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1235

興泰 Food As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

steady quality, premium valuation, no active signal today.

This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 興泰 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.

Is 興泰 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 52th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ -4.1%.
Valuation is high.PE is in the 99th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 98th percentile.
Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 1.9% of volume (net buy).

Chip flow

Bullish +0.23

BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
統一-敦南 holds 300 lots
sellers have 47 lots left, ~29 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -15% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

Largest holder 統一-敦南 has accumulated 300 lots since the start (sold 0%), holding.
Main distributor 凱基-台北 peaked at 43 lots, has sold 33%, 29 left, ~29 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +0.40pp, mid holders -1, retail +0.13pp — concentration shifting upward.
Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -17 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).

Branch inventory reconstruction

Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.

Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.

Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.

Accumulating

統一-敦南花旗環球台灣摩根士丹利高橋-內壢台灣企銀-桃園群益金鼎-延平

Distributing

凱基-台北摩根大通永豐金-市政元大證券華南永昌永豐金證券

Desks

own scale

國票-和平元大-嘉義元大-松山美林

Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline

Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

統一-敦南 +300

sold 0%
花旗環球 +77

sold 0%· still adding
台灣摩根士丹利 +52

sold 12%
高橋-內壢 +20

sold 5%· still adding
台灣企銀-桃園 +16

sold 6%· still adding
群益金鼎-延平 +15

sold 0%

Distributing

凱基-台北 29 left

sold 33%· ~29 sessions to clear
摩根大通 9 left

sold 64%· ~10 sessions to clear
永豐金-市政 9 left

sold 63%· paused recently
元大證券 4 left

sold 71%· ~13 sessions to clear
華南永昌 1 left

sold 88%· paused recently
永豐金證券 4 left

sold 43%· paused recently

Desks

國票-和平 -301

unclassified
元大-嘉義 -129

unclassified
元大-松山 -53

unclassified
美林 -37

hedge desk · will cover

Still selling 47 lots ~29 sessions to bottom at most

Recent buy/sell force +61 absorbed / -26 sold buyers slightly ahead

Hedge-desk net short -13 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure

TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check

>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Mixed direction: big-holder and retail changes are not aligned.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

0-20 +15.6%

20-40 +32%

40-60 +44%

60-80 +63.5%

80-100 -1.9% Now

PE percentile band	Sample days	240-day avg return	Median	Win rate	Avg excess (vs index)
0-20	693	+15.6%	+18.9%	89%	+6.9%
20-40	446	+32%	+25.3%	79.8%	+11.7%
40-60	616	+44%	+41.9%	91.9%	+19.7%
60-80	391	+63.5%	+77.3%	85.4%	+59.4%
80-100 You are here	141	-1.9%	+15.6%	57.4%	-28.8%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 555.26, at the 98.1th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation

Momentum

Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)

Mid

Expensive (own-history top 1/3)

60-day momentum up

+8.3%

Win rate 81.7% Excess +2.3%

644d

+21.3%

Win rate 72.7% Excess +13.7%

865d

Now

-2.6%

Win rate 46.3% Excess -6.3%

177d

60-day momentum down

+9.5%

Win rate 71.6% Excess +4.8%

395d

+25.1%

Win rate 78% Excess +5.7%

173d

+15.7%

Win rate 85.6% Excess +12.5%

90d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 177 historical days, 120-day forward avg declined 2.6%, win rate 46.3%, lagged the market by 6.3%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

34 times historically; 60-day forward avg +4.25%, win rate 58.8%, beating the market by +1.93 pts on average.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Pending

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

58 times historically; 60-day forward avg +4.52%, win rate 61.4%, beating the market by -1.89 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

30 times historically; 60-day forward avg -2.29%, win rate 51.9%, beating the market by -6.16 pts on average.

What does 興泰 do? Company profile

食品工業；飼料製造上市

Overview

興泰實業股份有限公司為台灣證券交易所上市普通股，證券代號1235。依臺灣證券交易所OpenAPI上市公司基本資料，出表日115/06/16之公司名稱為興泰實業股份有限公司，簡稱興泰，產業別02食品工業，住址為高雄市仁武區高楠公路10號，統一編號85617982，董事長為美安生化科技股份有限公司（代表人楊淑樺），總經理葉文籐，發言人王麗雯，成立日期1972/11/15，上市日期2000/09/11，普通股每股面額新台幣10元，實收資本額1,885,778,360元，已發行普通股188,577,836股，無特別股，網站www.goldenbrand.com.tw。鉅亨網與Goodinfo亦列示資本額約18.85至18.86億元、公司地址高雄市仁武區高楠公路10號、主要經營業務為飼料。員工規模方面，Google Finance揭露員工人數37人；Goodinfo揭露2025年全體員工平均年薪37.9萬元。主要股東與董事持股方面，公開新聞與公司登記資訊顯示2026年2月全面改選後法人董事包括昇鋒投資、同安化工企業、美安生化科技，選任時持股數分別約6,156,954股、33,988,650股、19,184,620股；另富邦eBroker資料列示安鼎投資持股約83,787張、44.43%，美安生化約19,185張、10.17%，但不同公開來源在股東結構揭露口徑有落差，故主要股東資訊以「公開來源顯示」而非完整前十大股東名冊解讀。

Business

興泰本業為金牌飼料之製造、加工、買賣與飼料原料採購運銷，產品涵蓋禽畜用完全配合飼料與水產養殖完全配合飼料。公司官網產品介紹稱其為專業飼料製造廠，產品包含豬、雞、牛、鴨、鵝、鵪鶉等禽畜用飼料，以及魚、蝦等水產養殖飼料。MoneyDJ產業百科整理，興泰成立於1972年11月，由關係企業泰華油脂、泰成粉廠等創立，總部及工廠位於高雄仁武；原以畜產飼料為主，1987年起興建水產飼料廠，1990年及1992年擴建水產生產線，1998年擴建蝦料生產線。2024年產品營收結構由MoneyDJ揭露為飼料100%，其中魚用飼料76%、蝦用飼料9%、犬貓用飼料6%、單味飼料6%。主要原料為玉米、豆粉、魚粉、麵粉，來源多為美國、智利、秘魯、泰國進口或台灣廠商供應，因此毛利與營運高度受國際穀物、魚粉、匯率與海運成本影響。市場銷售以中南部業者為主，MoneyDJ稱占總銷量80%以上，外銷至中國大陸、東南亞、南亞等地；公司網站與就業平台資料亦稱產品供應國內養殖戶並外銷東南亞、南亞。商業模式為採購大宗飼料原料，於高雄仁武進行配方研發、生產與加工，透過自有品牌與通路銷售給水產養殖戶、畜牧戶、經銷商及外銷客戶。除本業外，興泰近年與福懋油脂（1225）有重大股權與經營權關係；財訊報導稱興泰本身持有福懋油12.34%，加計具控制力子公司合計達29.06%，此投資使財報評價、治理與流動性風險受到市場關注。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025至2028年展望以「水產飼料高占比、台灣內需成熟、海外水產養殖成長、原料成本波動、轉投資與治理風險」為核心。成長動能方面，興泰2024年營收幾乎全為飼料，且魚用與蝦用飼料合計約85%，若全球與東南亞水產養殖需求持續擴張，將有利於其水產配方、蝦料與高經濟魚種飼料產品。外部產業資料顯示，全球水產飼料市場2025至2029年仍有中高個位數年複合成長，台灣水產飼料內需成長有限，但具技術、品牌或外銷能力者可透過東南亞與海外市場受益。營運面，2026年前5月興泰累計營收81,794千元、年增46.89%，但5月單月營收7,962千元、年減37.98%，顯示低基期下仍有月度波動；2026年第1季EPS約-0.54元，仍需觀察本業量價改善是否能轉化為獲利。產品與技術方向上，推估公司可聚焦魚蝦料、犬貓料、單味飼料、低污染與高飼料轉換率配方、魚粉替代蛋白與客製化水產飼料，但目前未查得公司對2025至2028年具體擴產或新技術資本支出指引。主要風險包括：一、玉米、黃豆粉、魚粉、麵粉等原料多依賴進口，受CBOT農產品、魚粉供需、匯率、航運與氣候影響；二、台灣飼料與水產養殖市場競爭激烈，統一、卜蜂、大成、福壽、台榮、福懋油、大統益、茂生農經等同業具規模或通路優勢；三、台灣畜牧與水產養殖戶面臨疫病、極端氣候、環保與用地限制，會影響飼料需求；四、福懋油轉投資與經營權事件、財報補正與公司治理爭議，可能影響興泰資產評價、投資人信心與資金調度；五、公司市值與成交量相對小，股價流動性與波動風險較高。整體而言，若原料成本穩定、魚蝦料比重維持高水準、外銷市場順利，2025至2028年本業具溫和改善機會；但在未有明確擴產計畫與官方長期財測下，成長性仍屬中低可見度。

Supply Chain

Upstream

大統益 1232 黃豆、黃豆粉、脫殼豆粉等大宗油籽加工品為飼料產業常用原料；農業部飼料原料行情列示黃豆粉與脫殼豆粉之大統益報價，屬興泰可能採購或參考之台灣原料供應鏈，未能確認為興泰指定供應商。
福懋油脂 1225 生產黃豆粉、玉米、飼料等大宗原料與飼料產品，與興泰同屬油脂飼料產業鏈；興泰亦持有福懋油重大股權，兼具上游原料、同業與轉投資關係。
聯華實業控股 1229 麵粉與穀物加工為飼料配方可能使用原料來源之一；屬台灣上市食品與穀物加工企業，未確認為興泰直接供應商。
台榮產業 1220 飼料、黃豆粉、油脂相關業者，可能在大宗飼料原料與飼料產品市場形成供應鏈或同業關係；未確認為興泰直接供應商。
美國、智利、秘魯、泰國原料供應商 MoneyDJ指出興泰重要原料玉米、豆粉、魚粉、麵粉多由美國、智利、秘魯、泰國進口或由台灣廠商供應；個別供應商名稱未公開。
國際玉米、黃豆、魚粉與麵粉貿易商興泰主要原料包含玉米、豆粉、魚粉、麵粉，受國際大宗商品、匯率與運費影響；未查得具名直接供應商。

Downstream

台灣中南部水產養殖戶 MoneyDJ稱興泰產品以供應中南部地區業者為主，總銷量占比80%以上；魚用與蝦用飼料是主要營收來源，下游客戶多為魚、蝦養殖業者。
台灣禽畜養殖戶與畜牧場公司官網列示豬、雞、牛、鴨、鵝、鵪鶉等禽畜用完全配合飼料；下游為養豬、養雞、養鴨等畜牧戶與相關經銷通路。
中國大陸、東南亞、南亞外銷客戶公司簡介與MoneyDJ均指出產品外銷中國大陸、東南亞、南亞等地；具體客戶多為當地養殖戶、經銷商或飼料通路，未公開名單。
寵物食品或犬貓料通路客戶 MoneyDJ列示2024年犬貓用飼料占營收約6%，下游可能為寵物飼料通路或品牌客戶；未查得具名客戶。

Competitors

統一企業 1216 大型食品與飼料企業，具原料採購、品牌與通路規模；MoneyDJ列為國內飼料同業。
大成長城 1210 肉品、飼料與食品垂直整合業者，為畜產飼料與養殖鏈競爭者；MoneyDJ列為國內飼料同業。
台灣卜蜂 1215 畜禽、飼料與肉品整合業者，具規模與品牌優勢；MoneyDJ列為國內飼料同業。
泰山企業 1218 食品油脂與相關原料業者，部分公開資料列為油脂飼料同業競爭者。
福壽實業 1219 飼料、油脂、食品與肥料業者，與興泰在飼料產品及原料採購市場競爭。
台榮產業 1220 飼料、油脂與黃豆加工相關企業，MoneyDJ列為國內飼料同業。
福懋油脂 1225 油脂、黃豆粉與飼料業者；與興泰同業競爭且有重大轉投資及經營權關係，2025年曾因財報未如期申報遭暫停交易風險關注。
聯華實業控股 1229 麵粉、穀物與食品原料供應商，部分公開資料列為油脂飼料同業。
大統益 1232 黃豆壓榨、油脂與黃豆粉供應商，與飼料產業上游高度相關，也可能在油脂飼料鏈形成競爭或替代關係。
茂生農經 1240 上櫃農畜飼料及畜牧相關企業，為台灣動物飼料產業競爭者。
中日國際企業公開資料列為飼料同業，但臺灣證券交易所資料顯示中日國際1212已終止上市，故stock_id依規範設為null。

Sources（20）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.