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4989

榮科 Electronic Components As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

quality needs a look, premium valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 榮科 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 10Quality 37Growth 76Momentum 79Chips 31

Is 榮科 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Weak profitability.Operating margin is in the 31th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 1.2%.

  • Valuation is high.PE is in the 91th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 81th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -1.0% of volume (net sell).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 33.9%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bearish -0.65
BearishNeutralBullish

Distribution to retail — bearish

  • Distribution to retail — bearish
  • 國泰-敦南 holds 1,923 lots
  • sellers have 3,143 lots left, ~179 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +28% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 國泰-敦南 has accumulated 1,923 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 美林 peaked at 1,925 lots, has sold 83%, 324 left, paused recently.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -34.80pp, mid holders -2, retail +31.92pp — drifting down to retail.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -3,253 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
國泰-敦南富邦-建國元富-桃園口袋證券玉山-高雄元大-雙和
Distributing
美林統一台新證券國泰證券永豐金證券新光
Desks
own scale
群益金鼎-館前凱基-永和元大證券新加坡商瑞銀
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 國泰-敦南 +1,923
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 富邦-建國 +1,831
    sold 18%· still adding
  • 元富-桃園 +624
    sold 0%
  • 口袋證券 +598
    sold 21%
  • 玉山-高雄 +508
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 元大-雙和 +437
    sold 0%

Distributing

  • 美林 324 left
    sold 83%· paused recently
  • 統一 429 left
    sold 76%· ~179 sessions to clear
  • 台新證券 379 left
    sold 70%· paused recently
  • 國泰證券 318 left
    sold 69%· paused recently
  • 永豐金證券 544 left
    sold 43%· ~37 sessions to clear
  • 新光 636 left
    sold 31%· paused recently

Desks

  • 群益金鼎-館前 -33,552
    unclassified
  • 凱基-永和 -1,600
    unclassified
  • 元大證券 -1,585
    unclassified
  • 新加坡商瑞銀 -1,232
    hedge desk · will cover
Still selling 3,143 lots ~179 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +1,664 absorbed / -2,186 sold sellers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -2,910 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Weak direction: big-holder share fell while retail share rose.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 33.87%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

37 historical occurrences (since 2018-06-28)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 34.8%, Sample 23, Median -5.72%, Excess +1.22%, Beat mkt rate 30.4%；60-day: Win 38.1%, Sample 21, Median -5.59%, Excess +3.72%, Beat mkt rate 33.3%；120-day: Win 22.2%, Sample 18, Median -10.8%, Excess -8.74%, Beat mkt rate 22.2%

120 days after: historical avg -4.05%

20-day +3.4%
60-day +10.51%
120-day -4.05%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
34.8%
38.1%
22.2%
Sample
23
21
18
Median
-5.72%
-5.59%
-10.8%
Excess
+1.22%
+3.72%
-8.74%
Beat mkt rate
30.4%
33.3%
22.2%

Over 18 occurrences, 120-day forward avg declined 4.05%, lagged the market by 8.74 pts; win rate 22.2%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 93-8.8% -16.7% 32.3% -16.8%
20-40 78-35.4% -35.3% 0% -23.3%
40-60 14Insufficient data
60-80 0Insufficient data
80-100 You are here0Insufficient data

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 73.33, at the 80.6th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
-2.8%
Win rate 60.9% Excess -11.7%
64d
Insufficient data
(2d)
Now
Insufficient data
(0d)
60-day momentum down
-13.3%
Win rate 35.1% Excess -11.1%
225d
Insufficient data
(14d)
Insufficient data
(0d)

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

11 times historically; 60-day forward avg +27.84%, win rate 70%, beating the market by +19.31 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

30 times historically; 60-day forward avg +3.66%, win rate 33.3%, beating the market by +0.79 pts on average.

What does 榮科 do? Company profile

電子零組件業；電解銅箔、PCB/CCL上游材料 臺灣證券交易所上市

Overview

4989 對應證券為榮科，發行公司為李長榮科技股份有限公司，屬臺灣證券交易所上市普通股，非 ETF、ETN、權證或特別股。公司成立於1997年1月16日，總部/公司地址為台北市松山區八德路四段83號5樓，主要生產工廠位於高雄小港中林路3-1號。股票於2017年6月26日登錄興櫃、2018年6月28日上市。董事長為陳銘樹，總經理/發言人為劉家和。主要業務為電解銅箔之設計、製造及銷售。2025年股東會年報及法說資料揭露實收資本額為新台幣1,377,765仟元、已發行普通股137,776,500股；2024年底員工190人、2025年3月31日員工204人。主要股東方面，2025年4月22日年報列示李長榮化學工業持股85,339,392股、61.94%，華南商銀受託保管李謀偉信託財產專戶3.39%，中信銀受託保管員工福利儲蓄信託1.23%，李長榮實業0.80%；但2026年3月重大訊息顯示李長榮化學工業已連續處分榮科股權，於2026年3月16日後累積持有13,635,807股、持股比率9.9%，因此最新股權結構需以2026年股東名簿及公開資訊觀測站為準。另金管會2026年1月公告榮科申報現金增資發行普通股35,000,000股，後續新聞顯示募集期間展延至2026年10月21日，故截至本研究日資本額是否已完成變更仍需查最新登記。

Business

榮科是台系少數純電解銅箔供應商，產品定位在 PCB 與銅箔基板（CCL）上游關鍵材料。2024年營收結構為電解銅箔100%，合併營收2,993,614仟元，較2023年的3,557,969仟元下滑；產品依年報可分為鋰電池銅箔與電子電路銅箔，其中電子電路銅箔應用於不同厚度與技術規格之印刷電路板，鋰電池銅箔可作為負極集流體。公司量產/供應產品包括4oz、3oz、2oz、1oz、1/2oz、1/3oz、9um銅箔，並開發7um超薄銅箔、VLP、RTF、2RT等低粗糙度與反轉銅箔；年報列示當前產品包括PK-HTE-LP3、PK-HTE-RTF、BR-HTE-2RT、BR-DSS-LLX、BR-DSS-2LX等，規劃開發8um超薄銅箔、次世代Rz小於1.5um反轉銅箔及高頻用低粗糙度銅箔。技術路線以高純度銅原料、潔淨室主製程、多道過濾電解液、DCS製程控制與客製化研發為特色。產品厚度結構方面，年報揭露1oz、2oz銅箔約占營收37%與18%，1/3oz與1/2oz分別約占18%與20%，並供應全球主要銅箔基板與PCB廠。商業模式為採購銅線等原料，經電解、表面處理、裁切與品質認證後銷售給PCB與CCL廠商；2024年主要客戶以匿名Client C、Client A、Client B揭露，分別約占銷售27.32%、13.67%、13.56%，其他客戶45.45%。第三方產業資料指出客戶包含健鼎、華通、敬鵬、聯茂、KCE等PCB/CCL廠商；公司年報則僅匿名揭露，故個別客戶名單應視為市場資料與產業推估。2024年銷售地區第三方資料顯示外銷約90%、內銷約10%。終端應用涵蓋AI伺服器、高速交換器、5G/通訊設備、汽車電子、ADAS、電動車、智慧手機、高階網通、資料中心、軟板與一般消費電子。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025至2028年榮科的核心成長動能在於高階電子電路銅箔升級，而非標準銅箔擴量。需求端，AI伺服器、高速運算、800G/1.6T交換器、低損耗高速板材、5G/6G通訊、車用電子與電動車電控系統，均推升高頻高速、低介電損耗、細線路與低粗糙度銅箔需求。公司2025年法說資料顯示2024年特用高階細線路銅箔2RT完成認證、2025年HVLP高階認證，產品開發方向包括極低粗糙度反轉銅箔、8um超薄銅箔、低粗糙度雙面亮銅箔，目標提高高附加價值產品營收占比。產業面，年報指出AI、5G、電動車帶動高階CCL需求，高階電子電路銅箔供給相對緊；同時台灣廠商在中高階CCL與銅箔技術上持續追趕日系廠。若HVLP/2RT等產品持續通過客戶驗證並導入量產，2026至2028年有機會改善產品組合與毛利率。風險包括：中國大陸與東南亞銅箔新增產能造成中低階產品價格競爭；日系三井金屬、福田金屬、古河電工等在高階超薄、高頻高速與特殊表面處理仍具技術領先；國際銅價與匯率波動、銅線採購成本、電價上漲（年報稱電力成本約占成本近10%）壓縮利潤；主要客戶集中度仍高，2024年前三大匿名客戶合計約54.55%；母公司2025下半年至2026年持續處分持股可能造成籌碼壓力；現金增資若完成將稀釋股本但可補充營運資金。公司2024年仍虧損，2025至2028年的關鍵觀察指標為高階銅箔認證轉量產速度、AI伺服器/高速網通客戶出貨、標準品退出或降比、原料銅價與加工費傳導能力、現增進度及大股東持股變化。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 銅線回收商與銅線製造商 年報揭露電解銅箔主要原料為銅線，來源為多家國內外銅線回收商及銅線製造商；供應商多以Company A、Company B、Company E匿名揭露，未能確認是否為台股掛牌公司。
  • 台灣銅業股份有限公司（Formosa Copper） 2024年主要供應商之一，年報揭露採購占比20.49%，供應銅線；公司官網定位為高純度無氧銅線生產商，未查得台股上市櫃代號。
  • 李長榮化學工業股份有限公司 非原料供應商，為關係企業與曾為主要股東；年報揭露與其有高雄土地租賃契約，母公司已私有化下市，故stock_id填null。
  • 電解銅板、銅線、鈦鼓與後處理設備供應鏈 電解銅箔需高純度銅原料、電解設備、鈦鼓、後處理機與潔淨/過濾系統；個別設備供應商未於公開年報中明確揭露。
Downstream
  • 健鼎科技股份有限公司 3044 PCB廠；第三方產業資料列為榮科產品出貨客戶之一，年報僅匿名揭露主要客戶，因此個別對應需以公司確認為準。
  • 華通電腦股份有限公司 2313 PCB廠；鉅亨網曾報導華通為李長榮科技客戶之一且曾投資持股，第三方資料亦列為客戶。
  • 敬鵬工業股份有限公司 2355 PCB/汽車板廠；第三方產業資料列為榮科客戶之一，對應年報匿名客戶需保留不確定性。
  • 聯茂電子股份有限公司 6213 銅箔基板（CCL）廠；第三方產業資料列為榮科客戶之一，下游應用包括高頻高速板材與AI伺服器材料。
  • KCE Electronics Public Company Limited 泰國上市PCB廠，第三方資料列為榮科客戶之一；非台股掛牌，stock_id填null。
  • PCB與CCL廠商 公司官方產品頁與年報均表示產品供應印刷電路板業與銅箔基板業，2024年前三大客戶以Client C、Client A、Client B匿名揭露，合計約54.55%。

Competitors

  • 南亞塑膠工業股份有限公司 1303 台灣上市公司，為台灣電解銅箔/電子材料供應商之一，年報列為台灣銅箔廠商；亦被產業新聞列為高階銅箔受惠廠商。
  • 金居開發股份有限公司 8358 台股上櫃銅箔廠，與榮科同屬台系電解銅箔供應商，市場常以AI伺服器高階銅箔題材比較。
  • 長春石油化學股份有限公司 台灣未上市集團，年報列為台灣主要銅箔廠商之一，非台股掛牌。
  • 台灣銅箔股份有限公司（三井銅箔） 日本三井金屬在台相關銅箔企業，未查得台股掛牌代號；屬高階電解銅箔競爭者。
  • Mitsui Mining & Smelting / Mitsui Kinzoku（三井金屬） 日本上市公司，年報列為日本電解銅箔廠商；非台股掛牌。
  • Fukuda Metal Foil & Powder（福田金屬箔粉工業） 日本銅箔廠，第三方資料列為電解銅箔競爭對手；非台股掛牌。
  • Furukawa Electric（古河電氣工業） 日本上市公司，年報列為日本銅箔相關競爭廠商；非台股掛牌。
  • Kingboard Holdings / Kingboard Chemicals（建滔系） 香港上市/中國系CCL與銅箔相關集團，年報列為中國銅箔競爭廠商；非台股掛牌。
  • Nord Group（諾德股份） 中國A股銅箔廠商，年報列為中國銅箔競爭廠商；非台股掛牌。
Sources（12）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.