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2923

鼎固-KY Construction & Materials As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

strong quality, premium valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 鼎固-KY to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 43Quality 62Growth 94Momentum 70Chips 97

Is 鼎固-KY a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Top-tier profitability.Operating margin beats ~99% of the market. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 0.1%.

  • Valuation is high.PE is in the 86th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 77th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 19.6% of volume (net buy).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 133.6%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.30
BearishNeutralBullish

Institutional rotation, concentration steady — bullish

  • Institutional rotation, concentration steady — bullish
  • 凱基-台北 holds 707 lots
  • sellers have 67 lots left, ~25 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +25% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 凱基-台北 has accumulated 707 lots since the start (sold 5%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 元大證券 peaked at 161 lots, has sold 71%, 47 left, ~10 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +0.00pp, mid holders +2, retail -0.07pp — little change.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -79 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
凱基-台北花旗環球台灣摩根士丹利美商高盛國泰-敦南凱基
Distributing
元大證券元大-三重中國信託國泰-高雄台新證券新光-新竹
Desks
own scale
台新-建北美林凱基-北門元大-高雄
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 凱基-台北 +707
    sold 5%· still adding
  • 花旗環球 +555
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 台灣摩根士丹利 +433
    sold 4%· still adding
  • 美商高盛 +122
    sold 6%· still adding
  • 國泰-敦南 +119
    sold 16%· still adding
  • 凱基 +59
    sold 23%

Distributing

  • 元大證券 47 left
    sold 71%· ~10 sessions to clear
  • 元大-三重 15 left
    sold 70%· paused recently
  • 中國信託 18 left
    sold 49%· paused recently
  • 國泰-高雄 20 left
    sold 39%· paused recently
  • 台新證券 2 left
    sold 90%· paused recently
  • 新光-新竹 5 left
    sold 74%· ~25 sessions to clear

Desks

  • 台新-建北 -377
    unclassified
  • 美林 -357
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 凱基-北門 -172
    unclassified
  • 元大-高雄 -141
    unclassified
Still selling 67 lots ~25 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +391 absorbed / -60 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -79 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Mixed direction: big-holder and retail changes are not aligned.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 133.58%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

57 historical occurrences (since 2012-12-10)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 53.6%, Sample 56, Median +0.51%, Excess -1.38%, Beat mkt rate 42.9%；60-day: Win 45.5%, Sample 55, Median -0.8%, Excess -5.34%, Beat mkt rate 34.5%；120-day: Win 46.2%, Sample 52, Median -0.98%, Excess -9.91%, Beat mkt rate 19.2%

120 days after: historical avg -1.25%

20-day +0.31%
60-day -0.07%
120-day -1.25%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
53.6%
45.5%
46.2%
Sample
56
55
52
Median
+0.51%
-0.8%
-0.98%
Excess
-1.38%
-5.34%
-9.91%
Beat mkt rate
42.9%
34.5%
19.2%

Over 52 occurrences, 120-day forward avg declined 1.25%, lagged the market by 9.91 pts; win rate 46.2%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 331+23% +20% 92.7% -30.8%
20-40 194-7.2% -8.3% 14.9% -26.3%
40-60 365-2.6% -3.9% 38.6% -7%
60-80 You are here99-6.9% -10% 37.4% +3.6%
80-100 653+19.9% +21.4% 74.9% -2.9%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 50.57, at the 77.1th percentile of its own history (60-80 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
+8%
Win rate 59.1% Excess -9.6%
281d
-3.4%
Win rate 21% Excess -4.5%
162d
+2.4%
Win rate 57.7% Excess -8%
475d
60-day momentum down
+11.8%
Win rate 80.3% Excess -15.6%
173d
-2.6%
Win rate 33.3% Excess -6.8%
327d
Now
+12%
Win rate 76.9% Excess +6.2%
320d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum down”: across 320 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 12%, win rate 76.9%, beat the market by 6.2%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

19 times historically; 60-day forward avg -5.41%, win rate 33.3%, beating the market by -8.42 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

65 times historically; 60-day forward avg +0.8%, win rate 46.8%, beating the market by -4.47 pts on average.

What does 鼎固-KY do? Company profile

建材營造業／營建業；不動產開發、商辦租賃與物業管理 台灣證券交易所上市

Overview

2923 對應證券為鼎固-KY，發行公司為鼎固控股有限公司，英文名稱 Sino Horizon Holdings Limited，屬台灣證券交易所上市普通股，非 ETF、ETN、權證或特別股。公司於 2007年12月5日於開曼成立，2012年12月7日回台第一上市；公司沿革可追溯至張氏昆仲 2001年7月投資成立北京鼎固房地產開發有限公司後於中國大陸發展不動產業務。台北聯絡處位於台北市信義區基隆路一段420號10樓，上海辦公室位於上海市黃浦區徐家匯路610號34樓。董事長為張洪本，總經理為張能耀；2025 年年報說明董事長與總經理為一親等關係。實收資本額約新台幣 174.03 億元，已發行普通股約 17.40 億股。2025 年底員工 242 人，截至 2026年3月31日為 231 人，平均年齡約 42.57 歲、平均服務年資約 8.49 年。主要股東截至 2025年3月31日包括 True Elite Holdings Limited 38.95%、Great Sino Development Ltd. 19.54%、Sino Engine Group Ltd. 19.15%、Fairwheel Holdings Ltd. 10.00%、Forest Symbol Limited 4.87%、Excellent Worth Holdings Limited 4.87% 等；主要股東多為境外控股或託管帳戶。

Business

鼎固-KY 是以大中華區不動產為核心的營運公司，主要在中國大陸與台灣之主要城市經營房地產開發銷售、商場及辦公室租賃、物業管理等業務，主要營運地點集中於上海、重慶、昆山、台北，並於台中持有土地開發規劃。2025 年營收新台幣 57.95 億元，年減 32.33%；營收結構為房地產銷售 32.97 億元、占 57%，商辦租賃 18.07 億元、占 31%，物業管理 4.51 億元、占 8%，其他 2.41 億元、占 4%。公司獲利來源以住宅建案交屋認列、商場與辦公樓出租、物業管理為主，2025 年住宅銷售主要受惠江蘇昆山鼎耀伯爵大地等建案交屋認列；商辦租賃及物業管理等相關項目約 24.98 億元。主要專案包括上海日月光中心廣場、重慶日月光中心廣場、嘉定日月光中心、日月光科創中心、御華山、春申麗園、鼎耀花園、匯景華庭、鼎固君庭、鼎固華庭、台北鼎固日月光大樓等。公司商業模式兼具開發銷售與長期持有出租，透過優質地段、地鐵沿線或共構上蓋商業不動產取得租金現金流，並以住宅銷售回收開發資金。客戶端分散，年報揭露 2024-2025 年無占年銷貨總額 10% 以上之客戶。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025 年公司面臨中國大陸房地產需求疲弱、供需不平衡與商用不動產調整，建案銷售業績較 2024 年減少約四成，上海黃浦及嘉定日月光中心租賃率與租金坪效較 2024 年下降；2025 年另認列投資性不動產公允價值變動損失 79.54 億元，稅前淨損 59.91 億元、本期淨損 60.22 億元。2026 年公司公開展望指出，中國房地產仍處於信心修復與存量消化轉型期，經營方針為地產開發、財務穩健、永續發展，將優化商用不動產物業環境與管理品質以維繫租賃率，建案銷售地點以上海為主，昆山伯爵大地將進行成屋認列作業，商用不動產租賃率預計維持穩定；台中北屯 14 期土地已於 2025 年申報開工，未來配合市場情況規劃推案。2027-2028 年未見公司公開量化財測，合理推估關鍵成長動能包括：上海與嘉定核心商辦租賃改善、日月光科創中心完工後出租貢獻、昆山與上海既有住宅庫存去化、台中土地後續推案、商場導入體驗型消費與差異化租戶。主要風險包括中國房市復甦不確定、商辦新增供給與空置率壓力、租金坪效下滑、土地取得與開發審批風險、利率與資金成本、投資性不動產公允價值波動、人民幣與新台幣匯率、政策監管、流動性及建案交屋時程不確定性。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 宏潤建設集團股份有限公司 2025 年年報揭露為進貨達 10% 以上之主要供應商，金額約新台幣 6.83 億元、占進貨淨額 35%，為上海鼎霖建案工程總承包商；非台股掛牌公司，為中國大陸企業。
  • 長業建設集團有限公司 2024 年曾為進貨達 10% 以上供應商，主要承作上海鼎嘉及上海鴻翔五期建案工程；2025 年未列入 10% 以上供應商；非台股掛牌公司。
  • 上海市住安建設發展股份有限公司 2024 年曾為進貨達 10% 以上供應商，主要承作上海名龍四期建案工程；2025 年未列入 10% 以上供應商；非台股掛牌公司。
  • 中國地方政府土地主管機關及土地市場 房地產開發上游關鍵資源為土地使用權取得，年報說明中國土地供應通常由政府主導，土地成本、出讓條款與開發期限直接影響營運。
  • 建材、機電、營造承包商及第三方建築監理公司 公司本身為開發商與整合者，施工建造依賴合格承包商、建材供應商與第三方監理；未能逐一確認為台股掛牌公司，故 stock_id 設為 null。
Downstream
  • 住宅購屋客戶 房地產銷售終端客戶，年報揭露住宅銷售對象為不特定個人且分散，2024-2025 年無占年銷貨總額 10% 以上之客戶。
  • 商場商戶與零售、餐飲、娛樂、生活服務租戶 商辦租賃下游客戶，來自上海日月光中心、嘉定日月光中心、重慶日月光中心等商場與辦公樓租戶；年報未揭露單一重大租戶，且非特定台股掛牌公司。
  • 辦公室承租企業 寫字樓出租下游客戶，受企業辦公需求、商辦空置率與租金水準影響；年報未揭露單一重大客戶。
  • 物業管理服務使用者 包含住宅社區、商場與辦公樓使用者或承租戶，公司提供辦公室及商場物業管理服務，客戶高度分散。

Competitors

  • 華固建設 2548 台股上市建商，主要業務為住宅與商辦開發銷售；與鼎固在台灣不動產開發與資產型建案思路上具可比性，但營運區域與中國曝險不同。
  • 國泰建設 2501 台股上市大型建商，具住宅、商辦及資產開發經驗；規模、品牌與土地儲備能力為同業比較對象。
  • 遠雄建設 5522 台股上市建商，住宅與大型不動產開發案經驗豐富；可作為台灣營建開發同業比較。
  • 長虹建設 5534 台股上市建商，聚焦住宅與商辦開發，與鼎固的住宅及商辦產品類型部分相近。
  • 潤泰新 9945 台股上市公司，具不動產開發、商場與投資性不動產相關業務，可作為持有型資產與商用不動產營運比較對象。
  • 冠德建設 2520 台股上市建商，住宅、商辦與不動產開發業務具同業可比性。
  • 寶龍地產控股有限公司 香港上市中國商業地產與購物中心營運商，非台股掛牌；在中國商用不動產與購物中心營運層面具競爭參考性。
  • 龍湖集團控股有限公司 香港上市中國房地產及商業物業營運商，非台股掛牌；在中國住宅開發與商業地產租賃市場具競爭參考性。
Sources（13）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.