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6449

鈺邦 Electronic Components As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

strong quality, fair valuation.

1 active signal
252d high
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 鈺邦 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 22Quality 77Growth 54Momentum 98Chips 16

Is 鈺邦 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Top-tier profitability.Operating margin beats ~82% of the market. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 3.4%.

  • Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 79th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 100th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -3.2% of volume (net sell).

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as 252-day price high are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.53
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 美商高盛 holds 1,218 lots
  • sellers have 2,904 lots left, ~127 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +131% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 美商高盛 has accumulated 1,218 lots since the start (sold 20%), now trimming.
  • Main distributor 國泰證券 peaked at 1,826 lots, has sold 46%, 984 left, ~29 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +0.10pp, mid holders +10, retail -5.57pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -238 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
美商高盛新加坡商瑞銀凱基-松山富邦-仁愛華南永昌永豐金證券
Distributing
國泰證券台灣摩根士丹利凱基-城中凱基-信義美林摩根大通
Desks
own scale
台新群益金鼎富邦-南京國票-北高雄
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 美商高盛 +1,218
    sold 20%
  • 新加坡商瑞銀 +1,090
    sold 16%
  • 凱基-松山 +566
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 富邦-仁愛 +337
    sold 13%
  • 華南永昌 +311
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 永豐金證券 +291
    sold 4%· still adding

Distributing

  • 國泰證券 984 left
    sold 46%· ~29 sessions to clear
  • 台灣摩根士丹利 692 left
    sold 33%· ~30 sessions to clear
  • 凱基-城中 370 left
    sold 54%· paused recently
  • 凱基-信義 142 left
    sold 82%· ~47 sessions to clear
  • 美林 208 left
    sold 58%· ~16 sessions to clear
  • 摩根大通 318 left
    sold 33%· ~127 sessions to clear

Desks

  • 台新 -634
    unclassified
  • 群益金鼎 -418
    unclassified
  • 富邦-南京 -254
    unclassified
  • 國票-北高雄 -220
    unclassified
Still selling 2,904 lots ~127 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +1,551 absorbed / -1,343 sold buyers slightly ahead
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

252-day price high (breakout)

Active

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

27 historical occurrences (since 2016-07-22)
Average forward return after 252-day price high (breakout)。20-day: Win 53.8%, Sample 26, Median +1.11%, Excess +4.58%, Beat mkt rate 38.5%；60-day: Win 56%, Sample 25, Median +2.74%, Excess +2.31%, Beat mkt rate 40%；120-day: Win 64%, Sample 25, Median +8.32%, Excess +5.1%, Beat mkt rate 44%

120 days after: historical avg +15.57%

20-day +6.46%
60-day +6.76%
120-day +15.57%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
53.8%
56%
64%
Sample
26
25
25
Median
+1.11%
+2.74%
+8.32%
Excess
+4.58%
+2.31%
+5.1%
Beat mkt rate
38.5%
40%
44%

Over 25 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 15.57%, beat the market by 5.1 pts; win rate 64%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 158+59.5% +64.5% 100% +36.7%
20-40 166+30.2% +24.4% 89.2% +10.1%
40-60 205+26.8% +1.3% 51.2% +11.7%
60-80 574+55.7% +11.7% 66.9% +28.6%
80-100 You are here715+17.3% +13.8% 60.7% 0%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 57.87, at the 100.0th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
+28.6%
Win rate 87.7% Excess +13.7%
114d
+11.6%
Win rate 49% Excess +7.2%
206d
Now
+10.7%
Win rate 53.2% Excess -1.4%
849d
60-day momentum down
+9.4%
Win rate 64.4% Excess +1%
146d
+18.4%
Win rate 57.6% Excess +11.7%
297d
+32.7%
Win rate 64.1% Excess +19.7%
326d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 849 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 10.7%, win rate 53.2%, lagged the market by 1.4%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Pending

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

63 times historically; 60-day forward avg +8.09%, win rate 63.8%, beating the market by +2.38 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

51 times historically; 60-day forward avg +5.49%, win rate 57.1%, beating the market by +2.02 pts on average.

What does 鈺邦 do? Company profile

電子零組件業；被動元件；電容器（導電高分子固態電容、固液混合電容） 台灣證券交易所上市（TWSE）

Overview

6449 對應證券為鈺邦科技股份有限公司普通股，英文名 APAQ TECHNOLOGY CO., LTD.，股票代碼 6449，2014 年 12 月掛牌上市。公司創立於 2005 年 12 月，總公司位於苗栗縣竹南鎮科東三路 2、6 號 4 樓（竹南科學園區），工廠包含中國江蘇無錫與湖北十堰竹溪等據點；公司官網亦列示 2026 年鈺邦泰國量產規劃。經營團隊方面，董事長為鄭敦仁博士，執行長為林清封博士，總經理為林溪東先生；發言人為財務處處長李佩玲。公司資本額約新台幣 9.19 億元；113 年年報列 114 年 3 月 31 日員工合計 547 人，其中研發 67 人、業務及管理 178 人、直接人員 302 人。主要股東依公司 114 年 3 月 28 日資料包括西北臺慶科技 27.19%、華誠創業投資 11.60%、台北富邦商業銀行受託鈺邦科技信託財產專戶 3.73%、鄭敦仁 3.68%、華敏投資 3.49%、台虹科技 3.19%、富凱投資管理顧問 2.24%、王富代 1.74%、耀凱投資管理顧問 1.52%、林清封 1.31%。

Business

鈺邦主要從事固態電容之研究、開發、設計、製造與銷售，核心產品為捲繞型導電高分子固態電容器與晶片型導電高分子固態電容器，並延伸至導電高分子固液混合鋁電容、SMLC 等產品。113 年度營收淨額為新台幣 34.95668 億元，其中捲繞型導電高分子固態電容器 24.47329 億元、占 70.01%，晶片型導電高分子固態電容器 10.48339 億元、占 29.99%；公司官網每月營收頁列 2025 年全年營收 44.74668 億元，較 2024 年 34.95668 億元成長約 28.01%。銷售區域以外銷亞洲為主，113 年外銷亞洲占 94.82%、內銷占 4.28%、外銷其他占 0.90%。主要用途為 MB、VGA、NB、Server、HPC 的 Power 穩壓應用；下游應用涵蓋高階主機板、筆記型電腦、工業電腦、伺服器、VGA 卡、遊戲機、小型化適配器、充電器、AI PC、AI Server、車用與網通產品。商業模式為以自有研發與量產製程供應高頻、低 ESR、耐高溫、長壽命之電容元件，透過既有品牌客戶與 ODM/OEM 供應鏈出貨；113 年度年報揭露銷貨占比逾 10% 客戶為華碩 11.82%、技嘉 10.42%，其餘客戶合計 77.66%。上游原料包含鋁箔、電解紙、導針、膠粒、鋁殼、高分子單體、高分子氧化劑、碳膠、銀膠、封裝膠與導線架；113 年度進貨中，新宙邦占 7.66%，其餘供應商合計 92.34%。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025 至 2028 年主要成長軸線為 AI Server、AI PC、Power、Automotive、HPC 與高階 NB/VGA。公司 113 年年報明確列出 2025 年營業計畫：推廣 V-chip 取代 DIP 並擴充 V-chip 產能；強攻 CAP 在 Server、NB、VGA、Game Console 等應用市占並擴充 CAP 產能；加速 Hybrid 在車用市場開發；擴充 SMLC 產能以取代鉭電容 POSCAP；將 V-Chip、CAP、Hybrid 導入 AI Server 應用並提高滲透率；擴大 DIP 與 Hybrid 在高階 Power 市場市占。研發方向包括 AI Server/AI PC/EV 用高信賴 CAP/Vchip/Hybrid、小尺寸與薄型化 CAP、NB 用薄型 Vchip、AI Server/EV 用 High Ripple 與 Low ESR Hybrid。公司 2024 年已推出高溫長壽命晶片型固態電容（AI 應用，125℃、3000Hr/5500Hr）、1.0mm 低總高晶片型電容、高壓高容晶片型固態電容、SMLC B-Size、SSD 用 SMLC、車用/工業用 Hybrid 50~80V 產品；官網列 2025 年 SMLC 全系列產品推出、2026 年泰國量產。外部報導指出，鈺邦因 Vchip、Hybrid、CAP 等產品受惠 NVIDIA B200/GB200/B300 等 AI 伺服器平台需求，並啟動五年擴產計畫，2028 年總產能挑戰 5.3 億顆，惟該報導未清楚說明此數字之期間與口徑，應視為媒體/法人轉述而非公司年報正式財測。潛在風險包括 AI 伺服器與高階 PC 拉貨波動、客戶集中度、原材料價格上揚、匯率波動、日系/台系/中系電容廠競爭、擴產良率與產能利用率不如預期、車用認證與導入時程較長，以及中國子公司環保合規支出；113 年年報揭露無錫子公司曾因水污染物排放及環保設施事項遭裁罰人民幣 47.3 萬元，並產生污水管道設施改善與排水許可相關資本支出。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 新宙邦 113 年度年報揭露之主要供應商，供應高分子/電解液相關材料可能性高；新宙邦為中國深圳上市公司（深圳證券交易所 300037），非台股掛牌，故 stock_id 為 null。
  • 鋁箔供應商 鈺邦年報列鋁箔為主要原料，供應狀況穩定良好；未揭露具名台股供應商。
  • 電解紙、導針、鋁殼、膠粒、導線架供應商 鈺邦年報列為固態/晶片型電容主要原料與零組件，供應狀況穩定良好；未揭露具名台股供應商。
  • 高分子單體、高分子氧化劑、碳膠、銀膠、封裝膠供應商 鈺邦年報列為主要材料，供應狀況穩定良好；未揭露具名台股供應商。
Downstream
  • 華碩 2357 113 年度年報揭露之主要銷售客戶，銷貨金額新台幣 4.13231 億元，占銷貨淨額 11.82%；終端應用包括主機板、筆電、伺服器與高階運算相關產品。
  • 技嘉 2376 113 年度年報揭露之主要銷售客戶，銷貨金額新台幣 3.64173 億元，占銷貨淨額 10.42%；終端應用包括主機板、VGA、伺服器與高階運算相關產品。
  • NVIDIA 媒體報導稱鈺邦 Vchip/Hybrid 等產品受惠 NVIDIA B200、GB200、B300 等 AI 伺服器平台供應鏈；NVIDIA 為美國上市公司，且鈺邦年報未直接列名，故列為報導/市場資訊而非公司正式揭露客戶。
  • 伺服器、AI PC、HPC、VGA、NB、車用與網通 ODM/OEM 客戶 鈺邦年報列主要應用市場，未逐一揭露具名公司；多屬品牌廠、板卡廠、伺服器供應鏈與車用電子供應鏈。

Competitors

  • 立隆電 2472 台股上市鋁質電解電容廠，為鈺邦年報列示之固態電容競爭對手之一。
  • 凱美 2375 台股上市被動元件/電容相關公司，市場上常以金山/凱美體系與鋁電解、固態電容競爭連結；年報提及『金山』為競爭對手。
  • 國巨 2327 台股上市被動元件龍頭，產品線與子公司/併購體系涵蓋電容等被動元件；屬廣義被動元件競爭者，非年報直接列名之固態電容主要對手。
  • Nippon Chemi-Con（Chemicon） 日本上市/海外公司，鈺邦年報列為主要競爭對手之一，非台股掛牌。
  • Nichicon 日本上市/海外電容廠，鈺邦年報列為主要競爭對手之一，非台股掛牌。
  • Panasonic 日本上市/海外綜合電子與電容廠，鈺邦年報列為主要競爭對手之一，非台股掛牌。
Sources（11）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.