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1909

榮成 Paper As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

quality needs a look, premium valuation.

1 active signal
Foreign buy
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 榮成 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 37Quality 25Growth 54Momentum 58Chips 79

Is 榮成 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Weak profitability.Operating margin is in the 28th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ -0.1%.

  • Valuation is high.PE is in the 97th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 97th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 5.5% of volume (net buy).

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Foreign net buying 5 straight days are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.30
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 統一-仁愛 holds 8,439 lots
  • sellers have 3,297 lots left, ~210 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -2% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 統一-仁愛 has accumulated 8,439 lots since the start (sold 3%), now trimming.
  • Main distributor 凱基 peaked at 1,714 lots, has sold 74%, 442 left, paused recently.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +0.05pp, mid holders +0, retail -0.23pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -8,338 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
統一-仁愛玉山-城中新加坡商瑞銀致和-金華元大-木柵玉山-大里
Distributing
凱基富邦-羅東永豐金-高雄新光富邦-台北元大-文心興安
Desks
own scale
富邦-建國美商高盛台灣摩根士丹利港商野村
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 統一-仁愛 +8,439
    sold 3%
  • 玉山-城中 +7,093
    sold 0%
  • 新加坡商瑞銀 +3,851
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 致和-金華 +1,595
    sold 8%
  • 元大-木柵 +1,181
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 玉山-大里 +1,136
    sold 0%

Distributing

  • 凱基 442 left
    sold 74%· paused recently
  • 富邦-羅東 227 left
    sold 75%· paused recently
  • 永豐金-高雄 599 left
    sold 33%· ~27 sessions to clear
  • 新光 652 left
    sold 26%· ~210 sessions to clear
  • 富邦-台北 260 left
    sold 66%· ~9 sessions to clear
  • 元大-文心興安 279 left
    sold 50%· ~41 sessions to clear

Desks

  • 富邦-建國 -5,510
    unclassified
  • 美商高盛 -5,285
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 台灣摩根士丹利 -4,107
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 港商野村 -2,644
    hedge desk · will cover
Still selling 3,297 lots ~210 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +9,915 absorbed / -2,139 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -6,043 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Active · now 9%

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

64 historical occurrences (since 2012-07-03)
Average forward return after Foreign net buying for 5 straight days。20-day: Win 44.4%, Sample 63, Median -1.05%, Excess -0.57%, Beat mkt rate 42.9%；60-day: Win 48.4%, Sample 62, Median -0.17%, Excess +1.31%, Beat mkt rate 38.7%；120-day: Win 53.2%, Sample 62, Median +1.19%, Excess -2.08%, Beat mkt rate 38.7%

120 days after: historical avg +5.96%

20-day +0.44%
60-day +4.27%
120-day +5.96%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
44.4%
48.4%
53.2%
Sample
63
62
62
Median
-1.05%
-0.17%
+1.19%
Excess
-0.57%
+1.31%
-2.08%
Beat mkt rate
42.9%
38.7%
38.7%

Over 62 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 5.96%, lagged the market by 2.08 pts; win rate 53.2%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 458+4.7% -5.2% 48.5% -0.8%
20-40 401+42.1% +3.4% 53.9% +29.2%
40-60 429+28.6% -2.6% 48.3% +19%
60-80 292-4.5% -20% 17.8% -7.4%
80-100 You are here546+33.7% +26.8% 71.1% +4.4%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 222.5, at the 96.7th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
+30.8%
Win rate 84.5% Excess +25%
219d
+24.5%
Win rate 83.6% Excess +16.6%
323d
Now
+11.5%
Win rate 50.4% Excess -2.5%
559d
60-day momentum down
-2.5%
Win rate 34.2% Excess -3.7%
544d
-3.1%
Win rate 24% Excess -0.3%
342d
+8%
Win rate 58.3% Excess -11.7%
259d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 559 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 11.5%, win rate 50.4%, lagged the market by 2.5%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

22 times historically; 60-day forward avg +11.45%, win rate 63.6%, beating the market by +7.63 pts on average.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Pending

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

61 times historically; 60-day forward avg +1.79%, win rate 45.9%, beating the market by -0.58 pts on average.

What does 榮成 do? Company profile

造紙工業 台灣證券交易所上市

Overview

1909 對應證券為榮成紙業股份有限公司，為台灣證券交易所上市普通股，產業別為造紙工業。公司成立於1978年3月18日，1985年11月19日上市，總部/登記地址為彰化縣二林鎮廣興里廣興巷1-1號，統一編號34202841，董事長鄭瑛彬，總經理吳國禎，發言人林器暉，實收資本額約新台幣132.77億元，已發行普通股1,327,685,727股；公司官網揭露股本為13,276,857,270元。公司官網公司概要揭露集團總員工數3,341人，其中大陸員工2,430人；2024年集團營業額約新台幣47,799,734仟元，台灣地區約9,551,625仟元、大陸地區約37,009,013仟元、其他地區約1,239,096仟元。沿革上，榮成1978年以榮成紙器股份有限公司成立，1980年更名為榮成紙業股份有限公司，1985年股票上市，1987年跨入下游紙箱事業，1997年進入中國大陸瓦楞紙箱用紙市場，1999年出售兩岸家庭用紙事業予美國寶僑集團P&G，2002年完成專注化策略轉型，集中於工業用紙與包裝。主要法人董事/股東脈絡依2026年股東會新聞，包含錢江投資、榮聖投資、寶隆國際、玉瑪國際等法人董事；完整前十大股東持股比例未在本次可查公開網頁中完整取得，故不填具體持股數。

Business

榮成是以回收廢紙為主要原料的低碳造紙、綠色包裝垂直整合服務型製造商，產品與服務涵蓋上游廢紙回收與造紙、中游工業用紙、下游瓦楞紙板/瓦楞紙箱與整體包裝方案，並包含能源與資源回收再生。公司官網揭露主要業務包括：低碳造紙事業78.7%，產品為裱面紙板/箱板紙與瓦楞芯紙/瓦楞原紙；綠色包裝事業20.5%，產品為瓦楞紙板與瓦楞紙箱；能源與資源回收再生0.8%，包括廢紙採購銷售、汽電共生、焚化爐統包、試車及委託營運。MoneyDJ 2025年7月資料則以2024年營收比重概括為工業用紙97%、能源與資源回收再生3%，分類口徑與官網不同，應以官網較細分類為主。主要生產據點包括台灣二林造紙廠，以及台灣南崁、龍潭、神岡、雲林、路竹紙箱廠；大陸造紙據點包括無錫、平湖、湖北松滋，紙箱據點包括昆山、蘇州、上海閔行、杭州下沙、仙桃、荊州、武漢、長沙等。公司主要原料為廢紙及紙漿，其中廢紙占工業用紙主要原料約96%；紙器主要原料為瓦楞原紙，台灣與大陸多由集團內部造紙廠供應，形成回收、造紙、紙器包裝的一體化模式。終端應用涵蓋資訊科技、電子電器五金、紡織、食品飲料、農果、機械五金、百貨、網購/電商、物流與窯業等，並為國際品牌客戶提供印刷設計、結構設計、緩衝材料、重包裝、紙棧板、低溫保鮮等整體包裝方案；具體客戶名單未完整公開。2025年度公司公告合併營收44,708,099仟元，年度歸屬母公司淨損516,648仟元，每股虧損0.39元，反映中國工紙景氣與價格週期仍壓抑獲利，但2025年下半年起工紙及紙箱需求與獲利逐月改善。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025年：公司全年合併營收約447.08億元、年減，且全年仍虧損；主要壓力來自中國大陸工紙需求偏弱、進口紙/供給競爭壓縮毛利、廢紙與能源成本波動、財務費用與環保預警造成停機減產等。但2025年9月起單月轉虧為盈，10月、11月營收與獲利改善，年底雖受環保預警停機影響營收，但噸紙價差因成品紙與廢紙同步調整而維持。2026年：近期法說與新聞指出，公司觀察中國大陸工紙產業正走出週期底部，需求端電商、物流與內需包裝需求較2025上半年穩定；供給端反內捲政策與同業停產檢修有助供需紀律。長沙廠第二條產線於2025年11月投產，使集團綠色包裝年產能由15.6億平方公尺增至16.6億平方公尺，新增紙箱產能、降本專案、財務費用下降與無大額資本支出下每年折舊現金流超過20億元，將支撐減債與財務結構改善。2027-2028年：公開資料未提供公司正式量化財測，以下為基於產業與公司策略的推估。若中國內需、電商與區域物流需求延續溫和復甦，且反內捲與環保政策維持供給紀律，榮成可望受惠於垂直整合、低碳包裝、再生紙與節能減碳優勢，將成長重點放在高附加價值包裝、低碳紙箱、智能製造/AI落地、供應鏈減碳需求與海外/區域資源整合。公司2026年股東會亦提及將評估控股轉型、強化國際策略合作與企業應用AI，提高資本運作與生產效率。主要風險包括中國大陸需求復甦不如預期、工紙新增產能或價格競爭再起、廢紙/紙漿/煤電/運輸成本波動、人民幣匯率、利率與負債成本、環保限產政策、國際貿易戰影響江浙外銷客戶、低價進口紙衝擊台灣市場，以及南崁廠資產活化進度與價格不確定性。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 國內外廢紙回收商與集團環保站 主要原料來源；榮成工業用紙以廢紙及紙漿為主，其中廢紙占比約96%，公司在台灣及大陸設有廢紙回收環保站，供應造紙原料。多數供應商未公開或非台股上市櫃。
  • 紙漿供應商 補充性造紙原料；公開資料僅揭露紙漿為原料之一，未揭露主要供應商名稱與上市狀態。
  • 造紙與瓦楞紙器設備供應商 提供抄紙機、複瓦機、印刷與包裝相關設備；公開資料可見公司使用大型造紙與瓦楞設備，但未完整揭露主要設備商名單，多為海外或未公開供應商。
  • 台灣電力公司 能源/電力相關對象；榮成二林廠汽電共生主要供應自用，剩餘電力回售台電。台電非台股上市櫃公司。
Downstream
  • 資訊科技與電子電器五金品牌客戶 瓦楞紙箱、紙板與整體包裝方案終端客戶；公司官網揭露服務資訊科技、電子電器五金等產業及國際知名品牌客戶，但未完整揭露客戶名稱。
  • 食品飲料、農果與低溫保鮮客戶 使用瓦楞紙箱、重包裝、低溫保鮮與紙棧板等包裝方案；具體客戶多未公開。
  • 紡織、塑化、機械五金、窯業與百貨業客戶 使用紙板、紙箱與客製化包材；公開資料揭露終端產業別，但未揭露完整公司名單。
  • 網購、電商與物流通路客戶 電商物流包裝需求為2026年復甦動能之一；具體客戶未公開，可能含台灣及中國大陸未上市或境外平台/物流企業。
  • 其他紙器/包裝同業 榮成亦提供瓦楞紙板、箱板紙與瓦楞原紙給同業作為包材設計與紙箱製造原料；客戶名單未公開。

Competitors

  • 正隆股份有限公司 1904 台股上市造紙工業同業，為台灣工業用紙、瓦楞紙器主要競爭者。
  • 永豐餘投資控股股份有限公司 1907 台股上市造紙與紙品集團，旗下工紙/紙器業務與榮成競爭。
  • 寶隆國際股份有限公司 1906 台股上市造紙相關公司，曾與榮成沿革有股權/營運關聯，亦屬造紙產業競爭或相關公司。
  • 士林紙業股份有限公司 1903 台股上市造紙類公司，產品線與市場定位不完全相同，但同屬台灣造紙族群。
  • 中華紙漿股份有限公司 1905 台股上市紙漿/紙類公司，較偏紙漿、文化用紙與相關產品，與榮成部分紙品市場有間接競爭。
  • 玖龍紙業控股有限公司 香港上市中國大型包裝紙/工業用紙廠，為榮成中國市場主要競爭者；非台股上市櫃。
  • 理文造紙有限公司 香港上市中國大型包裝紙公司，為中國工紙市場競爭者；非台股上市櫃。
  • 山鷹國際控股股份公司 中國A股上市造紙與包裝公司，為中國工紙市場競爭者；非台股上市櫃。
  • 浙江景興紙業股份有限公司 中國A股上市包裝紙/紙板公司，為中國工紙市場競爭者；非台股上市櫃。
  • 博匯紙業 中國造紙業者，公開資料列為中國地區競爭者之一；非台股上市櫃。
Sources（15）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.