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6209

今國光 Optoelectronics As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

steady quality, fair valuation.

2 active signals
252d high Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 今國光 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 22Quality 78Growth 88Momentum 93Chips 32

Is 今國光 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 76th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 4.4%.

  • Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 78th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 58th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -0.9% of volume (net sell).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 70.7%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as 252-day price high, Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Neutral +0.14
BearishNeutralBullish

Institutional rotation, concentration steady — neutral

  • Institutional rotation, concentration steady — neutral
  • 港商野村 holds 2,270 lots
  • sellers have 1,340 lots left, ~89 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +59% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 港商野村 has accumulated 2,270 lots since the start (sold 13%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 台新 peaked at 2,663 lots, has sold 45%, 1,455 left, paused recently.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +0.80pp, mid holders -7, retail +2.20pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -6,892 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
港商野村國泰-敦南統一-員林台新-屏新兆豐-大安合庫證券
Distributing
台新統一摩根大通康和國泰證券國票-敦北法人
Desks
own scale
美林凱基-台北新加坡商瑞銀永豐金證券
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 港商野村 +2,270
    sold 13%· still adding
  • 國泰-敦南 +1,411
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 統一-員林 +952
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 台新-屏新 +846
    sold 21%· still adding
  • 兆豐-大安 +543
    sold 22%· still adding
  • 合庫證券 +499
    sold 0%

Distributing

  • 台新 1,455 left
    sold 45%· paused recently
  • 統一 969 left
    sold 47%· paused recently
  • 摩根大通 438 left
    sold 70%· ~89 sessions to clear
  • 康和 268 left
    sold 76%· paused recently
  • 國泰證券 409 left
    sold 60%· paused recently
  • 國票-敦北法人 118 left
    sold 86%· paused recently

Desks

  • 美林 -2,210
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 凱基-台北 -1,995
    day-trade · selling pressure
  • 新加坡商瑞銀 -1,497
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 永豐金證券 -1,368
    unclassified
Still selling 1,340 lots ~89 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +5,044 absorbed / -1,293 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -4,781 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Mixed direction: big-holder and retail changes are not aligned.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

252-day price high (breakout)

Active

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

20 historical occurrences (since 2010-01-04)
Average forward return after 252-day price high (breakout)。20-day: Win 55%, Sample 20, Median +2.28%, Excess +2.89%, Beat mkt rate 55%；60-day: Win 52.6%, Sample 19, Median +7.39%, Excess +2.83%, Beat mkt rate 47.4%；120-day: Win 66.7%, Sample 18, Median +11.11%, Excess +1.89%, Beat mkt rate 61.1%

120 days after: historical avg +14.69%

20-day +5.01%
60-day +9.32%
120-day +14.69%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
55%
52.6%
66.7%
Sample
20
19
18
Median
+2.28%
+7.39%
+11.11%
Excess
+2.89%
+2.83%
+1.89%
Beat mkt rate
55%
47.4%
61.1%

Over 18 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 14.69%, beat the market by 1.89 pts; win rate 66.7%.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 70.65%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

58 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 57.4%, Sample 54, Median +2.17%, Excess +2.51%, Beat mkt rate 55.6%；60-day: Win 42.3%, Sample 52, Median -7.03%, Excess +1.32%, Beat mkt rate 36.5%；120-day: Win 48%, Sample 50, Median -0.82%, Excess +4.74%, Beat mkt rate 40%

120 days after: historical avg +13.49%

20-day +3.31%
60-day +5.2%
120-day +13.49%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
57.4%
42.3%
48%
Sample
54
52
50
Median
+2.17%
-7.03%
-0.82%
Excess
+2.51%
+1.32%
+4.74%
Beat mkt rate
55.6%
36.5%
40%

Over 50 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 13.49%, beat the market by 4.74 pts; win rate 48%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 0Insufficient data
20-40 0Insufficient data
40-60 You are here46+2.2% +0.4% 54.3% -31.8%
60-80 16Insufficient data
80-100 486+33% +9.7% 70.6% -69%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 55.32, at the 58.2th percentile of its own history (40-60 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
Insufficient data
(0d)
Now
Insufficient data
(6d)
+9.6%
Win rate 40.2% Excess -36%
281d
60-day momentum down
Insufficient data
(0d)
-2.4%
Win rate 12.5% Excess -8.7%
40d
+41.2%
Win rate 71.6% Excess -8.8%
341d

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

67 times historically; 60-day forward avg +2.31%, win rate 44.8%, beating the market by -1.87 pts on average.

What does 今國光 do? Company profile

光電業；光學鏡片、光學鏡頭與光學模組製造 台灣證券交易所上市

Overview

今國光為普通股營運公司，股票代號 6209，市場別為上市。公司於 1980 年 6 月在台中梧棲成立，主要營業項目為相機濾光鏡、相機透鏡、特殊相機及各類光學鏡片、鏡頭之設計、製造、買賣與進出口。公司股票於 2002 年 12 月核准於櫃買中心掛牌，2004 年 11 月核准轉至台灣證券交易所上市。總部位於台中市梧棲區向上路九段 562 巷 91 號。董事長為陳慶棋，總經理為陳義方。實收資本額約新台幣 17.54 億元，已發行普通股約 1.754 億股。員工規模方面，2024 年底合計 1,528 人，2025 年 3 月 31 日合計 1,494 人；2026 年第一季財報列示集團主要子公司包含香港正國、薩摩亞今偉、薩摩亞互商與中國大陸佛山華國光學。主要股東完整名單在公司網站有 PDF，但可讀文字未完整顯示；公開資料顯示董監事及大股東或內部人合計持股約二成上下，個別大股東名稱與比例仍應以公開資訊觀測站及公司股東會年報原始 PDF 為準。

Business

今國光定位為垂直整合光學元件與鏡頭模組廠，具備玻璃鏡片研磨、塑膠鏡片射出、模造玻璃、精密模具加工、光學設計、開發與量產能力，商業模式以 OEM/ODM、客製化鏡頭設計製造、鏡片與鏡頭模組供貨為主。公司產品與應用包含 AR/VR/MR、矽光子與 CPO 相關光學、車載鏡頭與模組、LWIR 遠紅外線熱成像鏡頭、IoT 鏡頭、DSLR/單眼大口徑鏡片、工業相機、望遠鏡、運動相機、球面與非球面玻璃鏡片 OEM、鏡頭 ODM。2024 年媒體引述產品營收占比約為遠紅外線鏡頭 24%、車載鏡頭/鏡片 14%、單眼大口徑鏡片 23%、物聯網鏡頭 24%、其他 15%；2025 年起遠紅外線熱成像鏡頭放量，2025 年 9 月單月營收中紅外線熱成像鏡頭占比已過半，2025 年 1-9 月遠紅外線熱成像鏡頭營收約 13.1 億元、占比約 54% 為媒體/法人估算，非公司逐項正式公告。2025 年合併營收約 36.52 億元，年增約 50.7%；2026 年 1-5 月累計營收約 19.82 億元，年增約 55.9%。公司客戶多以代號或不具名方式揭露；公開媒體指出車載客戶包含 Magna，IoT 曾供應 Amazon Ring 門鈴鏡頭，並有全球無人機大廠、陸系熱成像或無人機客戶、美系電動車與日系車廠共同開發案，但除已公開名稱外，不宜推定最終客戶與訂單規模。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025 至 2028 年核心觀察為產品組合轉向高附加價值遠紅外線熱成像、車載、IoT、AR/VR/MR 與矽光子。2025 年遠紅外線熱成像鏡頭出貨明顯放量，帶動營收成長、毛利率改善與轉盈；產品應用包含車載自動駕駛/夜視或 AEB、無人機、機器人、槍枝瞄準具、溫度感測、醫療監測、電力與安防。公司與媒體資訊顯示 2024-2026 年紅外線熱感應鏡頭目標年複合成長約 30%，並規劃以資本支出擴充產能；2025 年公司於新竹設立研發中心，聚焦 AR/VR/MR 與矽光子，並以 2027 年切入美系 AR 相關客戶訂單為目標。車載方面，既有 Magna 訂單有成長機會，另有自動駕駛、LiDAR、智慧座艙、DMS/OMS、環景與倒車影像相關開發案，車載產品驗證期長但一旦導入可帶來多年期訂單。主要風險包含中國大陸同業低價競爭、消費性電子產品週期縮短、客戶集中與拉貨波動、車載/AR 專案認證時間不確定、匯率與關稅、原物料與稀土/紅外材料出口管制、資本支出後產能利用率不如預期，以及媒體/法人展望未必等同公司保證。2026 年 1-5 月營收仍維持高年增，顯示遠紅外線與利基產品需求延續，但 2027-2028 年實際成長仍取決於車載與 AR/矽光子量產節點。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 聯一光電股份有限公司 3441 公司年報列為主要光學玻璃鏡片相關供應商之一，並在 2026 年第一季財報中列示今國光持有其上櫃普通股且今國光為其法人董事；屬台股上櫃公司。
  • 小原光學／OHARA 公司年報列為光學玻璃材料或鏡片相關主要供應商之一；為日本光學玻璃供應商，非台股掛牌。
  • 佛山華國光學器材有限公司 今國光 100% 間接持有之中國大陸子公司，主要從事光學鏡片製造買賣，亦為遠紅外線熱成像鏡頭生產重心；未上市。
  • 塑膠光學樹脂、鏡筒、金屬環片、濾光片與輔材供應商 年報揭露主要原料包含光學玻璃、半成品、組立零件、鏡筒、金屬環片、濾光片、塑膠材料與輔材，多數供應商名稱以年報可讀文字不完整或非上市櫃公司呈現；此處不推定台股代號。
Downstream
  • Magna International／麥格納 媒體報導今國光供應 Magna 車載鏡頭，以環景、倒車或車用鏡頭相關產品為主；Magna 為加拿大/美國上市汽車零組件 Tier 1，非台股掛牌。
  • Amazon Ring 媒體報導 Amazon Ring 智慧門鈴鏡頭使用今國光產品；Amazon 為美國上市公司，非台股掛牌，具體供貨占比需以公司正式揭露為準。
  • 全球無人機大廠 公司與媒體資訊顯示遠紅外線熱成像鏡頭已取得全球無人機大廠認證並開始貢獻或準備貢獻營收；客戶未具名，未上市櫃資訊不明。
  • 陸系熱成像／無人機客戶 媒體報導今國光透過佛山華國光學接獲陸系大廠訂單並開始出貨；客戶未具名，非台股掛牌或無法確認。
  • 車載自動駕駛、機器人、溫度感測、醫療、電力與安防應用客戶 遠紅外線、車載與 IoT 鏡頭終端應用族群；多數客戶以代號或不具名方式揭露，無法確認個別上市櫃代號。

Competitors

Sources（19）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.