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Help me set up FinLab and analyze 5604 中連. Please read: https://finlab.finance/en/setup?stock=5604
5604
strong quality, fair valuation, no active signal today.
Is 中連 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first
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Top-tier profitability.Operating margin beats ~100% of the market. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 1.7%.
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Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 64th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 69th percentile.
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Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 1.9% of volume (net buy).
Chip flow
Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -17% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12
- Largest holder 統一-台中 has accumulated 132 lots since the start (sold 1%), still adding.
- Main distributor 統一-土城 peaked at 34 lots, has sold 29%, 24 left, ~60 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
- TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +0.87pp, mid holders +0, retail -0.13pp — concentration shifting upward.
- Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -9 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Accumulating
- 統一-台中 +132
- 台新-台中 +83
- 永豐金-台中 +64
- 華南永昌-南京 +47
- 合庫-嘉義 +43
- 國泰-台中 +33
Distributing
- 統一-土城 24 left
- 凱基-台北 6 left
- 元大-復北 10 left
- 合庫-台中 7 left
- 中國信託 7 left
- 大昌-新店 9 left
Desks
- 凱基-內湖 -121
- 玉山-高雄 -100
- 元富-信義 -64
- 群益金鼎-台中 -63
Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.
Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.
Historical evidence
Valuation regime and subsequent returns
Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.
| PE percentile band | Sample days | 240-day avg return | Median | Win rate | Avg excess (vs index) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20 | 781 | +29.6% | +27.3% | 62.1% | +12.8% |
| 20-40 | 275 | -2.6% | -12.9% | 22.5% | -29.5% |
| 40-60 | 110 | -5.3% | -6.2% | 15.5% | -39.6% |
| 60-80 You are here | 185 | +2.8% | +1.1% | 59.5% | -8.6% |
| 80-100 | 1614 | +10% | +3.4% | 56.9% | -3.9% |
Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.
Current PE ≈ 32.84, at the 69.4th percentile of its own history (60-80 band).
Valuation × momentum historical grid
Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.
Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum down”: across 751 historical days, 120-day forward avg declined 0.6%, win rate 42.9%, lagged the market by 8.6%.
Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.
Signals not active (historical stats for reference)
These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.
252-day price high (breakout)
PendingAdjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.
31 times historically; 60-day forward avg +8.34%, win rate 64.5%, beating the market by +4.14 pts on average.
Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)
PendingMonthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).
21 times historically; 60-day forward avg +11.57%, win rate 73.7%, beating the market by +7.64 pts on average.
Foreign net buying for 5 straight days
PendingForeign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.
13 times historically; 60-day forward avg +4.37%, win rate 46.2%, beating the market by +0.02 pts on average.
What does 中連 do? Company profile
Overview
5604 對應中連誠企業股份有限公司，股票簡稱中連，為櫃買中心掛牌之普通股。公司成立於1954年8月9日，前身為中連汽車貨運股份有限公司，2021年更名為中連誠企業股份有限公司；股票於1997年5月22日上櫃。總部位於台中市西屯區工業區一路7號。董事長為蘇南州，總經理為江瑞萌，發言人為侯冠朱。實收資本額為新台幣1,087,829,680元，已發行普通股108,782,968股。公司網站為http://www.cltc.com.tw。2025年度年報摘要資料顯示公司組織精簡，115年度營運計畫提及全體人員為10人。股務代理為亞東證券。主要股東完整前十大名單未能在可公開擷取頁面完整確認；可查董監經理人持股資料顯示，董事陳志宏約持有6,250張、富陽事業股份有限公司代表人陳志真約持有2,323張、董事長蘇南州約持有855張，Yahoo股市資料顯示董監持股比例約8.68%。
Business
公司原本從事路線貨運與貨物運輸配送，因勞工與環保法規趨嚴、運價調整受限、人力聘僱不易與貨運市場競爭激烈，2019年4月董事會決議退出貨運業，2019年7月正式停止貨運業務，轉型為不動產租賃與出售。現階段主要業務為工業用不動產租賃，兼具資產活化出售。MoneyDJ依公司2024年年報整理之資料顯示，2024年營收比重為工業用不動產租賃100%；公司不動產分散於全台各地，每宗土地約650餘坪至5,600餘坪。2024年底自有土地約40,384坪，出租土地31,587坪，出租率約78%。2025年度年報摘要資料顯示，2025年出租土地31,123坪、出租率約77%，合併營收新台幣159,396千元，營業毛利130,611千元、毛利率約82%，營業利益108,206千元、營業利益率約68%，本期淨利92,220千元、每股盈餘0.85元；2025年淨利較2024年下滑主要因2024年有處分大甲不動產利益，而2025年無同類處分資產挹注。商業模式為持有工業用土地及相關不動產，透過長期租約取得穩定租金；若未找到長期租戶，則採短期租賃、委託停車場經營或等待出售活化。主要客戶為物流、倉儲、製造業及需合法工業用地之企業承租戶；已公開具名者包括新竹物流，其2019年與中連簽合作備忘錄並承租多處不動產。
Outlook 2025–2028
2025至2028年的核心展望取決於工業用不動產出租率、租金水準、土地活化處分，以及台灣製造業與物流倉儲需求。2025年公司維持約77%出租率，營收約1.59億元，營業利益率仍高，但因少了2024年大甲不動產處分利益，稅後淨利大幅回落，顯示常態獲利主要來自租金，資產處分則會造成年度獲利波動。2026年公司營運計畫預期出租土地約30,000餘坪，約占土地總面積76%，策略包括優先鎖定財務穩健且信譽良好之長期承租方、以短期租賃或停車場委託經營提高空置資產利用率、視地價與市場狀況出售低回報土地，並持續關注土地政策。產業面，AI伺服器、高階晶片、半導體與智慧製造供應鏈仍可支撐部分高科技及支援型產業對工業空間、倉儲與合法工業用地的需求；政府強化土地使用合規性，也可能促使部分原位於非工業用地或法規風險較高地點的業者轉向合法工業區。不過傳統製造業投資保守、企業海外設廠、全球關稅政策、地緣政治、能源與運輸成本、利率與不動產投資資金環境，均可能壓抑中長期擴廠與承租需求。2027至2028年因公司尚未公開具體擴產或新案開發計畫，較合理的基本情境是以既有4萬餘坪土地資產管理、出租率維持與擇機處分為主；若台灣AI與半導體供應鏈留台投資延續，出租率與租金有機會維持穩健，反之若產能外移或傳產需求疲弱，空置率與議價壓力可能上升。
Supply Chain
- 新竹物流股份有限公司 未上市公司。2019年與中連簽訂合作備忘錄，內容包含客戶移轉、人員轉任及不動產租賃；後續依公告簽訂三重、新店、新竹、台中、彰化、南投、斗南、嘉義、安平等9處不動產出租合約，總出租面積約20,500坪，為公開具名的重要承租與轉型合作對象。
Competitors
Sources（13）
This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.
Method and limitations
- All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
- Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
- Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
- Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
- Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.
This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.