Skip to main content
Free trial

Ask AI to review this stock

Copy the prompt to get recent events, historical reactions, and a short research brief.

Tell your AI:

Help me set up FinLab and analyze 1617 榮星. Please read: https://finlab.finance/en/setup?stock=1617

No install, open FinLab Studio

1617

榮星 Electrical & Cable As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

quality needs a look, fair valuation.

2 active signals
Revenue ≥20% Foreign buy
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 榮星 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 67Quality 32Growth 79Momentum 49Chips 36

Is 榮星 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Weak profitability.Operating margin is in the 32th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 0.6%.

  • Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 41th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 53th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -0.4% of volume (net sell).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 37.9%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20%, Foreign net buying 5 straight days are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.59
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 元大-屏東 holds 1,350 lots
  • sellers have 329 lots left, ~110 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -4% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 元大-屏東 has accumulated 1,350 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 凱基-台北 peaked at 356 lots, has sold 53%, 166 left, ~10 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +1.38pp, mid holders -1, retail -1.21pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -71 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
元大-屏東富邦-屏東永豐金-永康台灣摩根士丹利元大-府城富邦-新竹
Distributing
凱基-台北美林美商高盛玉山-板橋摩根大通港商野村
Desks
own scale
國泰-台南元大-汐止統一-南京元大-發財
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 元大-屏東 +1,350
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 富邦-屏東 +1,192
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 永豐金-永康 +210
    sold 1%
  • 台灣摩根士丹利 +210
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 元大-府城 +180
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 富邦-新竹 +134
    sold 12%

Distributing

  • 凱基-台北 166 left
    sold 53%· ~10 sessions to clear
  • 美林 19 left
    sold 81%· paused recently
  • 美商高盛 35 left
    sold 49%· paused recently
  • 玉山-板橋 14 left
    sold 79%· paused recently
  • 摩根大通 37 left
    sold 39%· ~15 sessions to clear
  • 港商野村 29 left
    sold 38%· paused recently

Desks

  • 國泰-台南 -551
    unclassified
  • 元大-汐止 -215
    unclassified
  • 統一-南京 -203
    unclassified
  • 元大-發財 -175
    unclassified
Still selling 329 lots ~110 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +772 absorbed / -283 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -8 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 37.88%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

71 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 45.5%, Sample 55, Median -0.73%, Excess -0.76%, Beat mkt rate 41.8%；60-day: Win 58.5%, Sample 53, Median +4.48%, Excess +3.09%, Beat mkt rate 50.9%；120-day: Win 57.7%, Sample 52, Median +3.11%, Excess +5.46%, Beat mkt rate 55.8%

120 days after: historical avg +10.41%

20-day +0.39%
60-day +6.82%
120-day +10.41%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
45.5%
58.5%
57.7%
Sample
55
53
52
Median
-0.73%
+4.48%
+3.11%
Excess
-0.76%
+3.09%
+5.46%
Beat mkt rate
41.8%
50.9%
55.8%

Over 52 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 10.41%, beat the market by 5.46 pts; win rate 57.7%.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Active · now 6%

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

36 historical occurrences (since 2012-10-08)
Average forward return after Foreign net buying for 5 straight days。20-day: Win 31.4%, Sample 35, Median -1.22%, Excess -2.44%, Beat mkt rate 45.7%；60-day: Win 47.1%, Sample 34, Median -1.78%, Excess -6.92%, Beat mkt rate 23.5%；120-day: Win 40.6%, Sample 32, Median -2.13%, Excess -9.81%, Beat mkt rate 25%

120 days after: historical avg +0.94%

20-day -1.34%
60-day -1.43%
120-day +0.94%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
31.4%
47.1%
40.6%
Sample
35
34
32
Median
-1.22%
-1.78%
-2.13%
Excess
-2.44%
-6.92%
-9.81%
Beat mkt rate
45.7%
23.5%
25%

Over 32 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 0.94%, lagged the market by 9.81 pts; win rate 40.6%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 662+10.8% -1% 45% +2.2%
20-40 974+23.3% +15.4% 72.2% +10.2%
40-60 You are here252+23.9% +21.8% 70.2% +0.1%
60-80 128+8.8% +11.1% 89.8% -11.2%
80-100 332+13.1% +11.2% 67.5% -28.9%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 18.64, at the 53.0th percentile of its own history (40-60 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
+10.1%
Win rate 50.5% Excess +7.1%
677d
Now
+13.6%
Win rate 57.3% Excess -1.6%
468d
+7%
Win rate 66.1% Excess -8.2%
316d
60-day momentum down
+1.9%
Win rate 48.6% Excess -1.3%
630d
+3.9%
Win rate 47.1% Excess -13.5%
170d
+4.3%
Win rate 61% Excess -15.1%
182d

Currently in “Mid × 60-day momentum up”: across 468 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 13.6%, win rate 57.3%, lagged the market by 1.6%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

20 times historically; 60-day forward avg +6.97%, win rate 65%, beating the market by +2.89 pts on average.

What does 榮星 do? Company profile

電器電纜／漆包線 台灣證券交易所上市

Overview

1617 對應證券為榮星電線工業股份有限公司普通股，於台灣證券交易所上市交易。公司創立於1971年7月17日，總部位於台南市仁德區中正路三段231號；董事長王東澤、總經理邱守基、發言人薛添得。公開資訊與股市資料顯示公司上櫃日期為1998年4月28日、上市日期為2000年9月11日；實收資本額約新台幣16.95億元，已發行普通股169,514,700股，每股面額新台幣10元。主要股東／董事持股包含大亞電線電纜股份有限公司約36,378,065股、日商古河電磁線株式會社約31,546,647股、王柏翔約2,000,000股、王東澤約1,306,241股。員工規模公開資料不完全一致：104人力銀行揭露約255人、1111人力銀行揭露約270人，年報與公司官方資料未在本次可查頁面中完整確認最新合併員工數。重要子公司包含英屬維京群島榮星國際股份有限公司、東莞榮星電線有限公司、東莞榮星電子有限公司；法說資料另列中國蘇州、東莞、越南與台南永康等生產據點或關係據點。

Business

榮星為漆包線專業製造商，主要產品包括一般漆包線、耐熱線、自融線、特殊線、鍍錫銅線、電子線、偏向軛、馳返變壓器、消磁線圈與線圈等，並從事進出口貿易及代理經銷、投標報價業務。其核心製程為伸線與烤漆，主要原料為銅板、裸銅線、銅／鋁導體與絕緣漆、樹脂等化工材料。第三方產業資料顯示2024年漆包線或電線相關收入占比接近全部，StockFeel揭露電線占99.8%、其他營運事業部0.2%，MoneyDJ則稱2024年漆包線約占營收100%；此占比因來源口徑不同，宜視為近似而非公司最新精確分部揭露。產品應用涵蓋功率電感、空芯線圈、無線充電、感應器、自行車輪鼓馬達、喇叭音圈、變壓器、感應筆、高效能馬達、小型風力發電機、低軌衛星／網通、AI伺服器、5G／AIoT、電動車、自動駕駛、無人機、機器人、半導體設備、智慧音箱、智慧醫療、高效能電源供應器、RFID與充電樁等。公司法說資料列示全球客戶或客戶群包含Minebea、古河電工、FOSTER、TDK、MABUCHI MOTOR、SANYO DENKI、Nidec、CITIZEN、HITACHI、muRata、MITSUMI、INPAQ、HIWIN、Cyntec、DELTA、AUDIX、TAI-TECH、Panasonic、Wacom、CHILISIN等，銷售區域包含台灣、中國、香港、日本、韓國、東南亞、印度、歐美與其他市場。2025全年合併營收約新台幣33.63億元，年減約0.95%；2026年1至5月累計營收約新台幣16.45億元，年增約23.29%，顯示2026上半年需求較2025同期回溫。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025至2028年展望可分為三部分。第一，成長動能來自高頻、高Q、高耐熱與特殊線材需求，包括AI/GPU伺服器、低軌衛星、新世代網通、5G／AIoT、電動車、自動駕駛、無人搬運車、無人機、半導體設備、機器人、智慧音箱、高效能電源供應器、RFID與充電樁等終端應用；法說資料明確將電感元件、車用元件、精密馬達、影音元件、高頻元件列為未來發展領域。第二，公司策略重點包括深化低碳化與自動化、開發低碳產品、優化製程品質、建構智慧化管理、強化資安、建立循環經濟模式、拓展海外業務與新興市場，並以區域代理、產官合作、客製服務、漆膜管理、彈性製造、全長保證作為未來發展核心。第三，風險與挑戰包括銅價與其他原物料價格波動、匯率波動、國際關稅與貿易政策、地緣政治、終端電子與電機景氣循環、同業價格競爭、低毛利製造業特性、客戶認證與車用／高可靠度產品導入時程不確定，以及海外產能與跨境營運管理風險。2025年法說資料曾揭露前三季毛利率7.41%、營業淨利率接近損平且EPS為負，顯示即使營收恢復，毛利與費用控管仍是2026至2028年獲利改善關鍵。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 大亞電線電纜股份有限公司 1609 榮星主要股東之一，亦為電線電纜與漆包線同業；產業上與銅材、電線電纜、漆包線供應鏈高度相關，但本次未查得截至2026-06-17仍為榮星直接供應商的正式契約揭露。
  • 華新麗華股份有限公司 1605 台股上市電線電纜與銅相關材料大廠，屬榮星所處產業上游銅材／電線電纜原料市場的重要參與者；未查得直接供貨關係，列為產業供應鏈關聯企業。
  • 大展電線電纜股份有限公司 歷史年報曾揭露為榮星關係人進貨對象，非台股上市櫃公司；是否仍為2026年主要供應商未能確認。
  • 古河電磁線株式會社／古河電工集團 日本企業，為榮星重要法人股東與技術／OEM合作夥伴；古河電工集團為日本上市公司但非台股掛牌，與榮星在車用線及各類漆包線品質、技術與市場拓展上具合作關係。
  • 絕緣漆、樹脂、化學品與生產設備供應商 漆包線製程需導體材料、絕緣漆膜、融著樹脂、烤漆爐、伸線機、燒鈍設備、觸媒與環保處理設備；具體供應商名單未在本次公開資料中確認。
Downstream
  • 台達電子工業股份有限公司 2308 公司法說資料列入全球客戶群之DELTA，台股上市；終端應用可能涵蓋電源、馬達、電感、能源與電子零組件相關線材需求。
  • 台灣積層工業股份有限公司 3357 公司法說資料列入全球客戶群之TAI-TECH，台股上櫃；屬被動元件／電感相關下游客戶或應用端。
  • 上銀科技股份有限公司 2049 公司法說資料列入全球客戶群之HIWIN，台股上市；可能對應精密馬達、自動化設備與機器人相關應用。
  • 乾坤科技股份有限公司 2452 公司法說資料列入全球客戶群之Cyntec，台股上市；可能對應電感、電源管理與高頻元件用線材需求。
  • 國巨股份有限公司 2327 公司法說資料列入CHILISIN；奇力新已併入國巨體系，台股上市；可能對應電感與被動元件應用。
  • Minebea、TDK、MABUCHI MOTOR、Nidec、muRata、Panasonic、Wacom等國際客戶 法說資料列入全球客戶群，部分為日本或海外上市公司、部分為海外企業，非台股上市櫃；應用涵蓋馬達、電感、音圈、電子零組件與終端裝置。

Competitors

Sources（15）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.