Skip to main content
Free trial

Ask AI to review this stock

Copy the prompt to get recent events, historical reactions, and a short research brief.

Tell your AI:

Help me set up FinLab and analyze 2812 台中銀. Please read: https://finlab.finance/en/setup?stock=2812

No install, open FinLab Studio

2812

台中銀 Finance & Insurance As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

strong quality, discounted valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 台中銀 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 80Quality 79Growth 72Momentum 33Chips 63

Is 台中銀 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Top-tier profitability.Operating margin beats ~96% of the market. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 2.6%.

  • Valuation is low.PE is in the 16th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 73th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 2.2% of volume (net buy).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 28.3%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bearish -0.36
BearishNeutralBullish

Distribution to retail — bearish

  • Distribution to retail — bearish
  • 第一金-忠孝 holds 19,692 lots
  • sellers have 8,550 lots left, ~59 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -4% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 第一金-忠孝 has accumulated 19,692 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 國泰-敦南 peaked at 6,323 lots, has sold 37%, 4,015 left, ~27 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -3.00pp, mid holders +59, retail +2.46pp — drifting down to retail.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -47,477 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
第一金-忠孝華南永昌福邦-新竹元大-向上台新-台中凱基-苗栗
Distributing
國泰-敦南永豐金-板新新光-台中新光陽信元大-屏東民生
Desks
own scale
國泰證券美商高盛元大證券台中銀-台北
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 第一金-忠孝 +19,692
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 華南永昌 +5,693
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 福邦-新竹 +5,382
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 元大-向上 +4,501
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 台新-台中 +3,399
    sold 6%
  • 凱基-苗栗 +3,261
    sold 0%

Distributing

  • 國泰-敦南 4,015 left
    sold 37%· ~27 sessions to clear
  • 永豐金-板新 2,092 left
    sold 52%· paused recently
  • 新光-台中 2,153 left
    sold 31%· paused recently
  • 新光 1,422 left
    sold 51%· ~15 sessions to clear
  • 陽信 859 left
    sold 34%· paused recently
  • 元大-屏東民生 147 left
    sold 89%· paused recently

Desks

  • 國泰證券 -50,410
    unclassified
  • 美商高盛 -42,100
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 元大證券 -23,283
    unclassified
  • 台中銀-台北 -20,345
    unclassified
Still selling 8,550 lots ~59 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +19,378 absorbed / -4,714 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -27,735 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Weak direction: big-holder share fell while retail share rose.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 28.33%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

64 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 50.8%, Sample 59, Median +0.37%, Excess -0.29%, Beat mkt rate 47.5%；60-day: Win 72.4%, Sample 58, Median +2.77%, Excess +0.35%, Beat mkt rate 48.3%；120-day: Win 65.5%, Sample 58, Median +6.78%, Excess +1.46%, Beat mkt rate 60.3%

120 days after: historical avg +6.3%

20-day +0.01%
60-day +3.2%
120-day +6.3%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
50.8%
72.4%
65.5%
Sample
59
58
58
Median
+0.37%
+2.77%
+6.78%
Excess
-0.29%
+0.35%
+1.46%
Beat mkt rate
47.5%
48.3%
60.3%

Over 58 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 6.3%, beat the market by 1.46 pts; win rate 65.5%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 630+3.3% +3.3% 72.1% -4.7%
20-40 235+12.8% +15.4% 82.6% +0.5%
40-60 538+15.5% +15.1% 98.1% +1.8%
60-80 You are here1058+16.8% +18.3% 87% -2.8%
80-100 519+20.6% +24.5% 92.9% -5%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 12.81, at the 73.1th percentile of its own history (60-80 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
+0.9%
Win rate 50.8% Excess -1.2%
449d
+7.1%
Win rate 96.4% Excess +1.9%
673d
+8.4%
Win rate 77.4% Excess -1.7%
1250d
60-day momentum down
+4.7%
Win rate 77.2% Excess -2.2%
294d
+9.4%
Win rate 99.1% Excess -6.2%
219d
Now
+6.4%
Win rate 74% Excess -11.4%
215d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum down”: across 215 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 6.4%, win rate 74%, lagged the market by 11.4%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

44 times historically; 60-day forward avg +4.12%, win rate 72.7%, beating the market by +1.4 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

74 times historically; 60-day forward avg +3.56%, win rate 71.2%, beating the market by +0.3 pts on average.

What does 台中銀 do? Company profile

金融業／銀行業 台灣證券交易所上市

Overview

2812 對應證券為台中商業銀行股份有限公司普通股，簡稱台中銀，上市市場為台灣證券交易所。公司前身為臺中區合會儲蓄公司，1953 年創設並開始營業，公開資料列示成立日期為 1953/08/26；1978 年改制為臺中區中小企業銀行，1984/05/15 股票上市，1998 年改制為臺中商業銀行。總部地址為台中市民權路 87 號。依 2026/02/15 Yahoo 股市資料，董事長為李瑞倉、總經理為董益源、股本為新台幣 60,216,259,210 元、已發行普通股 6,021,625,921 股、所屬集團標示為中纖；2026/05/27 董事會重新選任李瑞倉為董事長。2025 年報列示截至 2026/02/28 從業員工合計 3,112 人，2025 年底國內外分支機構 92 家。公司治理與董事資料顯示旭天投資股份有限公司長期為重要法人董事／主要控制相關法人之一，但公開資料未在本次可查來源中取得完整前十大股東持股比例，因此主要股東細項不杜撰。

Business

台中銀是區域型商業銀行，核心客群為中小企業、自然人、消費金融與財富管理客戶，並透過馬來西亞納閩分行、吉隆坡共同服務處等海外據點服務海外與跨境金融需求。主要業務包括支票與各類存款、發行金融債券、放款與票據貼現、國內外匯兌、匯票承兌、國內信用狀與保證、代理收付款、信用卡、證券承銷／自營／代客買賣、融資融券、信託、共同信託基金、保管與短期票券等。2025 年法人說明會顯示銀行淨收益結構約為利息淨收益 64.53%、手續費淨收益 20.04%、其他淨收益 15.43%；2025 年稅後淨利 90.57 億元、EPS 1.53 元，逾放比 0.24%、備抵呆帳覆蓋率 516.39%。2025 年報主要金融商品與業務資料顯示：企金放款營業收入約 80.80 億元，消費者貸款收入約 31.36 億元，非消費者貸款收入約 64.55 億元，信用卡簽帳收入約 1.80 億元；財務運籌收入來自股票基金、定存單、商業本票、債券附賣回、同業拆放、公債、公司債、外幣債等。商業模式以吸收存款與金融市場資金，透過企業授信、消費貸款、房貸、外匯、財富管理、信託、投資與金融市場交易取得利差、手續費與投資收益。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025 至 2028 年展望以穩健銀行本業、數位轉型、財富管理、綠色金融與海外／跨境業務為主。成長動能包括：台灣 AI、半導體與數位轉型帶動企業設備投資與產業升級資金需求；政府重大建設與淨零轉型推升綠色授信與轉型金融；就業與薪資支撐消費金融、信用卡及個人貸款；財富管理客戶資產配置需求提高，2025 年財富管理相關手續費收入年增 13.77%。公司策略聚焦「鞏固獲利動能、創新客戶體驗、提升營運效率、共創永續價值」，並推動核心系統升級、AI 應用落地、數位外幣帳戶、線上申貸、Lolly Bank 數位帳戶、電子支付連結、金融防詐與友善金融。業務面將持續拓展中小企業金融、ESG 授信、房貸生態圈、優質企業團簽、AI 領航菁英貸、海外分行與 OBU 國際聯貸、信託與保管銀行業務。主要風險包括台灣銀行業競爭激烈、利差壓縮、金融商品利率與優惠較大型銀行有限、海外與跨境布局仍待擴充、科技與核心系統升級成本增加、不動產政策調控、景氣循環、地緣政治、美中經貿風險、利率與匯率波動、資產品質惡化、金融詐欺與資安風險。2026-2028 之具體數字預測未見公司公開明確指引，以上為依年報、法說會與產業趨勢整理之定性展望。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 存款戶與企業資金來源 銀行主要資金來源之一，包含自然人、企業戶、外幣存款戶與同業資金；非單一上市櫃公司。
  • 中央銀行與金融監理體系 提供貨幣政策、準備金、流動性與銀行監理架構；非上市櫃公司。
  • 財金資訊股份有限公司 台灣金融跨行支付、ATM、ACH、金融資訊交換等基礎設施相關機構；未上市。
  • 台灣集中保管結算所股份有限公司 證券、股務與金融市場結算保管相關基礎設施；未上市。
  • 國內外債券、票券與同業拆放市場 提供公債、公司債、金融債、商業本票、定存單、附買回與同業拆借等投資及資金調度工具；非單一公司。
Downstream
  • 中小企業與企業金融客戶 企金放款、應收帳款、企業聯貸、海外台商融資、貿易融資與 ESG 授信主要客戶群；多為未上市或非單一公司。
  • 自然人、房貸與消費金融客戶 房貸、消費貸款、信用卡、綠色消費貸款、AI 領航菁英貸與數位帳戶服務對象；非單一公司。
  • 財富管理與信託客戶 基金、保險、外幣、信託、不動產開發信託、預售屋價金信託、保管銀行等服務對象；非單一公司。
  • 海外台商與跨境企業客戶 透過 OBU、馬來西亞納閩分行與海外服務據點提供外幣放款、聯貸、保證、匯款與貿易金融；非單一公司。
  • 不動產開發商與購屋戶 不動產開發信託、預售屋價金信託、買賣價金信託、房貸與修繕貸款相關下游客群；多為未上市或非單一公司。

Competitors

Sources（13）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.