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3213

茂訊 Computer & Peripherals As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

strong quality, fair valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 茂訊 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 64Quality 84Growth 89Momentum 74Chips 90

Is 茂訊 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Top-tier profitability.Operating margin beats ~88% of the market. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 4.2%.

  • Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 41th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 99th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 10.0% of volume (net buy).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 78.8%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.85
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 美商高盛 holds 1,025 lots
  • sellers have 485 lots left, ~128 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +29% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 美商高盛 has accumulated 1,025 lots since the start (sold 15%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 凱基-台北 peaked at 875 lots, has sold 31%, 606 left, paused recently.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +0.11pp, mid holders +7, retail -6.33pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -13 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
美商高盛台灣摩根士丹利新加坡商瑞銀摩根大通台新-大昌美林
Distributing
凱基-台北統一港商野村富邦-新店凱基-鳳山(牛牛牛)亞-鑫豐
Desks
own scale
凱基-中港統一-嘉義永豐金-松山台新-台北
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 美商高盛 +1,025
    sold 15%· still adding
  • 台灣摩根士丹利 +842
    sold 2%· still adding
  • 新加坡商瑞銀 +585
    sold 19%· still adding
  • 摩根大通 +550
    sold 14%· still adding
  • 台新-大昌 +489
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 美林 +326
    sold 12%· still adding

Distributing

  • 凱基-台北 606 left
    sold 31%· paused recently
  • 統一 56 left
    sold 79%· paused recently
  • 港商野村 41 left
    sold 83%· ~12 sessions to clear
  • 富邦-新店 94 left
    sold 39%· paused recently
  • 凱基-鳳山 64 left
    sold 59%· ~128 sessions to clear
  • (牛牛牛)亞-鑫豐 71 left
    sold 52%· ~9 sessions to clear

Desks

  • 凱基-中港 -299
    unclassified
  • 統一-嘉義 -265
    unclassified
  • 永豐金-松山 -228
    unclassified
  • 台新-台北 -226
    unclassified
Still selling 485 lots ~128 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +3,420 absorbed / -403 sold buyers slightly ahead
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 78.78%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

69 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 54.2%, Sample 59, Median +0.74%, Excess +0.41%, Beat mkt rate 35.6%；60-day: Win 66.7%, Sample 57, Median +3.17%, Excess +0.89%, Beat mkt rate 50.9%；120-day: Win 69.6%, Sample 56, Median +9.05%, Excess -0.23%, Beat mkt rate 57.1%

120 days after: historical avg +6.73%

20-day +1.76%
60-day +4.8%
120-day +6.73%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
54.2%
66.7%
69.6%
Sample
59
57
56
Median
+0.74%
+3.17%
+9.05%
Excess
+0.41%
+0.89%
-0.23%
Beat mkt rate
35.6%
50.9%
57.1%

Over 56 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 6.73%, lagged the market by 0.23 pts; win rate 69.6%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 576-1% -3.8% 43.1% -6%
20-40 551+14% +19.8% 64.4% -3.5%
40-60 616+27.4% +22.1% 84.1% +9.5%
60-80 487+23.7% +17.8% 82.8% +3.6%
80-100 You are here793+35.8% +24% 87.4% +15%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 18.72, at the 99.2th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
-1.1%
Win rate 40.6% Excess -4%
401d
+13.6%
Win rate 83.5% Excess +2.7%
647d
Now
+15.9%
Win rate 73.3% Excess +5.2%
979d
60-day momentum down
+0.4%
Win rate 43.4% Excess -1.2%
523d
+9.5%
Win rate 75% Excess +2.9%
284d
+12.9%
Win rate 82.5% Excess -3.9%
309d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 979 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 15.9%, win rate 73.3%, beat the market by 5.2%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

32 times historically; 60-day forward avg +2.71%, win rate 58.1%, beating the market by -0.86 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

52 times historically; 60-day forward avg +1.97%, win rate 56%, beating the market by -0.56 pts on average.

What does 茂訊 do? Company profile

電腦及週邊設備業；筆記型電腦、工業電腦、強固型電腦 上櫃

Overview

3213 對應證券為櫃買中心上櫃普通股「茂訊」。公司成立於 1990 年 3 月，2004 年 10 月 1 日上櫃，總部位於新北市深坑區北深路三段 250 號 7 樓。董事長兼總經理為沈頤同，發言人為周詠翔。實收資本額約新台幣 5.87 億元，已發行普通股約 58,685,547 股。公司以 MilDef 品牌銷售全球，官方法說資料稱全球員工 300 人以上、台灣 3 個製造工廠、100% 在台灣研發製造生產，並在歐美及亞太有據點或合作夥伴。主要股東與董監經理人持股中，可確認沈頤同持股約 3,126,244 股、南港輪胎股份有限公司持股約 2,150,829 股、呂明孝持股約 945,563 股；2026 年股東會改選董事名單包含沈頤同、南港輪胎代表人林君穎、呂明孝、蔡文純等。

Business

茂訊有兩個主要事業：一是全強固系統事業部，設計、研發、製造攜帶式強固型電腦與電子產品，包括強固型筆電、平板、手持式裝置、車載型電腦、強固型鍵盤、軍規連接埠與客製化電子設備，應用於軍工、政府、礦業、工業廠房、安防、防爆車輛、無人機或無人設備地面控制電腦等惡劣環境；公司強調 MIL-STD-810H、MIL-STD-461G 等軍規與 EMI 抗干擾認證，並提供 BIOS、Firmware、EC、Drivers、Android APK、iOS 等硬體與軟體客製化。二是通路事業部，從事商用筆記型電腦、平板及週邊商品之連鎖專賣與維修服務，代理或銷售華碩、宏碁、惠普、華為等品牌產品。2024 年營收結構約為商用筆電專賣店 48%、強固型筆電 49%、維修服務及其他 3%；2024 年地區銷售約亞洲 55%、歐洲 37%、美洲 7%、大洋洲 1%。2025 法說資料顯示 112 年度通路事業部營收 1,492,695 千元、系統事業部 1,496,379 千元；113 年度通路 1,445,931 千元、系統 1,407,760 千元；114 年前三季通路 1,139,750 千元、系統 1,209,867 千元。通路事業部自稱筆電資訊連鎖通路市占率 16.13%、排名第 1，會員數約 268,842 人。2025 年全年合併營收依 Yahoo 股市資料為 2,887,211 千元，較 2024 年 2,853,390 千元小幅成長 1.19%。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025 至 2028 年主要成長動能來自國防預算上升、地緣政治緊張、北約與歐洲軍防需求、台灣國防追加預算、中東軍費增加、無人機與無人設備普及、AI 影像分析與戰場資訊化帶動強固型運算設備升級。公司 2025 法說指出，歐洲北約軍防訂單劇增，2026 年資本投資計畫包括新增 2 條生產線，目標擴充 1 倍以上產能，預計 2026 年第 2 季完成；倉庫擴充預計 2026 年第 1 季完成；研發與各部門增員持續進行；SMT 產線規劃專線專用並承接外單，設備投資預計 2026 年第 1 季完成；新產品開發聚焦 AI 人工智慧、無人設備電腦航控系統與強固無人機或機器地面控制電腦。公司亦規劃 2026 至 2030 的系統市場準備，表示獲利能力持續增加、市場格局擴大。通路端則以穩中求進、控制庫存水位為主，2026 年 AI PC 市占率有望提高，但記憶體漲價可能抑制消費需求，全球筆電出貨成長可能有限。主要風險包括 DRAM/NAND 與 SSD 價格上漲、AI 資料中心排擠記憶體供給、松下部分電芯停產、鋰電池與稀土出口管制、匯率波動、國防訂單交期與驗收節奏、客製化少量多樣造成的供應鏈與品質管理壓力、通路庫存與消費性 PC 需求不振，以及軍工需求受政治預算周期影響。2027 至 2028 年具體財務目標未見公司公開量化，因此僅能合理推估強固型電腦、無人設備控制端、AI 邊緣運算與國防數位化將延續中期需求，但實際成長率需觀察訂單揭露、產能爬坡與毛利率。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 華碩電腦股份有限公司 2357 商用筆電通路事業進貨與銷售品牌之一；屬台股上市公司。
  • 宏碁股份有限公司 2353 商用筆電通路事業進貨與銷售品牌之一；屬台股上市公司。
  • 惠普 HP Inc. 商用筆電通路事業進貨與銷售品牌之一；美國上市公司，非台股掛牌。
  • 華為技術有限公司 商用筆電通路事業進貨與銷售品牌之一；未於台股上市櫃。
  • 三星電子 2025 法說列為 DRAM/NAND 供應鏈挑戰來源之一；韓國上市公司，未確認為茂訊直接供應商。
  • 美光科技 Micron Technology 2025 法說列為 DRAM/NAND 供應鏈挑戰來源之一；美國上市公司，未確認為茂訊直接供應商。
  • SK 海力士 SK hynix 2025 法說列為 DRAM/NAND 供應鏈挑戰來源之一；韓國上市公司，未確認為茂訊直接供應商。
  • 松下 Panasonic 2025 法說提及松下電芯部分型號停產衝擊工控電池供需；日本上市公司，未確認為茂訊直接供應商。
  • 輝達 NVIDIA 公司產品資訊提及搭配 AI GPU NVIDIA 人工智慧硬體平台；美國上市公司，未確認採購模式。
  • 液晶顯示器、CPU、記憶體、硬碟、鋰電池供應商 年報與產業資料揭露強固型筆記型電腦重要原物料類別，但未揭露完整直接供應商名單。
Downstream
  • 歐洲與北約國防客戶 強固型電腦與客製化軍規電子設備主要需求來源之一；公司法說稱歐洲北約軍防訂單劇增，但未揭露個別客戶名稱。
  • 台灣政府與國防單位 強固型電腦、無人設備控制端與國防資訊化應用潛在或既有客戶群；屬政府機關，非上市櫃公司。
  • 中東國防與政府客戶 公司展望提及中東軍費增加帶動軍工需求；個別客戶未揭露。
  • 工業廠房、礦業與惡劣環境作業客戶 強固型筆電、平板、手持式裝置與車載型電腦終端應用客群；多為未揭露企業或專案客戶。
  • 台灣商用筆電消費者與企業客戶 通路事業部透過全台筆電連鎖門市銷售商用筆電、平板與週邊，面向個人、企業與會員客戶。

Competitors

Sources（12）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.