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Help me set up FinLab and analyze 1906 寶隆. Please read: https://finlab.finance/en/setup?stock=1906
1906
quality needs a look, premium valuation, no active signal today.
Is 寶隆 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first
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Weak profitability.Operating margin is in the 34th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ -0.1%.
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Valuation is high.PE is in the 99th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 99th percentile.
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Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -0.5% of volume (net sell).
Chip flow
Institutional rotation, concentration steady — neutral
Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -6% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12
- Largest holder 國泰-敦南 has accumulated 226 lots since the start (sold 2%), still adding.
- Main distributor 台新-台中 peaked at 407 lots, has sold 84%, 66 left, ~2 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
- TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +0.32pp, mid holders -2, retail +0.47pp — concentration shifting upward.
- Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -95 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Accumulating
- 國泰-敦南 +226
- 華南永昌-南京 +167
- 富邦-新竹 +136
- 凱基-頭份 +128
- 國泰-台中 +107
- 合庫證券 +104
Distributing
- 台新-台中 66 left
- 富邦-樹林 105 left
- 元大-新竹 114 left
- 國票-北投 48 left
- 凱基-高美館 65 left
- 元大-沙鹿 10 left
Desks
- 兆豐-埔墘 -350
- 美林 -287
- 永興 -207
- 兆豐-城中 -193
Mixed direction: big-holder and retail changes are not aligned.
Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.
Historical evidence
Valuation regime and subsequent returns
Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.
| PE percentile band | Sample days | 240-day avg return | Median | Win rate | Avg excess (vs index) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20 | 883 | -14.3% | -20.4% | 13.5% | -22.7% |
| 20-40 | 482 | +54.5% | +13.6% | 61.8% | +33.4% |
| 40-60 | 409 | +55.8% | +56.2% | 64.5% | +37.4% |
| 60-80 | 241 | +21.8% | +16.9% | 62.7% | +3.6% |
| 80-100 You are here | 396 | +1.9% | -2.4% | 40.9% | -26.5% |
Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.
Current PE ≈ 1130.0, at the 99.1th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).
Valuation × momentum historical grid
Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.
Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum down”: across 296 historical days, 120-day forward avg declined 6.5%, win rate 34.5%, lagged the market by 31.8%.
Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.
Signals not active (historical stats for reference)
These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.
252-day price high (breakout)
PendingAdjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.
26 times historically; 60-day forward avg +3.44%, win rate 56%, beating the market by +1.03 pts on average.
Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)
PendingMonthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).
80 times historically; 60-day forward avg +1.84%, win rate 44.7%, beating the market by +0.15 pts on average.
Foreign net buying for 5 straight days
PendingForeign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.
52 times historically; 60-day forward avg +1.34%, win rate 45.1%, beating the market by -2.4 pts on average.
What does 寶隆 do? Company profile
Overview
寶隆國際股份有限公司，前身為寶隆紙業股份有限公司，成立於1965年5月20日，1976年4月26日於台灣證券交易所掛牌上市，證券代號1906，為上市普通股。公司登記地址為雲林縣斗六市十三北路25號，總機為02-5581-1777。依台灣證券交易所OpenAPI截至115/06/16資料，董事長為李殷佳，總經理為田哲森，發言人為鍾育廷，實收資本額新台幣1,510,000,000元，已發行普通股151,000,000股，無特別股與私募股，簽證會計師事務所為立本台灣聯合會計師事務所。公司官網揭露2024年營業額為新台幣3,211,527仟元、股本1,510,000仟元、股數151,000仟股。主要股東與董事席次高度連結榮成紙業股份有限公司；2025年董事改選公告顯示榮成紙業持有39,180,636股，約占普通股25.95%，並由李殷佳、陳媛凱代表榮成出任法人董事。員工規模未在已查得官方公司基本資料中明確揭露，第三方Google財經頁面顯示員工約20人，未以年報核實。
Business
寶隆目前是工業用紙經銷代理商，主要業務為紙類之批發零售及國內外採購運銷，核心商品包括箱板紙、裱面紙板、瓦楞原紙、瓦楞芯紙、牛皮紙板等包裝用工業紙。公司官網與MoneyDJ資料均指出，寶隆主要經營工業用紙之經銷代理，2024年產品營收比重為工業用紙代銷100%。其商業模式不是自有大型造紙生產，而是向供應商購入或代理工業用紙成品後，銷售至紙器、包裝、物流與製造業用紙客戶；每年銷售量依與供應商簽訂之經銷合約而定。公司歷史沿革顯示1996年由寶隆紙業轉型多元化經營，1998年斗六廠由榮成紙業得標，2003年起多次與榮成紙業簽訂工業用紙銷售合約，2024年12月與榮成簽訂每年約20萬噸的工業用紙銷售合約。主要銷售市場依2025年法說會報導，外銷主要市場為東南亞及中國大陸，並會依整體經濟環境與發展需求調整銷售區域。2025年全年自結營收約新台幣3,111,558仟元、EPS約0.01元；2026年5月單月合併營收224,804仟元、年增3.25%，2026年1至5月累計營收1,294,513仟元、年減3.15%。
Outlook 2025–2028
2025年公司面臨營收與獲利壓力，上半年營收15.99億元、年減7.1%，營業利益約2,200萬元，但受匯兌損失影響稅後淨損約5,800萬元；2025年7月又因颱風影響前端生產而使出貨波動。不過，公司在2025年法說會表示，客戶端庫存逐步下降、旺季用紙需求提升，有助營收逐月改善，且外銷動能較2024年下半年已有成長，主要市場仍為東南亞及中國大陸。2026年展望以公司與媒體揭露來看，寶隆仍聚焦代理榮成工業用紙外銷，方向為優化產品組合、強化客戶服務、開拓業務往來客戶與銷售通路；媒體引述法人看法稱外銷動能與工紙需求有撐，2026年營收有挑戰逾45億元的機會，但此屬外部法人或媒體說法，非已查得的公司正式財測。2027至2028年未查得公司正式量化指引，較合理的研究情境是：若東南亞與中國包裝紙需求復甦、庫存循環正常化、榮成供貨量與外銷通路擴張延續，寶隆營收可望受益；若原物料與海運成本、匯率、外銷價格競爭、需求循環、紙業產能過剩或中國需求偏弱，則毛利率與獲利仍易波動。另一個中長期變數是資產活化：公司2025年說明雲林工業與住宅用地已有潛在買方洽詢，四筆工業土地約1,600坪、六筆住宅用地約8,500坪，仍屬初步洽談；若後續出售，可能帶來一次性處分利益與資產效率提升，但不屬本業經常性獲利。整體而言，2025至2028的核心觀察指標應為工業用紙外銷量、與榮成供貨合約量、毛利率、匯兌損益、應收帳款與資產活化進度。
Supply Chain
- 榮成紙業股份有限公司 1909 上市造紙公司；寶隆主要供應商與大股東。寶隆主要購入或代理榮成工業用紙成品銷售，2024年12月雙方簽訂每年約20萬噸工業用紙銷售合約。
- 東南亞紙器與包裝客戶 非單一揭露公司名稱；2025年法說會報導指出寶隆外銷主要市場包括東南亞，終端應用多為瓦楞紙箱、紙器與工業包裝。
- 中國大陸紙器與包裝客戶 非台股掛牌且未揭露具名客戶；2025年法說會報導指出中國大陸為主要外銷市場之一。
- 台灣及海外製造業包裝用紙客戶 未揭露具名客戶；推估為紙器廠、包裝轉換廠、物流與製造業包裝需求端，使用箱板紙、瓦楞原紙等工業用紙。
Competitors
- 正隆股份有限公司 1904 台股上市造紙公司，產品涵蓋工業用紙、紙器與家庭用紙，為台灣工業包裝紙主要同業。
- 永豐餘投資控股股份有限公司 1907 台股上市紙業控股公司，旗下紙品與工紙相關業務具規模，為造紙產業主要同業。
- 榮成紙業股份有限公司 1909 台股上市工業用紙與紙器公司，同時是寶隆大股東與主要供應商；在工業用紙終端市場亦具競爭與供應鏈角色。
- 華紙股份有限公司 1905 台股上市造紙公司，主要涉及紙漿、文化用紙與特種紙，部分紙品市場與紙業資源配置上具同業比較意義。
- 永豐實業股份有限公司 6790 台股上市紙品公司，主要在消費紙品與相關通路，與寶隆工業用紙直接重疊較低，但同屬造紙與紙品產業比較公司。
Sources（16）
This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.
Method and limitations
- All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
- Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
- Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
- Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
- Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.
This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.