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Help me set up FinLab and analyze 8916 光隆. Please read: https://finlab.finance/en/setup?stock=8916
8916
quality needs a look, fair valuation, no active signal today.
Is 光隆 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first
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Weak profitability.Operating margin is in the 27th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 0.5%.
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Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 42th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 95th percentile.
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Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -6.7% of volume (net sell).
Chip flow
Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -10% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12
- Largest holder 國泰證券 has accumulated 1,782 lots since the start (sold 0%), holding.
- Main distributor 元大-館前 peaked at 38 lots, has sold 55%, 17 left, ~8 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
- TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +2.32pp, mid holders -1, retail -1.28pp — concentration shifting upward.
- Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -476 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Accumulating
- 國泰證券 +1,782
- 元大-八德 +634
- 凱基-中壢 +548
- 元大-中崙 +502
- 華南永昌-南京 +174
- 元大-敦化 +165
Distributing
- 元大-館前 17 left
- 元大-文心興安 7 left
- 元大-大里 9 left
- 摩根大通 9 left
- 元大-大同 5 left
- 元大-頭份 4 left
Desks
- 華南永昌 -646
- 台中銀 -482
- 凱基-大安 -374
- 凱基-台北 -359
Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.
Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.
Historical evidence
Valuation regime and subsequent returns
Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.
| PE percentile band | Sample days | 240-day avg return | Median | Win rate | Avg excess (vs index) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20 | 547 | +13.7% | +7.3% | 69.1% | -2% |
| 20-40 | 655 | +33.5% | +19.6% | 75.4% | +14.5% |
| 40-60 | 411 | +15.4% | +11.5% | 71.3% | -4.7% |
| 60-80 | 479 | +7.3% | +7.1% | 71.4% | -12.3% |
| 80-100 You are here | 696 | +7.8% | +2.3% | 51.4% | -8.6% |
Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.
Current PE ≈ 19.04, at the 95.1th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).
Valuation × momentum historical grid
Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.
Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum down”: across 352 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 2.7%, win rate 70.2%, lagged the market by 12.7%.
Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.
Signals not active (historical stats for reference)
These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.
252-day price high (breakout)
PendingAdjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.
26 times historically; 60-day forward avg +7.82%, win rate 53.8%, beating the market by +5.52 pts on average.
Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)
PendingMonthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).
63 times historically; 60-day forward avg +4.16%, win rate 50.8%, beating the market by +2.81 pts on average.
Foreign net buying for 5 straight days
PendingForeign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.
53 times historically; 60-day forward avg +2.59%, win rate 52.9%, beating the market by -0.84 pts on average.
What does 光隆 do? Company profile
Overview
8916 對應證券為光隆實業股份有限公司，普通股，上櫃公司。公司創立於 1966 年，Yahoo 股市公司資料列示成立日為 1966/02/17，1999/04/20 上櫃；總部位於台北市大安區敦化南路二段105號16樓。公司代表人、董事長與總經理為詹賀博。公開公司登記資料顯示實收資本額約新台幣 1,505,791,510 元；Yahoo/Goodinfo 顯示股本約 15.06 至 15.14 億元，差異可能來自資料更新時點與庫藏股註銷。員工規模依 104 與政大職涯平台約 4,501 至 4,539 人，屬全球廠區口徑推估。主要股東與內部人方面，富聯網 2026/05 董監持股顯示：歐立投資股份有限公司-詹賀博持股 12,700 張、約 8.43%；悅生投資有限公司-詹馥如持股 4,013 張、約 2.67%；詹賀博本人另以總經理身分持股 1,523 張、約 1.01%；董事、監察人合計持股 11.69%，內部人合計持股 14.35%。公司官方說明其為台灣羽絨產業唯一整合上游羽絨原料精洗與下游成衣、家居紡織製造的掛牌公司，除台灣外，於越南、中國昆山等地設廠，近年並布局印尼與孟加拉協力產能。
Business
光隆從羽絨原料加工起家，現行主要業務包括成衣事業、羽絨原料事業、家居紡織製品事業與寢具自有品牌。成衣事業以 OEM/ODM 代工為主，核心產品為戶外機能服飾、滑雪服、登山外套、GORE-TEX/貼條外套、羽絨外套、睡袋、工作服、休閒服飾、運動服等；公司採少量多樣、U 型產線與一站式服務，鎖定高階戶外品牌、Tier 2 至 Tier 4 品牌與新興品牌。羽絨原料事業涵蓋羽絨原毛採購、精洗、加工、撥水/蓄熱等功能性羽絨，供應成衣、寢具與家具用途。家紡與寢具主要接受客戶委託代工，產品包含羽絨被、寢具、家居紡織品，也有自有品牌 BBL 快眠工房。營收結構方面，MoneyDJ 與公司法說資料彙整顯示 2024 年成衣製造約 61% 至 61.4%，羽絨約 19% 至 19.2%，家紡製品約 19%；鉅亨 2025 年第二季報導則列示當季事業群比重為成衣 61%、羽絨原料 26%、家紡 12%。區域上，外銷為主，歷史資料指出約 97% 營收來自外銷；美國、日本為主要市場，歐洲、韓國及其他市場為補充。主要客戶依公司法說與二手整理資料包括 Columbia Sportswear、Marmot、Mountain Hardwear、Eddie Bauer、REI、prAna、Black Diamond、Nitori、東京西川、Mont-Bell、66°North、NORRØNA、Haglöfs、Helly Hansen、Mammut、Fjällräven、Rab 等；其中 Nitori 為家紡重要客戶。商業模式為接單式代工與垂直整合製造，透過羽絨原料能力、機能服飾工藝、海外多產地配置與彈性產線，服務品牌商與大型通路客戶。
Outlook 2025–2028
2025 年：公司公開說明成衣、羽絨與家紡三大業務持穩向上；以美元計，成衣接單狀況良好，全年業績看好優於前一年，羽絨原料在價穩量增下保有雙位數成長，家紡大致持平。2025 年主要觀察點為美國關稅與客戶交期調整、匯率波動、品牌庫存恢復速度，以及家紡新客戶出貨節奏。2026 年：依 2026/03 法說新聞，成衣訂單能見度已逾 60% 並延伸至第三季，全年營收力拚雙位數成長；越南廠稼動率已超過 80%，印尼產區穩定出貨，孟加拉協力廠已擴充到九家，預計第二季底至第三季初開始出貨並逐步放大產能。公司也切入國防紡織裝備，例如手榴彈袋、彈匣袋等標案，若資格認證與標案拓展順利，可成為中長期補充動能。2027 年：印尼合資新廠依外部整理資料規劃分期擴產至 38 條線並於 2027 年全產能開出；若執行順利，將強化多產地配置與量大價平運動服接單能力。2028 年：中長期目標為提高成衣營收比重至約 70%，使毛利率與營業利益結構更依賴高附加價值機能服飾；同時透過資產活化與日本商用不動產租金收益平滑景氣波動。主要風險包括美國與各國關稅政策變動、台幣升值造成匯損與報價壓力、羽絨原料價格與禽流感影響供給、戶外品牌庫存循環與消費景氣、客戶集中與轉單不確定性、越南/印尼/孟加拉產能爬坡執行、勞工與 ESG 稽核要求、地緣政治與物流中斷。
Supply Chain
- 羽絨原毛供應商群 主要原料來源涵蓋中國、歐洲、冰島、東南亞等禽類羽毛/羽絨原料供應鏈；公司未公開揭露個別供應商名稱，屬原料來源地與產業鏈描述。
- W. L. Gore & Associates GORE-TEX 防水透濕材料與認證體系相關企業，未上市私人公司；光隆具備 GORE-TEX、貼條外套等機能服飾製造能力，未確認其為直接採購供應商。
- 遠東新世紀 1402 台股上市紡織纖維、聚酯與機能布料供應鏈代表；列為光隆所處成衣代工產業的可能上游材料生態系企業，未確認為光隆直接供應商。
- 台灣化學纖維 1326 台股上市化纖與紡織原料供應鏈代表；列為產業上游材料生態系企業，未確認為光隆直接供應商。
- Columbia Sportswear 美國上市戶外服飾品牌商，非台股掛牌；外部資料與公司法說整理列為光隆美國市場主要戶外品牌客戶之一。
- Nitori Holdings（宜得利） 日本上市大型家居零售商，非台股掛牌；外部資料列為光隆家紡重要客戶，家紡業務主要下游客戶之一。
- Marmot / Mountain Hardwear / Eddie Bauer / REI / prAna / Black Diamond 美國戶外品牌與通路客戶群，包含上市公司旗下品牌、私人公司或合作社，皆非台股掛牌；外部資料列為光隆成衣事業主要終端品牌客戶。
- Mont-Bell、東京西川、Haglöfs、Helly Hansen、Mammut、Fjällräven、Rab 等 日本與歐洲戶外/家居品牌客戶群，非台股掛牌；外部資料列為光隆日本與歐洲市場下游品牌及通路。
- 國防紡織裝備採購單位 2026 年法說新聞指出公司已投入國防相關標案並取得部分實績，屬新應用下游客戶群；具體採購單位與金額未完整公開。
Competitors
- 廣越企業 4438 台股上市成衣代工廠，外部資料列為光隆在戶外機能服飾代工的主要台灣競爭對手；廣越規模較大，光隆則以少量多樣與垂直整合差異化。
- 儒鴻企業 1476 台股上市紡織與成衣垂直整合大廠，為運動機能服飾與成衣代工領域競爭者。
- 聚陽實業 1477 台股上市成衣代工大廠，客戶與產品定位較大眾服飾與快時尚，但在全球成衣代工產能與品牌客戶競爭上與光隆同業。
- 冠星-KY 4439 台股上市成衣代工公司，為紡織成衣製造同業，與光隆在國際品牌成衣供應鏈上有競爭關係。
- 振大環球 4441 台股上市成衣代工公司，為國際品牌服飾供應鏈同業；產品組合與客戶結構不完全相同，但屬同產業競爭者。
Sources（19）
This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.
Method and limitations
- All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
- Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
- Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
- Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
- Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.
This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.