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2008

高興昌 Iron & Steel As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

steady quality, fair valuation.

1 active signal

252d high

This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 高興昌 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.

Is 高興昌 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 61th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 0.6%.
Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 70th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 51th percentile.
Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 7.7% of volume (net buy).
Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as 252-day price high are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.59

BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
元大-博愛 holds 783 lots
sellers have 55 lots left, ~50 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +5% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

Largest holder 元大-博愛 has accumulated 783 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
Main distributor 凱基-台北 peaked at 62 lots, has sold 58%, 26 left, ~15 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +1.05pp, mid holders -1, retail -0.43pp — concentration shifting upward.
Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -137 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).

Branch inventory reconstruction

Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.

Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.

Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.

Accumulating

元大-博愛康和-內湖新光花旗環球台灣摩根士丹利元大-四維

Distributing

凱基-台北元大證券元大-東泰凱基玉山證券統一-南京

Desks

own scale

元大-敦化凱基-台中美林統一-竹南

Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline

Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

元大-博愛 +783

sold 0%· still adding
康和-內湖 +346

sold 0%· still adding
新光 +114

sold 1%· still adding
花旗環球 +86

sold 0%· still adding
台灣摩根士丹利 +61

sold 3%· still adding
元大-四維 +52

sold 0%

Distributing

凱基-台北 26 left

sold 58%· ~15 sessions to clear
元大證券 16 left

sold 36%· ~40 sessions to clear
元大-東泰 6 left

sold 33%· ~20 sessions to clear
凱基 5 left

sold 29%· ~50 sessions to clear
玉山證券 2 left

sold 50%· ~10 sessions to clear
統一-南京 2 left

sold 50%· paused recently

Desks

元大-敦化 -105

day-trade · selling pressure
凱基-台中 -90

unclassified
美林 -73

hedge desk · will cover
統一-竹南 -69

unclassified

Still selling 55 lots ~50 sessions to bottom at most

Recent buy/sell force +314 absorbed / -27 sold buyers slightly ahead

TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check

>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

252-day price high (breakout)

Active

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

28 historical occurrences (since 2008-05-19)

120 days after: historical avg +4.07%

20-day -1.82%

60-day +1.24%

120-day +4.07%

20-day

60-day

120-day

Win

29.6%

48.1%

61.5%

Sample

Median

-3.48%

-0.71%

+6.32%

Excess

-1.32%

-2.33%

-3.26%

Beat mkt rate

44.4%

48.1%

46.2%

Over 26 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 4.07%, lagged the market by 3.26 pts; win rate 61.5%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

0-20 Insufficient data

20-40 +49.2%

40-60 +18.6% Now

60-80 +21.8%

80-100 -3.6%

PE percentile band	Sample days	240-day avg return	Median	Win rate	Avg excess (vs index)
0-20	0	Insufficient data
20-40	157	+49.2%	+53.4%	100%	+16.3%
40-60 You are here	219	+18.6%	+19.2%	88.6%	-2.3%
60-80	183	+21.8%	+21.4%	100%	-13.2%
80-100	179	-3.6%	-1.9%	43.6%	-41.9%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 40.67, at the 50.8th percentile of its own history (40-60 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation

Momentum

Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)

Mid

Expensive (own-history top 1/3)

60-day momentum up

+20.5%

Win rate 100% Excess -2.6%

131d

Now

+14.9%

Win rate 96.5% Excess -1.1%

311d

-6.4%

Win rate 43.1% Excess -18.4%

123d

60-day momentum down

Insufficient data
(9d)

+17.2%

Win rate 96.7% Excess +7.8%

123d

-0.1%

Win rate 49.7% Excess -17.3%

157d

Currently in “Mid × 60-day momentum up”: across 311 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 14.9%, win rate 96.5%, lagged the market by 1.1%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Pending

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

79 times historically; 60-day forward avg +3.94%, win rate 53.5%, beating the market by +1.87 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

34 times historically; 60-day forward avg -0.29%, win rate 37.5%, beating the market by -4.92 pts on average.

What does 高興昌 do? Company profile

鋼鐵工業台灣證券交易所上市

Overview

高興昌鋼鐵股份有限公司成立於1966年1月15日，總部位於高雄市中華一路318號，股票於1988年12月28日上市，為台灣上市鋼鐵普通股，ISIN為TW0002008000。公司實收資本額約新台幣19.085億元，已發行普通股190,852,293股，無特別股。董事長為呂泰榮，總經理為勝呂榮峰，發言人為徐邦峰。公開資料顯示2025年法說會時員工約217人。主要股東與董事持股資料包含輝達投資股份有限公司、呂泰榮、協昌興貿易股份有限公司、式懋有限公司、佑昶股份有限公司等；公開頁面顯示輝達投資約持有4,800萬股，呂泰榮約持有2,755萬股，協昌興貿易約持有2,600萬股，但持股比例與基準日可能隨申報更新。公司生產據點以屏南廠為主；冷軋廠自2012年6月起暫停生產，營運重心轉向鋼管。2024年營收約14.58億元、稅後淨利約4,873萬元、EPS 0.26元；2025年前三季營收約14.5億元、稅後純益約1.3億元、EPS 0.68元；2026年第1季營收約3.50億元、稅後淨利約2,392萬元、EPS 0.13元；2026年5月單月營收約1.57億元、累計營收約6.57億元、累計年減約21.56%。

Business

公司主要製造與銷售各類鋼管及流通鋼品。2024年產品營收比重公開資料顯示：鋼管約94%，包含鋼管、鍍鋅鋼管、鋼管樁、API鋼管、PE包覆管等；流通鋼品約4%，包含冷軋鋼捲、熱軋鋼捲、鍍鋅鋼捲；其他約2%，包含鋅品、膠片等。主要產品包含鍍鋅鋼管、黑鋼管、API油管／線管、PE包覆管、潛弧焊直縫鋼管、鋼管樁、EMT管等，應用於建築結構、消防管線、廠房機電與支撐結構、高鐵電纜設施、港口橋梁工程、碼頭鋼管樁、農業溫室、高壓輸油與石化輸送等。商業模式為採購熱軋鋼捲／板、鋅錠等原料後加工製造成標準或工程規格鋼管，銷售以內銷為主；2025上半年法說摘要指出內銷約76%、外銷約24%，而較早公開資料亦顯示內銷長期占比約九成。外銷產品以API輸油鋼管等為主，美國市場為重要外銷地區；內銷需求則來自公共工程、建築工程、科技廠辦與半導體擴廠、港埠橋梁、電力與石化管線等。公司取得ISO、CNS、API等認證，有助於工程標案、公共工程與油氣管線產品銷售。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025至2028年展望可分為鋼管本業與資產／不動產開發兩條主線。鋼管本業方面，2025年受惠台灣半導體與先進製造業擴廠、科技廠辦工程、橋梁港埠電力等基礎建設需求，鍍鋅鋼管與黑鋼管內銷需求較強；2025年法說摘要指出2025上半年營收、毛利率與獲利均優於2024同期，內銷訂單能見度較佳，公司對2025全年銷售與獲利看法優於2024年。2026年截至5月營收轉為年減，顯示基期、工程出貨節奏與鋼市景氣仍有循環波動，需觀察下半年公共工程與科技廠房出貨能否回補。2027至2028年中長期動能包括台灣半導體供應鏈資本支出、港埠與交通建設、電力與管線工程、都市更新與土地開發帶動鋼材需求；公司也與國城建設等合作，在高雄亞灣區都更及捷運聯開案布局，若相關開發案推進，可能帶來資產活化、轉投資或不動產收益，但貢獻時點與會計認列仍不確定。主要風險包含熱軋鋼捲與鋅錠價格波動、鋼價下跌造成庫存評價與利差壓力、國內營建與公共工程遞延、外銷API鋼管受油價與油井投資影響、美國鋼鋁關稅與貿易壁壘、台幣升值壓縮外銷毛利、韓國及其他海外競爭者低價競爭、碳費／碳關稅／碳中和要求提高成本，以及2026年已見營收年減所反映的景氣回檔風險。

Supply Chain

Upstream

中鋼 2002 上游熱軋鋼捲、鋼板等原料供應與國內鋼價盤價指標；公開產業新聞指出中鋼調整原料價格會影響鋼管廠報價。
中鴻 2014 上游熱軋鋼捲／鋼板供應商與鋼價參考來源；公開產業新聞指出中鴻盤價變動會影響高興昌等鋼管廠售價。
燁輝 2023 台灣鍍鋅、烤漆鋼捲供應鏈公司，屬流通鋼品與鍍鋅鋼材相關上游／同業供應鏈；未確認為高興昌直接供應商。
鋅錠供應商鋅錠為鍍鋅鋼管重要原料，公開資料未查得高興昌主要鋅錠供應商名稱。

Downstream

台積電 2330 半導體擴廠為鍍鋅鋼管、廠房管線與支撐結構需求來源之一；公開法說摘要與媒體報導指其擴廠帶動需求，但未確認高興昌為直接供應商。
美光科技／台灣美光半導體廠擴建需求來源之一；美光為美國上市公司、台灣子公司未在台股掛牌，公開資料未確認為直接客戶。
台灣中油 API鋼管、PE包覆管可用於高壓輸油及石化輸送；台灣中油未上市，公開資料未確認為直接客戶。
台灣電力公司電力及基礎建設工程可能使用鋼管產品；台電未上市，公開資料未確認為直接客戶。
公共工程、港埠橋梁與工程承包商鋼管樁、鍍鋅鋼管、結構與管線用鋼管之主要終端需求；多為標案、營造商與工程通路，公開資料未揭露具名直接客戶。

Competitors

美亞 2020 台股上市鋼管廠，與高興昌同屬國內鋼管主要競爭者。
彰源 2030 台股上市不鏽鋼管與鋼材加工廠，部分管材市場與高興昌競爭。
允強 2034 台股上市不鏽鋼管與鋼材廠，於管材及工程鋼材市場具競爭關係。
大甲 2221 台股上櫃鋼鐵相關公司，公開資料列為高興昌鋼管業務競爭對手之一。
中鴻 2014 台股上市熱軋、冷軋鋼品廠，既是上游原料來源之一，也在部分鋼材流通及加工市場具競合關係。
鑫陽鋼鐵國內鋼管產品競爭廠商，未查得台股上市櫃代號。
遠東機械國內鋼管／機械相關競爭廠商，未查得台股上市櫃代號。
天聲工業國內鋼管產品競爭廠商，未查得台股上市櫃代號。

Sources（15）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.