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1321
quality needs a look, premium valuation, no active signal today.
Is 大洋 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first
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Weak profitability.Operating margin is in the 35th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 0.6%.
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Valuation is high.PE is in the 100th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 99th percentile.
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Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 2.7% of volume (net buy).
Chip flow
Institutional rotation, concentration steady — bullish
Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -5% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12
- Largest holder 國票-長城 has accumulated 1,282 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
- Main distributor 群益金鼎-敦南 peaked at 391 lots, has sold 35%, 254 left, paused recently.
- TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -0.30pp, mid holders +5, retail -1.47pp — little change.
- Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -105 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Accumulating
- 國票-長城 +1,282
- 元大-萬華 +533
- 美商高盛 +359
- 元富-松德 +308
- 元大-嘉義 +283
- 永豐金-竹科 +177
Distributing
- 群益金鼎-敦南 254 left
- 港商野村 25 left
- 台灣摩根士丹利 47 left
- 統一-城中 62 left
- 玉山證券 47 left
- 花旗環球 60 left
Desks
- 華南永昌-世貿 -1,056
- 國票-安和 -733
- 永豐金-新莊 -396
- 新光 -344
Mixed direction: big-holder and retail changes are not aligned.
Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.
Historical evidence
Valuation regime and subsequent returns
Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.
| PE percentile band | Sample days | 240-day avg return | Median | Win rate | Avg excess (vs index) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20 | 249 | -3% | -2.7% | 31.7% | -20.7% |
| 20-40 | 281 | +1.6% | +0.5% | 52% | +6.5% |
| 40-60 | 410 | +5.1% | +6.6% | 78.3% | -25.6% |
| 60-80 | 0 | Insufficient data | |||
| 80-100 You are here | 0 | Insufficient data | |||
Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.
Current PE ≈ 1847.5, at the 99.2th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).
Valuation × momentum historical grid
Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.
(0d)
(0d)
Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.
Signals not active (historical stats for reference)
These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.
252-day price high (breakout)
PendingAdjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.
18 times historically; 60-day forward avg -2.78%, win rate 44.4%, beating the market by -5.54 pts on average.
Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)
PendingMonthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).
37 times historically; 60-day forward avg +3.53%, win rate 51.5%, beating the market by -0.69 pts on average.
Foreign net buying for 5 straight days
PendingForeign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.
63 times historically; 60-day forward avg +2.22%, win rate 56.5%, beating the market by -2.08 pts on average.
What does 大洋 do? Company profile
Overview
大洋塑膠工業（市場簡稱「大洋」，英文簡稱 OPC）成立於1965年6月7日，1999年1月26日於台灣證券交易所上市，屬塑膠工業類股。總部位於台北市萬華區莒光路310號5、6樓。董事長兼總經理為陳欽明，發言人為邱俊福。實收資本額約新台幣22.72億元，已發行股數約2.27億股，股東人數約4,104人；外資持股約6.81%，前十大股東合計約5.92%（持股相對分散，屬家族經營色彩公司）。生產基地方面，原中和廠於2016年遷至桃園新屋，舊有中和廠區土地轉作資產開發；公司登記另有多處廠區。公司另透過轉投資（持有台灣氯乙烯工業、富致科技(6642)等公司股權，及債券型基金等金融資產）取得業外收益，近年稅後淨利率常高於營業利益率，業外收入為獲利重要來源。員工人數未在公開搜尋結果中明確取得。
Business
主要從事PVC（聚氯乙烯）塑膠原料之製造銷售，以及PVC加工與相關製品。依2024年事業部營收結構，約為：塑膠原料（PVC粉粒/混合料）約60.6%、加工事業（膠布）約18.8%、塑膠建材（塑膠管、板等）約17.2%、合成皮（PU/PVC人造皮）約3.4%（2023年比重約為原料65%、膠布18%、建材17%、合成皮2%）。膠布產品涵蓋透明、一般、硬質、印刷膠布等，應用於醫療設備、文具檔案夾、噴墨/廣告布、西裝套、包裝布、皮箱內層、雨傘布、雨衣、窗簾布等；合成皮應用於運動用品、球類、手套、鞋材、家具等。商業模式以塑膠原料報價買賣為主力（毛利率隨原油/VCM/PVC報價及景氣大幅波動），輔以加工品、建材與業外投資收益。年營收規模約新台幣46~47億元（近一年約46.83億元）；2025年受PVC景氣低迷影響，單月營收波動大（如2025年10月約2.70億元、年減約37%，2026年5月約3.62億元、年增約13%）。
Outlook 2025–2028
2025年產業逆風明顯：中國大陸PVC新產能大量投產（海灣化學、甘肅耀望、浙江嘉化等合計約80萬公噸）造成全球供過於求，加上中美貿易戰/關稅與終端需求疲弱，壓抑PVC報價與台廠塑化本業獲利（同業華夏2025年甚至轉為稅後淨損）。2026年起市場預期供給面轉趨緊縮、PVC報價有機會回升，塑化景氣可望逐步好轉，惟仍受地緣政治（油價）與中國產能消化進度牽動。對大洋而言，2025-2028年成長動能與題材包括：(1)PVC報價回升帶動原料事業毛利改善；(2)中和廠等都市型舊廠土地資產開發/處分，可望貢獻業外利益與資產重估價值（屬資產股題材）；(3)轉投資（如富致6642等）評價與處分損益挹注。主要風險：塑化原料景氣循環與報價波動造成本業獲利不穩（部分季度可能虧損）、中國PVC長期產能過剩的結構性壓力、關稅與匯率風險、資產開發進度與認列時點具不確定性、股利配發率偏低（約30-50%）。上述2026-2028展望多屬產業預期與題材推估，實際結果待後續財報驗證。
Supply Chain
- 台塑(台灣塑膠工業) 1301 上游PVC樹脂/VCM等石化原料主要供應來源之一
- 華夏(中國通用塑膠/華夏塑膠) 1305 上游PVC粉(樹脂)供應業者
- 聯成(聯成化學科技) 1313 上游增塑劑(塑化劑)/PVC相關原料供應業者
- 台灣氯乙烯工業(TVCM) VCM(氯乙烯單體)供應商，亦為大洋轉投資對象；其掛牌狀態未在公開搜尋中確認，故stock_id設為null
- 塑膠膠布/合成皮加工與成品製造業者 下游採購膠布、人造皮做雨衣傘、文具、廣告布、皮件、鞋材、運動用品、家具等，多為未上市加工廠與貿易商
- 營建與裝修通路 下游使用塑膠管、板等塑膠建材，多為未上市通路與工程商
- 醫療器材/包裝等終端應用客戶 下游將透明/印刷膠布應用於醫療設備、包裝、檔案文具等，多為未上市或海外客戶
Competitors
- 南亞(南亞塑膠工業) 1303 PVC粉/膠膜/膠布/人造皮等大型同業，產品線高度重疊
- 華夏(華夏塑膠) 1305 PVC粉(樹脂)主要生產同業
- 三芳(三芳化學工業) 1307 合成皮(人造皮)領域主要競爭同業
- 達新(達新工業) 1315 PVC膠布/雨衣雨具等塑膠加工品同業
- 聯成(聯成化學科技) 1313 PVC/塑化劑等塑膠產業同業
Sources（10）
This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.
Method and limitations
- All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
- Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
- Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
- Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
- Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.
This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.