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2603

長榮 Shipping As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

steady quality, discounted valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 長榮 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 96Quality 54Growth 75Momentum 33Chips 2

Is 長榮 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 63th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 1.5%.

  • Valuation is low.PE is in the 4th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 48th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -12.4% of volume (net sell).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 31.4%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.62
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 國泰證券 holds 46,199 lots
  • sellers have 87,437 lots left, ~279 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +3% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 國泰證券 has accumulated 46,199 lots since the start (sold 2%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 摩根大通 peaked at 31,590 lots, has sold 39%, 19,249 left, ~60 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +7.07pp, mid holders +12, retail -6.91pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -17,546 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
國泰證券凱基合庫證券第一金群益金鼎港商麥格理
Distributing
摩根大通新加坡商瑞銀花旗環球美商高盛美林華南永昌
Desks
own scale
元大證券永豐金-中正凱基-台北兆豐-中壢
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 國泰證券 +46,199
    sold 2%· still adding
  • 凱基 +23,906
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 合庫證券 +12,582
    sold 6%· still adding
  • 第一金 +10,630
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 群益金鼎 +9,706
    sold 9%· still adding
  • 港商麥格理 +8,919
    sold 14%

Distributing

  • 摩根大通 19,249 left
    sold 39%· ~60 sessions to clear
  • 新加坡商瑞銀 15,550 left
    sold 48%· ~56 sessions to clear
  • 花旗環球 13,317 left
    sold 43%· ~30 sessions to clear
  • 美商高盛 4,791 left
    sold 75%· ~36 sessions to clear
  • 美林 8,311 left
    sold 51%· ~25 sessions to clear
  • 華南永昌 8,465 left
    sold 30%· ~29 sessions to clear

Desks

  • 元大證券 -44,310
    unclassified
  • 永豐金-中正 -8,487
    unclassified
  • 凱基-台北 -6,717
    day-trade · selling pressure
  • 兆豐-中壢 -5,881
    unclassified
Still selling 87,437 lots ~279 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +37,576 absorbed / -33,997 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -6,983 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 31.41%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

60 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 55.9%, Sample 59, Median +2.09%, Excess +4.57%, Beat mkt rate 52.5%；60-day: Win 64.4%, Sample 59, Median +5.44%, Excess +12.32%, Beat mkt rate 57.6%；120-day: Win 69.5%, Sample 59, Median +9.34%, Excess +25.03%, Beat mkt rate 62.7%

120 days after: historical avg +29.44%

20-day +5.65%
60-day +14.82%
120-day +29.44%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
55.9%
64.4%
69.5%
Sample
59
59
59
Median
+2.09%
+5.44%
+9.34%
Excess
+4.57%
+12.32%
+25.03%
Beat mkt rate
52.5%
57.6%
62.7%

Over 59 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 29.44%, beat the market by 25.03 pts; win rate 69.5%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 669+27.8% +9.4% 57.7% +5.1%
20-40 436+38.2% +3.6% 54.6% +21.4%
40-60 You are here241+231.4% +107% 89.6% +216.1%
60-80 241+217.9% +129.7% 71.4% +185.5%
80-100 144+358.2% +23.9% 58.3% +330%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 8.48, at the 47.5th percentile of its own history (40-60 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
+27.5%
Win rate 67.9% Excess +17%
574d
+107.7%
Win rate 77.6% Excess +96.4%
331d
-9.7%
Win rate 17.8% Excess -16.9%
135d
60-day momentum down
+2.7%
Win rate 53.4% Excess -8.3%
562d
Now
+26.9%
Win rate 68.8% Excess +16.5%
128d
+88.4%
Win rate 95% Excess +65.8%
121d

Currently in “Mid × 60-day momentum down”: across 128 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 26.9%, win rate 68.8%, beat the market by 16.5%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

22 times historically; 60-day forward avg +18.46%, win rate 42.9%, beating the market by +11.26 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

59 times historically; 60-day forward avg +7.44%, win rate 44.8%, beating the market by +3.41 pts on average.

What does 長榮 do? Company profile

航運業／遠洋定期貨櫃航運 TWSE 台灣證券交易所上市

Overview

2603 對應證券為長榮海運股份有限公司，為台灣證券交易所上市普通股，產業類別為航運業。公司成立於1968年9月，上市日期為1987/09/21；證交所個股資料列示實收資本額新台幣21,650,429,960元，主要營業項目為船舶運送業、船務代理業、貨櫃集散站經營業、商港區船舶小修業及其他法令非禁止或限制業務。公司登記／通訊資料可查得台北市中山區民生東路二段166號，營運總部／南崁長榮海運大樓則常見於桃園市蘆竹區新南路一段163號。2026/05/28董事會選任張衍義續任董事長；總經理為吳光輝。2026年股東常會改選董事資料顯示新任董事包括繪股份有限公司代表人張衍義、張國華、御股份有限公司代表人柯麗卿、繪股份有限公司代表人戴錦銓、御股份有限公司代表人吳光輝、長榮鋼鐵股份有限公司代表人林文貴，獨立董事為林瑞雲、許慈美、林詩梅；選任時持股數包含張國華199,423,462股、御股份有限公司10,900,000股、長榮鋼鐵15,304,681股、繪股份有限公司400,000股等。員工規模部分，104人力銀行頁面列示員工數約3,110人；此數字可能為台灣或招募口徑，非完整合併全球員工數。2025年財報公告資料顯示全年合併營收約新台幣3,790.69億元，歸屬母公司稅後淨利約685.81億元，EPS 31.68元，董事會決議每股配發現金股利16元。

Business

長榮海運是台灣最大貨櫃航商之一，業務核心為遠洋定期貨櫃運輸，提供乾貨櫃、冷凍櫃、特殊貨櫃、船務代理、碼頭與貨櫃集散相關服務；2007年起整合長榮集團旗下義大利、英國、香港、新加坡及亞洲海運公司，以 Evergreen Line 單一品牌營運。營收結構高度集中於貨櫃貨運收入，MoneyDJ資料列示2024年貨運收入約占95%，其他如造櫃收入、船艙租收入、櫃場作業及其他約占5%。公司服務網路遍及亞洲、歐洲、美洲、澳洲、中東、非洲及地中海等主要貿易區，並透過OCEAN Alliance與CMA CGM、COSCO、OOCL等合作，聯盟合作已延長至2032年。商業模式為以自有與租入貨櫃船、貨櫃設備、碼頭資源及聯盟艙位互換提供端到端海運服務，收入主要來自即期運價、長約運價、燃油附加費及相關物流服務費。主要客戶為全球進出口商、零售商、製造業、電子與高科技、冷鏈食品、化工與一般消費品貨主，以及國際貨運承攬與第三方物流公司；年報與公開資料未揭露具體前十大客戶名稱，研判客戶分散度高。公司近年推動ShipmentLink、雲提單、雲快遞與GreenX等數位平台，並以大型節能船、脫硫塔、雙燃料或低碳船型降低燃油與碳法規成本。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025年：長榮海運全年營收約3,790億元，年減約18.23%，但仍為歷史高檔年度之一；獲利較2024高基期下降，主因即期運價回落與全球供需回歸常態，但紅海繞航、港口壅塞、地緣政治與農曆年前備貨仍提供部分運價支撐。2026年：截至2026年6月17日，公司面臨中東戰事、紅海／蘇伊士航線復航不確定、油價上升與美國關稅重塑貿易流向等變數；公司於2026年4月法說／新聞資料中對第2季、第3季市場維持審慎樂觀，理由包括歐美旺季、短期紅海航線難完全正常、長約多已簽訂並導入燃油調整機制。不過Drewry、Alphaliner、Clarksons等研究機構對2026貨櫃需求成長約1.5%至2.6%、供給增長約3.1%至4.4%的估計，顯示供給仍略快於需求。2027至2028年：最大風險是新造船交付高峰與運力過剩；公開產業資料指出2027、2028年新增運力可能明顯高於2026，若紅海／蘇伊士恢復正常航行，繞航吸收的有效運力將釋出，運價可能承壓。成長動能包括全球貿易長期成長、新興市場與區域航線開發、OCEAN Alliance延長至2032年帶來航線網路穩定、公司船隊年輕化與大型節能船降低單位成本、碼頭投資提高裝卸優先權及轉運效率。減碳趨勢方面，EU ETS已擴及大型船舶，FuelEU Maritime自2025年起提高低碳燃料要求，將推升合規成本，但也使節能船、脫硫塔、替代燃料船與碳成本轉嫁能力成為競爭關鍵。主要挑戰為運力過剩、即期運價波動、燃油價格、港口壅塞、關稅與貿易壁壘、地緣政治、匯率、利率、碳費與環保法規、造船與租船成本，以及大型全球航商之價格競爭。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 台灣中油股份有限公司 船舶燃油、低硫油與高硫油等能源供應商之一；國營未上市公司，實際採購比例未公開。
  • Shell／BP／TotalEnergies等國際油商 國際主要加油港燃油供應商類型；公司新聞指出已與主要油商簽訂中長期或下半年主要加油港供油合約，但未逐一揭露完整名單。
  • Samsung Heavy Industries／Hanwha Ocean／中國船舶集團旗下船廠／Nihon Shipyard等 大型貨櫃船與新造船供應鏈；多為韓國、日本、中國上市或集團企業，非台股上市櫃公司，具體訂單依各次公告而異。
  • 貨櫃製造、船舶設備、港機與維修服務商 上游包含貨櫃、主機、甲板機械、脫硫塔、壓艙水處理、冷凍櫃設備、港口裝卸設備與維修服務；公開資料未完整揭露供應商集中度。
Downstream
  • 長榮國際儲運 2607 長榮集團關係企業，營運涵蓋貨櫃碼頭、內陸運輸、貨櫃場、承攬、第三方物流與相關服務，屬長榮海運下游與配套物流體系之一。
  • 台北港貨櫃碼頭股份有限公司 台灣重要貨櫃碼頭營運公司，未上市；長榮海運透過碼頭資源提升裝卸與轉運效率。
  • 高雄港、台中港、巴拿馬箇朗港、義大利塔連多等碼頭與轉運中心 公司或關係網絡營運／投資之碼頭與轉運節點，支援亞洲、美洲、歐洲、地中海等航線。
  • 全球進出口貨主與貨運承攬業者 主要下游客戶群包含製造業、零售商、電商、冷鏈貨主、化工與一般消費品貨主，以及Kuehne+Nagel、DHL Global Forwarding等國際承攬業者；多非台股上市櫃或未揭露個別合約。
  • 台驊控股 2636 台股上市貨運承攬與物流業者，屬貨櫃航運艙位需求端與通路型客戶／合作對象類型；未確認為長榮前十大客戶。

Competitors

  • 陽明海運 2609 台灣上市貨櫃航商，與長榮、萬海並稱台灣貨櫃三雄。
  • 萬海航運 2615 台灣上市貨櫃航商，亞洲區域航線具強勢地位，亦拓展遠洋航線。
  • Mediterranean Shipping Company, MSC 全球最大貨櫃航商之一，瑞士／義大利背景，未在台股上市。
  • A.P. Moller - Maersk 丹麥上市全球大型貨櫃航商與物流集團，非台股上市櫃公司。
  • CMA CGM 法國大型貨櫃航商，亦為OCEAN Alliance合作夥伴；未在台股上市。
  • COSCO Shipping Lines／OOCL 中國遠洋海運集團與東方海外體系，OCEAN Alliance合作夥伴，同時在部分航線競爭；非台股上市櫃公司。
  • Hapag-Lloyd 德國上市大型貨櫃航商，非台股上市櫃公司。
  • Ocean Network Express, ONE 日本三大航商整合之貨櫃航運公司，非台股上市櫃公司。
  • HMM 韓國大型貨櫃航商，非台股上市櫃公司。
Sources（19）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.