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Help me set up FinLab and analyze 1326 台化. Please read: https://finlab.finance/en/setup?stock=1326
1326
steady quality, premium valuation, no active signal today.
Is 台化 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first
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Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 41th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 1.6%.
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Valuation is high.PE is in the 97th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 95th percentile.
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Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 9.9% of volume (net buy).
Chip flow
Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +54% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12
- Largest holder 新加坡商瑞銀 has accumulated 43,165 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
- Main distributor 元大證券 peaked at 14,410 lots, has sold 37%, 9,032 left, ~1613 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
- TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +1.17pp, mid holders +23, retail -1.21pp — concentration shifting upward.
- Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -16,548 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Accumulating
- 新加坡商瑞銀 +43,165
- 摩根大通 +36,730
- 國泰證券 +36,042
- 台灣摩根士丹利 +35,813
- 花旗環球 +27,430
- 美商高盛 +18,453
Distributing
- 元大證券 9,032 left
- 美林 7,604 left
- 中國信託 958 left
- 統一 3,751 left
- 台新證券 455 left
- 元富-台中 480 left
Desks
- 元大-板橋 -20,088
- 兆豐證券 -10,358
- 華南永昌 -9,762
- 凱基 -9,671
Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.
Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.
Historical evidence
Valuation regime and subsequent returns
Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.
| PE percentile band | Sample days | 240-day avg return | Median | Win rate | Avg excess (vs index) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20 | 323 | -3.4% | -10.2% | 18.9% | -6.7% |
| 20-40 | 735 | +7.3% | +6.3% | 66% | -2.3% |
| 40-60 | 485 | -5.1% | -6.7% | 33% | -22.3% |
| 60-80 | 607 | +5.9% | +1.9% | 55.4% | -15% |
| 80-100 You are here | 532 | -10.3% | +1% | 50.8% | -35.9% |
Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.
Current PE ≈ 358.0, at the 95.4th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).
Valuation × momentum historical grid
Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.
Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 475 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 3%, win rate 50.7%, lagged the market by 6.4%.
Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.
Signals not active (historical stats for reference)
These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.
252-day price high (breakout)
PendingAdjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.
33 times historically; 60-day forward avg +5.06%, win rate 67.7%, beating the market by +1.4 pts on average.
Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)
PendingMonthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).
61 times historically; 60-day forward avg +1.18%, win rate 49%, beating the market by +0.74 pts on average.
Foreign net buying for 5 straight days
PendingForeign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.
74 times historically; 60-day forward avg +0.22%, win rate 50.7%, beating the market by -3.58 pts on average.
What does 台化 do? Company profile
Overview
台化成立於民國54年（1965年）3月5日，總部位於台北市，主要生產基地分布於彰化、嘉義、雲林麥寮、宜蘭龍德等地，於1984年12月20日在台灣證券交易所掛牌上市。為台塑企業（台塑集團）核心成員之一，與台塑（1301）、南亞（1303）、台塑化（6505）並稱「台塑四寶」。實收資本額約新台幣586億元（約58,611,862,910元，已發行普通股約58.6億股）。董事長為洪福源（2021年7月自王文淵手中接任，為台化資深經理人），總經理為呂文進。主要股東為台塑集團內部交叉持股結構（台塑、南亞與相關投資公司互相持股），且台化與台塑、台塑化同為記憶體廠南亞科（2408）的大股東之一。公司並轉投資福懋興業（1434，持股約37.4%）、台塑石化、台朔重工、台化出光石化等多家關係企業。員工規模合併計約數千人（彰化廠現約近千人及協力廠商數百人，全集團人力龐大）。
Business
台化為台塑集團內景氣循環連動性最高的石化中游製造商，營收與獲利已由傳統化纖轉向石化原料與塑膠為主，化纖占比降至個位數。產品三大主軸：（1）芳香烴／石化原料：苯、甲苯、鄰二甲苯、間二甲苯、對二甲苯（PX）、純對苯二甲酸（PTA）、純間苯二甲酸（PIA），約占營收三成（約30.7%）；（2）苯乙烯系與酚酮：苯乙烯單體（SM）、合成酚、丙酮，約占近三成（約28%）；（3）工程與通用塑膠：ABS樹脂、PS聚苯乙烯、PP聚丙烯、PC聚碳酸酯、PC/ABS、SAN、ASA等，約占逾兩成（約22.4%）；其餘為化學纖維（嫘縈棉、尼龍6粒、聚酯絲／長纖、加工絲、機能性紗）與公用事業（蒸汽、電力）。商業模式為以石化一貫廠規模量產原料與中間體，垂直供應集團內（南亞、台塑化等）與外部下游客戶。終端應用涵蓋家電、汽車、3C電子、建材、紡織成衣、寶特瓶與包裝等。近一兩年合併營收受景氣與油價影響波動：2023年約3,326億元、2024年約3,486億元、稅後淨利約11.2億元；2025年受油價下跌、關稅與中國產能過剩衝擊，全年由盈轉虧，稅後虧損約54.9億元、每股虧損約0.94元。
Outlook 2025–2028
2025年為景氣谷底，石化／塑膠受中國新增產能過剩、紅海競爭、油價下跌與美中關稅影響，全年虧損。展望2026至2028年具落底回升動能：（1）供需結構改善——2026年起中國PX、PTA、SM新增產能趨緩，南韓亦規劃削減部分石化產能，加上中國PTA庫存去化，PX／PTA價差出現改善跡象；油價回穩帶動產品報價上行，2026年第一季營業毛利、稅前已轉正（單季營業毛利回升約62億元、稅前約73億元），全年可望轉虧為盈。（2）高值化與差異化——公司推動產品結構升級、彈性歲修與產能調度，避開低毛利紅海，並切入高附加價值材料。（3）AI新動能——自主研發阻燃級PC材料，搶攻AI伺服器電池備援系統（BBU）關鍵零組件市場，目標全球市占約三成，為傳產轉型AI供應鏈的題材。（4）ESG與數位化——推動2030年減碳25%目標，導入生成式AI提升營運效率。主要風險與挑戰：國際油價與原料價格波動、中國／東北亞石化產能過剩與殺價競爭、終端ABS／PS需求疲弱、地緣政治與關稅、新台幣匯率波動，以及高值化新材料放量速度與認證時程的不確定性。
Supply Chain
- 台塑石化（台塑化） 6505 集團內煉油與輕油裂解廠，供應石腦油（naphtha）、乙烯、丙烯、芳香烴原料等上游基礎原料
- 台塑（台灣塑膠） 1301 集團關係企業，供應部分基礎石化原料並有交叉持股與一貫化整合關係
- 國際原油／石腦油供應商 進口原油與石腦油等原料，多為國際油商（非台股掛牌）
- 福懋興業 1434 台化轉投資（持股約37.4%）之紡織加工廠，採用其化纖／聚酯原料生產織物
- 南亞（南亞塑膠） 1303 集團內下游，採購PTA／芳香烴等中間體加工為聚酯、塑膠製品
- 聚酯／PTA下游纖維廠 1402 遠東新等聚酯纖維與寶特瓶廠，採購PTA／PX作為原料（下游應用）
- 家電、3C、汽車與建材製造商 ABS／PS／PC／PC-ABS之終端應用客戶，含電子、家電、汽車內外飾與建材業者（多為下游製造商，部分未上市或國外）
- AI伺服器／BBU模組廠 阻燃級PC材料供應AI資料中心電池備援單元（BBU）外殼／結構件之潛在新興客戶
Competitors
- 奇美實業 全球主要ABS／PS／PMMA／PC廠，台灣大型塑膠與橡膠材料供應商（未上市）
- 國喬石化 1312 苯乙烯（SM）、PS、ABS等苯乙烯系產品同業
- 台達化工 1309 苯乙烯系塑膠（PS／EPS等）同業
- 遠東新世紀 1402 聚酯纖維／PTA下游與化纖領域同業競爭者
- 新纖（新光合成纖維） 1409 聚酯化纖、薄膜與工程塑料同業
- LG化學、INEOS Styrolution等國際大廠 ABS／SM／PC等領域之國際競爭對手（國外上市）
- 中國石化系與東北亞PX／PTA廠 芳香烴（PX／PTA）大宗產能競爭者，2024-2025年產能過剩主要來源（非台股掛牌）
Sources（12）
This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.
Method and limitations
- All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
- Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
- Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
- Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
- Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.
This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.