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Help me set up FinLab and analyze 1417 嘉裕. Please read: https://finlab.finance/en/setup?stock=1417
1417
quality needs a look, fair valuation, no active signal today.
Is 嘉裕 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first
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Weak profitability.Operating margin is in the 22th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ -2.5%.
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Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 42th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 37th percentile.
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Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 3.8% of volume (net buy).
Chip flow
Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -3% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12
- Largest holder 新光-桃園 has accumulated 441 lots since the start (sold 4%), now trimming.
- Main distributor 富邦-陽明 peaked at 289 lots, has sold 26%, 215 left, ~44 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
- TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +0.19pp, mid holders +1, retail -0.60pp — concentration shifting upward.
- Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -107 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Accumulating
- 新光-桃園 +441
- 元大-太平 +436
- 永豐金-南投 +336
- 元大-淡水 +302
- 華南永昌-桃園 +289
- 元富-草屯 +222
Distributing
- 富邦-陽明 215 left
- 國票-敦北法人 87 left
- 兆豐-三重 52 left
- 新光 41 left
- 兆豐-中壢 17 left
- 兆豐-復興 19 left
Desks
- 玉山證券 -334
- 國票-桃園 -290
- 凱基-城中 -274
- 美商高盛 -192
Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.
Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.
Historical evidence
Valuation regime and subsequent returns
Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.
| PE percentile band | Sample days | 240-day avg return | Median | Win rate | Avg excess (vs index) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20 | 231 | +31.9% | +11.6% | 63.6% | -4.6% |
| 20-40 You are here | 117 | -8.6% | -8.3% | 1.7% | -52.3% |
| 40-60 | 210 | -11.3% | -9.7% | 41% | -105% |
| 60-80 | 133 | +2.3% | -2.1% | 40.6% | -21.4% |
| 80-100 | 215 | +4.7% | +0.8% | 52.1% | -30.5% |
Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.
Current PE ≈ 18.98, at the 37.4th percentile of its own history (20-40 band).
Valuation × momentum historical grid
Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.
Currently in “Mid × 60-day momentum down”: across 275 historical days, 120-day forward avg declined 8.7%, win rate 26.5%, lagged the market by 37.8%.
Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.
Signals not active (historical stats for reference)
These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.
252-day price high (breakout)
PendingAdjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.
20 times historically; 60-day forward avg -4.71%, win rate 25%, beating the market by -6.07 pts on average.
Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)
PendingMonthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).
50 times historically; 60-day forward avg +4.15%, win rate 51.1%, beating the market by -0.67 pts on average.
Foreign net buying for 5 straight days
PendingForeign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.
79 times historically; 60-day forward avg +0.25%, win rate 45.5%, beating the market by -4.65 pts on average.
What does 嘉裕 do? Company profile
Overview
嘉裕股份有限公司為台灣證交所上市普通股，ISIN 為 TW0001417004，產業別為紡織纖維。公司成立於1969/12/12，上市日期為1976/12/28，總部位於台北市大安區仁愛路四段25號7樓。董事長為陳陞，總經理為陳盈璋，實收資本額約新台幣18.99億元，已發行普通股約189,941,840股。公司前身資料顯示曾名為嘉裕紡織股份有限公司，主要經營業務為男女成衣。永續/ESG資料揭露員工人數約229人。主要治理與持股相關股東可確認包括法人董事台元紡織、詠欣投資，以及副董事長楊詠薇等；但最新完整前十大股東持股比例未能在可公開擷取資料中完整確認。公司屬裕隆集團相關體系。
Business
嘉裕核心業務為男士西服、男女成衣、休閒服飾、配件、MTM量身訂製、團體制服客製與企業禮贈品。自有品牌與服務包含 CARNIVAL、CARNIVAL GENERATION、HALFME、嘉裕西服門市/百貨櫃位與團體制服承作。商業模式包含自有品牌零售、百貨/直營門市通路、企業團服專案、客製化量身服務與部分資產出租活化。公司強調超過50年製衣與西服工藝、自設工廠、布料生產到設計與售後的一條龍服務，團體制服涵蓋正裝、襯衫、褲裝、裙裝、機能休閒服、POLO衫、帽T、大學T與高爾夫運動服飾。2025年前三季合併營收約2.37億元，年減約51%，主要因結束中國代理品牌業務及去年同期軍用庫存品銷售基期影響；台灣本業中自有品牌營收年增約5%、團服業務年增約4%，代理品牌營收大幅衰退。商品銷量結構上，法說資料揭露休閒品項佔比由2023SS約15%提升至2025FW約26%，正裝仍為主力品項。主要客戶/終端應用包括商務男裝消費者、百貨與直營零售客、企業團服與禮贈品客戶；2025年法說摘要提及團服新增客戶包括中華電信、圓山大飯店、麗寶建設、陽明海運等。
Outlook 2025–2028
2025至2028年展望重點在營運體質改善、台灣本業聚焦、通路展店、商品多元化、團服/禮贈品與資產活化。2025年前三季公司雖營收下滑，但因結束虧損大陸轉投資/代理品牌業務、費用下降與商品優化，稅後淨利轉正約0.34億元，EPS約0.18元，毛利率提升至約52%，負債比約17%，現金及有價金融商品投資約16.63億元，財務彈性相對充足。公司規劃以輕資產策略展店，2025年店櫃約19處，2026年目標新增2至4間門市或百貨專櫃，2027年目標達27間以上；推估2028年若展店與單店營收效率維持，零售通路與社區型門市可成為溫和成長來源。產品端將持續擴充休閒機能、高爾夫、戶外與配件，降低傳統正裝景氣循環與客群老化風險；團服端則透過企業制服、活動服、禮贈品與客製化解決方案提升客單價與專案黏著度。資產端以中壢廠區活化、第三方物流倉租招商與提升出租報酬率為目標。主要風險包括台灣男裝正裝市場長期成長有限、百貨與門市租金/人事成本、團服訂單集中造成營收波動、庫存與流行趨勢錯配、低價快時尚及電商競爭、布料/人工成本波動、展店效益不如預期，以及前瞻展望多來自公司法說計畫，2028年具高度執行不確定性。
Supply Chain
- 台元紡織股份有限公司 嘉裕法人董事/重要治理關係企業，屬紡織相關企業；未確認為直接原料供應商，非台股上市櫃公司。
- 遠東新世紀 1402 台灣上市紡纖上游代表公司，供應聚酯纖維、紗線、布料等產業上游材料；未確認為嘉裕直接供應商。
- 宏遠興業 1460 台灣上市紡織布料與成衣供應鏈公司，可視為功能布料/成衣產業上游與同業參考；未確認為嘉裕直接供應商。
- 儒鴻企業 1476 台灣上市針織布料與成衣製造商，屬紡織成衣供應鏈上游/同業標竿；未確認為嘉裕直接供應商。
Competitors
- 儒鴻企業 1476 台灣上市成衣與針織布料大廠，與嘉裕在成衣製造、機能服飾及紡織供應鏈能力上具同業比較意義，但儒鴻以國際品牌OEM/ODM為主，並非完全相同零售男裝模式。
- 聚陽實業 1477 台灣上市成衣代工大廠，主要服務國際服飾品牌，屬成衣製造同業標竿；與嘉裕自有品牌零售/團服模式不同。
- 宏遠興業 1460 台灣上市紡織布料與成衣公司，與嘉裕在機能布料、制服與成衣供應鏈方向具部分競合。
- 南緯實業 1467 台灣上市紡織成衣與針織相關公司，屬成衣供應鏈同業。
- 主富服裝（NET） 台灣服飾零售品牌，未上市；在平價服飾與男裝消費市場與嘉裕部分競爭。
- HANG TEN／台灣漢登 休閒服飾品牌，未上市；與嘉裕休閒服飾品項存在部分零售競爭。
Sources（10）
This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.
Method and limitations
- All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
- Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
- Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
- Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
- Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.
This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.