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1313

聯成 Plastics As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

quality needs a look, fair valuation.

1 active signal
Foreign buy
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 聯成 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 66Quality 30Growth 43Momentum 41Chips 80

Is 聯成 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Weak profitability.Operating margin is in the 32th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 0.3%.

  • Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 35th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 36th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 5.9% of volume (net buy).

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Foreign net buying 5 straight days are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bearish -0.38
BearishNeutralBullish

Distribution to retail — bearish

  • Distribution to retail — bearish
  • 國票-北高雄 holds 8,054 lots
  • sellers have 2,753 lots left, ~2895 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +4% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 國票-北高雄 has accumulated 8,054 lots since the start (sold 0%), holding.
  • Main distributor 新光 peaked at 3,136 lots, has sold 83%, 523 left, ~2 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -0.95pp, mid holders -8, retail +1.49pp — drifting down to retail.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -10,085 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
國票-北高雄凱基-台北凱基-站前元富-高雄元大證券凱基-中港
Distributing
新光光和-高雄國泰-敦南元大-沙鹿凱基-斗六康和-高雄
Desks
own scale
國泰證券美商高盛台灣摩根士丹利華南永昌-高雄
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 國票-北高雄 +8,054
    sold 0%
  • 凱基-台北 +1,873
    sold 18%· still adding
  • 凱基-站前 +1,616
    sold 9%
  • 元富-高雄 +1,060
    sold 0%
  • 元大證券 +1,047
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 凱基-中港 +905
    sold 0%

Distributing

  • 新光 523 left
    sold 83%· ~2 sessions to clear
  • 光和-高雄 776 left
    sold 63%· ~7 sessions to clear
  • 國泰-敦南 579 left
    sold 37%· ~2895 sessions to clear
  • 元大-沙鹿 134 left
    sold 84%· paused recently
  • 凱基-斗六 199 left
    sold 72%· ~4 sessions to clear
  • 康和-高雄 91 left
    sold 85%· paused recently

Desks

  • 國泰證券 -15,747
    unclassified
  • 美商高盛 -4,267
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 台灣摩根士丹利 -2,537
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 華南永昌-高雄 -2,049
    unclassified
Still selling 2,753 lots ~2895 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +4,280 absorbed / -4,779 sold sellers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -9,787 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Weak direction: big-holder share fell while retail share rose.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Active · now 9%

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

65 historical occurrences (since 2012-05-16)
Average forward return after Foreign net buying for 5 straight days。20-day: Win 52.3%, Sample 65, Median +0.81%, Excess +0.65%, Beat mkt rate 53.8%；60-day: Win 45.3%, Sample 64, Median -0.81%, Excess -2.61%, Beat mkt rate 35.9%；120-day: Win 51.6%, Sample 62, Median +0.27%, Excess -4.58%, Beat mkt rate 25.8%

120 days after: historical avg +2.59%

20-day +1.21%
60-day +1.08%
120-day +2.59%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
52.3%
45.3%
51.6%
Sample
65
64
62
Median
+0.81%
-0.81%
+0.27%
Excess
+0.65%
-2.61%
-4.58%
Beat mkt rate
53.8%
35.9%
25.8%

Over 62 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 2.59%, lagged the market by 4.58 pts; win rate 51.6%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 235-22.7% -25.5% 9.4% -27%
20-40 You are here268+22% +35.6% 68.7% +8.8%
40-60 85+19.8% +34.4% 64.7% -21.6%
60-80 237+32.7% +35.4% 74.3% +6.1%
80-100 713+33.6% +21.6% 55.3% +13.2%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 10.68, at the 36.4th percentile of its own history (20-40 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
-5.7%
Win rate 40.8% Excess -7.4%
260d
+20.9%
Win rate 81.9% Excess +11.2%
171d
+22%
Win rate 67.2% Excess +8.9%
418d
60-day momentum down
-8.2%
Win rate 18.6% Excess -7.7%
242d
Now
-2.2%
Win rate 14.5% Excess -11%
69d
+10.1%
Win rate 39.2% Excess -1.4%
498d

Currently in “Mid × 60-day momentum down”: across 69 historical days, 120-day forward avg declined 2.2%, win rate 14.5%, lagged the market by 11%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

25 times historically; 60-day forward avg +5.02%, win rate 60%, beating the market by +0.31 pts on average.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Pending

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

69 times historically; 60-day forward avg +2.81%, win rate 46.9%, beating the market by -0.17 pts on average.

What does 聯成 do? Company profile

塑膠工業／石化下游，可塑劑、酸酐、PVC 與特用化學品 台灣證券交易所上市

Overview

1313 對應證券為台灣證券交易所上市普通股「聯成」，公司全名聯成化學科技股份有限公司，英文名 UPC TECHNOLOGY CORPORATION。公司成立於 1976 年 8 月 14 日，1989 年 3 月 27 日上市，總部位於台北市南港區南港路一段 209 號 A 棟 9 樓，工廠與營運據點涵蓋台灣高雄林園、中國大陸中山、珠海、鎮江、泰興、盤錦，以及馬來西亞關丹等地。董事長為苗豐強，總經理為畢淑蒨。2025 年年報揭露截至 2025 年底股本約新台幣 13,308,461 千元；2026 年 3 月 31 日員工合計 1,784 人，其中台灣 229 人、海外子公司 1,555 人。主要股東依 2026 年 3 月 28 日年報資料包括聯華實業控股持股 31.93%、聯強國際 5.18%、林高煌 2.25%、美安投資 1.96%、義源投資 1.62%、利百代國際實業 1.55%、資豐投資 1.31%、神達電腦 1.22%、花旗受託保管波露寧新興市場基金投資專戶 1.15%、通達投資 1.09%。公司屬聯華神通集團化學事業成員。

Business

聯成為全球大型苯酐與可塑劑供應商，核心商業模式為採購辛醇、鄰二甲苯、異壬醇、正丁烷、VCM 等石化原料，經氧化、酯化、聚合等製程生產酸酐、可塑劑、PVC 與特用化學品，銷售至 PVC 加工、建材、電線電纜、汽車內裝、醫療器材、玩具、食品包裝、鞋材、合成皮革、塗料、接著劑與工業材料等客戶。2025 年年報揭露營收結構：可塑劑類 77%、酸酐類 7%、PVC 11%，其餘為聚酯多元醇、不飽和聚酯樹脂、脂肪酸酯等特用化學品。主要產品包括 DEHP/DOP、DINP、DPHP、DBP、DOTP、DINT、TOTM、TINTM、DOA、DINA、DPHA、DINCH、聚酯可塑劑、線性可塑劑、ESBO、生質可塑劑、PA、FA、MA、PVC、UPR、Polyester Polyol、Fatty Ester。2025 年銷售地區以外銷亞洲為主，亞洲約新台幣 558.12 億元、占 95%，其他外銷 2%，台灣內銷 3%；單一銷貨客戶未達年度銷貨 10%，顯示客戶分散。公司可塑劑中國大陸市占率約 23%、全球市占率約 14.7%。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025 至 2028 年展望重點在修復獲利、降低低利產品比重、開發高值化與低碳產品、擴大海外市場。2025 年公司合併營收新台幣 587.66 億元，仍稅後淨損 15.54 億元、每股虧損 1.17 元，但較 2024 年稅後淨損 23.84 億元改善；產量 243 萬噸、年增 3%，銷量 198 萬噸。成長動能包括：一、異辛醇新產能釋出使供應充足、價格趨穩，有助增塑劑利差修復；二、公司將降低 PA 等低利產品銷售比重，增加 INA 系列與其他高毛利產品；三、開發非鄰苯、低氣味、耐高溫、高分子、醫療級、車用、玩具、AI 基礎設施相關電線電纜、低碳與生質可塑劑；四、利用 rPET 開發 rDOTP、rDINT、rDINCD 等低碳綠色可塑劑；五、深化日本、東南亞、印度、中東與中南美市場，林園廠苯酐已於 2025 年 11 月取得印度 BIS 認證，有助拓展印度市場。主要風險包括中國大陸 PVC、可塑劑與苯酐產能過剩、大型煉化一體化業者加入競爭、房地產與基建需求疲弱、油價與原料價格波動、中美貿易摩擦、關稅與保護主義、歐盟 REACH、韓國 K-REACH、印度 BIS、碳足跡與低碳採購要求提高，以及化工廠安環法規與工安環保事件風險。2026 至 2028 年具體財務數字無公開可靠預測，以上為依公司年報策略與產業趨勢之研究判斷。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • W 供應商 2025 年主要供應商，年報未揭露真實名稱，2025 年進貨金額約新台幣 103.49 億元、占進貨淨額 18%；供應品項推估屬辛醇、鄰二甲苯、異壬醇或其他石化原料，實際品項未揭露。
  • 辛醇供應商 辛醇為可塑劑重要原料，來源為國內供應及國外進口，採合約供應；公司未揭露具名供應商。
  • 鄰二甲苯供應商 鄰二甲苯為苯酐原料，來源為國內供應及國外進口，採合約供應；公司未揭露具名供應商。
  • 異壬醇供應商 異壬醇為 DINP 等可塑劑原料，來源為國內供應及國外進口，採合約供應；公司未揭露具名供應商。
  • 台灣中油股份有限公司 未上市國營石化與能源公司；可作為台灣石化上游原料體系重要供應者，但聯成最新年報未具名確認其為主要供應商。
Downstream
  • PVC 加工與建材客戶群 聯成可塑劑與 PVC 下游客戶，應用於硬軟質 PVC 製品、管件、水管、塑膠地板、膠布、發泡膠皮、鞋材、家具、膠帶等；單一銷貨客戶未達總銷貨 10%，公司未具名揭露。
  • 電線電纜與電子基礎設施客戶群 DPHP、DOTP、TOTM、聚酯可塑劑、線性可塑劑等用於 UL 60 至 105 度電線電纜、耐高壓電線與 AI 基礎設施相關應用；具名客戶未揭露。
  • 汽車內裝與車用材料客戶群 DPHP、TOTM、線性可塑劑、生質與特殊可塑劑應用於汽車皮革、內飾、底塗與高壓電線；年報稱部分高附加價值產品已切入日本車用客戶，但未揭露客戶名稱。
  • 醫療、玩具、食品包裝客戶群 DINCH、ESBO、生質可塑劑與醫療級可塑劑用於醫療器材、兒童玩具、食品接觸材、包裝薄膜、手套、地板等；年報稱部分產品已切入國際醫療及玩具客戶，但未揭露客戶名稱。
  • 萬泰科技股份有限公司 6190 台灣上櫃電線電纜與電子材料公司；MoneyDJ 產業資料列為聯成 DOP 主要客戶之一，但公司最新年報未具名列示。

Competitors

  • 南亞塑膠工業股份有限公司 1303 台灣上市塑膠與石化公司，與聯成在 PVC、塑化材料及部分下游材料領域具競合關係；MoneyDJ 列為競爭對手之一。
  • 台灣塑膠工業股份有限公司 1301 台灣上市 PVC、塑膠原料與石化公司，與聯成 PVC 及塑化鏈條具競爭關係。
  • 華夏海灣塑膠股份有限公司 1305 台灣上市 PVC 及塑膠原料公司，與聯成 PVC 產品及下游應用市場具競爭關係。
  • 台灣聚合化學品股份有限公司 1304 台灣上市塑化公司，雖主要產品與聯成不完全相同，但同屬塑化與泛用樹脂族群，受相近景氣循環影響。
  • 國喬石油化學股份有限公司 1312 台灣上市石化公司，與聯成同屬石化下游與塑膠工業供應鏈，部分客戶與景氣變數重疊。
  • BASF 德國上市全球化工公司；MoneyDJ 列為聯成國際競爭對手之一。
  • LG Chem 韓國上市化工公司；MoneyDJ 列為聯成國際競爭對手之一。
  • Hanwha Solutions 韓國上市化工與材料公司；MoneyDJ 列為聯成國際競爭對手之一。
  • AK Chemical 韓國化工業者；MoneyDJ 列為聯成國際競爭對手之一。
  • DuPont 美國上市特用材料與化工公司；MoneyDJ 列為聯成國際競爭對手之一。
Sources（13）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.