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2103

台橡 Rubber As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

steady quality, fair valuation.

2 active signals
252d high Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 台橡 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 55Quality 53Growth 76Momentum 55Chips 90

Is 台橡 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 50th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 2.3%.

  • Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 63th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 81th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 10.3% of volume (net buy).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 33.0%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as 252-day price high, Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bearish -0.40
BearishNeutralBullish

Distribution to retail — bearish

  • Distribution to retail — bearish
  • 台灣摩根士丹利 holds 5,711 lots
  • sellers have 2,850 lots left, ~90 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +35% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 台灣摩根士丹利 has accumulated 5,711 lots since the start (sold 5%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 美商高盛 peaked at 5,680 lots, has sold 27%, 4,133 left, paused recently.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -3.03pp, mid holders +21, retail +1.31pp — drifting down to retail.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -5,051 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
台灣摩根士丹利凱基-台北元大-鑫永和永豐金-三重國泰-敦南元大證券
Distributing
美商高盛國泰-台中凱基-員林元大-新竹永豐金-台南元大-林森
Desks
own scale
統一大和國泰國泰證券元大-松山
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 台灣摩根士丹利 +5,711
    sold 5%· still adding
  • 凱基-台北 +5,368
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 元大-鑫永和 +4,672
    sold 0%
  • 永豐金-三重 +4,058
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 國泰-敦南 +2,352
    sold 12%
  • 元大證券 +2,069
    sold 2%· still adding

Distributing

  • 美商高盛 4,133 left
    sold 27%· paused recently
  • 國泰-台中 366 left
    sold 88%· ~6 sessions to clear
  • 凱基-員林 286 left
    sold 80%· ~22 sessions to clear
  • 元大-新竹 523 left
    sold 45%· paused recently
  • 永豐金-台南 379 left
    sold 59%· ~10 sessions to clear
  • 元大-林森 522 left
    sold 29%· paused recently

Desks

  • 統一 -24,951
    unclassified
  • 大和國泰 -7,935
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 國泰證券 -4,379
    unclassified
  • 元大-松山 -2,359
    unclassified
Still selling 2,850 lots ~90 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +8,773 absorbed / -2,844 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -4,262 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Weak direction: big-holder share fell while retail share rose.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

252-day price high (breakout)

Active

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

26 historical occurrences (since 2009-08-14)
Average forward return after 252-day price high (breakout)。20-day: Win 44%, Sample 25, Median -0.51%, Excess -1.04%, Beat mkt rate 44%；60-day: Win 66.7%, Sample 24, Median +4.12%, Excess +2.01%, Beat mkt rate 62.5%；120-day: Win 60.9%, Sample 23, Median +10.06%, Excess +11.17%, Beat mkt rate 73.9%

120 days after: historical avg +12.14%

20-day +0.37%
60-day +5.09%
120-day +12.14%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
44%
66.7%
60.9%
Sample
25
24
23
Median
-0.51%
+4.12%
+10.06%
Excess
-1.04%
+2.01%
+11.17%
Beat mkt rate
44%
62.5%
73.9%

Over 23 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 12.14%, beat the market by 11.17 pts; win rate 60.9%.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 32.96%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

69 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 55.6%, Sample 63, Median +0.56%, Excess +1.54%, Beat mkt rate 50.8%；60-day: Win 61.9%, Sample 63, Median +4.17%, Excess +4.18%, Beat mkt rate 60.3%；120-day: Win 60.3%, Sample 63, Median +5.23%, Excess +6.89%, Beat mkt rate 57.1%

120 days after: historical avg +8.38%

20-day +1.53%
60-day +4.81%
120-day +8.38%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
55.6%
61.9%
60.3%
Sample
63
63
63
Median
+0.56%
+4.17%
+5.23%
Excess
+1.54%
+4.18%
+6.89%
Beat mkt rate
50.8%
60.3%
57.1%

Over 63 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 8.38%, beat the market by 6.89 pts; win rate 60.3%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 364-8.6% -8.3% 10.4% -14.6%
20-40 293-0.3% -10.9% 20.8% -41.8%
40-60 505-0.6% -12.1% 37.4% -27.8%
60-80 452+20.5% -1.5% 45.1% +2%
80-100 You are here1294-4.7% -11.9% 26.5% -15.7%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 31.64, at the 81.4th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
-7.3%
Win rate 27.8% Excess -10.2%
230d
-12.4%
Win rate 9% Excess -12.1%
189d
Now
+6.2%
Win rate 48.2% Excess -3.5%
868d
60-day momentum down
-0.5%
Win rate 36.5% Excess -5.9%
266d
-3.9%
Win rate 25.4% Excess -16.4%
563d
+1.7%
Win rate 43% Excess -9%
912d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 868 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 6.2%, win rate 48.2%, lagged the market by 3.5%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

55 times historically; 60-day forward avg -0.22%, win rate 50%, beating the market by -3.76 pts on average.

What does 台橡 do? Company profile

橡膠工業；合成橡膠與熱可塑性彈性體材料 台灣證券交易所上市

Overview

2103 為台橡股份有限公司普通股，市場別為臺灣證券交易所上市公司，產業類別為橡膠工業。公司原名台灣合成橡膠股份有限公司，由創辦人殷之浩配合政府發展石油化學工業政策於 1973 年設立，成立日為 1973/11/22，上市日為 1982/09/25。登記/總部地址為高雄市大社區興工路2號，台北辦公室位於台北市大安區敦化南路二段95號18樓。董事長為殷琪，總經理/執行長為蔡偉強。實收資本額為新台幣 8,257,099,780 元，已發行普通股 825,709,978 股，無特別股。2025 年報揭露截至 2026/03/31 員工合計約 1,654 人，2025 年平均年齡 42.7 歲、平均年資 12.5 年。主要法人/大股東依 2025 年報包含巴拿馬商邦克工業公司約 8.42%、漢德建設約 7.64%、維達開發約 6.50%、台塑石化約 4.99%、英屬維京群島商坦摩頓約 4.19%、財團法人浩然基金會約 3.41%、國泰人壽約 2.42%、英屬維京群島商密瑞頓約 1.71%、挪威中央銀行投資專戶約 1.43%、大通託管相關國際指數專戶約 1.18%。法人股東維達開發、漢德建設的主要股東均以茂實公司為主。

Business

台橡是合成橡膠、苯乙烯系嵌段共聚物與熱可塑性彈性體材料公司，業務為開發、製造及銷售各種合成材料。2025 年產品組合為合成橡膠與彈性體營收 35,808,259 千元、占 98%，應用材料營收 664,689 千元、占 2%，合計營收 36,472,948 千元。主要產品包括 E-SBR 乳聚丁苯橡膠、S-SBR 溶聚丁苯橡膠、BR 聚丁二烯/順丁橡膠、TPE 熱可塑性彈性體，以及 Applied Materials 應用材料。E-SBR 用於一般汽車輪胎、鞋底、輸送帶、膠管、運動器材、玩具與工業製品；S-SBR 用於節能低滾動阻力輪胎、高性能輪胎、冬季胎與全天候輪胎；BR 用於高速胎、鞋底、運動器材、HIPS 改質與工業製品；TPE 用於黏著劑、熱熔膠、塑膠改質、薄膜、醫療輸液用品、柏油改質與特殊工業用途；應用材料用於高級/發泡鞋材、玩具、文具、電線電纜、嬰兒用品、個人保健、手工具包覆、汽車與冰箱邊條等。商業模式以石化中游原料丁二烯與苯乙烯聚合、改質與摻配，供應輪胎、汽車、鞋材、醫療、個人衛生、黏著劑、塑膠改質與工業品客戶；2025 年主要銷售地區包含中國、美國、台灣、泰國、越南、德國等。公司揭露最近二年度無單一供應商或客戶占進貨或銷貨總額 10% 以上。產能與據點方面，公司在台灣高雄、中國南通/上海、泰國、美國、印度、越南等地布局；MoneyDJ 資料指出合成橡膠內銷主要供應正新、建大，外銷供應 Bridgestone、Michelin 等輪胎大廠，但公司年報未列示單一客戶名稱與占比。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025 年實績：台橡在全球石化與橡膠產業受貿易保護、地緣政治、景氣循環下行與供需失衡影響下，全年銷售量 616 千噸，較 2024 年增 11%；合併營收 364.73 億元，較 2024 年 372.09 億元小幅下降 2%；毛利 35.76 億元、毛利率 10%；營業利益 9.83 億元、營益率 3%；稅後淨利 4.48 億元、EPS 0.54 元。2026 年至 2028 年展望：成長動能來自亞洲汽車與輪胎需求相對穩定、電動車輪胎對低滾動阻力/高耐磨/高性能 S-SBR 與 BR 的需求、醫療材料與非 PVC 醫療應用、SEBS/TPE 在醫療管材、輸液系統、薄膜、個人衛生與黏著劑市場的滲透、可回收/低碳材料與 ISCC Plus 認證需求，以及全球供應鏈分散化下多區域供應能力的價值提升。擴產與新產品方面，子公司申華化學遷建至南通經濟技術開發區化工園區南區並擴產至年產 22 萬噸，設施已於 2025 年完成並投產；公司另啟動新 S-SBR 產線建置，規劃年產能 6 萬噸，預計 2027 年機械完工，主要對應高性能輪胎市場。研發方向包含新一代環保 S-SBR、Li-BR 綠色橡膠、EV 輪胎材料、高附加價值 SBC、醫療級材料、衛生用品材料、油品添加劑、醫療/電子功能性薄膜、鞋材替代材料與超臨界物理發泡材料。主要風險與挑戰包括中國新增產能外溢導致合成橡膠與 TPE 供給過剩、價格競爭與低稼動率壓力、丁二烯與苯乙烯價格波動且公司缺乏上游垂直整合優勢、原油與地緣政治造成原料成本與供應不穩、關稅與貿易壁壘改變客戶下單與產地配置、汽車/輪胎需求復甦不均、醫療與一線輪胎客戶認證時程不確定，以及跨國擴產與併購整合風險。2028 年以前的財務數字公司未提供明確指引；上述為依公司年報、法說/股東報告與產業趨勢整理之方向性展望。

Supply Chain

Upstream
Downstream
  • 正新橡膠工業股份有限公司 2105 MoneyDJ 指出為台橡合成橡膠國內主要供應客戶之一；公司年報未揭露單一客戶占比，且最近二年度無 10% 以上客戶。
  • 建大工業股份有限公司 2106 MoneyDJ 指出為台橡合成橡膠國內主要供應客戶之一；公司年報未揭露單一客戶占比，且最近二年度無 10% 以上客戶。
  • Bridgestone Corporation MoneyDJ 指出為外銷輪胎大廠客戶之一；日本上市公司，非台股上市櫃。
  • Michelin MoneyDJ 指出為外銷輪胎大廠客戶之一；法國上市公司，非台股上市櫃。
  • Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company 全球輪胎大廠與合成橡膠下游客戶/同業之一；美國上市公司，非台股上市櫃。
  • 醫療器材與耗材製造商 台橡官網與年報指出 TPE/SEBS 可用於醫療管材、醫療膠塞、PP 組合蓋、輸液系統與醫療薄膜；未揭露具名客戶。
  • 鞋材、黏著劑、塑膠改質與個人衛生用品客戶 台橡 TPE/SBC 與應用材料下游應用；包含鞋材、熱熔膠、黏著劑、薄膜、衛生用品與工業製品，未揭露具名客戶。

Competitors

  • 奇美實業股份有限公司 MoneyDJ 列為合成橡膠/TPE 競爭廠商；未上市公司。
  • 李長榮化學工業股份有限公司 MoneyDJ 以『榮化』列為 TPE 競爭廠商；已非台股上市櫃公司。
  • Kraton Corporation MoneyDJ 列為 TPE 競爭廠商；境外公司，非台股上市櫃。
  • Bayer / Covestro 相關材料業務 MoneyDJ 列 Bayer 為合成橡膠/TPE 競爭廠商；德國公司，非台股上市櫃。
  • Bridgestone Corporation MoneyDJ 列為合成橡膠競爭廠商；日本上市公司，非台股上市櫃。
  • Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company MoneyDJ 列為合成橡膠競爭廠商；美國上市公司，非台股上市櫃。
  • Michelin MoneyDJ 列為合成橡膠競爭廠商；法國上市公司，非台股上市櫃。
  • 巴陵石化 MoneyDJ 列為 TPE 競爭廠商；中國石化體系公司，非台股上市櫃。
  • 燕山石化 MoneyDJ 列為 TPE 競爭廠商；中國石化體系公司，非台股上市櫃。
  • 齊魯石化 MoneyDJ 列為合成橡膠競爭廠商；中國石化體系公司，非台股上市櫃。
  • 吉林化工 MoneyDJ 列為合成橡膠競爭廠商；中國化工業者，非台股上市櫃。
Sources（13）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.