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Help me set up FinLab and analyze 3252 海灣. Please read: https://finlab.finance/en/setup?stock=3252
3252
strong quality, premium valuation, no active signal today.
Is 海灣 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first
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Top-tier profitability.Operating margin beats ~85% of the market. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 0.8%.
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Valuation is high.PE is in the 91th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 76th percentile.
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Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 5.9% of volume (net buy).
Chip flow
Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -2% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12
- Largest holder 華南永昌-台中 has accumulated 974 lots since the start (sold 1%), holding.
- Main distributor 第一金 peaked at 10 lots, has sold 90%, 1 left, ~1 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
- TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +4.19pp, mid holders +1, retail -2.85pp — concentration shifting upward.
- Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -59 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Accumulating
- 華南永昌-台中 +974
- 聯邦-興中 +491
- 合庫證券 +247
- 永豐金證券 +124
- 統一-彰化 +45
- 國泰-新莊 +45
Distributing
- 第一金 1 left
- 元大-歸仁 3 left
- 元大-仁愛 1 left
- 元大-內湖民權 3 left
- 元大-屏南 3 left
- 凱基-新莊 1 left
Desks
- 台新-台中 -218
- 大昌-樹林 -159
- 元富-屏東 -120
- 富邦-內湖 -101
Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.
Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.
Historical evidence
Valuation regime and subsequent returns
Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.
| PE percentile band | Sample days | 240-day avg return | Median | Win rate | Avg excess (vs index) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20 | 169 | -25.7% | -25.2% | 0% | -54.3% |
| 20-40 | 93 | +12.3% | +10.8% | 52.7% | -51% |
| 40-60 | 318 | +15.6% | +12.2% | 81.8% | -61.2% |
| 60-80 You are here | 81 | +18.3% | +10% | 70.4% | -6.9% |
| 80-100 | 115 | -31.7% | -29.9% | 0% | -58.7% |
Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.
Current PE ≈ 119.0, at the 76.3th percentile of its own history (60-80 band).
Valuation × momentum historical grid
Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.
Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum down”: across 105 historical days, 120-day forward avg declined 3.4%, win rate 48.6%, lagged the market by 58.5%.
Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.
Signals not active (historical stats for reference)
These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.
252-day price high (breakout)
PendingAdjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.
14 times historically; 60-day forward avg -3.74%, win rate 30.8%, beating the market by -7.66 pts on average.
Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)
PendingMonthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).
93 times historically; 60-day forward avg +1.47%, win rate 38.8%, beating the market by -0.52 pts on average.
Foreign net buying for 5 straight days
PendingForeign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.
15 times historically; 60-day forward avg -0.22%, win rate 33.3%, beating the market by -2.19 pts on average.
What does 海灣 do? Company profile
Overview
3252 對應證券為上櫃普通股「海灣」，公司全名為海灣國際開發股份有限公司，英文名 Haiwan International Development Co., Ltd.。公司成立日期為 1994/07/19，掛牌上櫃日期為 2004/09/23，總部位於臺中市西區民龍里大和路22號3樓，電話 04-23026088，統一編號 84919932。董事長兼總經理為劉至誠；董事會包含金石獎建設股份有限公司代表人劉至誠、劉佳展及多名獨立董事。公開股市資料顯示實收資本額約新台幣 501,957,540 元，已發行普通股約 50,195,754 股。年報揭露 114 年度營業收入淨額 495,921 仟元、稅後淨利 17,339 仟元，每股盈餘 0.13 元；115 年第一季重大訊息揭露營收 140,524 仟元、歸屬母公司業主淨利 4,616 仟元、EPS 0.09 元。主要股東名單年報列示包含海灣投資股份有限公司、鄭金鴻、魏耀文、歐淑卿、金石獎建設股份有限公司、李宗叡、彭大紅、魏瑜萱、劉玟君、海功建設有限公司；惟 PDF 文字抽取未能完整確認各自持股數與比例。公司重要轉投資包含中科大飯店股份有限公司、新中科事業股份有限公司、舞波比餐飲有限公司、希爾頓股份有限公司、海灣樂世界股份有限公司、惠鑫順土地開發股份有限公司等，均非台股上市櫃公司。
Business
海灣由原記憶體相關業務轉型為國際觀光飯店與不動產開發業者，現行業務主要包括：國際觀光飯店租賃、土地投資開發買賣、國內飯店投資經營、建築物投資設計營建買賣、LED 電子看板廣告承攬與製播、海洋深層水系列商品販售。114 年度產品營收結構為客房收入 258,861 仟元、占 52%；餐飲收入 204,746 仟元、占 41%；其他營業收入 32,314 仟元、占 7%。飯店與觀光事業的主要營運據點包括新北深坑假日酒店、台中中科大飯店、后豐商務會館，餐飲服務由舞波比餐飲有限公司經營老井極上燒肉，休閒遊樂事業為海灣樂世界與海灣 HiONE 啵比星球。主要客群包含一般旅客、商務客、團體餐飲與會議需求、親子與寵物友善休閒客群；不動產業務則以台灣市場的土地投資、開發與買賣為主。公司年報表示無單一客戶占銷貨金額比例超過 30%，飯店物料採分散採購，建設工程多採外包並透過監工制度控管品質。
Outlook 2025–2028
2025 至 2028 年展望可分為三條主軸。第一，觀光餐旅復甦與國旅、入境旅客回升：年報引用觀光資料指出 2025 年來台旅客較 2024 年成長，且日本、韓國、東南亞、美洲、歐洲等市場皆為重要客源；若入境觀光與商務旅遊延續復甦，深坑、台中與后豐等飯店的住房率、平均房價及餐飲收入有改善空間。第二，餐飲與親子休閒擴張：公司明確提到老井極上燒肉積極拓展燒肉餐飲市占率，海灣 HiONE 啵比星球引進擬真恐龍、定位亞洲大型親子寵物友善樂園，未來可透過主題化、套票、餐飲與周邊商品提高客單價。第三，資產活化與不動產開發：公司表示涉及都更或地目變更者屬長期工作，既有建案依原定進度，新建案將依市場情況調整；若台中或新北資產順利活化，可能帶來一次性或中長期收益。主要風險包括：飯店業受政治環境、來台旅客量、天候、淡旺季、同區飯店與民宿競爭影響；國旅費用與海外旅遊價差縮小使國內住宿需求受壓；餐飲業面臨食材、人力與租金成本壓力；不動產業受信用管制、土地取得成本、銷售率、建材成本與法規變動影響；極端氣候可能造成原物料短缺與營運成本上升。由於公司未提供 2026 至 2028 量化財測，以上為依年報策略、產業資料與已公告營運資訊整理之定性展望。
Supply Chain
- 中部營造廠商與建築師、建材供應商 年報指出營建工程均外包，與中部各營造廠保持良好關係；未揭露主要單一台股上市櫃供應商名稱。
- 飯店食材、飲料、周邊商品與房務備品供應商 飯店經營所需食材、飲料、周邊商品及房間備品採分散採購，單項金額多不重大；未揭露主要供應商名稱。
- LED 看板製造、位點租賃、電信網路與廣告製播供應商 多媒體數位電子看板事業的上游與中游包含 LED 看板製造、位點租賃、電信網路與廣告製播商；未揭露具名供應商。
- 金融機構 不動產開發與飯店營運涉及土地取得、營建及長期借款契約，年報僅概述與金融機構往來，未列示可確認之單一台股上市櫃銀行作為主要供應商。
- 一般旅客與商務客 飯店客房、餐飲、會議、休閒與渡假服務的主要終端消費者；年報特別提及中科大飯店與后豐會館服務商務客群。
- 餐飲散客與團體客 舞波比餐飲及老井極上燒肉的主要消費族群，屬終端消費者，非台股掛牌公司。
- 親子、寵物友善與休閒遊樂消費者 海灣樂世界與 HiONE 啵比星球的終端客群，包含家庭旅遊、親子遊樂及寵物友善需求。
- 不動產購屋者、代銷與仲介通路 不動產投資開發業務的下游包含代銷、仲介與最終購屋者；年報未揭露具名上市櫃客戶或通路。
- 廣告主 LED 電子看板與戶外媒體平台的下游為廣告主；未揭露具名主要客戶，且公司表示無單一客戶占銷貨金額超過 30%。
Competitors
- 晶華 2707 台股上市觀光飯店公司，與海灣飯店住宿、餐飲與宴會業務具同業比較性。
- 六福 2705 台股上市觀光餐旅與旅館休閒業者，與海灣在旅館、餐飲及休閒旅遊市場競爭。
- 夏都 2722 台股上櫃觀光飯店業者，與海灣同屬台灣飯店住宿市場競爭者。
- 寒舍 2739 台股上市飯店餐飲業者，與海灣飯店餐飲及住宿業務具競爭關係。
- 雲品 2748 台股上市飯店與餐飲管理業者，與海灣在旅館、餐飲及休閒度假市場具競爭關係。
- 富野 2736 台股上櫃旅館業者，與海灣飯店業務具同業比較性。
- 瓦城 2729 台股上櫃連鎖餐飲業者，與海灣旗下餐飲事業在餐飲消費市場競爭。
- 王品 2727 台股上市連鎖餐飲集團，與老井極上燒肉等餐飲品牌在聚餐與燒肉相關消費市場競爭。
- 八方雲集 2753 台股上市餐飲業者，屬餐飲消費市場競爭者，但客單價與品牌定位和海灣旗下燒肉餐飲不同。
- 鄉林 5531 台股上市營建與觀光飯店相關業者，與海灣不動產開發及觀光資產營運具部分同業比較性。
Sources（10）
This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.
Method and limitations
- All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
- Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
- Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
- Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
- Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.
This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.