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6485
quality needs a look, premium valuation, no active signal today.
Is 點序 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first
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Weak profitability.Operating margin is in the 27th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 0.0%.
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Valuation is high.PE is in the 99th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 96th percentile.
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Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -1.3% of volume (net sell).
Chip flow
Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -23% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12
- Largest holder 元大-雙和 has accumulated 405 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
- Main distributor 富邦證券 peaked at 1,870 lots, has sold 87%, 238 left, paused recently.
- TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +2.27pp, mid holders +0, retail -0.56pp — concentration shifting upward.
- Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -920 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Accumulating
- 元大-雙和 +405
- 凱基-大直 +203
- 兆豐-南門 +108
- 華南永昌-中正 +106
- 聯邦-高雄 +106
- 玉山-新莊 +105
Distributing
- 富邦證券 238 left
- 台新-西松 434 left
- 港商野村 156 left
- 康和-台中 120 left
- 國泰-敦南 170 left
- 統一-內湖 170 left
Desks
- 凱基-站前 -969
- 國泰證券 -469
- 永豐金-信義 -397
- 美林 -319
Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.
Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.
Historical evidence
Valuation regime and subsequent returns
Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.
| PE percentile band | Sample days | 240-day avg return | Median | Win rate | Avg excess (vs index) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20 | 219 | +30.6% | +28.8% | 80.8% | +12.1% |
| 20-40 | 79 | -21.8% | -23.9% | 1.3% | -37.9% |
| 40-60 | 146 | +31.5% | -28.7% | 15.8% | +11.2% |
| 60-80 | 298 | +87.1% | -23.3% | 40.6% | +51.4% |
| 80-100 You are here | 328 | +154.7% | +28.4% | 72.6% | +120.2% |
Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.
Current PE ≈ 594.0, at the 95.9th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).
Valuation × momentum historical grid
Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.
Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum down”: across 336 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 48.8%, win rate 48.8%, beat the market by 21%.
Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.
Signals not active (historical stats for reference)
These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.
252-day price high (breakout)
PendingAdjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.
10 times historically; 60-day forward avg +16.37%, win rate 50%, beating the market by +11.94 pts on average.
Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)
PendingMonthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).
43 times historically; 60-day forward avg +8.43%, win rate 46.5%, beating the market by +6.13 pts on average.
Foreign net buying for 5 straight days
PendingForeign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.
38 times historically; 60-day forward avg +2.34%, win rate 43.2%, beating the market by -3.14 pts on average.
What does 點序 do? Company profile
Overview
6485 對應證券為點序科技股份有限公司，屬上櫃普通股。公司成立於2008年2月13日，主要定位為快閃記憶體控制晶片供應商與IC設計公司；櫃買中心資料列示主要經營業務為NAND Flash Controller IC研發製造。公司股票於2015年11月17日上櫃，總部／新竹辦公室位於新竹縣竹北市環科一路31號8樓之1，另有台北辦公室。董事長為劉坤旺投資有限公司代表人劉坤旺，2026年6月16日董事會改選後續任董事長；總經理為顏文鴻、陳孟豪。實收資本額公開資料約新台幣4.69億元，已發行普通股約46,906,508股；104人力銀行資料顯示員工約340人且研發人員占比逾80%，此為徵才平台揭露數，非年報逐項查核數。2026年4月18日前十大股東包含合欣投資5.70%、劉坤旺投資4.75%、中國信託商業銀行受託保管美商金士頓科技股份有限公司投資專戶4.59%、吳昭逸2.11%、林渭哲1.91%、花旗託管柏克萊資本SBL/PB投資專戶1.62%、顏文鴻1.32%、洪維澤1.17%、朱敏榕1.11%、蘇麗玲1.02%，前十大合計25.31%。
Business
點序為NAND Flash控制IC設計商，產品涵蓋SD／microSD記憶卡控制晶片、USB隨身碟UFD控制晶片、eMMC內嵌式記憶體控制晶片、SATA III與PCIe／NVMe SSD控制晶片，以及少量封裝控制器與其他收入。公司商業模式為研發控制IC、韌體與解決方案，支援多家NAND Flash原廠顆粒，銷售予記憶體模組廠、品牌廠與終端產品供應鏈。2025年度營收約新台幣14.74489億元，年增16.84%；產品組合以Flash Controller為主，2025年Flash Controller約14.25089億元、占96.65%，Packaged Controller約517.8萬元、占0.35%，其他約4,422.2萬元、占3.00%。2024年資料顯示Flash控制IC占約94%，銷售區域台灣約30%、其他地區約70%，主要客戶包含大股東金士頓，出貨產品為NAND Flash控制IC及記憶卡IC。終端應用包括智慧型手機、平板、數位相機、行車紀錄器、PC與行動裝置、電視盒、遊戲機、學習筆電、工控、資料中心、可攜式SSD，以及AI伺服器管理與控制模組所需的開機與資料儲存。核心技術包含Wear-Leveling耗損平均、ECC錯誤檢查糾正、壞區管理、LDPC等韌體與控制技術。
Outlook 2025–2028
2025至2028年主要成長動能預期來自eMMC控制器、高毛利新控制器、新NAND世代支援、AI伺服器控制模組儲存需求、低功耗AI裝置與邊緣AI應用。公司於2025年下半年起推出高單價、高毛利新品，2026年第1季雖因NAND Flash缺貨與消費需求疲弱使營收年減14.8%，但毛利率提升至57.2%。法說會資料顯示，公司已推出支援QLC NAND且搭載4K LDPC的新控制器，2026年規劃推出兩款40奈米新控制器，28奈米SATA 3控制器處於工程驗證，22奈米Portable SSD控制器預計2026年第4季問世，傳輸速度目標上看2800MB/s並支援多項安全加密功能。公司明確表示eMMC將是2026至2028年最重要成長引擎，策略從過去以小型模組廠為主，轉向與品牌大廠及NAND Flash原廠合作，相關客戶逐步量產，預期2026年下半年開始貢獻營收。主要風險包括NAND Flash供應吃緊或價格劇烈波動導致SD等終端客戶採購保守、消費性電子需求疲弱、成熟製程晶圓產能與成本變化、控制IC同業價格競爭、客戶集中度與大股東客戶訂單波動、新產品驗證與量產時程不如預期，以及AI伺服器／邊緣AI儲存需求仍需實際放量驗證。
Supply Chain
- 台積電 2330 晶圓代工成熟製程供應鏈重要業者；公開報導曾以NAND控制IC產能脈絡提及台積電與聯電，但未查得點序對單一晶圓代工廠的直接採購金額或占比，故屬供應鏈推估。
- 聯電 2303 成熟製程晶圓代工供應鏈重要業者；聯電旗下迅捷投資曾被MoneyDJ列為點序主要法人股東之一，但直接供應關係與比重未能由公開資料確認。
- 三星電子 韓國上市NAND Flash原廠；點序SD、UFD、SSD等控制器產品頁多次列示支援Samsung 3D NAND顆粒，屬上游NAND生態系。
- 鎧俠／Kioxia 日本NAND Flash原廠，未上市；點序控制器產品頁列示支援Kioxia BiCS系列NAND。
- 威騰／Western Digital 美國上市NAND Flash相關業者；點序控制器產品頁列示支援WD BiCS系列NAND。
- 美光／Micron 美國上市NAND Flash原廠；點序控制器產品頁列示支援Micron 3D NAND與QLC顆粒。
- SK hynix 韓國上市NAND Flash原廠；點序控制器產品頁列示支援Hynix多世代3D NAND。
- 長江存儲／YMTC 中國NAND Flash原廠，未在台股掛牌；點序產品頁列示支援YMTC NAND顆粒。
- Solidigm NAND供應商，非台股掛牌；點序產品頁列示支援Solidigm QLC NAND。
- 金士頓科技／Kingston Technology 美國未上市記憶體模組與品牌大廠，為點序重要股東與主要客戶之一；MoneyDJ列示點序主要客戶為金士頓，出貨NAND Flash控制IC及記憶卡IC。
- 群聯 8299 台股上櫃NAND控制IC與模組相關廠商；同業兼合作夥伴，公開報導曾提及群聯釋出中低階控制晶片採購單予點序，但雙方最新採購比重未公開。
- 品牌大廠與NAND Flash原廠 公司法說會表示eMMC產品策略已轉向與品牌大廠及NAND Flash原廠合作，客戶逐步進入量產；未揭露個別名稱。
- 記憶體模組廠 SD卡、USB隨身碟、SSD與eMMC模組客戶群；部分可能為未上市或海外公司，公開資料未逐一揭露。
- AI伺服器控制模組供應鏈 點序表示已有客戶將eMMC導入AI伺服器相關控制晶片應用，主要用於管理與控制模組開機及資料儲存；客戶名稱未公開。
Competitors
- 群聯 8299 台股上櫃，NAND Flash控制IC、SSD控制器與儲存模組大廠；與點序既有競爭也有合作／訂單轉介報導。
- 安國 8054 台股上櫃，MoneyDJ列為Flash控制IC國內競爭廠商之一。
- 智微 台股上櫃，MoneyDJ列為Flash控制IC國內競爭廠商之一。
- 聯陽 3014 台股上市，MoneyDJ列為Flash控制IC國內競爭廠商之一。
- 鑫創 3259 台股上櫃，MoneyDJ列為Flash控制IC與記憶卡IC競爭廠商之一。
- 慧榮科技／Silicon Motion 美國掛牌、非台股；MoneyDJ列為Flash控制IC與記憶卡IC競爭廠商之一。
- 三星電子 韓國上市、非台股；MoneyDJ列為國外競爭廠商，具NAND與控制器垂直整合能力。
Sources（18）
This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.
Method and limitations
- All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
- Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
- Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
- Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
- Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.
This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.