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2596

綠意 Construction & Materials As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

strong quality, fair valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 綠意 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 68Quality 59Growth 95Momentum 19Chips 8

Is 綠意 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Top-tier profitability.Operating margin beats ~83% of the market. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 0.8%.

  • Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 42th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 77th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -6.0% of volume (net sell).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 157.3%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.88
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 元大-大益 holds 1,068 lots
  • sellers have 210 lots left, ~57 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -16% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 元大-大益 has accumulated 1,068 lots since the start (sold 0%), holding.
  • Main distributor 台新-新營 peaked at 99 lots, has sold 31%, 68 left, ~42 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +4.99pp, mid holders +1, retail -2.35pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -261 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
元大-大益國票-新莊國泰-館前合庫-台南德信兆豐-新營
Distributing
台新-新營高橋-龍潭港商野村新光摩根大通元大-新盛
Desks
own scale
新光-新竹富邦-竹北統一-內湖元大-竹科
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 元大-大益 +1,068
    sold 0%
  • 國票-新莊 +635
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 國泰-館前 +583
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 合庫-台南 +463
    sold 8%· still adding
  • 德信 +100
    sold 0%
  • 兆豐-新營 +98
    sold 0%· still adding

Distributing

  • 台新-新營 68 left
    sold 31%· ~43 sessions to clear
  • 高橋-龍潭 58 left
    sold 28%· ~26 sessions to clear
  • 港商野村 14 left
    sold 78%· paused recently
  • 新光 25 left
    sold 55%· ~50 sessions to clear
  • 摩根大通 7 left
    sold 77%· ~23 sessions to clear
  • 元大-新盛 4 left
    sold 86%· paused recently

Desks

  • 新光-新竹 -612
    unclassified
  • 富邦-竹北 -457
    unclassified
  • 統一-內湖 -301
    unclassified
  • 元大-竹科 -251
    unclassified
Still selling 210 lots ~57 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +392 absorbed / -67 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -15 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 157.27%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

93 historical occurrences (since 2009-06-01)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 61.5%, Sample 91, Median +0.99%, Excess +1.27%, Beat mkt rate 52.7%；60-day: Win 62.6%, Sample 91, Median +3.13%, Excess +1.03%, Beat mkt rate 49.5%；120-day: Win 63.7%, Sample 91, Median +5.13%, Excess +0.64%, Beat mkt rate 49.5%

120 days after: historical avg +9.43%

20-day +2.22%
60-day +4.97%
120-day +9.43%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
61.5%
62.6%
63.7%
Sample
91
91
91
Median
+0.99%
+3.13%
+5.13%
Excess
+1.27%
+1.03%
+0.64%
Beat mkt rate
52.7%
49.5%
49.5%

Over 91 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 9.43%, beat the market by 0.64 pts; win rate 63.7%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 735+13.4% +6.1% 69.9% +0.8%
20-40 412+18% +4.6% 64.8% +9.5%
40-60 278+37.1% +5.3% 68.3% +25.2%
60-80 You are here318+19.6% +7.8% 66.4% +8.9%
80-100 788+18% +8.6% 65.2% -19.4%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 19.16, at the 76.8th percentile of its own history (60-80 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
-1.1%
Win rate 42.3% Excess -4.6%
442d
+17.9%
Win rate 53.8% Excess +14%
223d
+15.5%
Win rate 64.7% Excess +1.1%
725d
60-day momentum down
+5.5%
Win rate 71.7% Excess +0.9%
495d
+1.7%
Win rate 45.3% Excess -3.9%
333d
Now
+12%
Win rate 71.9% Excess -8.5%
424d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum down”: across 424 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 12%, win rate 71.9%, lagged the market by 8.5%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

24 times historically; 60-day forward avg +6.74%, win rate 62.5%, beating the market by +3.6 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

25 times historically; 60-day forward avg -3.18%, win rate 29.2%, beating the market by -8.55 pts on average.

What does 綠意 do? Company profile

建材營造業 上櫃

Overview

2596 對應證券為綠意開發，為櫃買中心上櫃之普通股，非 ETF/ETN/權證等非營運證券。公司成立於 2001/05/04，公開發行日為 2005/09/29，興櫃日為 2007/09/29，上櫃日為 2009/06/01；總部位於台北市市民大道五段69號2樓。董事長與總經理均為許燈城，發言人為許志豪。公開資料顯示實收資本額為新台幣10億元，已發行普通股100,000,000股，無特別股；公司主要經營住宅及大樓開發租售、工業廠房開發租售、特定專業區開發。2024年永續報告書揭露截至2024年底員工共16人。股權與董監結構方面，公開公司登記/財經資料顯示董事長許燈城代表日埜不動產投資顧問股份有限公司，該法人持股約21,578,809股；董事沈國皓代表海寧投資股份有限公司，持股約12,579,518股；董事許涵如代表大觀投資顧問股份有限公司，持股約11,231,679股；Yahoo/公開資料顯示董監持股比例約45.39%。

Business

綠意開發屬建設開發商，主要商品為住宅、店面、廠辦/商辦與停車位，商業模式是取得土地或參與都更、危老、工業區立體化等開發案，規劃設計後委託或透過關係營造公司興建，再以預售或完工交屋方式認列出售房地收入，少部分可能來自租賃或相關服務。MoneyDJ 對公司營業項目之整理指出，公司主要營業項目為委託營造廠商興建國民住宅及工業廠房出售出租，營業收入比重以房地開發銷售為主。工程端主要由子公司耀仁營造股份有限公司承攬，Goodinfo 亦列示耀仁營造為重要子公司，主要經營土木及建築工程。公司近年產品重心除住宅案外，明顯增加廠辦/智能經貿園區與工業區立體化案，例如綠意順光天下、綠意領航1號、綠意永寧一號等；下游客戶主要為住宅購屋戶、企業主、中小企業與需要廠辦/辦公空間的製造、物流、科技供應鏈業者，但公開資料未揭露具名主要客戶。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025至2028年展望重點在建案完工交屋節奏與都更/危老案推進。2025年：法說與財經摘要顯示，2025前三季合併營收約9.06億元、EPS約1.04元，主要受綠意順光天下交屋入帳支撐；中壢綠意領航1號廠辦案預計於2025年第4季取得使用執照並開始交屋，後續入帳為短期動能。2026年：住宅危老合建案綠意久康預計2026年第1季完工，土城綠意永寧一號廠辦案預計2026年第3季完工，若銷售與交屋順利，將是2026營收認列核心；但建設業收入高度受完工、交屋、驗收與客戶付款時點影響，年度波動大。2027至2028年：法說摘要揭露士林永平段危老案規劃中，預計2028推出；南港玉成段都市更新案、汐止新峯段都更案，以及與宏遠興業合作規劃的新店安和段大型都更案，是中長期土地儲備與成長來源。產業趨勢方面，雙北都更/危老、工業區立體化、企業廠辦升級、AI與電子供應鏈對廠辦空間需求，均有利於公司廠辦開發定位；風險包括央行信用管制、房市景氣與利率、營建成本、土地取得與都更整合期程、建照與使照審查延宕、預售銷售率不如預期、單一建案完工入帳造成營收與EPS波動。2027至2028具體營收與獲利數字公開資料不足，以上為依已揭露建案排程與產業趨勢之推估。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 耀仁營造股份有限公司 綠意開發重要子公司，公開資料列示主要經營土木及建築工程，綠意多數營建工程由其承攬；未上市櫃。
  • 政府公開標售土地、都市更新與危老重建地主/權利人 土地來源包含政府公開標售、都市更新、危老重建與合建整合；通常非單一固定供應商，公開資料未揭露逐案完整地主名單。
  • 國內鋼筋、水泥、磚石與室內設備供應商 MoneyDJ 與公開資料指出公司材料包含鋼筋、水泥、磚石及室內設備，多向國內供應商採購；未揭露主要供應商名稱，故不指定台股代號。
  • 沈國皓建築師事務所 綠意領航1號等建案資料列示之建築設計單位；未上市櫃。
Downstream
  • 住宅購屋戶 住宅與危老合建案之終端買方，屬分散自然人或家庭客戶，公開資料未揭露個別名單。
  • 企業主、中小企業與科技/製造供應鏈廠辦買方 廠辦與智能經貿園區產品之主要需求端；綠意領航1號、綠意永寧一號等案面向企業廠辦需求，公開資料未揭露具名主要客戶。
  • 德華行銷股份有限公司 綠意領航1號建案資料列示之企劃銷售單位，協助廠辦案銷售；未上市櫃。

Competitors

Sources（16）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.