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2375

凱美 Electronic Components As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

steady quality, premium valuation.

1 active signal
252d high
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 凱美 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 32Quality 43Growth 37Momentum 97Chips 59

Is 凱美 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 49th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 0.9%.

  • Valuation is high.PE is in the 80th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 96th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 1.6% of volume (net buy).

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as 252-day price high are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.80
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 摩根大通 holds 1,894 lots
  • sellers have 1,573 lots left, ~220 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +86% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 摩根大通 has accumulated 1,894 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 元大證券 peaked at 6,048 lots, has sold 48%, 3,144 left, paused recently.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +7.01pp, mid holders +5, retail -7.65pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -1,907 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
摩根大通國票-敦北法人群益金鼎-台北永豐金證券元大-南京國泰證券
Distributing
元大證券台灣摩根士丹利富邦證券元大-士林台新國泰-敦南
Desks
own scale
台新-台北美林國票-中港港商野村
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 摩根大通 +1,894
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 國票-敦北法人 +933
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 群益金鼎-台北 +527
    sold 20%
  • 永豐金證券 +525
    sold 20%· still adding
  • 元大-南京 +221
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 國泰證券 +209
    sold 0%· still adding

Distributing

  • 元大證券 3,144 left
    sold 48%· paused recently
  • 台灣摩根士丹利 833 left
    sold 65%· paused recently
  • 富邦證券 366 left
    sold 83%· paused recently
  • 元大-士林 231 left
    sold 87%· ~3 sessions to clear
  • 台新 586 left
    sold 46%· paused recently
  • 國泰-敦南 636 left
    sold 37%· ~29 sessions to clear

Desks

  • 台新-台北 -2,738
    unclassified
  • 美林 -834
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 國票-中港 -825
    unclassified
  • 港商野村 -774
    hedge desk · will cover
Still selling 1,573 lots ~220 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +4,444 absorbed / -1,466 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -1,705 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

252-day price high (breakout)

Active

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

20 historical occurrences (since 2010-01-14)
Average forward return after 252-day price high (breakout)。20-day: Win 70%, Sample 20, Median +3.03%, Excess +12.19%, Beat mkt rate 65%；60-day: Win 68.4%, Sample 19, Median +12.17%, Excess +11.12%, Beat mkt rate 63.2%；120-day: Win 72.2%, Sample 18, Median +7.87%, Excess +6.73%, Beat mkt rate 50%

120 days after: historical avg +12.12%

20-day +12.52%
60-day +14.89%
120-day +12.12%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
70%
68.4%
72.2%
Sample
20
19
18
Median
+3.03%
+12.17%
+7.87%
Excess
+12.19%
+11.12%
+6.73%
Beat mkt rate
65%
63.2%
50%

Over 18 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 12.12%, beat the market by 6.73 pts; win rate 72.2%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 215-2.6% -8.7% 35.3% -16.1%
20-40 460+8.5% -4.8% 43% -11.9%
40-60 130+35.9% +30% 65.4% +11.7%
60-80 525+29.6% +5.1% 64.2% +2.1%
80-100 You are here515+6.2% -6.2% 41.9% -8.8%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 60.64, at the 95.6th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
-2.5%
Win rate 39.8% Excess -9.4%
211d
+41.2%
Win rate 61.5% Excess +22.9%
187d
Now
+1.5%
Win rate 35.9% Excess -7.6%
627d
60-day momentum down
+10%
Win rate 60.2% Excess +1.7%
402d
+58.6%
Win rate 65.1% Excess +40.7%
175d
0%
Win rate 50% Excess -9.2%
362d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 627 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 1.5%, win rate 35.9%, lagged the market by 7.6%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Pending

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

71 times historically; 60-day forward avg +4.97%, win rate 52.3%, beating the market by +1.45 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

46 times historically; 60-day forward avg +6.12%, win rate 42.2%, beating the market by +3.41 pts on average.

What does 凱美 do? Company profile

電子零組件業；被動元件、鋁質電解電容、電阻、散熱風扇 上市（台灣證券交易所）

Overview

2375 對應證券為凱美電機股份有限公司，為台灣證券交易所上市普通股，產業別為電子零組件。公司成立於1978年9月11日，原名智寶電子股份有限公司，1998年8月29日上市；2019年與國巨旗下另一鋁質電解電容廠凱美合併，智寶為存續公司並於2019年11月25日更名為凱美電機。總部位於新北市汐止區新台五路一段81號13樓，另有高雄廠、東莞廠、蘇州廠、崑山廠、馬來西亞廠等生產據點。董事長為呂紹萍，總經理為劉文亮。114年3月31日流通在外普通股108,675,334股，實收資本額約新台幣10.87億元。113年度合併營收新台幣52.64億元，年增9.42%，毛利率19%，營業淨利新台幣4.11億元，歸屬母公司淨利新台幣4.95億元，EPS 4.55元；2025全年營收依公開月營收彙總約新台幣55.45億元，年增5.35%。員工規模依113年報，截至114年3月31日合計2,085人。主要股東方面，114年12月31日持股達5%以上者為國巨股份有限公司，持股7,773,905股、持股比例7.15%；114年3月29日前十大股東另包含國新投資、寰泰、高興昌鋼鐵、外資指數基金專戶與自然人股東等。

Business

凱美為國巨集團相關的被動元件與散熱元件供應商，主要業務為鋁質電解電容器、馬達風扇、電阻器之製造、加工、裝配與買賣。113年度產品營收比重為電阻47.14%、鋁質電解電容42.88%、馬達風扇9.88%、其他0.10%；內銷7.18%、外銷92.82%，外銷以亞洲83.15%為主，歐洲8.09%、美洲1.57%。2025年8月法說會揭露的產品比重近似為電阻47%、電容43%、風扇10%；銷售市場別為中國大陸66%、日本韓國9%、歐非中東10%、台灣7%、東協5%、美洲3%。鋁質電解電容具濾波、整流、耦合、充放電功能，應用於通訊、消費電子、電腦資訊、週邊與呼吸器等；馬達風扇用於電源供應器、AV產品、變頻器、網通設備、工業與醫療儀器、車用電子、充電器、家電與空氣濾清設備；電阻器主要限流與保護電路，應用於電器、家電、資訊、通訊、手機、筆電、車用、伺服器等。113年度銷售額超過10%的客戶為國益興業科技（深圳）有限公司，銷售金額新台幣5.467億元，占銷貨淨額10.39%，為對合併公司具重大影響力者之子公司。商業模式以自有製造、海外生產基地、材料多來源採購、客戶導入與外銷為主，並透過高階規格、品質認證與國巨集團資源提升產品滲透率。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025至2028年展望可分為三條主軸。第一，AI伺服器、PC新機種與電力規格升級帶動被動元件與風扇需求；公司113年報明確指出，AI運用因算力提升連帶電源相關電力規格提升，並帶動伺服器及PC領域規格提升，有望推升被動元件及風扇部件需求。第二，高附加價值產品升級：公司研發方向包含鋁質電解電容的大容量、快速充放電、耐高低溫、耐震、耐高紋波、長壽命、小型化；風扇朝高風量、低噪音、高風壓、低電流；電阻朝抗硫化、低TCR高功率、無鉛高壓、高功率抗突波、寬電極高功率低阻、車用品阻值範圍擴充、薄膜電阻、金屬膜與金屬箔產品。第三，區域供應鏈與成本管理：公司已在台灣、中國、馬來西亞設生產基地，並強調原物料多角化採購、分散產地、引進新供應商、彈性物流與客戶訂單系統對接。風險方面，2025年下半年公司曾對提前拉貨後的傳統旺季、美國關稅政策與消費市場信心保持審慎保守；此外，中國競爭者增加造成電阻與風扇價格競爭，全球經濟、地緣政治、關稅壁壘、原物料成本、匯率與ESG轉型壓力均是主要挑戰。2026至2028年的具體營收或獲利數字公司未公開財測，本欄對中長期需求延伸屬研究推估。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 鋁箔、化成鋁箔供應商 鋁質電解電容主要上游材料；公司年報揭露主要原料供應商來自日本、台灣、大陸、馬來西亞，但未逐一揭露供應商名稱。
  • 電解紙、導針、鋁殼、迫緊、套管供應商 鋁質電解電容關鍵零組件與材料；公司採購政策維持兩家以上供應商，以降低斷料與交期風險。
  • 電解液與導電高分子材料PEDT供應商 液態與固態電容材料；公司揭露主要原料包含電解液與PEDT，但未揭露具名供應商。
  • 基板、油墨、包裝材料供應商 電阻器與電子零組件上游材料；公司年報列為主要原料。
  • 扇葉總成、磁鐵磁框、PC板、線圈、絕緣片、矽鋼片、電子零件供應商 馬達風扇上游零組件；年報揭露於馬達風扇產業鏈圖，但未列具名公司。
Downstream
  • 國益興業科技（深圳）有限公司 113年度銷售額占凱美銷貨淨額10.39%的主要客戶；非台股掛牌公司，且為對合併公司具重大影響力者之子公司。
  • 資訊產品與PC/伺服器客戶 電容、電阻、風扇下游應用；包含主機板、監視器、平板、筆電、伺服器與AI伺服器相關電源和散熱需求，具名客戶未完整揭露。
  • 通訊與網通設備客戶 鋁質電解電容與風扇應用於通訊產品、網通設備與電源相關模組，具名客戶未揭露。
  • 車用電子、工業控制、智慧電網、新能源與儲能客戶 公司近年導入汽車相關、智能儀表、變頻空調、太陽能、儲能、充電樁等應用；多為終端應用分類，具名客戶未揭露。
  • 消費電子、影音家電、遊戲機、智慧手機與醫療設備客戶 鋁質電解電容、電阻與風扇終端應用；具名客戶未揭露。

Competitors

Sources（11）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.