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Help me set up FinLab and analyze 2706 第一店. Please read: https://finlab.finance/en/setup?stock=2706
2706
strong quality, fair valuation, no active signal today.
Is 第一店 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first
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Top-tier profitability.Operating margin beats ~100% of the market. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 0.7%.
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Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 40th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 31th percentile.
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Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 5.5% of volume (net buy).
Chip flow
Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -4% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12
- Largest holder 兆豐-彰化 has accumulated 596 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
- Main distributor 永豐金-市政 peaked at 253 lots, has sold 37%, 160 left, ~31 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
- TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +0.03pp, mid holders +0, retail -0.13pp — concentration shifting upward.
- Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -169 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Accumulating
- 兆豐-彰化 +596
- 元大-屏東民生 +455
- 華南永昌-竹北 +259
- 第一金-桃園 +212
- 花旗環球 +208
- 台新-基隆 +168
Distributing
- 永豐金-市政 160 left
- 新光 72 left
- 摩根大通 47 left
- 凱基-台北 46 left
- 臺銀-臺南 34 left
- 華南永昌-嘉義 33 left
Desks
- 凱基-台南 -321
- 富邦-陽明 -248
- 第一金-路竹 -240
- 華南永昌-淡水 -231
Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.
Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.
Historical evidence
Valuation regime and subsequent returns
Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.
| PE percentile band | Sample days | 240-day avg return | Median | Win rate | Avg excess (vs index) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20 | 1503 | +1.6% | 0% | 49.6% | -12.5% |
| 20-40 You are here | 282 | +4.7% | +6.7% | 77% | -2.1% |
| 40-60 | 285 | -4.7% | -8% | 27.7% | -45.4% |
| 60-80 | 411 | -0.7% | 0% | 50.1% | -28.5% |
| 80-100 | 491 | +4.8% | +3.3% | 75.8% | +0.8% |
Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.
Current PE ≈ 18.51, at the 30.8th percentile of its own history (20-40 band).
Valuation × momentum historical grid
Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.
Currently in “Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3) × 60-day momentum down”: across 809 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 0.7%, win rate 52.9%, lagged the market by 5.4%.
Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.
Signals not active (historical stats for reference)
These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.
252-day price high (breakout)
PendingAdjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.
21 times historically; 60-day forward avg -5.17%, win rate 42.9%, beating the market by -5.19 pts on average.
Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)
PendingMonthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).
21 times historically; 60-day forward avg +2.07%, win rate 57.1%, beating the market by -3.35 pts on average.
Foreign net buying for 5 straight days
PendingForeign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.
57 times historically; 60-day forward avg +0.16%, win rate 45.5%, beating the market by -4.89 pts on average.
What does 第一店 do? Company profile
Overview
2706 對應證券為第一華僑大飯店股份有限公司普通股，證券簡稱第一店，ISIN 為 TW0002706009，市場別為上市，產業別為觀光餐旅，上市日為 1991/06/25。公司成立於 1968/09/27，總部及主要營業據點位於台北市南京東路二段63號。董事長為顧安生，總經理為徐小華。實收資本額約新台幣4,999,983,460元，已發行普通股499,998,346股。113年度年報揭露截至114/3/31員工37人；113年度員工38人。113年度主要股東包括今武投資19.80%、萬華企業19.80%、文華投資14.72%、禪豐投資8.15%、僑信投資3.56%、今日股份3.03%、寰熙投資1.85%、渣打託管利國皇家銀行新加坡有限公司1.64%、昇威投資1.29%、李玉萍1.07%。
Business
公司核心業務為觀光旅館業務與商業大樓出租業務。113年度營業收入新台幣355,880千元，收入結構為租賃收入269,743千元、占76%；客房收入49,389千元、占14%；餐飲收入34,651千元、占10%；郵電與其他收入合計約0%至1%。113年住房率為41.58%。主要服務包括提供旅客住宿、餐飲、社交與會議場所，以及商場出租。公司位於台北市中心、鄰近捷運松江南京站，定位偏中價位都會型飯店與商業出租資產。住房旅客來源以東北亞與東南亞為主，113年度旅客國籍結構中東北亞（日、韓）占45.74%，東南亞與大陸、香港、國內旅客合計占43.99%，北美占5.75%。113年度主要銷貨客戶以代號「A公司」揭露，金額249,278千元、占全年銷貨淨額70.05%，未公開名稱；另年報揭露王品餐飲承租南京東路二段65、67號2至3樓、1樓入口樓梯間及63號經營藝奇日本料理，美心西餐廳承租地下樓層經營鐵板燒。公司商業模式以自有或控制物業的租賃收入作為主要穩定現金流，住宿與餐飲則受來台旅客、商務會展、旅行社與網路訂房平台導流影響。
Outlook 2025–2028
2025年營運已呈溫和復甦，公開月營收資料顯示2025全年營收約新台幣376,915千元、年增5.91%；2026年1至5月累計營收約149,761千元、年增約1.7%，顯示基期墊高後成長趨緩。2025至2028年主要成長動能包括：來台旅客持續回升，交通部觀光署統計2025年來台旅客約857萬人次、年增約9%，2026年官方行銷主軸轉向精準分眾與主題體驗深化；台北市仍是國際旅客住宿高度集中的門戶城市，有利市中心都會型飯店；公司可透過既有租賃資產、餐飲租戶、客房整修、無線網路與金流設備升級、加入或擴大國際與網路訂房平台、開發東南亞與東北亞客源來提升住房率與單房收入。2027至2028年公司未公布量化財測或明確大型擴產計畫，較可信的展望是以既有資產出租、住房率改善、餐飲租戶組合及國際旅客恢復作為核心；潛在風險包括新旅館供給與BOT低價競爭壓抑房價、國人出國潮分流國旅、陸客低迷、日圓與新台幣匯率變動影響客源與消費力、人力短缺、物價與食材成本上升、建物與客房老化需持續資本支出，以及主要銷貨客戶集中但未揭露名稱所帶來的租賃或通路集中風險。
Supply Chain
- 生鮮食品供應商 供應餐飲業務所需食材；年報僅揭露供應商類型，未揭露具體公司名稱，且無單一進貨客戶占比超過10%。
- 飲料供應商 供應餐飲服務所需飲料；年報僅揭露類別，未指名公司。
- 一般用品供應商 供應飯店與餐飲營運所需一般用品；年報未揭露具體公司。
- 客房用品供應商 供應客房備品與住宿服務所需耗材；供應情況年報稱穩定，未揭露具體公司。
- 訂房平台與旅遊通路系統業者 支援網路訂房、旅行社訂房與電子金流；多數為未上市或海外平台，年報未揭露具體名稱。
- A公司 113年度主要銷貨客戶，銷貨金額249,278千元、占全年銷貨淨額70.05%；年報以代號揭露，未公開名稱。
- 王品餐飲股份有限公司 2727 上市餐飲公司，為第一店商業大樓租戶，承租南京東路二段相關樓層與門面經營藝奇日本料理。
- 美心西餐廳股份有限公司 未確認為台股上市櫃公司；為第一店租戶，承租南京東路二段63號地下一層經營鐵板燒。
- 國內外旅客與商務客 住宿、會議與餐飲終端消費者，113年度住房旅客主要來自東北亞與東南亞。
- 旅行社、公司訂房與網路訂房客戶 年報列為客房下游訂房來源，但未揭露具體業者名稱；可能包含未上市、上市櫃與海外平台。
Competitors
- 萬企 2701 上市觀光餐旅類股，與第一店同屬台股觀光餐旅分類，具不動產出租與觀光相關營運比較性。
- 華園 2702 上市觀光餐旅類股，飯店與餐旅營運同業。
- 國賓 2704 上市觀光餐旅類股，國賓大飯店品牌，為台灣飯店同業競爭者。
- 六福 2705 上市觀光餐旅類股，經營飯店、餐飲與休閒旅遊，為旅宿與餐飲同業。
- 晶華 2707 上市觀光餐旅類股，晶華國際酒店為台灣高端飯店代表，與第一店在台北旅宿、餐飲與商務客市場存在競爭。
- 遠雄來 2712 上市觀光餐旅類股，飯店與休閒住宿同業。
- 夏都 2722 上市觀光餐旅類股，度假型飯店同業，與第一店市場定位不同但同受國旅與入境旅遊景氣影響。
- 寒舍 2739 上市觀光餐旅類股，台北都會高端飯店與餐飲業者，為都會旅宿與宴會餐飲競爭者。
- 雲品 2748 上市觀光餐旅類股，飯店、餐飲與管理服務業者，為旅宿市場同業。
Sources（12）
This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.
Method and limitations
- All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
- Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
- Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
- Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
- Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.
This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.