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3406

玉晶光 Optoelectronics As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

strong quality, fair valuation.

2 active signals
252d high Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 玉晶光 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 44Quality 77Growth 74Momentum 87Chips 49

Is 玉晶光 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Top-tier profitability.Operating margin beats ~83% of the market. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 3.4%.

  • Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 49th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 58th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 0.3% of volume (net buy).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 30.2%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as 252-day price high, Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.82
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 摩根大通 holds 3,264 lots
  • sellers have 2,031 lots left, ~97 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +60% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 摩根大通 has accumulated 3,264 lots since the start (sold 16%), now trimming.
  • Main distributor 港商麥格理 peaked at 1,444 lots, has sold 55%, 655 left, ~10 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +3.07pp, mid holders +7, retail -5.68pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -477 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
摩根大通台灣摩根士丹利港商野村美商高盛凱基-站前華南永昌-古亭
Distributing
港商麥格理新加坡商瑞銀花旗環球國票-敦北法人國票-安和香港上海匯豐
Desks
own scale
永豐金證券元大證券群益金鼎統一-新竹
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 摩根大通 +3,264
    sold 16%
  • 台灣摩根士丹利 +2,090
    sold 11%· still adding
  • 港商野村 +1,979
    sold 4%· still adding
  • 美商高盛 +1,413
    sold 4%· still adding
  • 凱基-站前 +1,120
    sold 0%
  • 華南永昌-古亭 +997
    sold 0%· still adding

Distributing

  • 港商麥格理 655 left
    sold 55%· ~10 sessions to clear
  • 新加坡商瑞銀 805 left
    sold 33%· ~23 sessions to clear
  • 花旗環球 302 left
    sold 56%· ~8 sessions to clear
  • 國票-敦北法人 149 left
    sold 64%· paused recently
  • 國票-安和 240 left
    sold 36%· paused recently
  • 香港上海匯豐 140 left
    sold 54%· ~33 sessions to clear

Desks

  • 永豐金證券 -1,511
    unclassified
  • 元大證券 -1,255
    unclassified
  • 群益金鼎 -696
    unclassified
  • 統一-新竹 -477
    unclassified
Still selling 2,031 lots ~97 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +5,306 absorbed / -1,517 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -85 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

252-day price high (breakout)

Active

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

21 historical occurrences (since 2009-12-31)
Average forward return after 252-day price high (breakout)。20-day: Win 71.4%, Sample 21, Median +16.32%, Excess +19.05%, Beat mkt rate 66.7%；60-day: Win 73.7%, Sample 19, Median +14.04%, Excess +32.8%, Beat mkt rate 52.6%；120-day: Win 66.7%, Sample 18, Median +33.46%, Excess +55.18%, Beat mkt rate 61.1%

120 days after: historical avg +65.5%

20-day +21.73%
60-day +38.5%
120-day +65.5%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
71.4%
73.7%
66.7%
Sample
21
19
18
Median
+16.32%
+14.04%
+33.46%
Excess
+19.05%
+32.8%
+55.18%
Beat mkt rate
66.7%
52.6%
61.1%

Over 18 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 65.5%, beat the market by 55.18 pts; win rate 66.7%.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 30.24%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

94 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 43.8%, Sample 89, Median -1.63%, Excess +0.25%, Beat mkt rate 40.4%；60-day: Win 48.9%, Sample 88, Median -0.57%, Excess +4.71%, Beat mkt rate 43.2%；120-day: Win 54.7%, Sample 86, Median +4.54%, Excess +12.45%, Beat mkt rate 44.2%

120 days after: historical avg +19.9%

20-day +0.89%
60-day +8.23%
120-day +19.9%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
43.8%
48.9%
54.7%
Sample
89
88
86
Median
-1.63%
-0.57%
+4.54%
Excess
+0.25%
+4.71%
+12.45%
Beat mkt rate
40.4%
43.2%
44.2%

Over 86 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 19.9%, beat the market by 12.45 pts; win rate 54.7%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 932+21.9% +10.2% 65.8% -8%
20-40 407-5.9% -12.7% 22.6% -19.6%
40-60 You are here224-1.3% -3.4% 42.9% -10.6%
60-80 160-13.1% -24.3% 25% -12.6%
80-100 141+38.5% +39.7% 89.4% +24.4%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 21.88, at the 58.4th percentile of its own history (40-60 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
+6.7%
Win rate 60% Excess -8.9%
623d
Now
-8%
Win rate 34.5% Excess -10.3%
267d
-4.8%
Win rate 56.2% Excess -6.4%
185d
60-day momentum down
+14%
Win rate 65.3% Excess +1.1%
734d
+27%
Win rate 58.5% Excess +28.5%
106d
+31.4%
Win rate 95.7% Excess +26.1%
69d

Currently in “Mid × 60-day momentum up”: across 267 historical days, 120-day forward avg declined 8%, win rate 34.5%, lagged the market by 10.3%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

54 times historically; 60-day forward avg +13.84%, win rate 57.7%, beating the market by +7.45 pts on average.

What does 玉晶光 do? Company profile

光電業；精密光學鏡頭、鏡片與光學元件 上市（台灣證券交易所）

Overview

3406 對應玉晶光電股份有限公司，為台灣上市普通股，非 ETF/ETN/權證。公司成立於1990-02-08，公開發行日為2004-06-08，上市掛牌日為2005-12-20，總部位於台中市大雅區中部科學工業園區科雅東路一號。董事長為陳天慶，總經理兼發言人為郭英理。實收資本額約新台幣11.27億元，已發行普通股112,743,063股。2025年年報刊印日前集團從業員工合計約10,933人，其中技術人員9,601人、行政管理1,257人、業務75人；平均年齡約32.48歲、平均服務年資約4.49年。重要子公司包含玉晶光電（廈門）有限公司、GLOBALIZE INTERNATIONAL LTD.、茂晶光電（廈門）有限公司。主要股東與內部人可確認包含董事長陳天慶、陳天恕及晶懋投資等；公開資料顯示陳天慶持股約7,239千股、陳天恕約5,330千股，惟完整最終受益人與最新比例仍應以公開資訊觀測站及股東名冊為準。

Business

玉晶光為B2B精密光學零組件廠，核心業務是各類光學鏡頭、鏡片研發與生產製造，並有LED照明產品。依2025年度產品營收分布，鏡頭製品約18,656,340千元、占75%，其他約6,332,470千元、占25%；2025年合併營收約24,988,810千元，年增約8%，每股盈餘32.84元。主要產品包括手機相機鏡頭、傳統/數位相機鏡頭、筆電鏡頭、光學鏡片、觀景窗/光學滑鼠/指紋辨識器等用鏡片、LED照明製品，並延伸至AR智慧眼鏡、VR、車載鏡頭、醫療鏡頭、工業AI鏡頭、人形機器人鏡頭、光通訊與共同封裝光學等新應用。公司具光學設計、超精密模仁加工、塑膠射出成型、鍍膜、組立、對焦與檢測能力，屬中游光學元件製造商。年報揭露主要原料為塑料，主要供應商以代號匿名揭露且供應狀況良好；主要銷售客戶亦以匿名代號揭露，2024年前二大客戶分別占銷貨淨額約32.36%與31.15%，顯示客戶集中度高。外部媒體與法說資訊指出公司主攻蘋果iPhone鏡頭供應，但公司正式年報未揭露終端客戶真名，因此客戶名稱仍以推估處理。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025至2026年主要成長動能來自高階手機鏡頭規格升級、潛望式鏡頭導入更多機種、超廣角/前鏡頭與高畫素鏡頭需求、AR/AI智慧眼鏡及VR新設計。2025年公司研發費用約2,089,028千元、年增4%，重點為各式光學鏡頭、新產品開發與技術提升；2026年營業重心仍集中手機相機鏡頭，並持續布局LED照明、車載鏡頭、VR與利基光學產品。2026年前5月公司營收約10,083,598千元，年增19.67%，顯示旺季前拉貨與新產品動能延續。中期至2028年可觀察三條主線：一是智慧型手機鏡頭持續往輕薄、高畫素、望遠、可變光圈、塑膠稜鏡、超微小鏡頭與高良率潛望式鏡頭升級；二是AI智慧眼鏡、AR/VR、AirPods相機/空間感測等穿戴式裝置若放量，將擴大微型鏡頭、感測鏡頭、微型投影與有度數鏡片需求；三是車載、醫療、機器人、工業AI視覺與光通訊微透鏡/準直元件仍屬中長期可選成長項。主要風險包括單一美系終端客戶與少數大客戶集中、消費電子景氣循環、VR需求波動、匯率升值侵蝕獲利、潛望式與高階鏡頭良率/爬坡風險、關稅與供應鏈韌性要求、廈門出貨與地緣政治/出口管制、與大立光及中國/國際光學廠競爭加劇。2027至2028年的具體營收與獲利數字未見公司正式預測，以上為依公司年報、法說與產業趨勢推估。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 匿名塑料供應商A公司/甲公司 年報揭露主要原料為塑料，供應商以A公司、甲公司等匿名代號揭露，供應狀況良好；未揭露是否為上市櫃公司。
  • 伯特光電股份有限公司 6859 台灣上櫃光學鏡頭模具及零組件廠，屬光學鏡片模具與金屬零組件上游/周邊供應鏈；未確認為玉晶光直接供應商，列為產業鏈關係企業。
  • 光學玻璃、光學塑膠、鍍膜材料、真空/研磨/檢測設備供應商 年報說明光學產業上游包含光學玻璃、光學塑膠、鍍膜材料、鍍膜設備、真空設備、研磨材料與模具製造業；多數具體公司未揭露。
Downstream
  • 匿名終端品牌/模組客戶A、B、C 年報揭露主要銷貨客戶以匿名代號列示；2024年前二大客戶分別占銷貨淨額約32.36%與31.15%，顯示主要客戶集中，但正式文件未揭露真名。
  • Apple Inc. 美國上市公司；中央社與市場報導指出玉晶光主攻蘋果iPhone鏡頭供應，屬推估/媒體揭露的主要終端客戶，非公司年報直接揭露。
  • 智慧型手機、AR/VR、AI智慧眼鏡、車載、醫療、工業AI與機器人應用廠商 公司產品下游應用包含手機、筆電、傳統/數位相機、AR/VR、車載、醫療、工業AI鏡頭、人形機器人鏡頭與光通訊；具體客戶多未揭露。

Competitors

Sources（10）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.