Ask AI to review this stock
Copy the prompt to get recent events, historical reactions, and a short research brief.
Tell your AI:
Help me set up FinLab and analyze 1616 億泰. Please read: https://finlab.finance/en/setup?stock=1616
1616
steady quality, fair valuation, no active signal today.
Is 億泰 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first
-
Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 47th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 2.4%.
-
Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 39th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 40th percentile.
-
Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -6.5% of volume (net sell).
Chip flow
Distribution to retail — bearish
Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -23% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12
- Largest holder 中國信託-高雄 has accumulated 800 lots since the start (sold 2%), still adding.
- Main distributor (牛牛牛)亞-鑫豐 peaked at 501 lots, has sold 42%, 293 left, ~488 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
- TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -0.98pp, mid holders -4, retail +1.90pp — drifting down to retail.
- Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -2,681 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Accumulating
- 中國信託-高雄 +800
- 元大-基隆孝二 +369
- 元大-南投 +360
- 兆豐證券 +242
- 華南永昌-大安 +239
- 臺銀-臺中 +216
Distributing
- (牛牛牛)亞-鑫豐 293 left
- 台新證券 65 left
- 國票證券 125 left
- 元大-苑裡 30 left
- 國泰-台中 60 left
- 港商野村 65 left
Desks
- 美商高盛 -1,163
- 台灣摩根士丹利 -1,093
- 新加坡商瑞銀 -1,072
- 凱基-台北 -823
Weak direction: big-holder share fell while retail share rose.
Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.
Historical evidence
Valuation regime and subsequent returns
Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.
| PE percentile band | Sample days | 240-day avg return | Median | Win rate | Avg excess (vs index) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20 | 90 | +20.5% | +6.8% | 64.4% | -50.2% |
| 20-40 You are here | 573 | +39.6% | +38.3% | 81.2% | +21% |
| 40-60 | 97 | +44.6% | +67.6% | 60.8% | +36.2% |
| 60-80 | 98 | +58.1% | +3.2% | 60.2% | +45.5% |
| 80-100 | 52 | +129.6% | +135.9% | 90.4% | +99.6% |
Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.
Current PE ≈ 18.33, at the 39.6th percentile of its own history (20-40 band).
Valuation × momentum historical grid
Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.
(12d)
Currently in “Mid × 60-day momentum down”: across 194 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 19.5%, win rate 83%, beat the market by 13.7%.
Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.
Signals not active (historical stats for reference)
These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.
252-day price high (breakout)
PendingAdjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.
27 times historically; 60-day forward avg -1.26%, win rate 37%, beating the market by -3.82 pts on average.
Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)
PendingMonthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).
69 times historically; 60-day forward avg +0.51%, win rate 39.7%, beating the market by -2.66 pts on average.
Foreign net buying for 5 straight days
PendingForeign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.
39 times historically; 60-day forward avg +7.98%, win rate 53.8%, beating the market by +3.43 pts on average.
What does 億泰 do? Company profile
Overview
1616 對應億泰電線電纜股份有限公司，為臺灣證券交易所上市普通股，產業別為電器電纜。公司成立於1988年3月21日，公開發行日為1994年11月24日，上櫃日為1997年5月19日，上市日為2000年9月11日；營運總部及登記地址為臺北市中正區仁愛路二段91巷1號1樓。董事長為王銀河，總經理為張程浩（代理），發言人為王銀河，代理發言人為鄒玫君。實收資本額為新臺幣1,941,485,150元，已發行普通股194,148,515股，每股面額新臺幣10元。112年報揭露員工人數為213人；公司簡報揭露資本額約新臺幣19.41億元。主要股東依112年報主要股東資訊包括明浩投資股份有限公司持股8.29%、張程浩7.37%、張明泉6.65%、張程煌6.49%、億鋒投資股份有限公司5.51%。
Business
億泰為電線電纜製造商，主要從事裸銅線、鍍錫線、電源線、電腦線、隔離線、同軸電纜、PVC電線電纜、交連聚乙烯高低壓電力電纜、耐熱電纜、耐燃電纜、低煙無鹵素電纜、橡膠電纜、太陽能電纜、通信電纜、光纖光纜等製造、加工、買賣及安裝工程。112年度營收結構為電力電纜89%、通信電纜4%、光纖電纜3%、橡膠電纜1%、裸銅線1%、其他2%；112年度合併外部客戶收入中，電力電纜約36.51億元、通信電纜約1.67億元、光纖電纜約1.05億元、橡膠電纜約0.64億元、裸銅線約0.48億元、其他約0.77億元。114年第三季公司法說簡報揭露銷售比例為電力電纜88%、通信電纜3%、光纖電纜2%、橡膠電纜1%、其他6%。商業模式以接單製造、工程標案及通路銷售為主，需求來源包括台電與公共工程、電信與光纖網路建設、建築配線、捷運與軌道、石化與電廠、太陽能與風電等綠能應用。112年報揭露重要客戶以代碼列示，單一客戶BAA001、AAE037營收分別約10.99億元與5.23億元，未揭露實名；合併應收票據及帳款總額對前十大客戶集中度約77%。
Outlook 2025–2028
2025至2028年展望偏正向但具原料與價格風險。成長動能方面，公司114年法說簡報指出，政府發展風電綠能及台電「強化電網韌性建設計畫」未來十年投入5,645億元，預計2022年至2032年汰換老舊電纜，將帶動電纜相關業務；此政策週期涵蓋2025至2028年，對電力電纜、耐燃/耐熱/低煙無鹵素電纜、鎧裝電纜、太陽能電纜、離岸風機電纜等需求有利。產品與技術方面，112年報列示計畫開發液冷電纜與NACS線纜，已開發或認證產品包含太陽能電纜、電動車電源線、CCS1/CCS2充電樁線纜、離岸風機電纜、5G hybrid cable、耐火光纜、捷運電聯車內部用線等，顯示公司嘗試切入新能源車充電、綠能、5G與交通建設用線。產業趨勢方面，電力基礎建設、再生能源併網、資料傳輸與5G/光纖寬頻升級、公共安全法規提高，有助高附加價值線纜需求；傳統銅通信電纜則受光纖替代與需求飽和影響。潛在風險包括國際銅價與匯率波動、銅/鋁/PE/PVC等原料多仰賴進口、國內低壓建築用線與民營市場價格競爭、公共工程投標與交貨時程不確定、房地產景氣走弱影響中低壓線材、客戶集中度與應收款風險、勞動成本上升，以及國際競爭壓力。2027至2028未見公司提供量化財測，以上為依公司已揭露政策與產品布局所作之產業展望推估。
Supply Chain
- 台灣電力公司 未上市國營事業；電力電纜、橡膠電纜、電網韌性、輸配電與電廠更新擴建為主要終端需求來源之一。
- 中華電信 2412 臺灣上市電信商；億泰年報提及中華電信光世代、NGN及FTTx網路建設帶動光纖光纜需求，但未確認為直接客戶。
- 遠傳電信 4904 臺灣上市電信商；5G、光纖與通訊網路建設為通信/光纖電纜終端應用，未確認為直接客戶。
- 台灣大哥大 3045 臺灣上市電信商；5G、固網與寬頻基礎建設為通信/光纖電纜終端應用，未確認為直接客戶。
- 政府公共工程、捷運/軌道、石化、建築與綠能工程業主 包含公共安全、捷運、高鐵、科學園區、石化廠、太陽能與風電等終端應用；多數標案或業主未在年報以實名揭露。
Competitors
- 華新麗華 1605 上市電線電纜與金屬材料大廠，與億泰在電力電纜、工程與材料供應鏈上具競爭關係。
- 華榮 1608 上市電線電纜廠，同業競爭者。
- 大亞 1609 上市電線電纜廠，產品涵蓋電力電纜、漆包線、能源相關業務，為主要同業。
- 宏泰 1612 上市電線電纜廠，產品包括電力電纜、通信電纜、太陽能線纜等，為主要同業。
- 台一 1613 上市電線電纜及銅線材廠，為同業競爭者。
- 大山 1615 上市電線電纜廠，為同產業競爭者。
- 榮星 1617 上市電線電纜相關廠商，為同業競爭者。
- 合機 1618 上市電線電纜與機電工程相關廠商，為同業競爭者。
- 萬泰科 6190 上櫃線纜與電子線材廠，在部分線材、網通與特殊應用線材市場具競爭關係。
Sources（10）
This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.
Method and limitations
- All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
- Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
- Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
- Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
- Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.
This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.