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Help me set up FinLab and analyze 3178 公準. Please read: https://finlab.finance/en/setup?stock=3178
3178
quality needs a look, premium valuation, no active signal today.
Is 公準 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first
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Weak profitability.Operating margin is in the 23th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 0.0%.
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Valuation is high.PE is in the 100th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 98th percentile.
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Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -4.6% of volume (net sell).
Chip flow
Institutional rotation, concentration steady — neutral
Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +7% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12
- Largest holder 台新-府城 has accumulated 391 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
- Main distributor 凱基-台北 peaked at 262 lots, has sold 72%, 74 left, ~14 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
- TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +0.00pp, mid holders +0, retail +0.19pp — little change.
- Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -15 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Accumulating
- 台新-府城 +391
- 第一金-高雄 +382
- 群益金鼎-中壢 +101
- 亞東-高雄 +85
- 康和-仁愛 +77
- 台新-新營 +74
Distributing
- 凱基-台北 74 left
- 統一-南京 54 left
- 富邦-台北 14 left
- 摩根大通 41 left
- 台灣摩根士丹利 26 left
- 富邦-新板 17 left
Desks
- 新光 -144
- 國票-南港 -79
- 永豐金-桃園 -78
- 玉山-台南 -73
Weak direction: big-holder share fell while retail share rose.
Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.
Historical evidence
Valuation regime and subsequent returns
Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.
| PE percentile band | Sample days | 240-day avg return | Median | Win rate | Avg excess (vs index) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20 | 97 | +55.7% | +54.3% | 100% | +30% |
| 20-40 | 201 | +38.9% | +44.5% | 78.1% | +12.9% |
| 40-60 | 171 | -5.6% | -5.8% | 42.7% | -33.4% |
| 60-80 | 203 | -32.3% | -41.7% | 20.2% | -41.6% |
| 80-100 You are here | 44 | -13.6% | -14.2% | 0% | -26.5% |
Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.
Current PE ≈ 2875.0, at the 98.4th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).
Valuation × momentum historical grid
Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.
Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 48 historical days, 120-day forward avg declined 26.9%, win rate 0%, lagged the market by 29.9%.
Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.
Signals not active (historical stats for reference)
These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.
252-day price high (breakout)
PendingAdjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.
16 times historically; 60-day forward avg -2.99%, win rate 35.7%, beating the market by -10.62 pts on average.
Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)
PendingMonthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).
43 times historically; 60-day forward avg +8.8%, win rate 52.6%, beating the market by +5.1 pts on average.
Foreign net buying for 5 straight days
PendingForeign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.
29 times historically; 60-day forward avg +16.42%, win rate 64.3%, beating the market by +6.9 pts on average.
What does 公準 do? Company profile
Overview
3178 對應證券為公準精密工業股份有限公司，為櫃買中心上櫃普通股，非 ETF、ETN、權證或特別股。公司成立於 1978 年 3 月 27 日，總部位於高雄市仁武區八德二路 168 號，董事長為蘇友欣，總經理兼發言人為蘇虹音，2018 年 11 月 19 日上櫃。公開資料顯示實收資本額約新台幣 4.505 億元、已發行普通股 45,050,000 股。2024 年報列示 2024 年底員工 714 人、2025 年 3 月 31 日 736 人。主要股東包含路社投資 22.50%、耀華玻璃股份有限公司管理委員會 8.54%、蘇重虹 8.32%、蘇友欣 7.41%、巨展投資 6.42%、蘇虹音 5.72%。公司轉投資包含 Profit Snowball Ltd.、上海公準精密模具有限公司、微奈科技股份有限公司、制光粒科技股份有限公司等。
Business
公準以精密模具設計製造、精密機械加工、表面處理、組裝與測試能力為核心，供應高科技製程設備與航太應用之關鍵零組件，商業模式以依客戶圖面、規格與認證要求進行少量多樣、高精度客製化製造為主。2024 年營收結構依年報為：半導體類 61.67%、顯示器設備類 19.68%、航太類 15.78%、能源類 0.14%、其他 2.73%。2025 年前三季法說資料顯示半導體約 59%、顯示器設備約 30%、航太約 10%、其他約 1%，顯示器占比回升而航太受客戶拉貨週期影響下滑。主要產品包括半導體微影製程設備關鍵零組件、良率檢測設備零組件、電子束檢測設備零件、IC 封裝工模夾治具、CVD/PVD/OLED 顯示器設備腔體與零組件、航空伺服閥與致動器相關零組件、起落架致動器零件、發電與微渦輪引擎零組件。公開媒體指出主要合作或客戶包含 ASML、Applied Materials、日月光投控、群創、友達；年報則以甲乙丙丁戊代號揭露主要銷貨客戶，2024 年前五大客戶占比分別約 18.52%、13.66%、22.86%、11.23%、10.19%，客戶集中度偏高。
Outlook 2025–2028
2025 年公司營運受終端設備需求下修與客戶拉貨週期影響，全年營收約 12.57 億元、年減約 4.37%，稅後轉虧，EPS 約 -0.46 元；2026 年初營收已有回升跡象，2026 年 3 至 5 月單月營收分別約 1.43 億、1.15 億、1.20 億元，但獲利仍需觀察毛利率與稼動率恢復。2025 至 2028 年主要成長動能包括：半導體先進製程與先進封裝設備零組件需求，尤其微影、檢測、封裝模具與高精度次組裝產品；與荷商半導體設備大廠、德商光學雷射設備大廠、美國國際大廠合作開發高精度零件；顯示器領域切入新世代 OLED 設備零件；航太方面受惠航空客運復甦、波音與空巴機型零件需求、致動器與伺服閥零組件、衛星系統反應輪與反射鏡等新產品。公司高科廠規劃以半導體與航太產能為主，公開報導稱預計 2026 年第 3 季啟用，若順利量產可支撐 2027 至 2028 年接單與在地化商機。主要風險包括客戶集中度高、半導體設備資本支出循環波動、航太認證與拉貨週期長、OLED 景氣仍低迷、原物料如鈦合金與不鏽鋼價格波動、國際貿易與地緣政治、匯率、擴產時程與新產品良率不確定性。
Supply Chain
- 賀華 年報列為鈦合金、鋁材及不鏽鋼等主要原料供應商；未確認為台股上市櫃公司。
- 亞律渼 年報列為鈦合金、鋁材及不鏽鋼等主要原料供應商；未確認為台股上市櫃公司。
- 克普典 年報產業關聯圖列為附件供應商；未確認為台股上市櫃公司。
- NOZAG 年報產業關聯圖列為附件供應商；應為海外或非台股掛牌供應商。
- ASML Holding N.V. 荷商半導體設備大廠，公開資料與公司年報描述公準合作開發曝光機高精度零件與次組裝產品；非台股掛牌。
- Applied Materials, Inc. 美國半導體與顯示器設備大廠，媒體報導為公準設備大廠客戶之一；非台股掛牌。
- 日月光投控 3711 媒體報導指出公準封測相關產品與日月光投控合作，屬台股上市公司。
- 群創 3481 媒體報導指出為公準面板設備零組件客戶之一，屬台股上市公司。
- 友達 2409 媒體報導指出為公準面板設備零組件客戶之一，屬台股上市公司。
- 波音 公準法說資料提及以航太級標準研製波音 787 等機型之致動器、伺服閥與衛星系統關鍵零組件；美國上市公司，非台股。
- 空中巴士 公準法說資料提及空巴 A330 等航太應用；歐洲上市公司，非台股。
Competitors
Sources（13）
This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.
Method and limitations
- All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
- Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
- Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
- Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
- Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.
This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.