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2642

宅配通 Shipping As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

quality needs a look, premium valuation, no active signal today.

This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 宅配通 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.

Is 宅配通 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

Weak profitability.Operating margin is in the 16th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ -3.7%.
Valuation is high.PE is in the 88th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 98th percentile.
Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -6.7% of volume (net sell).

Chip flow

Bullish +0.30

BearishNeutralBullish

Institutional rotation, concentration steady — bullish

Institutional rotation, concentration steady — bullish
國泰-板橋 holds 57 lots
sellers have 34 lots left, ~32 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -18% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

Largest holder 國泰-板橋 has accumulated 57 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
Main distributor 國泰-敦南 peaked at 105 lots, has sold 30%, 73 left, paused recently.
TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +0.00pp, mid holders -1, retail +0.42pp — little change.
Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -214 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).

Branch inventory reconstruction

Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.

Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.

Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.

Accumulating

國泰-板橋國票-中正凱基-城中花旗環球國泰-台中福勝

Distributing

國泰-敦南富邦-台北兆豐-忠孝元大-鹿港凱基-新莊元大-草屯

Desks

own scale

凱基-台北永豐金-三重玉山證券美林

Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline

Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

國泰-板橋 +57

sold 0%· still adding
國票-中正 +53

sold 22%
凱基-城中 +49

sold 0%
花旗環球 +47

sold 10%· still adding
國泰-台中 +43

sold 0%· still adding
福勝 +42

sold 0%· still adding

Distributing

國泰-敦南 73 left

sold 30%· paused recently
富邦-台北 13 left

sold 62%· ~33 sessions to clear
兆豐-忠孝 9 left

sold 72%· paused recently
元大-鹿港 6 left

sold 71%· ~6 sessions to clear
凱基-新莊 12 left

sold 33%· paused recently
元大-草屯 2 left

sold 87%· paused recently

Desks

凱基-台北 -152

day-trade · selling pressure
永豐金-三重 -97

unclassified
玉山證券 -86

unclassified
美林 -79

hedge desk · will cover

Still selling 34 lots ~33 sessions to bottom at most

Recent buy/sell force +513 absorbed / -35 sold buyers slightly ahead

Hedge-desk net short -48 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure

TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check

>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Weak direction: big-holder share fell while retail share rose.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

0-20 +95.8%

20-40 +5.7%

40-60 -10.7%

60-80 -12.7%

80-100 +0.5% Now

PE percentile band	Sample days	240-day avg return	Median	Win rate	Avg excess (vs index)
0-20	376	+95.8%	+113%	98.9%	+61.2%
20-40	298	+5.7%	-8.8%	37.6%	-4.8%
40-60	277	-10.7%	-16.9%	23.1%	-26%
60-80	356	-12.7%	-12.4%	23%	-17.5%
80-100 You are here	437	+0.5%	-7.5%	45.1%	-16.5%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 71.46, at the 98.1th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation

Momentum

Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)

Mid

Expensive (own-history top 1/3)

60-day momentum up

+35.3%

Win rate 73.3% Excess +22.8%

288d

+2.4%

Win rate 40.3% Excess -4.5%

221d

-5.1%

Win rate 32.4% Excess -9.7%

321d

60-day momentum down

+37.3%

Win rate 55.5% Excess +23.3%

281d

+2.8%

Win rate 38.9% Excess -1.8%

293d

Now

-6.5%

Win rate 22.6% Excess -13.9%

460d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum down”: across 460 historical days, 120-day forward avg declined 6.5%, win rate 22.6%, lagged the market by 13.9%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

8 times historically; 60-day forward avg +11.83%, win rate 50%, beating the market by +4.71 pts on average.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Pending

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

5 times historically; 60-day forward avg -3.11%, win rate 20%, beating the market by -4.92 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

46 times historically; 60-day forward avg -4.22%, win rate 31.1%, beating the market by -9.72 pts on average.

What does 宅配通 do? Company profile

航運業；汽車貨運、宅配與倉儲物流服務台灣證券交易所上市（TWSE）

Overview

2642 對應證券為台灣宅配通股份有限公司普通股，簡稱宅配通，英文名 Taiwan Pelican Express Co., Ltd.，於台灣證券交易所上市。公司登記成立日期為民國88年9月10日（1999-09-10）；官網公司簡介另載正式營運日期為2000年7月28日。總部地址為新北市三重區神農街426號。董事長為邱純枝，總經理為徐慶懿。公司沿革載明2012年12月為台灣首家興櫃掛牌宅配業者、代碼2642，2013年12月掛牌上市。實收資本額為新台幣954,670,000元，已發行普通股數95,467,000股。官網公司簡介揭露員工人數約2,000人、全台59個宅配營業站所、4座宅配轉運中心、19座物流中心、代收店數約11,100店，技術合作方為日本通運。主要股東與治理結構以東元電機、台灣伊藤忠、安心食品等法人董事為核心；公開資料顯示東元電機持股約24,121,700股、25.27%，台灣伊藤忠持股約18,138,500股、19.00%，安心食品約1,556,000股、1.63%；董監持股合計約45.90%。公司2025年度合併財報列東元電機為最終母公司，台灣伊藤忠為對本集團具重大影響之個體。

Business

公司主要經營汽車貨運及宅配、倉儲物流、理貨包裝，服務包含常溫宅配、低溫宅配、機場行李宅配、網路預約取件、智慧取件、宅轉店、契約客戶服務、物流服務、資訊流服務，以及代收貨款、貨到刷卡、貨到付款等金流服務。商業模式以B2C、C2C、B2B宅配、倉儲理貨、越庫併件、配送與電商後端物流服務收費為主，並透過便利商店與代收店網路擴大收寄件觸點。2025年度合併營收為新台幣3,809,181千元，較2024年度4,051,174千元下降；毛利率約7%，營業損失150,428千元。收入細分為勞務服務3,518,917千元、約92.38%，銷售商品290,264千元、約7.62%。以營運部門看，2025年度宅配服務部外部收入2,336,814千元、約61.35%，物流事業部1,472,367千元、約38.65%；宅配服務部稅前部門損益為虧損195,797千元，物流事業部獲利64,728千元，顯示物流倉儲為當期較佳獲利來源。地區別收入幾乎全部來自台灣，2025年台灣收入3,782,882千元，越南收入26,299千元。2025年度重要客戶資訊揭露單一甲客戶收入643,070千元，橫跨宅配服務部及物流事業部，但公司未揭露客戶名稱。關係人銷售方面，2025年度對最終母公司東元電機收入323,053千元，對安心食品收入328,950千元，其他關係人收入79,676千元。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025至2028年展望以『宅配鞏固市場、物流擴大服務』為核心。公司法說會指出市場四大趨勢為國內與跨境電商、低溫食品市場、低溫倉儲、智慧物流與數位化及綠色運輸。宅配端的成長動能包括拓展跨境電商、店到宅或店到家服務、B2B貨運事業、維持大B客戶與前20大契約客戶、提升D+1配達率、路線整編與成本費用合理化、調整業務結構並提升單價。物流端的成長動能包括提高倉儲服務能力、協助客戶多平台出貨外倉管理、提供物流系統整合、導入PDA作業、優化WMS系統、導入智能決策以提升倉儲作業品質。公司2024年5月成立林森物流中心，進入低溫冷凍、冷藏物流市場；2025年8月法說會稱半自動多溫層物流廠倉儲使用率已達87%至90%，持續為物流業務挹注成長動能。產業面，台灣電商物流在疫情後增速趨緩但仍維持結構性成長，汽車貨運、快遞宅配與普通倉儲為核心次產業；低溫食品、跨境電商、倉儲自動化、WMS/TMS/CRM整合、AI/IoT即時監控、綠色物流與電動運具將是主要趨勢。主要風險與挑戰包括國內電商成長趨緩與平台轉移至跨境電商、宅配市場競爭加劇、大型電商或零售商自建車隊造成客戶流失及人力挖角、職業駕照人數下降與人事成本上升、週日不營運可能影響服務覆蓋與營收、低溫倉投資增加折舊及電費並推升類別二碳排、宅配服務部虧損仍待改善、單一大客戶集中度與未揭露客戶風險。2026至2028年的具體財務目標公司未明確公開，故本段對2026至2028的展望主要由公司2025法說策略與產業趨勢外推。

Supply Chain

Upstream

東元電機股份有限公司 1504 最終母公司；2025年度財報列為關係人，與宅配通有服務費、租金、其他成本費用及股利收入等往來，同時也是營收來源之一。
東捷資訊服務股份有限公司 6697 關係人與資訊服務供應鏈成員；公司2025年度財報列示其他關係人，應付款與其他應付款涉及資訊、客服委外、資料處理或系統服務等成本費用。
東安資產開發管理股份有限公司東元集團未公開發行公司；2025年度財報列為其他關係人，宅配通向其支付租金費用，屬物流據點、辦公或倉儲相關不動產租賃供應鏈。
台灣伊藤忠股份有限公司未上市公司；財報列為對宅配通具重大影響之個體，亦為法人董事與策略投資人，與跨境電商、日系客戶及食品電商服務拓展有策略合作關係。
日本通運株式會社日本企業；公司官網列為技術合作方，宅配通正式營運時引進其宅配物流技術。
燃油、車輛、低溫設備、倉儲設備與人力派遣供應商公司未完整逐名揭露；依宅配與低溫物流營運型態，油料、車輛、冷鏈設備、分理貨設備、倉儲租賃與人力派遣為主要上游成本項目，具體供應商與採購比重未公開。

Downstream

未揭露甲客戶 2025年度重要客戶，收入643,070千元，占合併營收約16.88%，部門涵蓋宅配服務部及物流事業部；公司財報未揭露客戶名稱。
安心食品服務股份有限公司 1259 關係人、法人董事與下游客戶；2025年度宅配通對安心食品營業收入328,950千元，主要來自宅配物流服務。
東元電機股份有限公司 1504 最終母公司及下游客戶；2025年度宅配通對最終母公司營業收入323,053千元。
富邦媒體科技股份有限公司 8454 台股上市電商平台momo；公司2025年度財報揭露宅配通持有富邦媒股票868,377股，歷史公開報導曾稱momo為宅配通重要電商配送合作客戶，但目前公司未揭露2025實際配送占比。
全家便利商店股份有限公司 5903 台股上市便利商店通路；宅配通沿革與服務網路顯示長期合作便利商店C2C、宅轉店、代收與宅配包材等服務，是末端收寄件與下游客戶觸點之一。
萊爾富便利商店股份有限公司未上市便利商店通路；宅配通沿革揭露雙方長期合作當日宅配、便利商店低溫宅配與代收店服務，屬末端通路與下游客戶觸點。

Competitors

嘉里大榮物流股份有限公司 2608 台股上市物流與貨運業者，提供路線貨運、宅配、倉儲與第三方物流，為宅配通在B2B貨運、宅配與物流倉儲領域的主要競爭者。
榮運股份有限公司 2607 台股上市物流運輸業者，業務偏向貨櫃、倉儲、運輸與物流服務，在第三方物流與倉儲運輸市場與宅配通部分重疊。
統一速達股份有限公司（黑貓宅急便）未上市公司；台灣宅配市場重要品牌，為宅配通在常溫、低溫宅配與最後一哩配送的直接競爭者。
新竹物流股份有限公司未上市公司；台灣路線貨運、宅配與企業物流重要業者，與宅配通在B2B、B2C配送及倉儲物流服務競爭。
中華郵政股份有限公司國營未上市公司；提供郵務、包裹與物流配送，為宅配及包裹配送市場競爭者。
台灣順豐速運股份有限公司非台股掛牌；屬順豐體系在台營運公司，於跨境電商、快遞與包裹配送市場與宅配通部分競爭。

Sources（25）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.