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3016

嘉晶 Semiconductor As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

steady quality, premium valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 嘉晶 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 13Quality 58Growth 79Momentum 96Chips 8

Is 嘉晶 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 64th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 2.0%.

  • Valuation is high.PE is in the 97th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 80th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -6.0% of volume (net sell).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 37.3%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.52
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 統一-南京 holds 585 lots
  • sellers have 8,848 lots left, ~307 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +104% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 統一-南京 has accumulated 585 lots since the start (sold 13%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 美商高盛 peaked at 6,309 lots, has sold 60%, 2,499 left, ~67 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +4.49pp, mid holders +8, retail -4.64pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -416 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
統一-南京國泰-敦南群益金鼎元大-信義元大-南海第一金-台南
Distributing
美商高盛台灣摩根士丹利凱基-台北摩根大通美林新加坡商瑞銀
Desks
own scale
永豐金-敦北兆豐-板橋統一-三重群益金鼎-中壢
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 統一-南京 +585
    sold 13%· still adding
  • 國泰-敦南 +438
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 群益金鼎 +358
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 元大-信義 +354
    sold 8%
  • 元大-南海 +305
    sold 0%
  • 第一金-台南 +304
    sold 0%· still adding

Distributing

  • 美商高盛 2,499 left
    sold 60%· ~67 sessions to clear
  • 台灣摩根士丹利 2,785 left
    sold 46%· paused recently
  • 凱基-台北 1,148 left
    sold 66%· ~8 sessions to clear
  • 摩根大通 1,838 left
    sold 42%· ~117 sessions to clear
  • 美林 655 left
    sold 79%· ~52 sessions to clear
  • 新加坡商瑞銀 982 left
    sold 65%· ~307 sessions to clear

Desks

  • 永豐金-敦北 -513
    unclassified
  • 兆豐-板橋 -428
    unclassified
  • 統一-三重 -366
    unclassified
  • 群益金鼎-中壢 -351
    unclassified
Still selling 8,848 lots ~307 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +2,633 absorbed / -3,870 sold sellers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -312 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 37.28%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

86 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 49.3%, Sample 73, Median -0.84%, Excess +2.95%, Beat mkt rate 43.8%；60-day: Win 50.7%, Sample 71, Median +0.74%, Excess +1.71%, Beat mkt rate 50.7%；120-day: Win 46.5%, Sample 71, Median -2.65%, Excess -3.23%, Beat mkt rate 38%

120 days after: historical avg +0.18%

20-day +4.05%
60-day +3.97%
120-day +0.18%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
49.3%
50.7%
46.5%
Sample
73
71
71
Median
-0.84%
+0.74%
-2.65%
Excess
+2.95%
+1.71%
-3.23%
Beat mkt rate
43.8%
50.7%
38%

Over 71 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 0.18%, lagged the market by 3.23 pts; win rate 46.5%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 251+8.7% -9.3% 43.4% -17.5%
20-40 635+27.2% +3.4% 59.1% +0.8%
40-60 371-0.8% -22.7% 29.9% -9.9%
60-80 335+9.3% -3% 48.4% -1.2%
80-100 You are here304+71.9% +65% 92.4% +42%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 298.78, at the 80.5th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
+6.6%
Win rate 40.7% Excess -3.8%
209d
+7.1%
Win rate 42.6% Excess +5.3%
439d
Now
+34.1%
Win rate 85.1% Excess +12.8%
396d
60-day momentum down
+7.1%
Win rate 44% Excess -4.7%
532d
-4.8%
Win rate 34.5% Excess -7.7%
281d
+45.3%
Win rate 98.7% Excess +27.2%
159d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 396 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 34.1%, win rate 85.1%, beat the market by 12.8%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

19 times historically; 60-day forward avg +3.66%, win rate 55.6%, beating the market by -2.44 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

46 times historically; 60-day forward avg +3.38%, win rate 52.3%, beating the market by -0.62 pts on average.

What does 嘉晶 do? Company profile

半導體業 上市

Overview

嘉晶電子為台灣上市普通股，股票代號3016，證券名稱「嘉晶」，英文簡稱EPi。公司成立於1998年11月9日，2002年12月24日上市，總部位於新竹市科學工業園區篤行一路10號。董事長為徐建華，總經理為溫錦祥。TWSE公開資料顯示截至2026年6月16日出表資料，實收資本額為新台幣2,885,418,190元、已發行普通股288,541,819股。公司2024年永續報告書揭露，2024年底正式員工718人，資本額同為新台幣2,885,418,190元。主要股東名單（公司官網，日期114/04/15）顯示漢磊科技股份有限公司持股166,961,680股、57.86%，為最大股東；南亞光電股份有限公司持股9,847,325股、3.41%；其餘主要股東包含葉文貴、嘉才投資有限公司、葉碧香等。嘉晶為漢磊科技轉投資公司，定位為專業磊晶製程與磊晶材料供應商。

Business

嘉晶主要從事Silicon/SiC/GaN磊晶材料之研究、開發、生產製造及銷售。主要產品包括矽磊晶片、埋藏層磊晶片、多層矽磊晶片、氮化鎵磊晶片、碳化矽磊晶片，應用於Power MOSFET、二極體、IGBT、PMIC等功率元件生產。營運據點與產線包含總部/篤行廠（4/5/6/8吋矽磊晶、4/6/8吋GaN-on-Silicon）、創新廠（4/5/6/8吋矽磊晶、4/6吋SiC）、磊新廠（4/5/6/8吋矽磊晶）、嘉積廠（6/8吋SiC）。2024年永續報告書揭露化合物半導體產品營收占整體營收14%，2023年為15%；第三方資料MoneyDJ則整理2024年營收比重為磊晶晶片100%。商業模式以客戶元件規格為基礎，依客戶電性與元件需求設計基板至磊晶層規格，提供磊晶代工/材料供應；終端應用涵蓋分離式元件、功率半導體、AI伺服器電源、PMIC、資料中心、5G/衛星通訊、航太、雷達、電動車、車載充電器、充電樁、太陽能逆變器、工業與消費性電子。公司未公開列示具名主要客戶，官方資料以「國際IDM廠」「大型晶圓代工廠」「國際一線客戶」「AI Server終端客戶供應鏈」等描述。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025年：公司2025/09/17法說會指出，上半年客戶仍處庫存調整，營收年減11%；矽磊晶中小尺寸需求下降，但8吋PMIC需求成長；GaN年減約21%、SiC年減約64%，主因地緣政治、客戶保守及中國內捲導致價格與出貨壓力。公司預期2025年下半年仍受汽車市場疲弱、美國關稅與半導體課稅不確定性影響，但8吋矽磊晶代工需求增加，將逐步擴產；8吋GaN完成製程開發與客戶驗證並小量試產，8吋SiC完成製程開發並送樣，預期2026年上半年量產。2026年：公司2026/04/29法說會揭露2026Q1營收新台幣10.59億元、年增18%、EPS 0.35元；矽磊晶受惠產品組合優化、產能利用率回升與8吋產能轉型，AI Power與PMIC帶動8吋需求。6吋GaN需求回溫並由虧轉盈，8吋GaN已小量試產；6吋SiC穩健，8吋SiC已有日系客戶驗證通過。新產品矽光子Ge/Si PD磊晶已完成驗證、小量生產，正式進入AI高速光通訊供應鏈。公司預期2026Q2營收季增逾20%，化合物磊晶季增約19%。2026-2028年：官方法說明確表示，AI相關應用帶動8吋矽磊晶需求高於預期，公司將加速8吋設備裝機與產能擴充，以滿足2026-2028年客戶對磊晶代工成長需求；GaN客戶產品切入AI Server/Space供應鏈，SiC日系IDM大廠客戶於2026Q2進入量產，矽光子Ge/Si PD磊晶通過國際一線客戶驗證並進入重要AI Server終端客戶供應鏈。主要風險包括中國半導體與SiC/GaN供給擴張造成價格競爭、終端需求與庫存循環、汽車與消費市場疲弱、地緣政治與關稅/半導體課稅、客戶集中或驗證進度不如預期、8吋擴產與良率爬坡不確定性。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 環球晶圓股份有限公司 6488 台灣上市櫃矽晶圓與半導體基板供應商，屬嘉晶矽磊晶製程上游材料鏈；未確認為嘉晶直接供應商。
  • 台灣勝高科技股份有限公司 3532 台灣上市矽晶圓供應商，屬矽磊晶上游基板材料鏈；未確認為嘉晶直接供應商。
  • 合晶科技股份有限公司 6182 台灣上櫃矽晶圓與SiC相關材料供應商，屬矽/化合物半導體磊晶上游材料鏈；未確認為嘉晶直接供應商。
  • 崇越科技股份有限公司 5434 台灣上櫃半導體材料與設備通路商，屬晶圓、化學品、設備等半導體供應鏈服務商；未確認為嘉晶直接供應商。
  • AIXTRON SE 德國上市磊晶設備供應商，MOCVD設備為GaN/SiC等化合物半導體磊晶製程重要設備類別；未確認為嘉晶直接供應商。
  • Linde plc / Air Liquide S.A. 海外上市工業氣體供應商，電子級氣體為磊晶製程上游材料；未確認為嘉晶直接供應商。
Downstream
  • 漢磊科技股份有限公司 3707 嘉晶最大股東漢磊科技同屬漢磊集團，漢磊定位為晶圓代工/功率半導體製造，嘉晶為磊晶材料供應商，具集團垂直整合關係；此處不等同確認全部交易客戶。
  • 國際IDM大廠 公司2026法說稱SiC新增日系IDM大廠客戶於2026Q2正式量產，並優先與國際IDM廠合作；公司未揭露具名客戶。
  • 大型晶圓代工廠 公司永續報告風險管理策略提及優先與大型晶圓代工廠合作以穩定量價；未揭露具名客戶。
  • AI Server終端客戶供應鏈 公司2026法說稱Ge/Si PD矽光子磊晶通過國際一線客戶驗證，進入重要AI Server終端客戶供應鏈；未揭露具名客戶。
  • 功率元件、PMIC、車用與工業客戶 嘉晶產品用於Power MOSFET、Diodes、IGBT、PMIC、車用充電、太陽能逆變器、工業電源等下游元件與系統；公司未公開具名主要客戶。

Competitors

  • 全新光電科技股份有限公司 2455 台灣上市III-V族磊晶廠，與嘉晶在化合物半導體磊晶能力及光電/射頻相關材料領域具可比性，但產品組合不同。
  • 環球晶圓股份有限公司 6488 台灣上櫃半導體矽晶圓與SiC材料鏈大廠，與嘉晶在第三代半導體材料與矽晶圓供應鏈投資題材上常被比較；環球晶偏上游晶圓/基板，嘉晶偏磊晶代工。
  • 合晶科技股份有限公司 6182 台灣上櫃矽晶圓廠，亦布局SiC相關材料；與嘉晶在矽/SiC供應鏈與第三代半導體題材上具部分競合。
  • 台灣勝高科技股份有限公司 3532 台灣上市矽晶圓供應商，屬矽磊晶上游與半導體材料競爭比較對象，非純磊晶代工同業。
  • IQE plc 英國上市化合物半導體磊晶代工廠，為全球III-V與化合物半導體磊晶服務競爭者。
  • Wolfspeed, Inc. 美國SiC材料與元件公司，為全球SiC基板/磊晶/元件供應鏈重要競爭者；其資本結構與上市狀態需以最新美國市場資料再確認。
  • 中國矽磊晶、SiC與GaN材料廠 嘉晶永續報告明確指出中國持續擴大半導體產能，未來可能供過於求形成價格競爭，是公司主要競爭風險來源之一；未列具名公司。
Sources（10）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.