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8422

可寧衛* Green Energy & Environment As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

strong quality, fair valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 可寧衛* to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 49Quality 76Growth 96Momentum 52Chips 74

Is 可寧衛* a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Top-tier profitability.Operating margin beats ~95% of the market. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 2.3%.

  • Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 56th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 99th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 4.1% of volume (net buy).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 199.6%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bearish -0.26
BearishNeutralBullish

Distribution to retail — bearish

  • Distribution to retail — bearish
  • 台灣摩根士丹利 holds 16,889 lots
  • sellers have 1,034 lots left, ~240 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -37% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 台灣摩根士丹利 has accumulated 16,889 lots since the start (sold 16%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 富邦證券 peaked at 2,298 lots, has sold 84%, 359 left, paused recently.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -8.06pp, mid holders -3, retail +7.88pp — drifting down to retail.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -42,860 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
台灣摩根士丹利統一台新證券國泰-敦南花旗環球凱基
Distributing
富邦證券國票-天祥國票證券合庫-台南中國信託-永康元大-博愛
Desks
own scale
台新-高雄摩根大通新加坡商瑞銀群益金鼎
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 台灣摩根士丹利 +16,889
    sold 16%· still adding
  • 統一 +6,194
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 台新證券 +2,937
    sold 9%
  • 國泰-敦南 +2,843
    sold 16%
  • 花旗環球 +2,397
    sold 3%· still adding
  • 凱基 +1,846
    sold 7%

Distributing

  • 富邦證券 359 left
    sold 84%· paused recently
  • 國票-天祥 184 left
    sold 88%· paused recently
  • 國票證券 317 left
    sold 69%· paused recently
  • 合庫-台南 129 left
    sold 87%· paused recently
  • 中國信託-永康 461 left
    sold 37%· paused recently
  • 元大-博愛 258 left
    sold 60%· paused recently

Desks

  • 台新-高雄 -29,889
    unclassified
  • 摩根大通 -24,758
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 新加坡商瑞銀 -13,802
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 群益金鼎 -12,945
    unclassified
Still selling 1,034 lots ~240 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +9,874 absorbed / -818 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -31,791 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Weak direction: big-holder share fell while retail share rose.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 199.6%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

72 historical occurrences (since 2011-10-05)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 40.6%, Sample 64, Median -0.32%, Excess -0.54%, Beat mkt rate 42.2%；60-day: Win 57.8%, Sample 64, Median +1.25%, Excess -0.1%, Beat mkt rate 37.5%；120-day: Win 60.9%, Sample 64, Median +2.01%, Excess -0.84%, Beat mkt rate 50%

120 days after: historical avg +2.93%

20-day -0.29%
60-day +0.97%
120-day +2.93%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
40.6%
57.8%
60.9%
Sample
64
64
64
Median
-0.32%
+1.25%
+2.01%
Excess
-0.54%
-0.1%
-0.84%
Beat mkt rate
42.2%
37.5%
50%

Over 64 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 2.93%, lagged the market by 0.84 pts; win rate 60.9%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 549+11.3% +10.4% 80.1% -6.1%
20-40 506+6% +6.7% 76.5% -6%
40-60 497+14.3% +9.1% 82.3% -8.6%
60-80 442+12.6% +8.4% 85.3% -17.1%
80-100 You are here598+14.9% +6.1% 69.9% +5.9%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 26.34, at the 99.4th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
+8.6%
Win rate 67.1% Excess +0.4%
480d
+11.9%
Win rate 65.5% Excess +2.1%
568d
+2.1%
Win rate 62.9% Excess -7.7%
652d
60-day momentum down
+10.8%
Win rate 76.9% Excess +0.3%
471d
+4.1%
Win rate 57.8% Excess -6.2%
223d
Now
+3.2%
Win rate 67.6% Excess +0.4%
318d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum down”: across 318 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 3.2%, win rate 67.6%, beat the market by 0.4%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

27 times historically; 60-day forward avg +6.62%, win rate 59.3%, beating the market by +1.82 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

65 times historically; 60-day forward avg +2.65%, win rate 57.8%, beating the market by -0.7 pts on average.

What does 可寧衛* do? Company profile

綠能環保 上市

Overview

可寧衛股份有限公司，原名岡聯可寧衛股份有限公司，統一編號16908140，成立於1999年5月4日，上市日期為2011年10月5日，總部位於高雄市岡山區中山南路308號1樓。董事長為楊慶祥，總經理為楊永發，發言人為陳聰田，代理發言人為洪秉承。公司主要經營環境服務、循環經濟、雲端智能管理與再生能源。依公開股市資料，2026年6月中旬實收資本額約新台幣13.57億元、已發行普通股約13.57億股；公司2025年年報則揭露截至2026年3月29日可轉債轉換普通股220,595,780股尚未辦理變更登記，故股本數字會因登記與轉換時點而有差異。2025年年報揭露員工人數為478人，2026年3月29日為512人。2026年3月29日主要股東包含爾承持股8.39%、岡聯企業4.07%、群益台灣精選高息ETF基金專戶2.40%、喬治楊2.27%、楊慶祥2.23%、復華台灣科技優息ETF基金專戶2.22%、和倉事業1.92%、長華電材1.11%、維和興業1.07%、豪大事業1.07%。公司為台灣少數具甲級有害事業廢棄物固化處理、清運與最終掩埋整合能力的業者，並透過大寧、吉衛、大倉、上評資源循環、大創綠能、大源、吉信等子公司或轉投資布局掩埋、再生紙、再生能源、再生粒料、焚化爐BOT等業務。

Business

公司商業模式以事業廢棄物一站式清除、處理、固化、掩埋、污染場址整治與資源化服務收費為核心，並逐步擴大至再生紙、預拌混凝土、太陽能發電、SRF發電、低碳混凝土與都市焚化爐BOT營運。2025年合併營收淨額為新台幣4,779,815仟元，營收結構為廢棄物固化及開挖服務1,756,103仟元、36.74%；廢棄物掩埋服務1,581,560仟元、33.09%；廢棄物清運服務130,490仟元、2.73%；再生紙銷售415,423仟元、8.69%；預拌混凝土銷售229,450仟元、4.80%；太陽能發電605,190仟元、12.66%；其他61,599仟元、1.29%。主要服務項目包含將含重金屬污泥、鋼鐵業集塵灰、都市垃圾焚化爐飛灰、石綿廢棄物等有害廢棄物固化為安定化製品；將安定化製品或一般事業廢棄物送至掩埋場最終處置；提供甲級廢棄物清運；承接非法棄置場址與土壤地下水污染控制場址整治；以100%回收廢紙生產灰紙板、牛皮紙、電子紙等工業用紙；以及在場區、已封場掩埋場與漁電型太陽能電廠發電。主要客戶依年報描述包括政府機關、鋼鐵產業、電子產業、光電產業、石化產業、都市焚化爐相關業者與電力採購端；2025年因高雄市政府土壤整治標案使第一大客戶占營收26.31%，另因售電收入提升，台電成為主要客戶之一。公司競爭優勢在於月固化許可量15,250公噸，遠高於年報列示同業中台資源科技一廠500公噸/月，且具清運、固化、掩埋與數位全履歷管理整合能力。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025年公司營收年減7.53%至47.80億元，但因固化收入大幅增加、開挖收入與成本結構改變，營業毛利與營業淨利提升；2025年營業淨利為19.40億元，年增約5.01億元。2026年公司展望重點為多元環境解方落地：大承循環再生粒料廠與吉鼎材料CLSM低強度混凝土產線正式投產，年報預期商轉後新增全年約100,000公噸再利用許可量；高雄市南區都市焚化爐舊廠營運正式接手並啟動新廠興建；上評資源汽電共生鍋爐穩定運作；大創綠能推動高雄彌陀二期太陽能案場；大源觀音SRF發電廠工程依計畫推進，年報預計於2026年底前完工。財經媒體引述公司與法人觀點指出，2026年205專案貢獻估與2025年相近，南區BOT可挹注營收，全年合併營收有機會小幅年增；另有法人先前估計2026年營收可望受小港焚化爐操作、大承循環再生粒料、可寧衛能源等挹注而成長，但高毛利整治與石綿專案金額若下降，淨利成長幅度可能低於營收。2027至2028年較關鍵的中長期動能包括高雄AI智慧高效焚化爐BOT案持續建置與代操作、新廠完工後的垃圾處理與售電收入、SRF發電、再生粒料與CLSM去化、太陽能與沼氣發電、廢棄物資源化，以及以大云平台強化廢棄物流向透明化。主要風險包括：政府標案與大型整治案具階段性造成營收波動；國內廢棄物市場受法規、許可、地方抗爭與鄰避設施限制影響；SRF與焚化爐BOT需面對工程進度、行政爭訟、資本支出與環評/地方溝通風險；再生紙景氣與訂單流失可能影響上評資源循環；碳費、能源價格、氣候災害、環保裁罰與工安事故也會影響成本與營運穩定。2027至2028具體營收與獲利數字未見公司正式財測，以上為依年報營業計畫、法說/媒體報導與專案期程整理之研究判斷。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 中聯、興成發、頌新等水泥供應商 年報列為水泥主要供應來源；年報未揭完整法人名稱與上市櫃身分，故不填股票代號。
  • 皇亦、廣豐等砂石供應商 年報列為砂石主要供應來源，供應狀況良好穩定；未確認為台股上市櫃公司。
  • 優利久 年報列為固化劑供應商，為有害廢棄物固化處理的重要投入品；未確認為台股上市櫃公司。
  • 頊晏 年報列為太空袋供應商，用於廢棄物收集、包裝或處理流程；未確認為台股上市櫃公司。
  • 祥瑞、喬旭 年報列為氯化亞鐵供應商，供應狀況良好穩定；未確認為台股上市櫃公司。
  • 第一資源、輝彰、台利達、仕宏行、享鑫等回收紙板供應商 供應上評資源循環再生紙業務所需瓦楞紙板；2025年無單一供應商占進貨10%以上。
  • 柴油供應商 柴油為清運車隊與重機具營運投入品，年報列供應狀況良好穩定，但未揭具體公司名稱。
Downstream
  • 高雄市政府 政府機關，非上市櫃公司；2025年因土壤整治標案，使相關客戶成為第一大銷貨客戶，且公司參與高雄市AI智慧高效焚化爐BOT案。
  • 台灣電力公司 國營事業，非上市櫃公司；因太陽能等售電收入提升，年報說明台電躍升為2025年主要客戶之一。
  • 國內公民營都市垃圾焚化爐與代操作業者 下游或委託處理來源，產生含重金屬飛灰、底渣等需固化與掩埋之廢棄物；多數非台股上市櫃或年報未揭個別名稱。
  • 鋼鐵產業客戶 年報指出主要銷貨客戶對象包含鋼鐵產業，來源包含電弧爐集塵灰、含重金屬污泥等；年報未揭個別客戶名稱。
  • 電子、光電與石化產業客戶 年報指出主要客戶包含電子、光電、石化產業，需求為有害事業廢棄物清運、固化、掩埋與污染整治服務；年報未揭個別客戶名稱。
  • 再生紙與工業用紙客戶 購買灰紙板、牛皮紙、電子紙等工業用紙產品；2025年紙業景氣較差與客戶訂單流失使相關原料進貨下降。
  • 預拌混凝土與低碳建材客戶 購買預拌混凝土、CLSM或未來再生粒料相關產品；屬循環經濟與終端去化管道，年報未揭個別客戶名稱。

Competitors

  • 中台資源科技股份有限公司 6923 台股上市公司；年報列為民營固化廠同業，一廠固化處理許可量500公噸/月，另具焚化、化學處理等資源循環能力；同時也是可寧衛重要轉投資。
  • 台灣鋼聯股份有限公司 6581 台股上市公司；主要處理電弧爐集塵灰並回收粗氧化鋅，與可寧衛在鋼鐵業集塵灰、重金屬廢棄物處理與資源化領域部分競合。
  • 永源化工原料股份有限公司 未上市公司；年報提及電子業與印刷電路板業含銅污染主要由永源化工及其他再利用機構回收處理，屬重金屬污泥資源化相關競爭者。
  • 日友環保科技股份有限公司 8341 台股上市公司；醫療廢棄物與事業廢棄物處理業者，與可寧衛同屬環保廢棄物處理產業，但業務重心不同。
  • 崑鼎投資控股股份有限公司 6803 台股上市公司；以焚化爐營運管理、資源循環與機電維運為主，可寧衛切入高雄南區焚化爐BOT後，兩者在都市焚化爐營運與能源回收領域形成比較對象。
  • 中聯資源股份有限公司 9930 台股上市公司；高爐石粉、資源再利用與綠建材相關業者，與可寧衛在循環經濟、低碳建材與工業副產物資源化領域部分競合。
  • 萬年清環境工程股份有限公司 6624 台股上櫃公司；水處理與環境工程業者，與可寧衛同屬環境工程/環保服務產業，業務重疊度較固化掩埋同業低。
  • 基士德科技股份有限公司 6641 台股上市公司；水處理與環保工程設備服務商，與可寧衛同列綠能環保族群，但核心業務不同。
Sources（14）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.