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3006

晶豪科 Semiconductor As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

strong quality, fair valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 晶豪科 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 29Quality 96Growth 97Momentum 82Chips 56

Is 晶豪科 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Top-tier profitability.Operating margin beats ~93% of the market. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 17.9%.

  • Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 57th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 80th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 1.2% of volume (net buy).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 296.8%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bearish -0.37
BearishNeutralBullish

Distribution to retail — bearish

  • Distribution to retail — bearish
  • 摩根大通 holds 9,307 lots
  • sellers have 5,514 lots left, ~876 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +42% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 摩根大通 has accumulated 9,307 lots since the start (sold 5%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 美商高盛 peaked at 6,255 lots, has sold 34%, 4,131 left, paused recently.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -4.50pp, mid holders +17, retail +2.06pp — drifting down to retail.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -11,304 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
摩根大通香港上海匯豐元大-館前花旗環球美林富邦-建國
Distributing
美商高盛富邦-新店兆豐-民生統一元富元大-士林
Desks
own scale
None永豐金證券新加坡商瑞銀元大證券
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 摩根大通 +9,307
    sold 5%· still adding
  • 香港上海匯豐 +3,888
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 元大-館前 +3,093
    sold 5%
  • 花旗環球 +2,679
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 美林 +1,791
    sold 12%· still adding
  • 富邦-建國 +1,100
    sold 5%· still adding

Distributing

  • 美商高盛 4,131 left
    sold 34%· paused recently
  • 富邦-新店 3,152 left
    sold 28%· ~876 sessions to clear
  • 兆豐-民生 2,028 left
    sold 42%· paused recently
  • 統一 1,074 left
    sold 62%· ~49 sessions to clear
  • 元富 801 left
    sold 65%· paused recently
  • 元大-士林 683 left
    sold 53%· paused recently

Desks

  • None -6,890
    unclassified
  • 永豐金證券 -6,618
    unclassified
  • 新加坡商瑞銀 -4,847
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 元大證券 -4,475
    unclassified
Still selling 5,514 lots ~876 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +4,265 absorbed / -1,154 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -7,926 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Weak direction: big-holder share fell while retail share rose.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 296.8%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

81 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 61%, Sample 77, Median +2.89%, Excess +3.15%, Beat mkt rate 54.5%；60-day: Win 52%, Sample 75, Median +0.34%, Excess +6.13%, Beat mkt rate 49.3%；120-day: Win 47.2%, Sample 72, Median -1.57%, Excess +8.88%, Beat mkt rate 37.5%

120 days after: historical avg +15.28%

20-day +5.02%
60-day +11.21%
120-day +15.28%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
61%
52%
47.2%
Sample
77
75
72
Median
+2.89%
+0.34%
-1.57%
Excess
+3.15%
+6.13%
+8.88%
Beat mkt rate
54.5%
49.3%
37.5%

Over 72 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 15.28%, beat the market by 8.88 pts; win rate 47.2%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 765+20.3% -4.9% 49.3% -11.3%
20-40 301+33.3% -15.3% 42.5% +27.1%
40-60 461+68.9% +30.8% 80.7% +49.1%
60-80 230+57.5% +32.3% 93.5% +35%
80-100 You are here166+37.5% +46.6% 62.7% +22.8%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 26.75, at the 80.2th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
+4.8%
Win rate 27% Excess -2.4%
382d
+31.3%
Win rate 84% Excess +20.6%
463d
Now
+22.5%
Win rate 70% Excess +1.9%
290d
60-day momentum down
0%
Win rate 40% Excess -5.9%
627d
+22.6%
Win rate 92.5% Excess +10.3%
187d
+149.8%
Win rate 98.9% Excess +98.5%
94d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 290 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 22.5%, win rate 70%, beat the market by 1.9%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

25 times historically; 60-day forward avg +7.36%, win rate 45.8%, beating the market by +1.5 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

59 times historically; 60-day forward avg +10.08%, win rate 70.7%, beating the market by +5.62 pts on average.

What does 晶豪科 do? Company profile

半導體業；利基型記憶體IC設計 上市（台灣證券交易所）

Overview

晶豪科技股份有限公司，簡稱晶豪科，英文簡稱 ESMT，成立於1998年6月2日，2002年3月4日上市，總部位於新竹科學園區新竹市工業東四路23號。公司為專業IC設計公司，董事長兼總經理為張明鑒，發言人為吳鴻基。資料顯示實收資本額約新台幣29.77億元、已發行普通股約2.98億股；113年年報列示員工638人，114年第1季為634人，其中研發技術人員約470人，研發人員占比高。主要股東依115年年報前十大股東資料包括匯豐銀行託管高盛國際公司投資專戶14,005,305股、4.71%；捷詠投資14,000,000股、4.71%；匯豐台灣商銀受託保管摩根士丹利國際有限公司投資專戶13,840,790股、4.66%；廖學邦9,015,000股、3.03%；陳興海8,411,629股、2.83%；摩根大通託管JP摩根證券有限公司專戶7,802,594股、2.63%；張明鑒5,523,825股、1.86%；另有花旗託管挪威中央銀行、瑞銀歐洲SE、柏克萊資本證券等外資專戶。公司過去透過合併集新擴展類比及混合訊號IC，並於2016年合併宜揚以強化NOR Flash相關產品。

Business

晶豪科為fabless IC設計公司，主要業務為DRAM、SRAM、Flash Memory、類比IC、類比與數位混合IC之研究、開發、製造、銷售及相關產品設計研發技術服務。113年度年報揭露積體電路IC銷售收入為新台幣134.85億元、占營收100%；2025年全年合併營收約145.75億元、年增8.08%。產品線包括低密度利基型DRAM與Mobile SDRAM/DDR1/DDR2/DDR3/DDR4/SDRAM、NOR Flash、NAND Flash、MCP/eMCP/eMMC、音訊處理IC（D類音頻放大器、A/D與D/A converter、Codec）、電源管理IC、IoT/AIoT Wireless SoC、Motor Driver、Sensor IC等。2026年初市場資料指出營收結構約55%來自以DDR3為主的DRAM產品線，DDR4約5%，另約35%來自SLC NAND、NOR與eMCP等Flash相關產品；此結構為法人與媒體估計，非公司完整分項財報。商業模式為自行設計與掌握記憶體IC核心技術，晶圓製造、封裝、測試委外，並透過代理商與客戶銷售；113年主要銷貨客戶以匿名A、B代理商揭露，分別占21%與13%，114年第1季分別占17%與10%。銷售地區方面，113年內銷約38%、亞洲外銷約61%、其他約1%。終端應用涵蓋PC與週邊、DVD/Set-top box、數位相機、掃描器、印表機、Cable Modem、ADSL、5G與AI產品、手機與可攜式裝置、液晶電視、伺服器、工作站、車用與家用音響、電源管理、物聯網與車用電子。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025年上半年利基型記憶體仍受消費疲弱、匯率與關稅不確定性壓力影響，但下半年受AI推升HBM與DDR5產能排擠，利基型DRAM、NOR與NAND Flash報價回升，2025年全年營收增至145.75億元、EPS約0.87元，第四季毛利率大幅改善。2026年成長動能包括：全球大廠將產能轉往HBM、DDR5與伺服器DRAM，DDR3以下與部分舊世代Flash供給收縮；公司低密度DRAM、NOR Flash與NAND/eMCP產品報價上行；25nm/21nm DDR4、LPDDR4、DDR3、LPDDR3、DDR2、LPDDR2持續擴充，19nm DRAM與19nm/40nm NAND導入，50nm NOR Flash擴業務，MCP/eMCP/eMMC擴線。公司亦推動aiPIM架構作為Edge AI Computing解決方案，車用產品已通過ISO 26262並有多顆產品通過車廠驗證，車規利基型記憶體為中長期動能。2026年6月新聞引述董事長表示，現有代工產能僅能滿足約六至七成客戶訂單，全年供需維持緊張，第二季合約價漲幅高於第一季，第三季漲幅可能收斂但價格大致平盤至小幅上漲；上半年受惠低價庫存，下半年新投片成本墊高可能使毛利率略下滑但維持高檔。2027至2028年展望主要取決於AI伺服器與Edge AI持續擴散、成熟製程記憶體供給是否仍受排擠、車用與工控長生命周期需求、以及19nm DRAM、NAND、NOR、車規與非記憶體產品能否量產放量。主要風險包括：記憶體循環反轉、價格漲幅不如預期、中國成熟製程與記憶體供給擴張、代工與封測產能不足、交期延誤、晶圓與封測成本上升、匯率波動、消費電子需求不振、韓國電視市場與中國國產替代競爭、客戶與代理商集中度、技術轉換與新產品導入不確定性。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 力積電 6770 晶圓代工與成熟製程產能供應鏈相關公司；2026年新聞提及力積電廠房出售、設備搬遷與產線調整可能影響成熟製程產出，晶豪科取得代工產能僅能滿足約六至七成客戶訂單。
  • 國內外知名半導體晶圓供應商 公司年報揭露主要原料為晶圓，主要由國內外知名半導體公司供應，未完整揭露公司名稱。
  • 後段封裝測試外包商 公司為IC設計公司，封裝與測試委外；年報與新聞僅揭露與封裝、測試外包商維持合作，未具名。
  • 中國晶圓代工廠 2026年新聞提及中國代工廠因內部AI需求難再提供更多產能；未揭露具體公司，非台股掛牌或未確認掛牌。
Downstream
  • 代理商A公司 113年年報以匿名方式揭露之主要銷貨客戶，113年銷貨金額約28.46億元、占銷貨淨額21%；114年第1季約4.83億元、占17%。名稱未公開。
  • 代理商B公司 113年年報以匿名方式揭露之主要銷貨客戶，113年銷貨金額約17.47億元、占銷貨淨額13%；114年第1季約2.80億元、占10%。名稱未公開。
  • PC、網通、消費性電子、電視、車用與工控終端客戶 DRAM、Flash、MCP、音訊IC與電源管理IC下游應用，包括PC與週邊、Set-top box、Cable Modem、5G/AI產品、TV、手機、伺服器、車用與家用音響等；多數客戶未具名。
  • 韓國電視品牌客戶 公司年報提及音頻放大器在韓國電視市場具成長機會並已通過大客戶驗證，但未揭露具體客戶；可能為韓國品牌供應鏈，非台股掛牌或未確認。

Competitors

  • 南亞科 2408 台股上市DRAM廠；年報列為國內競爭對手，與晶豪科在DRAM及利基型記憶體市場競爭。
  • 華邦電 2344 台股上市記憶體廠；年報列為國內競爭對手，產品涵蓋NOR Flash、Specialty DRAM等。
  • 鈺創 5351 台股上櫃IC設計公司；年報列為國內競爭對手，涉及記憶體與相關IC設計。
  • 力積電 6770 台股上市晶圓代工與記憶體相關公司；年報列為國內競爭對手之一，同時也是成熟製程供應鏈重要參與者。
  • 三星電子 韓國上市大型記憶體廠；年報列為國外競爭對手，非台股掛牌。
  • SK海力士 韓國上市大型記憶體廠；年報列為國外競爭對手，非台股掛牌。
  • 美光科技 美國上市大型記憶體廠；年報列為國外競爭對手，非台股掛牌。
  • Integrated Silicon Solution Inc. 國外利基型記憶體供應商；MoneyDJ列為國外競爭廠商，非台股掛牌。
Sources（13）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.