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8070

長華* Electronics Distribution As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

steady quality, fair valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 長華* to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 49Quality 65Growth 70Momentum 75Chips 92

Is 長華* a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 68th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 2.7%.

  • Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 76th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 95th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 11.5% of volume (net buy).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 26.3%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.94
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 摩根大通 holds 14,769 lots
  • sellers have 5,260 lots left, ~292 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +16% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 摩根大通 has accumulated 14,769 lots since the start (sold 3%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 凱基-台北 peaked at 3,950 lots, has sold 40%, 2,366 left, ~292 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +2.49pp, mid holders +14, retail -2.83pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -578 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
摩根大通美商高盛台灣摩根士丹利新加坡商瑞銀永豐金-高雄凱基-高雄
Distributing
凱基-台北港商野村群益金鼎-開元台新-大裕元大-竹科群益金鼎-高雄
Desks
own scale
群益金鼎元大證券華南永昌國票-敦北法人
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 摩根大通 +14,769
    sold 3%· still adding
  • 美商高盛 +10,581
    sold 6%· still adding
  • 台灣摩根士丹利 +10,397
    sold 23%· still adding
  • 新加坡商瑞銀 +9,262
    sold 16%· still adding
  • 永豐金-高雄 +2,914
    sold 0%
  • 凱基-高雄 +2,751
    sold 0%· still adding

Distributing

  • 凱基-台北 2,366 left
    sold 40%· ~292 sessions to clear
  • 港商野村 2,022 left
    sold 41%· ~97 sessions to clear
  • 群益金鼎-開元 166 left
    sold 79%· ~3 sessions to clear
  • 台新-大裕 539 left
    sold 29%· paused recently
  • 元大-竹科 60 left
    sold 87%· ~1 sessions to clear
  • 群益金鼎-高雄 253 left
    sold 39%· ~16 sessions to clear

Desks

  • 群益金鼎 -20,033
    unclassified
  • 元大證券 -17,000
    unclassified
  • 華南永昌 -4,790
    unclassified
  • 國票-敦北法人 -4,679
    unclassified
Still selling 5,260 lots ~292 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +25,587 absorbed / -1,902 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -394 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 26.34%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

59 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 55.1%, Sample 49, Median +0.7%, Excess +1.78%, Beat mkt rate 51%；60-day: Win 59.6%, Sample 47, Median +2.82%, Excess +2.83%, Beat mkt rate 57.4%；120-day: Win 54.3%, Sample 46, Median +3.74%, Excess +5.25%, Beat mkt rate 56.5%

120 days after: historical avg +7.49%

20-day +2.27%
60-day +4.85%
120-day +7.49%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
55.1%
59.6%
54.3%
Sample
49
47
46
Median
+0.7%
+2.82%
+3.74%
Excess
+1.78%
+2.83%
+5.25%
Beat mkt rate
51%
57.4%
56.5%

Over 46 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 7.49%, beat the market by 5.25 pts; win rate 54.3%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 607+47.1% +35.6% 83.5% +22.8%
20-40 518+15.3% +5.7% 65.8% +0.2%
40-60 587+32.7% +25.2% 83.1% +14.6%
60-80 685+22% +15.5% 80.4% +11.5%
80-100 You are here570+3.8% +1.3% 53.5% -12%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 51.51, at the 94.8th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
+9.5%
Win rate 56.2% Excess +2.3%
429d
+9.7%
Win rate 57.5% Excess +1.6%
558d
Now
+13%
Win rate 58.8% Excess +2.9%
828d
60-day momentum down
+14.5%
Win rate 80.8% Excess +3.2%
478d
+15.6%
Win rate 77.2% Excess +10.7%
412d
+5.5%
Win rate 57.7% Excess -2.3%
381d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 828 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 13%, win rate 58.8%, beat the market by 2.9%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

34 times historically; 60-day forward avg +9.01%, win rate 53.1%, beating the market by +5.41 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

52 times historically; 60-day forward avg +4.56%, win rate 58%, beating the market by +1.73 pts on average.

What does 長華* do? Company profile

電子通路業／半導體封裝材料與設備 台灣證券交易所上市

Overview

8070 對應長華電材股份有限公司，台灣證券交易所簡稱長華*，屬普通股。公司創立於1989年5月13日，總公司位於高雄市楠梓區東七街16號6樓（楠梓科技產業園區），董事長洪全成，總經理黃俊勳／黃俊勲。股票曾於2003年10月30日上櫃，2007年12月31日轉上市。公司官網揭露實收資本額約新台幣7.26億元；公開資料顯示普通股發行股數725,648,455股，每股面額1元。員工規模方面，公司官網列示個體79人、合併2329人；2024年年報列示截至2025年4月2日合併員工2339人。2024年年報前十大股東包含華立企業持股28.70%、新欣投資8.29%、元耀能源科技6.28%、長華科技5.11%、富邦人壽4.67%、倍斯捷投資3.15%等。2025年經會計師查核合併營收193.52億元、年增12%，營業利益21.58億元、年增12%，歸屬母公司業主淨利7.16億元、年減55%，EPS 1.02元；2025年現金股利合計每股2.71元。

Business

長華電材以半導體封裝材料與設備通路商起家，代理國內外封裝材料、設備與面板材料，並透過子公司長華科技等從事金屬導線架生產銷售，定位由通路商逐步結合製造能力。主要產品包含IC導線架、封膠樹酯、記憶體基板、FCBGA／FCCSP覆晶基板、導電膠與非導電膠、自動模壓設備、去渣成型設備、離型膜、再生晶圓片、EMC LED導線架與FPC等。依2024年年報，2024年合併營收結構為IC導線架50.64%、封膠樹酯28.19%、基板5.65%、其他銷貨14.13%、勞務收入0.60%、租賃收入0.18%、其他營業收入0.61%；銷售地區為台灣38%、亞洲58%、其他4%。公司官網產品頁另揭露代理住友電木封膠樹酯、導電／非導電膠，代理京瓷覆晶基板，代理AGC離型膜，並列長華科技、日月光電子、住友電木、艾爾斯半導體、易華電子、旗勝科技、美商諾信、京瓷、山田尖端科技、旭硝子玻璃、奇美實業等代理品牌或合作產品來源。商業模式上，通路業務以取得代理線、提供客戶材料選型與技術服務、銷售封裝材料與設備為主；製造業務則由子公司供應導線架與Mini LED／LED相關金屬載板。終端應用涵蓋IC封裝、記憶體、伺服器／路由器ASIC、高效能遊戲機MPU、繪圖處理器、PC周邊、車用、網通電信、行動裝置、光電、消費性電子與能源等。年報揭露2024年單一銷貨客戶甲公司占銷貨淨額10%，但未揭露客戶名稱。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025年已公布財報顯示營收成長但獲利受業外拖累：合併營收193.52億元、年增12%，主要受惠消費電子、網通與工控應用需求強勁，帶動封膠樹酯及IC導線架成長；但第4季認列轉投資易華電子投資損失及商譽減損，加上匯兌損失，使歸屬母公司淨利年減55%。2026至2028年展望可分為幾項主軸：第一，AI、HPC、HBM、CoWoS／InFO等先進封裝需求提升，將帶動先進封裝材料、晶圓級／面板級模壓設備、MUF材料設備與相關封裝耗材需求；公司2024年年報已揭露材料由12吋晶圓級封裝擴展至面板級封裝，相關材料自2024年下半年出貨，並規劃從12吋WLP擴展至310x310mm、600x600mm等Panel Size Molding。第二，公司中長期研發與產品計畫包含3D-IC、SiP、FCBGA／FCCSP、WLP、AiP、MUF材料設備、高密度／長引腳／多排／Flip-Chip平板導線架、第三代半導體用高信賴性導線架、IC封裝檢驗分選機，以及Mini LED金屬基板、Mini LED測包機、Micro LED塑膠基板。第三，子公司長華科技聚焦QFN／QFP全球銷售、DRAM既有市場與NAND Flash開發，並擴展Mini LED導線架、車用照明、車用顯示、工控與網通應用；長華電材年報列示2025年預計研發費用約新台幣4.32億元。第四，2026年以後的主要挑戰包括貴金屬（金、鈀、銀）價格波動、銅合金等原料成本、匯率波動、半導體景氣循環、消費電子復甦速度、車用／工控庫存去化、封裝材料與導線架競爭、先進封裝設備訂單交付時程，以及轉投資易華電子等業外波動。2027至2028年的成長動能屬推估，主要建立在AI基礎設施、邊緣AI、車用半導體、先進封裝擴產、Mini／Micro LED滲透與台灣封測供應鏈投資延續；實際營收與獲利仍需追蹤每月營收、毛利率、匯兌損益、貴金屬轉嫁能力、先進封裝設備出貨與主要子公司長華科技稼動率。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 住友電木株式會社（Sumitomo Bakelite） 日本上市公司；長華長期代理其封膠樹酯、導電／非導電膠等半導體封裝材料，年報稱雙方合作逾35年。
  • 京瓷（Kyocera） 日本上市公司；長華代理覆晶基板／FCBGA、FCCSP相關IC載板產品。
  • 旭硝子玻璃／AGC 日本上市公司；長華代理離型膜，應用於HDI、BGA、CSP、WLP等晶圓封裝。
  • 山田尖端科技株式會社／YAMADA 日本設備供應商；市場資料指出長華代理其晶圓級模壓等先進封裝設備，非台股掛牌。
  • 美商諾信（Nordson） 美國上市公司；列於長華官網代理品牌，提供封裝或相關製程設備／材料，非台股掛牌。
  • 奇美實業 台灣未上市公司；列於長華官網代理品牌／材料來源，非台股掛牌。
  • 長華科技 6548 長華電材重要子公司與集團製造端，生產IC／LED導線架、Mini LED與EMC金屬載板等。
  • 銅合金卷材供應商 年報揭露主要來源為中國、新加坡、馬來西亞，供應狀況良好；未揭露具名公司。
  • 金、鈀、銀貴金屬供應商 年報揭露主要來源為中國、新加坡、日本、台灣，為導線架與封裝材料成本關鍵；未揭露具名公司。
Downstream
  • IC封裝廠 年報列示導線架下游為IC封裝廠，應用於液晶面板、汽車、電腦周邊、照明、手持消費電子、精密儀器與航太工業；多數客戶名稱未公開。
  • LED封裝廠 年報列示LED導線架下游為LED封裝廠，應用於照明、車用、顯示與光電產品；具名客戶未公開。
  • 台積電 2330 市場與股東會報導指出長華先進封裝設備已打入台積電等台灣主要封測／先進封裝供應鏈；此客戶資訊非2024年年報具名揭露，需持續查證。
  • 日月光投控／日月光半導體 3711 長華官網列日月光電子為代理品牌之一；市場報導亦稱先進封裝設備進入日月光相關供應鏈。日月光半導體為日月光投控旗下公司。
  • 矽品精密 市場報導指出先進封裝設備取得矽品訂單；矽品已併入日月光投控體系、非獨立台股掛牌公司。
  • 記憶體、網通、車用、工控與消費電子客戶 公司2025財報新聞稿稱營收成長受惠消費電子、網通與工控需求；年報短期計畫亦提到固守DRAM並開發NAND Flash市場，但未揭露具名客戶。

Competitors

  • MHT 年報列為IC導線架競爭者；非台股掛牌或未確認台股代號。
  • 新光電氣（Shinko Electric Industries） 日本上市／曾上市封裝基板與導線架相關廠商；年報列為IC導線架競爭者，非台股掛牌。
  • HDS 年報列為IC導線架競爭者；非台股掛牌或未確認台股代號。
  • AAMI 年報列為IC導線架競爭者；非台股掛牌或未確認台股代號。
  • Resonac 日本上市化學材料廠，年報列為封膠樹酯與導電／非導電膠競爭者，非台股掛牌。
  • Panasonic 日本上市公司，年報列為封膠樹酯競爭者，非台股掛牌。
  • Kyocera 日本上市公司，年報列為封膠樹酯競爭者且亦為長華代理覆晶基板來源，非台股掛牌。
  • Henkel 德國上市化工材料公司，年報列為導電／非導電膠競爭者，非台股掛牌。
  • 南亞 1303 年報列為IC基板競爭者；台股上市公司。
  • 景碩 3189 年報列為IC基板競爭者；台股上市公司。
  • 欣興 3037 年報列為IC基板競爭者；台股上市公司。
  • Simmtech 韓國上市／海外IC基板廠，年報列為IC基板競爭者，非台股掛牌。
  • 一詮 2486 年報列為LED封裝導線架競爭者；台股上市公司。
  • 健策 3653 年報列為LED封裝導線架競爭者；台股上市公司。
Sources（11）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.