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2849

安泰銀 Finance & Insurance As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

strong quality, fair valuation.

1 active signal
252d high
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 安泰銀 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 74Quality 65Growth 59Momentum 60Chips 97

Is 安泰銀 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Top-tier profitability.Operating margin beats ~85% of the market. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 1.4%.

  • Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 34th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 79th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 18.5% of volume (net buy).

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as 252-day price high are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.38
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 花旗環球 holds 667 lots
  • sellers have 29 lots left, ~40 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +9% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 花旗環球 has accumulated 667 lots since the start (sold 1%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 國泰-敦南 peaked at 104 lots, has sold 41%, 61 left, paused recently.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +0.04pp, mid holders +3, retail -0.09pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -114 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
花旗環球新光-桃園凱基-台北新光-台中台灣摩根士丹利臺銀
Distributing
國泰-敦南統一-城中凱基元大-竹科凱基-民權元大-新盛
Desks
own scale
群益金鼎-敦南美林華南永昌-世貿永豐金證券
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 花旗環球 +667
    sold 1%· still adding
  • 新光-桃園 +623
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 凱基-台北 +406
    sold 23%
  • 新光-台中 +321
    sold 5%
  • 台灣摩根士丹利 +320
    sold 4%· still adding
  • 臺銀 +120
    sold 6%· still adding

Distributing

  • 國泰-敦南 61 left
    sold 41%· paused recently
  • 統一-城中 32 left
    sold 45%· paused recently
  • 凱基 21 left
    sold 60%· ~16 sessions to clear
  • 元大-竹科 15 left
    sold 50%· paused recently
  • 凱基-民權 8 left
    sold 69%· paused recently
  • 元大-新盛 15 left
    sold 40%· paused recently

Desks

  • 群益金鼎-敦南 -466
    unclassified
  • 美林 -203
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 華南永昌-世貿 -156
    unclassified
  • 永豐金證券 -151
    unclassified
Still selling 29 lots ~40 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +561 absorbed / -28 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -108 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

252-day price high (breakout)

Active

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

27 historical occurrences (since 2010-05-03)
Average forward return after 252-day price high (breakout)。20-day: Win 30.8%, Sample 26, Median -2.22%, Excess -3.34%, Beat mkt rate 26.9%；60-day: Win 36%, Sample 25, Median -3.74%, Excess -4.5%, Beat mkt rate 36%；120-day: Win 28%, Sample 25, Median -4.75%, Excess -6.87%, Beat mkt rate 20%

120 days after: historical avg -2.51%

20-day -2.49%
60-day -1.66%
120-day -2.51%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
30.8%
36%
28%
Sample
26
25
25
Median
-2.22%
-3.74%
-4.75%
Excess
-3.34%
-4.5%
-6.87%
Beat mkt rate
26.9%
36%
20%

Over 25 occurrences, 120-day forward avg declined 2.51%, lagged the market by 6.87 pts; win rate 28%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 142-6.9% -7.5% 16.9% -22.7%
20-40 176+5.8% +3% 60.8% -2.7%
40-60 556+3.7% +1.7% 59.9% -8%
60-80 You are here1180+5.3% +2.9% 67.1% -9.8%
80-100 816+3.3% +3.5% 61.2% -23.9%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 16.92, at the 78.9th percentile of its own history (60-80 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
-9.3%
Win rate 0% Excess -18%
32d
-0.4%
Win rate 43.1% Excess -0.4%
392d
Now
+0.4%
Win rate 48.8% Excess -10.6%
1091d
60-day momentum down
-1%
Win rate 29.4% Excess -7.6%
211d
+4.3%
Win rate 66% Excess -1.9%
491d
+4.9%
Win rate 68.5% Excess -7.9%
771d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 1091 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 0.4%, win rate 48.8%, lagged the market by 10.6%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Pending

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

62 times historically; 60-day forward avg +1.09%, win rate 48.3%, beating the market by -1 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

49 times historically; 60-day forward avg -0.12%, win rate 45.7%, beating the market by -4.04 pts on average.

What does 安泰銀 do? Company profile

金融保險業／銀行業 台灣證券交易所上市

Overview

安泰商業銀行為台灣金融自由化後成立的新銀行之一，依公司與股市資料，成立日為1992/06/03，1993/04/15開始營業，1995年曾於櫃買中心上櫃，1999/09/27轉上市於台灣證券交易所，股票代號2849，為上市普通股。總部位於台北市信義區信義路五段7號16樓、40樓及41樓。董事長為俞宇琦，總經理為徐世偉，發言人張人偉，代理發言人陳琬鈺。實收資本額新台幣19,576,093,490元，已發行普通股1,957,609,349股。主要業務為銀行法規定之商業銀行業務，以及信託法、信託業法規定之信託業務。安泰銀2007年引進隆力集團（The Longreach Group）及相關投資人入主，為外資私募基金取得台灣本國銀行控制權的代表案例之一。依115年03月31日主要股東名單，持股逾1%的主要股東包括Longreach Edith Investment Cooperatief, U.A. 18.37%、Longreach Edith Investment Cooperatief 2, U.A. 18.37%、Longreach Edith Investment Cooperatief 3, U.A. 13.47%、OLHE Cayman Limited Partnership 7.49%、堉寶實業2.91%、宏泰人壽2.62%、寶慶投資2.42%、宏佳投資2.41%、豐陽投資2.40%、漢寶實業2.37%等。員工規模方面，2022年第2季投資人簡報揭露約1,496人、全台50家分行；較新的公開頁面可確認分行仍以個金分行約50家為核心，但2026最新員工數未能在公開來源中確認。

Business

安泰銀屬中小型商業銀行，商業模式以吸收存款、辦理企業與個人授信、收取存放利差，並透過財富管理、信託、保險、基金、信用卡、外匯、貿易融資、金融市場投資與交易取得手續費及交易收益。官網服務項目包含企業金融、個人金融、信用卡、網路銀行、WEBATM、基金、財富管理、保險、房貸、信貸、外匯、信託、企業理財、貿易融資、法拍屋、銀拍屋等。公開資料描述其組織以法人金融、金融市場、個人金融三大事業群為主；法人金融含法金業務管理、商人銀行與區域中心，金融市場以財務部負責資金運用及市場操作，個人金融涵蓋個金營運、理財產品、消金產品、保險經紀、客戶經營、信託、分行與消金區域中心。依公開資訊整理的營收／收益結構，主要來源為利息淨收益、手續費淨收益與金融資產交易相關收益；TechNews企業資料列示經營項目中利息淨收益約52.75%、手續費淨收益約24.25%、透過損益按公允價值衡量之金融資產及負債損益約24.24%，但該百分比為資料網站彙整口徑，非完整管理階層分部報告，需搭配年報及財報確認。2024年底放款總餘額約新台幣2,327億元，其中中小企業放款538億元、占23.13%，消費者貸款745億元、占32.02%；存款結構中外匯存款約503億元、外匯存款比率15.75%。2025年前三季淨收益42.19億元、稅後淨利11.45億元；手續費淨收益11.9億元、年增14.9%，交易相關收益年增6.7%，放款餘額至2025年9月底達2,533億元、年增10.3%，存款餘額3,334億元、平均存放比75.96%。主要客戶包含中小企業、企業授信與貿易融資客戶、一般個人存放款客戶、房貸與信貸客戶、信用卡客戶、財富管理與高資產客群。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025至2028年展望可分為成長動能與風險兩面。成長面：一、台灣銀行業在高利率後段循環中，存放利差、資產負債配置與資金成本管理仍是獲利核心；安泰銀2025年前三季放款與存款同步成長，且管理層表示利息淨收益已觸底回升，若資產品質維持穩健，2026至2028年仍可受惠於放款規模擴張與存放組合優化。二、財富管理與高資產客戶是明確策略重點；公開新聞指出安泰銀2026年以財富管理為核心成長引擎，規劃申請財管2.0執照並評估進駐高雄亞灣專區，若取得相關資格，手續費收入、基金保險銷售、境內外資產配置服務有機會提升。三、數位智能投資與客戶經營深化為中期方向，2026年策略包含資產穩健成長、提升財務績效、深化客戶經營、擴大數位智能投資、提升員工認同、優化組織效能。四、資本水準偏強，截至2025年6月底資本適足率16.15%、普通股權益比率與第一類資本比率14.97%，高於本國銀行平均，有利支應業務成長與抵禦景氣波動。五、台灣金融業整併仍是中期題材；國票金2021併購案雖因契約期限屆滿與主管機關因素未完成，但2025最高法院訴訟結果使國票金勝訴確定；2026年遠東銀董事長亦公開表示曾接觸安泰銀但卡在價格與股東意見，顯示安泰銀仍可能是市場整併標的。風險面：一、銀行業競爭激烈，中小型銀行規模經濟、低成本存款、數位金融投資能力較大型金控銀行弱。二、利率下行或存款競價可能壓縮淨利差，尤其若資金成本下降速度慢於資產收益率。三、房市與中小企業景氣若轉弱，可能影響房貸、消費金融與中小企業授信資產品質。四、金融市場波動會影響債券、外匯、衍生商品與金融資產評價收益。五、財管2.0、高資產業務、亞灣資產管理專區等成長題材受主管機關核准、人才、產品平台與法遵能力限制。六、股權高度集中於外資私募及特定法人股東，歷史併購案曾受股東意見與監理審查影響，未來資本政策、併購交易或經營權變化存在不確定性。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 存款客戶與一般資金供給者 銀行主要資金來源，包含活期、定期、外匯存款與企業／個人存款；屬客群而非單一台股公司。
  • 金融同業與貨幣市場 透過同業拆借、票券、債券、央行與金融市場工具調節流動性及資金成本；屬市場機制而非單一公司。
  • 基金、保險與金融商品供應商 支援財富管理、信託、基金、保險與高資產客戶商品架構；實際合作名單未於本次公開資料逐一確認。
  • 金融基礎設施與資訊服務供應商 包含聯徵、清算、支付、資訊系統、資安與數位銀行平台等銀行營運基礎；多數非上市櫃或非單一供應商。
Downstream
  • 中小企業客戶 企業授信、營運週轉、貿易融資與現金管理客戶；2024年底中小企業放款約新台幣538億元、占放款總額23.13%。
  • 個人金融客戶 房貸、信貸、信用卡、存款、外匯、網銀與分行服務客戶；2024年底消費者貸款約新台幣745億元、占放款總額32.02%。
  • 財富管理與高資產客戶 基金、保險、信託、投資配置與財管2.0潛在服務對象；為2026後管理層強調的成長方向。
  • 企業法人與金融市場交易客戶 企業理財、外匯、衍生性商品、商人銀行與財務操作方案客戶；實際客戶名單未公開揭露。

Competitors

Sources（18）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.