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3450

聯鈞 Semiconductor As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

steady quality, premium valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 聯鈞 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 12Quality 63Growth 84Momentum 92Chips 10

Is 聯鈞 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 69th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 2.3%.

  • Valuation is high.PE is in the 94th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 94th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -5.4% of volume (net sell).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 49.9%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.47
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 美商高盛 holds 5,863 lots
  • sellers have 11,488 lots left, ~545 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +110% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 美商高盛 has accumulated 5,863 lots since the start (sold 19%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 台灣摩根士丹利 peaked at 6,933 lots, has sold 38%, 4,301 left, ~269 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +16.72pp, mid holders +13, retail -19.09pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -972 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
美商高盛凱基-信義國泰證券群益金鼎花旗環球中國信託
Distributing
台灣摩根士丹利凱基-台北新加坡商瑞銀摩根大通美林富邦證券
Desks
own scale
元富台新-台北統一永豐金證券
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 美商高盛 +5,863
    sold 19%· still adding
  • 凱基-信義 +3,224
    sold 3%· still adding
  • 國泰證券 +3,130
    sold 3%· still adding
  • 群益金鼎 +1,569
    sold 18%
  • 花旗環球 +1,200
    sold 4%
  • 中國信託 +1,165
    sold 0%· still adding

Distributing

  • 台灣摩根士丹利 4,301 left
    sold 38%· ~269 sessions to clear
  • 凱基-台北 3,442 left
    sold 48%· paused recently
  • 新加坡商瑞銀 575 left
    sold 86%· ~3 sessions to clear
  • 摩根大通 1,127 left
    sold 70%· ~9 sessions to clear
  • 美林 2,398 left
    sold 26%· ~545 sessions to clear
  • 富邦證券 1,304 left
    sold 58%· ~12 sessions to clear

Desks

  • 元富 -918
    unclassified
  • 台新-台北 -724
    unclassified
  • 統一 -710
    unclassified
  • 永豐金證券 -666
    unclassified
Still selling 11,488 lots ~545 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +2,884 absorbed / -5,715 sold sellers slightly ahead
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 49.91%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

83 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 61.8%, Sample 76, Median +4.95%, Excess +4.15%, Beat mkt rate 57.9%；60-day: Win 68%, Sample 75, Median +7.35%, Excess +9.86%, Beat mkt rate 56%；120-day: Win 62.7%, Sample 75, Median +9.22%, Excess +18.09%, Beat mkt rate 57.3%

120 days after: historical avg +21.95%

20-day +4.96%
60-day +12.1%
120-day +21.95%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
61.8%
68%
62.7%
Sample
76
75
75
Median
+4.95%
+7.35%
+9.22%
Excess
+4.15%
+9.86%
+18.09%
Beat mkt rate
57.9%
56%
57.3%

Over 75 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 21.95%, beat the market by 18.09 pts; win rate 62.7%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 336+35.6% +30.2% 97.3% +23.8%
20-40 414+23.1% +22.8% 80.7% +12.2%
40-60 512+21.8% +9.1% 65.8% +8.8%
60-80 624+30% -1.4% 48.4% +17.8%
80-100 You are here1039+75% +0.6% 50.3% +48%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 152.98, at the 94.1th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
+27.6%
Win rate 84% Excess +23.3%
306d
+2.3%
Win rate 42.8% Excess -2.3%
505d
Now
+36.4%
Win rate 51.4% Excess +23.4%
930d
60-day momentum down
+22.3%
Win rate 89.4% Excess +15.3%
301d
+5.7%
Win rate 53.7% Excess +0.4%
393d
+7.3%
Win rate 47.5% Excess -4.4%
610d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 930 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 36.4%, win rate 51.4%, beat the market by 23.4%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

36 times historically; 60-day forward avg +11.32%, win rate 47.1%, beating the market by +9.44 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

51 times historically; 60-day forward avg +7.59%, win rate 59.2%, beating the market by +5.32 pts on average.

What does 聯鈞 do? Company profile

半導體業；光通訊、雷射二極體封裝測試、功率半導體封裝測試、矽光子與高速光模組 台灣證券交易所上市

Overview

聯鈞光電股份有限公司成立於2000年9月27日，總部位於新北市中和區橋安街35號10樓，股票於2006年4月12日掛牌上市。董事長為鄭祝良，總經理為宋天增，發言人為陳士恩。公司實收資本額約新台幣14.568億元，已發行普通股145,681,382股。2024年年報揭露，含子公司之員工人數為2024年底2,541人、2025年第1季2,624人。2025年3月30日主要股東包含鄭祝良持股5.94%、周凱彬1.64%、陳泰君1.45%，其餘前十大多為外資託管或基金專戶；前十大合計14.58%。公司持有GEM Services, Inc. 51.00%，並對源傑科技持股54.56%；年報亦揭露鄭祝良兼任捷敏股份有限公司、源傑科技等公司董事長。2024年合併營收新台幣75.67661億元，歸屬母公司業主淨利5.56426億元，EPS 3.82元，每股淨值30.4元；2024年度盈餘分配案擬配發現金股利每股0.5元。2025年全年合併營收依月營收資料約85.84594億元，年增13.44%；2025年前三季公司法說/媒體資料顯示累計營收64.62億元、EPS 3.48元。

Business

聯鈞是高精密光電與半導體封測代工廠，主要業務為光資訊產品、光通訊產品、功率半導體封裝及測試，以及高速傳輸光模組含矽光子產品。2024年營收結構為：光資訊及光通訊產品8.74182億元、占12%；功率半導體封裝及測試46.70539億元、占62%；高速傳輸光模組含矽光子產品20.22940億元、占26%。2025年部分券商資料揭露營收比重約為半導體產品62.04%、矽光子21.10%、光資訊及光通訊產品16.86%。銷售地區方面，2024年內銷30.46884億元占40%，亞洲外銷18.86111億元占25%，歐美洲外銷22.77608億元占35%，其他0.20793億元。公司商業模式以客戶共同設計、製程開發、量產封裝測試與模組組裝為主，產品應用包括3D感測、AR/VR、汽車雷射頭燈、雷射投影、工業高功率雷射、FTTH、Telecom、Datacom、CATV、資料中心、AI運算、5G通訊、HPC、車用LiDAR，以及AC/DC、DC/DC電源轉換與工業/車用功率半導體。年報稱聯鈞為全球前三大雷射二極體封裝測試代工廠之一，主要客戶多為光通訊及光資訊產業界領導公司；但因保密，年報僅以AAAA公司、AAO公司等匿名揭露，2024年AAAA公司占銷貨26%、AAO公司占10%。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025至2028年展望核心在AI資料中心高速傳輸升級、雷射封裝需求、AOC光模組、矽光子與CPO趨勢。公司2025年營運計畫明確指出，將依數據中心與AI市場變化調整產品研發與行銷，持續研發新產品並擴展生產規模，以維持光資訊/光通訊雷射封裝及電源管理元件代工優勢；短期開發項目包括高精度/高功率COC/COS、50GPON元件、GaN on Silicon磊晶片、Silicon base主動耦合、800G LPO可插拔光學傳感器、Silicon Photonics高速光模組與異質結合封裝。2025年上半年受惠AI光通訊與雷射封裝需求，營收與毛利率改善；但第二、三季光模組主要客戶庫存調節、匯率波動與稼動率下降影響獲利。2025年底公司法說訊息指出，主要客戶庫存調整接近尾聲，10月營收回升，2026年雷射封裝與光模組雙引擎可望較2025年改善。2026年觀察重點為400G穩定出貨、800G AOC/800G單模組量產放量、COS/EML封裝產能與良率、源傑科技光模組貢獻、客戶認證進度與急單/短交期物料備貨。2027至2028年，市場主軸將由800G逐步轉向1.6T、CPO與矽光子整合；聯鈞若能延續高階主動式接合、外部光源、矽光子高速模組與異質整合封裝能力，將受惠AI/HPC資料中心頻寬升級與光進銅退趨勢。主要風險包括：客戶集中且名稱不透明、光模組客戶庫存循環、800G/1.6T認證或放量延遲、東南亞光通訊聚落與中國低價競爭、產品降價壓力、工程人才短缺、功率半導體封測資本支出與原料成本上升、匯率波動、AI資本支出循環反轉，以及矽光子/CPO技術路線變化。2027至2028具體營收或獲利數字未見公司正式財測，任何成長幅度只能視為法人或市場推估。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 未揭露之客戶供應晶粒 年報揭露光資訊及光通訊產品主要原料之一為晶粒，供應廠商為各客戶，供應狀況良好；客戶名稱因保密未公開。
  • T公司、S公司、H公司、G公司、P公司、N公司等匿名供應商 年報揭露金線、基座、金屬上蓋等供應商以代號呈現，未揭露實名，供應狀況良好。
  • AO公司、AP公司、AA公司等匿名進貨供應商 2024年年報揭露AO公司與AP公司各占進貨13%，AA公司占進貨7%；名稱匿名，與發行人關係為無。
  • 聯亞光電 3081 年報列為國內主要雷射產業供應商之一；聯亞屬台股上櫃光通訊/雷射元件相關公司，與聯鈞可能處於上游元件供應、同業競合或客戶共同開發生態，未確認為聯鈞直接供應商。
  • Broadcom 年報列為國外主要雷射產業供應商之一；美國上市公司，可能為光通訊元件/晶片生態上游或競合方，未確認為聯鈞直接供應商。
  • Lumentum 年報列為國外主要雷射產業供應商之一；美國上市光學元件公司，亦是EML等高階光通訊元件重要廠商，未確認為聯鈞直接供應商或客戶。
  • Coherent 年報列為國外主要雷射產業供應商之一；美國上市光學與材料公司，未確認為聯鈞直接供應商或客戶。
Downstream
  • AAAA公司 年報匿名揭露之2024年最大客戶，銷貨金額新台幣19.87771億元，占全年銷貨26%，與發行人關係為無；實名未公開。
  • AAO公司 年報匿名揭露之2024年第二大客戶，銷貨金額新台幣7.77722億元，占全年銷貨10%，與發行人關係為無；實名未公開。
  • 光通訊及光資訊產業界領導公司 年報表示主要客戶多為光通訊及光資訊產業界領導公司，採共同設計、共同開發與量產代工模式；未揭露具體公司。
  • 資料中心、AI/HPC、5G、FTTH、CATV與車用LiDAR客戶 終端應用客群；聯鈞產品用於高速資料中心光互連、電信/資料通訊、光纖到戶、有線電視光纖傳輸、車用LiDAR與工業/車用電源管理。
  • 源傑科技 聯鈞持股過半之子公司，負責高速光模組/AOC與矽光子相關布局；未上市櫃，屬集團內下游模組化與產品平台。

Competitors

  • 眾達-KY 4977 台股上市光通訊/光收發模組相關公司，與聯鈞在光通訊模組、資料中心高速傳輸供應鏈有競合。
  • 華星光 4979 台股上櫃光通訊元件/模組公司；年報列為國內主要雷射產業供應商之一。
  • 光環 3234 台股上櫃光通訊元件公司；年報列為國內主要雷射產業供應商之一。
  • 聯亞光電 3081 台股上櫃光通訊雷射/磊晶相關公司；與聯鈞在雷射二極體與光通訊元件產業鏈上有競合。
  • 光聖 6442 台股上市光通訊與資料中心高速傳輸相關公司，市場常將其列為AI光通訊/矽光子概念同業。
  • 上詮 3363 台股上櫃光通訊元件與光纖連接相關公司，屬AI資料中心光通訊供應鏈同業。
  • 訊芯-KY 6451 台股上市封裝測試與光通訊/矽光子封裝相關公司，與聯鈞在先進封裝及光電整合題材有競合。
  • 日月光投控 3711 台股上市全球封測龍頭；與聯鈞在半導體封測大類別及部分功率半導體封測資源上可能競爭，但聯鈞較專注雷射二極體與功率元件。
  • Fabrinet 美國上市光通訊製造服務公司，年報列為國外主要雷射產業供應商之一，屬國際光通訊製造競爭者。
  • Lumentum 美國上市光學元件公司，具EML/VCSEL等光通訊元件能力，與聯鈞可能同時存在供應鏈合作與競爭關係。
  • Coherent 美國上市光學材料與元件公司，年報列為國外主要雷射產業供應商之一，屬國際高階光通訊與雷射元件競爭者。
  • 中際旭創 中國上市光模組大廠，年報列為國外主要雷射產業供應商之一；非台股掛牌。
Sources（13）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.