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8072

陞泰 Electronics Distribution As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

steady quality, fair valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 陞泰 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 63Quality 43Growth 74Momentum 27Chips 47

Is 陞泰 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 45th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 1.2%.

  • Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 60th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 67th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 0.1% of volume (net buy).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 31.4%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bearish -0.21
BearishNeutralBullish

Distribution to retail — bearish

  • Distribution to retail — bearish
  • 國泰-敦南 holds 131 lots
  • sellers have 179 lots left, ~80 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -12% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 國泰-敦南 has accumulated 131 lots since the start (sold 8%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 元大-三峽 peaked at 54 lots, has sold 35%, 35 left, paused recently.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -1.48pp, mid holders -2, retail +1.60pp — drifting down to retail.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -602 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
國泰-敦南凱基-苗栗凱基-長庚國票-安和凱基-竹北台新-板橋
Distributing
元大-三峽元大-東泰美好-蘆洲富邦-新營元大-嘉義合庫-嘉義
Desks
own scale
台灣摩根士丹利新加坡商瑞銀美林摩根大通
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 國泰-敦南 +131
    sold 8%· still adding
  • 凱基-苗栗 +96
    sold 3%· still adding
  • 凱基-長庚 +91
    sold 5%
  • 國票-安和 +87
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 凱基-竹北 +80
    sold 21%
  • 台新-板橋 +79
    sold 0%· still adding

Distributing

  • 元大-三峽 35 left
    sold 35%· paused recently
  • 元大-東泰 6 left
    sold 88%· paused recently
  • 美好-蘆洲 21 left
    sold 57%· paused recently
  • 富邦-新營 23 left
    sold 43%· ~14 sessions to clear
  • 元大-嘉義 19 left
    sold 50%· ~38 sessions to clear
  • 合庫-嘉義 16 left
    sold 58%· ~80 sessions to clear

Desks

  • 台灣摩根士丹利 -457
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 新加坡商瑞銀 -270
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 美林 -245
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 摩根大通 -165
    hedge desk · will cover
Still selling 179 lots ~80 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +501 absorbed / -121 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -493 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Weak direction: big-holder share fell while retail share rose.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 31.37%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

42 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 35.3%, Sample 34, Median -1.87%, Excess -4.35%, Beat mkt rate 20.6%；60-day: Win 24.2%, Sample 33, Median -5.96%, Excess -9.15%, Beat mkt rate 27.3%；120-day: Win 32.3%, Sample 31, Median -8.16%, Excess -20.67%, Beat mkt rate 25.8%

120 days after: historical avg -3.85%

20-day -2.03%
60-day -0.98%
120-day -3.85%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
35.3%
24.2%
32.3%
Sample
34
33
31
Median
-1.87%
-5.96%
-8.16%
Excess
-4.35%
-9.15%
-20.67%
Beat mkt rate
20.6%
27.3%
25.8%

Over 31 occurrences, 120-day forward avg declined 3.85%, lagged the market by 20.67 pts; win rate 32.3%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 20Insufficient data
20-40 71-2.7% -1.3% 19.7% -17.6%
40-60 140-11.2% -10.7% 1.4% -24.7%
60-80 You are here796+10.1% +6.5% 66.5% -14.3%
80-100 1104-10.6% -4.8% 41.9% -41.2%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 28.33, at the 67.1th percentile of its own history (60-80 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
+5.4%
Win rate 100% Excess +1%
38d
-1.6%
Win rate 24% Excess -10.6%
104d
Now
-4.3%
Win rate 40.2% Excess -17.8%
768d
60-day momentum down
Insufficient data
(26d)
-1.2%
Win rate 24.6% Excess -5%
134d
+0.3%
Win rate 45.7% Excess -14.4%
1181d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 768 historical days, 120-day forward avg declined 4.3%, win rate 40.2%, lagged the market by 17.8%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

18 times historically; 60-day forward avg -5.06%, win rate 38.9%, beating the market by -7.87 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

34 times historically; 60-day forward avg +0.33%, win rate 52.9%, beating the market by -4.58 pts on average.

What does 陞泰 do? Company profile

電子通路業；安全監控系統與半導體零組件代理 臺灣證券交易所上市

Overview

陞泰科技股份有限公司，股票代號8072，為臺灣證券交易所上市普通股。公司成立於1996年6月26日，2003年11月26日上櫃，2005年8月19日轉上市；統一編號97092770。公開資料顯示董事長為陳世忠，總經理及發言人為陳純平。公司營運據點位於台北市南港區三重路19之11號E棟10樓，登記地址為新北市三重區中興北街193-2號；104人力銀行資料列員工人數約150人。實收資本額新台幣8億元，已發行普通股8,000萬股，無特別股。主要股東方面，商業登記資料顯示董事長陳世忠代表俊宜投資股份有限公司持股22,215,044股，董事黃俊儒持股8,842,984股；第三方股市資訊列前十大持股合計約38.97%，但細項仍應以最新股東名簿及年報為準。公司投資人專區列2026年1至4月合併月營收分別為136,441、89,134、132,988、126,711仟元；2025年全年月營收合計約1,284,137仟元，與114年度年報摘要營業收入淨額1,284,133仟元相近。2025年度現金股利為1元、EPS為1.25元；114年度年報摘要則列歸屬母公司淨利88,994仟元、基本EPS 1.11元，兩者口徑或年度標示可能存在資料源差異，已在notes標示。

Business

陞泰早期以監視攝影機、DVR、影像處理與安全器材起家，現主要有兩大營運軸線：一是安全監控產品與系統服務，包含CCD Camera、DVR、IP Camera、NVR、監視防盜系統、門禁及影像相關軟硬體整合；二是半導體零組件代理銷售，代理電子材料與半導體產品線並提供FAE技術服務。公司104頁面描述其為影像處理安全器材製造商之一，業務涵蓋台灣及全球，並同時經營專業半導體零組件代理。114年度年報摘要列產品營收分布：電子材料1,041,125仟元、佔81%；視訊監控系統243,008仟元、佔19%，顯示近年營收主體已明顯偏向半導體代理，但安控產品仍是品牌、技術與政策題材核心。2025年1至9月法說摘要顯示半導體代理品牌中ABLIC佔半導體代理營收約53%、GMT約13%、3PEAK約10%、SII約9%、SmartSens約8%、其他約7%，其中ABLIC集中度偏高。商業模式上，半導體代理業務依賴代理線卡、客戶設計導入、供貨與FAE服務，終端應用涵蓋PC、伺服器、通訊power unit、散熱模組、Wi-Fi 7、低軌衛星通訊模組、DDR5 RAM、智能眼鏡、工業機器人、車載智能座艙、IPCam、倒車與環景影像等；安全監控業務則以AVTECH品牌、MIT產品、NDAA/TAA相容可信產品、政府與公部門專案、系統整合商通路、北美/台灣/日本等政治紅利市場為主要方向。公司近年從單品硬體銷售轉向高附加價值解決方案，導入人車偵測、人臉識別、車牌辨識、工安偵測、FIDO零信任模型、安全金鑰、LPR、IP Speaker、PTZ、Fisheye、180度攝影機等產品與應用。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025至2028年展望可分為成長動能與風險兩面。成長動能方面，第一，半導體代理業務受AI新技術推動，高效能邊緣運算、伺服器、高速網路設備、power unit與散熱模組需求提升，有利3PEAK等類比/電源相關產品線；智能眼鏡、工業機器人與車載智能座艙等新興應用有利ABLIC產品線；IPCam、倒車與環景影像維持SmartSens影像感測相關產品需求。第二，安控產業受地緣政治、資安與去中化趨勢帶動，台灣政府、公部門與海外市場對非中國製、NDAA/TAA Compliant、MIT可信產品需求提升，陞泰以台灣設計製造、無中國投資、資安與加密技術作為差異化賣點，有機會受惠政府標案、智慧城市、交通、智慧建築、公共安全與企業汰換需求。第三，公司策略已從硬體規格競爭轉向應用價值與系統整合，AI偵測進化至AI識別、FIDO零信任、CNS16120資安認證、NOVA產品線、台製晶片產品線、LPR與工安偵測主機等若能落地，可改善安控產品毛利與客戶黏著度。第四，114年度營收較113年度增長37%，2025年前三季法說摘要也顯示半導體代理與安控產品均較2024年復甦，短中期營收基期已改善。風險方面，第一，半導體代理營收高度集中於ABLIC，單一供應商、產品線授權、價格與供貨變動將影響業績；GMT產品停產及新產品延宕已被年報摘要列為通訊市場競爭力風險。第二，代理業務毛利率通常低於品牌安控解決方案，若營收成長主要來自電子材料，整體毛利率可能受壓；2025年法說摘要列Q2、Q3毛利率分別約16%、17%，低於Q1的19%。第三，AI伺服器與記憶體需求可能排擠安控用HDD、DRAM等供給，年報摘要亦提及記憶體缺料與成本大漲不利普銷市場；若無法轉嫁成本，安控毛利承壓。第四，美國關稅、匯率、伊朗戰爭等地緣政治與總體不確定性會影響終端客戶下單與外銷市場。第五，MIT與資安標案雖是機會，但政府標案節奏、認證時程、同業競標及實際落規要求存在不確定性。第六，安控市場中海康威視、大華等中國大廠在全球仍具價格優勢，台灣同業如奇偶、昇銳、晶睿、彩富等亦競爭激烈。整體判斷：2025至2026年主要看半導體代理復甦能否延續、ABLIC/3PEAK/SmartSens等線卡導入成果、政府MIT安控標案是否放量；2027至2028年則取決於AI安控、可信供應鏈與高附加價值系統服務能否擺脫純硬體價格戰並提升毛利結構。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • ABLIC Inc. 半導體代理主要產品線之一；2025年1至9月法說摘要列其約佔半導體代理營收53%，為日本半導體公司，非台股掛牌，單一供應商集中度高。
  • 致新科技股份有限公司（GMT） 8081 半導體代理產品線之一；2025年1至9月法說摘要列GMT約佔半導體代理營收13%。年報摘要提及GMT產品停產與新產品延宕影響通訊市場競爭力。
  • 3PEAK 半導體代理產品線之一；中國A股上市類比IC公司，非台股掛牌。年報摘要提及AI、高速網路設備、power unit與散熱模組需求有利3PEAK產品線。
  • SII／Seiko Instruments 半導體代理產品線之一；日本企業，非台股掛牌。2025年1至9月法說摘要列SII約佔半導體代理營收9%。
  • SmartSens Technology 半導體代理產品線之一；中國影像感測器公司，非台股掛牌。2025年1至9月法說摘要列SmartSens約佔半導體代理營收8%，應用包含IPCam、倒車與環景影像。
  • 安控零組件供應商 視訊監控產品上游包含影像感測器、SoC、鏡頭、PCB、DRAM、HDD、外殼、PoE交換器與網通零組件；公司未在可查公開資料完整揭露具名供應商，因此以產業鏈類別列示。
Downstream
  • 國內公務機關與政府標案客戶 鉅亨新聞稱陞泰主要客戶為國內公務機關，內銷比重達73%；受中國製設備汰換、MIT與可信安控需求推動。非上市櫃公司。
  • 安控系統整合商與工程商 安全監控產品下游客戶，協助導入攝影機、NVR/DVR、LPR、IP Speaker、工安偵測主機與影像管理系統；多數客戶未公開具名。
  • 北美、台灣、日本等政治紅利市場通路與專案客戶 公司年報摘要列北美、台灣、日本為MIT網路攝影機與可信產品推廣重點市場；終端可能包含公共安全、交通、智慧建築與企業安防。具名客戶未公開。
  • PC、伺服器、通訊、車用與工業電子客戶 半導體代理下游應用客戶，涵蓋PC/Server/通訊power unit、散熱、Wi-Fi 7、低軌衛星通訊模組、DDR5、車載座艙、工業機器人與IPCam等；具名客戶未公開。

Competitors

Sources（12）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.