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1436

華友聯 Construction & Materials As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

quality needs a look, discounted valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 華友聯 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 83Quality 14Growth 82Momentum 4Chips 79

Is 華友聯 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Weak profitability.Operating margin is in the 11th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ -0.9%.

  • Valuation is low.PE is in the 10th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 46th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 5.5% of volume (net buy).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 44.6%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Neutral -0.06
BearishNeutralBullish

Institutional rotation, concentration steady — neutral

  • Institutional rotation, concentration steady — neutral
  • 土銀-高雄 holds 762 lots
  • sellers have 308 lots left, ~212 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -24% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 土銀-高雄 has accumulated 762 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 華南永昌-長虹 peaked at 174 lots, has sold 27%, 127 left, ~212 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -1.14pp, mid holders -4, retail +1.24pp — drifting down to retail.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -289 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
土銀-高雄美商高盛摩根大通土銀-建國新加坡商瑞銀元大-屏東民生
Distributing
華南永昌-長虹美林元大-博愛富邦-南員林花旗環球永豐金證券
Desks
own scale
宏遠證券元大-新店中正元大-新莊元大-天母
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 土銀-高雄 +762
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 美商高盛 +488
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 摩根大通 +463
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 土銀-建國 +231
    sold 0%
  • 新加坡商瑞銀 +179
    sold 1%· still adding
  • 元大-屏東民生 +177
    sold 0%

Distributing

  • 華南永昌-長虹 127 left
    sold 27%· ~212 sessions to clear
  • 美林 102 left
    sold 30%· paused recently
  • 元大-博愛 45 left
    sold 60%· paused recently
  • 富邦-南員林 80 left
    sold 25%· ~67 sessions to clear
  • 花旗環球 21 left
    sold 76%· ~35 sessions to clear
  • 永豐金證券 41 left
    sold 50%· paused recently

Desks

  • 宏遠證券 -2,592
    unclassified
  • 元大-新店中正 -574
    unclassified
  • 元大-新莊 -533
    unclassified
  • 元大-天母 -309
    unclassified
Still selling 308 lots ~212 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +881 absorbed / -120 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -91 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Weak direction: big-holder share fell while retail share rose.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 44.62%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

96 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 50%, Sample 94, Median +0.05%, Excess -0.87%, Beat mkt rate 44.7%；60-day: Win 53.2%, Sample 94, Median +0.98%, Excess -1.79%, Beat mkt rate 38.3%；120-day: Win 57.4%, Sample 94, Median +2.38%, Excess -3.21%, Beat mkt rate 33%

120 days after: historical avg +5.92%

20-day +0.77%
60-day +2.64%
120-day +5.92%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
50%
53.2%
57.4%
Sample
94
94
94
Median
+0.05%
+0.98%
+2.38%
Excess
-0.87%
-1.79%
-3.21%
Beat mkt rate
44.7%
38.3%
33%

Over 94 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 5.92%, lagged the market by 3.21 pts; win rate 57.4%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 327+13.5% -23.7% 46.2% -24.8%
20-40 463+44.8% +23.1% 94.2% +30.7%
40-60 You are here526+28.3% +11.5% 93% +16.4%
60-80 569+15.2% +7.4% 82.4% -2.6%
80-100 304+25.9% +5.7% 81.9% +1.6%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 10.87, at the 46.2th percentile of its own history (40-60 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
+10.6%
Win rate 75.8% Excess +1.3%
330d
+15.3%
Win rate 78.2% Excess +8.3%
767d
+22.9%
Win rate 57% Excess +13.5%
370d
60-day momentum down
-4.8%
Win rate 45.1% Excess -17.8%
370d
Now
+6.2%
Win rate 75% Excess -10%
264d
+1.7%
Win rate 61.4% Excess -9.4%
207d

Currently in “Mid × 60-day momentum down”: across 264 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 6.2%, win rate 75%, lagged the market by 10%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

29 times historically; 60-day forward avg +7.34%, win rate 62.1%, beating the market by +6.87 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

29 times historically; 60-day forward avg +6.05%, win rate 46.4%, beating the market by -0.61 pts on average.

What does 華友聯 do? Company profile

建材營造／營建開發 上市

Overview

1436 對應證券為華友聯開發股份有限公司，為台灣證券交易所上市普通股，非 ETF、ETN、權證、特別股或 REIT。公司成立於 1967 年 1 月 31 日，前身為福益實業股份有限公司，早期經營紡織，1988 年 4 月 11 日上市，2013 年更名為華友聯開發股份有限公司並轉型為不動產開發商。總部位於高雄市鳳山區文龍路85號11樓。董事長與總經理均為陸炤廷；發言人為吳家德。公開資料顯示實收資本額約新台幣 19.415 億元、已發行普通股約 194,151,795 股；部分公司官網頁面仍列舊資本額，故以較新的公司登記與市場資料為主。主要業務登記為住宅及大樓開發租售、不動產買賣、不動產租賃，並含休閒活動場館、餐館等項目。主要股東依公司揭露之 2024/7/30 前十大股東名單包括弘眾投資、良益投資、吉野投資、禾舜投資、冠金投資、陸炤文、陸炤廷、華友慶投資、京冠投資、張晉誠；該股東資料非 2026/6/17 即時股權。員工規模未在本次可查公開資料中取得穩定數字。

Business

華友聯目前是南台灣住宅開發商，核心商業模式為取得或整合土地，規劃住宅大樓、商業大樓或社區型建案，委託或透過關係營造公司施工，採預售與成屋銷售，於完工交屋時依會計準則認列收入；因此營收與獲利高度受個案完工交屋時點影響，月營收與季營收波動大。公開資料顯示 2023 年住宅及大樓開發租售約占營收 98%，為主要收入來源；其他業務包括不動產買賣、租賃及休憩事業。近年主要營收個案包括高雄 NeXT21、台南 CASA 等，2024 年兩案完工交屋推升營收與獲利；2025 年全年營收約 38.91 億元，較 2024 年高基期下滑。公司集團亦經營休憩事業如 H 會館、清水漾 Villa，並強調重劃、建築、休憩事業的整合。主要客戶為自住及換屋住宅買方、投資型買方、商用空間承租戶或買方；終端應用為住宅、店面、社區生活機能與旅宿休憩。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025 年至 2028 年展望的核心在於建案交屋週期與南台灣房市景氣。2025 年在 2024 年 CASA、NeXT21 高基期後，營收進入交屋節奏調整期；2026 年截至 5 月累計營收約 2.37 億元、年減約 48.41%，顯示短期仍受完工入帳空窗影響。中期成長動能來自公司在高雄、台南的土地庫存與推案，包括高雄華鳳特區約 302 戶、總銷約 38 億元，台南高鐵特區約 222 戶、總銷約 45 億元，台南 86 特區約 157 戶、總銷約 26 億元等規劃；左營「以山AI」預計 2027 年初交屋入帳，苓雅「知道明」與高雄大學特區「以學MDT」預計 2027 年第 3 季取得使用執照，將影響 2027 至 2028 年營收堆疊。公司也與台灣三井不動產合作，高雄衛武營、亞灣經貿段、台南高鐵武東段等合作案有助於品牌、規劃與資金/產品力，但合作效益仍取決於銷售去化與工程進度。產業趨勢方面，南台灣受高雄亞灣、台積電供應鏈、台南高鐵特區與重大公共建設支撐，但風險包括央行信用管制、房貸成數與利率、預售買氣轉冷、營建成本與缺工、土地取得成本高、建照/使照進度、單一區域集中，以及交屋認列使財報波動。2027-2028 若既有預售案順利取得使用執照並交屋，營收有機會回升；若房市去化放慢或政策收緊，則可能延後入帳或壓縮毛利。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 土地所有權人、地主與重劃/土地整合相關方 華友聯的開發流程以土地取得、整合、規劃為起點；多數土地交易對象為個人、法人或非上市櫃實體，未能逐案確認台股掛牌代號。
  • 華慶營造工程有限公司 華友聯 2015 年投資 100% 持有之子公司，屬營造施工與工程執行關係企業；未上市櫃。
  • 台灣三井不動產股份有限公司 日本三井不動產集團在台子公司，與華友聯於高雄衛武營、亞灣經貿段、台南高鐵武東段等案合作開發；非台股掛牌公司。
  • 建築師、設計、代銷、金融機構與建材供應商 住宅開發需仰賴規劃設計、營造、鋼筋水泥等建材、廣告代銷與銀行融資；本次未查得華友聯逐案揭露且可穩定驗證的上市櫃特定供應商名單。
Downstream
  • 住宅自住與換屋買方 主要終端客戶，購買華友聯住宅大樓或社區建案；多為個人客戶，非掛牌公司。
  • 投資型買方與商用空間買方/承租戶 公司亦有不動產買賣與租賃業務，終端包含店面、辦公或其他商用空間需求者；未能逐一確認上市櫃客戶。
  • H 會館與清水漾 Villa 等休憩事業消費者 集團休憩事業之旅宿與休閒服務終端客戶；相關營運主體非台股掛牌。

Competitors

  • 興富發建設 2542 台股上市大型建商，全台推案量大，與華友聯在住宅預售與成屋市場競爭。
  • 遠雄建設 5522 台股上市大型建商，近年亦在高雄等區域推案，與華友聯競爭土地、客戶與品牌能見度。
  • 聯上發 2537 台股上市建商，具高雄推案能量，為南部住宅市場競爭者。
  • 京城建設 2524 台股上市建商，深耕高雄房市，與華友聯在南部住宅市場直接競爭。
  • 隆大營建 5519 台股上櫃營建公司，業務含營造與建案開發，為南部建築市場同業。
  • 達麗建設 6177 台股上市建商，具全台住宅與商辦開發案，與華友聯在土地與住宅產品上競爭。
  • 國泰建設 2501 台股上市大型建商，品牌與資金規模較大，屬住宅開發同業。
  • 太子建設 2511 台股上市建商，於台南、高雄等南部市場具開發經驗，為區域同業競爭者。
Sources（15）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.