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1409

新纖 Textiles As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

steady quality, fair valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 新纖 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 66Quality 56Growth 77Momentum 91Chips 70

Is 新纖 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 64th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 1.7%.

  • Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 47th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 83th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 3.2% of volume (net buy).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 35.1%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.65
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 台灣摩根士丹利 holds 13,198 lots
  • sellers have 21,995 lots left, ~148 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +77% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 台灣摩根士丹利 has accumulated 13,198 lots since the start (sold 11%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 凱基-台北 peaked at 18,599 lots, has sold 28%, 13,300 left, ~25 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +3.09pp, mid holders +9, retail -3.18pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -1,693 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
台灣摩根士丹利元富-城東國票證券富邦證券凱基-內湖元大-八德
Distributing
凱基-台北美商高盛摩根大通新加坡商瑞銀美林富邦-三重
Desks
own scale
元大-六合台新-松江港商野村兆豐-民生
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 台灣摩根士丹利 +13,198
    sold 11%· still adding
  • 元富-城東 +3,424
    sold 1%
  • 國票證券 +3,272
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 富邦證券 +3,236
    sold 22%· still adding
  • 凱基-內湖 +2,037
    sold 0%
  • 元大-八德 +1,887
    sold 0%

Distributing

  • 凱基-台北 13,300 left
    sold 28%· ~25 sessions to clear
  • 美商高盛 1,168 left
    sold 85%· ~5 sessions to clear
  • 摩根大通 2,344 left
    sold 47%· ~19 sessions to clear
  • 新加坡商瑞銀 1,804 left
    sold 39%· ~24 sessions to clear
  • 美林 880 left
    sold 66%· paused recently
  • 富邦-三重 1,317 left
    sold 28%· ~26 sessions to clear

Desks

  • 元大-六合 -3,769
    unclassified
  • 台新-松江 -1,526
    unclassified
  • 港商野村 -1,508
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 兆豐-民生 -1,408
    unclassified
Still selling 21,995 lots ~148 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +15,471 absorbed / -11,892 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -1,508 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 35.13%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

54 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 60%, Sample 45, Median +1.3%, Excess +1.44%, Beat mkt rate 44.4%；60-day: Win 54.5%, Sample 44, Median +1.64%, Excess +2.69%, Beat mkt rate 50%；120-day: Win 45.5%, Sample 44, Median -2.02%, Excess +0.78%, Beat mkt rate 47.7%

120 days after: historical avg +3.73%

20-day +2.68%
60-day +4.75%
120-day +3.73%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
60%
54.5%
45.5%
Sample
45
44
44
Median
+1.3%
+1.64%
-2.02%
Excess
+1.44%
+2.69%
+0.78%
Beat mkt rate
44.4%
50%
47.7%

Over 44 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 3.73%, beat the market by 0.78 pts; win rate 45.5%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 898+12.3% 0% 50% -5.5%
20-40 694+14.2% +1.3% 51.7% -0.4%
40-60 435+15.9% +13.6% 94.9% +0.4%
60-80 643+7.1% +7.3% 76.4% -11.1%
80-100 You are here368+3.1% +2.5% 55.7% -11.4%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 20.7, at the 83.0th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
+8.2%
Win rate 47.1% Excess +1.8%
856d
+6.9%
Win rate 62.6% Excess -0.5%
417d
Now
+1.6%
Win rate 56.9% Excess -10.8%
489d
60-day momentum down
+5.3%
Win rate 64.2% Excess -1.8%
601d
+7.6%
Win rate 59.7% Excess -3.3%
414d
+2.9%
Win rate 66.4% Excess -5.3%
381d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 489 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 1.6%, win rate 56.9%, lagged the market by 10.8%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

21 times historically; 60-day forward avg +5.7%, win rate 57.9%, beating the market by +1.82 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

62 times historically; 60-day forward avg +2.32%, win rate 54.8%, beating the market by -1.47 pts on average.

What does 新纖 do? Company profile

紡織纖維（聚酯／合成纖維、聚酯薄膜、工程塑膠、半導體特用化學品） 上市（台灣證券交易所 TWSE）

Overview

新光合成纖維股份有限公司（簡稱新纖），新光集團核心成員之一。1967年4月25日由吳火獅等企業家發起設立，1973年8月31日於台灣證券交易所掛牌上市（代號1409）。總部位於台北市大安區仁愛路三段136號5樓。現任董事長為吳東昇（創辦人吳火獅三子），總經理歐金達，發言人許毓麟。實收資本額約新台幣161.84億元，已發行股數約16.18億股。股權相對分散，股東人數約14.2萬人、前十大股東持股約6.28%、外資持股約14.21%，主要股東為新光集團相關家族與法人。產業歸類為紡織纖維。

Business

新纖為台灣老牌「聚酯一條龍」廠，產品橫跨聚酯粒、纖維、薄膜到工程塑膠。依公開資料約略區分三大事業群：(1) 聚酯事業部（約占營收69%）—聚酯粒（PET chips，含瓶用、纖維用與再生rPET）、聚酯纖維及假撚加工絲；(2) 光電事業部（約占20%）—PET聚酯薄膜／光學膜，應用於顯示器面板、背光模組與包裝；(3) 金融證券部（約占10%）—轉投資金融證券等收益（與新光集團相關）。近年積極轉型高附加價值領域：發展耐高溫、低介電損耗、尺寸穩定的高階工程塑膠，切入AI伺服器連接器、高速通訊與車用電子；並透過持股約43.63%的子公司「新碩先進化工」與比利時Solvay（蘇威／索爾維）合資，於台南生產Grade 5電子級高純度雙氧水（過氧化氫），第一期年產能約4萬噸，就近供應台灣晶圓代工大廠。另推動環保rPET回收聚酯（泰國廠已取得多國FDA認證），並設立「新光InnovHub」無人機青創創新基地與「新昕資本」「蓋亞資本」創投平台。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025年歸屬母公司淨利約19.22億元、年增約12.7%，EPS約1.19元，創近三年最佳；2026年初營收動能強勁（4月營收約40.79億元、年增約25%，5月約43.74億元、年增約35%）。成長動能：①AI伺服器帶動工程塑膠需求—董事長吳東昇指一台AI伺服器機櫃重達約1.5噸，若20%改採工程塑膠件即為「史詩級」結構性商機，公司已切入連接器與散熱風扇等塑膠件；②半導體特化—電子級雙氧水隨晶圓廠擴產而放量、產能利用率提升並持續擴產，已有多家客戶導入；③循環材料—rPET受2026世界盃、2028洛杉磯奧運及國際運動品牌循環材料需求帶動；④光學膜／PET薄膜。風險與挑戰：上游石化原料（PTA、MEG、PX）與國際油價波動、中東地緣政治（美伊衝突、荷莫茲海峽風險）推升成本與供應斷鏈疑慮、傳統聚酯產業供過於求與中國低價競爭、新事業放量時程與認證不確定性；公司已啟動全面風險控管機制。（2027–2028年屬延伸推估。）

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 東聯化學 1710 上游石化原料供應商，供應乙二醇（MEG）等聚酯主原料
  • 台灣化學纖維（台化） 1326 上游PTA（純對苯二甲酸）／PX（對二甲苯）等石化原料供應來源（同時亦為纖維同業）
  • 台灣塑膠（台塑） 1301 石化原料與工程塑膠相關原料供應來源（推估，亦為工程塑膠領域競爭者）
  • 中美和石油化學 PTA重要供應商，未上市（中油等轉投資合資公司）
  • 台灣中油 上游石化基礎原料供應，國營未上市
  • Solvay（蘇威／索爾維） 半導體電子級雙氧水合資技術夥伴（與子公司新碩先進合資），比利時／海外上市
Downstream
  • 台積電（晶圓代工大廠） 2330 下游客戶，透過子公司新碩先進供應半導體製程用電子級高純度雙氧水（客戶名稱未經公司正式揭露，屬推估）
  • 友達光電 2409 下游面板／顯示器客戶，採用PET聚酯薄膜／光學膜（推估）
  • 群創光電 6116 下游面板／顯示器客戶，採用PET聚酯薄膜／光學膜（推估）
  • AI伺服器／連接器及散熱零組件廠 下游應用客戶，採用高階耐高溫工程塑膠件，具體客戶未公開
  • 國際運動品牌與紡織成衣廠（如Nike、adidas等） 下游應用，採用rPET再生聚酯與聚酯纖維，多為海外或未掛牌
  • 飲料／食品包裝廠 下游應用，採用瓶用聚酯粒（PET），客戶眾多多未掛牌

Competitors

Sources（13）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.