規模依 104 人力銀行揭露約 100 人。股權方面，鉅亨網揭露前十大持股約 18.03%，董監經理人持股資料中可見家正投資股份有限公司、謝宗翰、謝宗益等持股資訊；惟完整前十大股東名冊需以公開資訊觀測站年報為準。
Business
花王為台灣印刷業者，主要業務為印刷與相關企劃、設計、照相、網片輸出、製版、印刷及後加工。產品包含包裝印刷、商業印刷、文化印刷、特殊印刷及 UV 印刷；包裝印刷涵蓋彩色包裝盒、禮盒、包裝紙等，商業印刷涵蓋海報、說明書、型錄、DM、卡片等，文化印刷涵蓋書籍、雜誌、畫冊、紀念冊、月曆等，特殊印刷涵蓋標籤、貼紙、條碼等，UV 印刷涵蓋紙類與非紙類材質、精緻彩盒、金銀箔與立體印刷等。2024 年營收比重依 MoneyDJ 為印刷品 100%；2025 年（民國 114 年）年報資料顯示產品組合為包裝印刷約 152,959 千元、占 75.93%，商業印刷約 35,701 千元、占 17.70%，文化印刷約 5,241 千元、占 2.60%，特殊印刷約 7,590 千元、占 3.77%。商業模式以接單式印刷加工與客製化包裝／商業印刷服務為主，收入來自印刷品銷售及相關加工服務；主要銷售市場以台灣為主。主要原物料包含紙張、油墨、印刷用版材如 CTP 版或 PS 版。公司近年營運承壓：2024 年營收約 2.33 億元、EPS 約 -0.22 元；2025 年營收約 2.02 億元、較 2024 年減少約 13.36%，稅後淨損約 3,276 萬元、每股虧損約 0.78 元。
Outlook 2025–2028
2025 至 2028 年展望以轉型、成本控制與綠色印刷為主軸。成長動能方面，包裝印刷已是最大營收來源，2025 年占比約 75.93%，公司策略為持續拓展包裝印刷及多元化應用市場，提供客製化、高附加價值與綠色包裝解決方案。新技術與製程方面，公司 2025 年年報提到 2025 年導入新型展墨系統，透過調色與製程控制改善印刷效率、降低製程浪費、節省能源及原料，並持續推動節能、低碳、綠色印刷、自動化與智慧化設備。產業趨勢方面，全球 ESG、低碳製造、循環經濟、政府 2050 淨零政策，將推動印刷業朝環保材質、低碳製程與高附加價值包裝發展；但數位化與無紙化也會壓縮傳統商業與文化印刷需求。風險與挑戰包括：傳統印刷市場規模縮減、終端客戶需求受美中貿易摩擦與關稅不確定性影響而保守、紙漿紙材及運輸成本仍處高檔、印刷業勞動需求較高導致人力與效率壓力、同業競爭激烈、公司 2024 與 2025 年連續虧損使財務彈性及投資能力受限。2026 至 2028 年若公司能提升包裝印刷占比、改善毛利率、導入節能與自動化設備並穩定原料成本，營運有改善空間；但截至 2026/06/17 未見公司公開量化 2026 至 2028 年營收或獲利預測，因此中長期數字展望不應自行推估。
Supply Chain
- 食品、消費品、出版與一般工商客戶 下游需求來自包裝盒、禮盒、海報、說明書、型錄、書籍、雜誌、標籤、貼紙等應用；公司公開資料未具名揭露主要客戶，故 stock_id 設為 null。
Competitors
Sources（12）
This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.
Method and limitations
- All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
- Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
- Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
- Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
- Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.
This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.