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Help me set up FinLab and analyze 1524 耿鼎. Please read: https://finlab.finance/en/setup?stock=1524
1524
steady quality, fair valuation, no active signal today.
Is 耿鼎 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first
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Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 78th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 3.0%.
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Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 43th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 71th percentile.
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Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 1.3% of volume (net buy).
Chip flow
Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -17% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12
- Largest holder 新光 has accumulated 907 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
- Main distributor 凱基-台北 peaked at 713 lots, has sold 42%, 416 left, paused recently.
- TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +0.60pp, mid holders -1, retail +0.41pp — concentration shifting upward.
- Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -160 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Accumulating
- 新光 +907
- 美林 +436
- 新加坡商瑞銀 +393
- 國泰-敦南 +382
- 元大-民生三民 +280
- 摩根大通 +274
Distributing
- 凱基-台北 416 left
- 美商高盛 193 left
- 元大-內湖民權 80 left
- 凱基-桃園 114 left
- 元大-大甲 41 left
- 元大-南京 45 left
Desks
- 華南永昌 -657
- 華南永昌-彰化 -526
- 第一金-新興 -352
- 元大-豐原站前 -272
Mixed direction: big-holder and retail changes are not aligned.
Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.
Historical evidence
Valuation regime and subsequent returns
Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.
| PE percentile band | Sample days | 240-day avg return | Median | Win rate | Avg excess (vs index) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20 | 301 | +0.1% | +0.3% | 53.2% | -28.3% |
| 20-40 | 179 | +4.4% | -0.9% | 42.5% | -20.3% |
| 40-60 | 588 | +18.9% | +23.8% | 69.2% | -10.1% |
| 60-80 You are here | 431 | +69.8% | +22.5% | 92.3% | +56.9% |
| 80-100 | 182 | +31.3% | +8.3% | 64.8% | +21.5% |
Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.
Current PE ≈ 19.57, at the 71.3th percentile of its own history (60-80 band).
Valuation × momentum historical grid
Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.
Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 345 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 33.8%, win rate 79.4%, beat the market by 27.2%.
Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.
Signals not active (historical stats for reference)
These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.
252-day price high (breakout)
PendingAdjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.
23 times historically; 60-day forward avg +4.89%, win rate 43.5%, beating the market by +1.89 pts on average.
Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)
PendingMonthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).
35 times historically; 60-day forward avg +7.61%, win rate 51.7%, beating the market by +6.86 pts on average.
Foreign net buying for 5 straight days
PendingForeign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.
50 times historically; 60-day forward avg +6.67%, win rate 54.2%, beating the market by +3.25 pts on average.
What does 耿鼎 do? Company profile
Overview
耿鼎企業股份有限公司為營運公司普通股，成立於1986年3月13日，總部及主要廠區位於桃園市蘆竹區內溪路48號，股票於1997年上櫃、1998年10月30日正式上市。公司主要專注汽車售後維修AM市場鈑金件開發與製造。董事長兼總經理為李茂源；公司說明會揭露資本額約新台幣16.53億元、已發行普通股165,310,397股，員工469人（2025年4月），工廠面積約2萬坪。2024年報列示主要股東（2025年4月18日）包括方建春7.55%、李茂源7.40%、李王秀慧4.16%、昭輝實業3.78%、禾翰投資3.66%、謝綺雲3.31%、花旗託管瑞銀歐洲SE投資專戶2.64%、儒翰投資1.91%、林詩芸1.56%、李雅勳1.34%。2024年營收30.156億元、EPS 3.61元；公司2025年12月簡報揭露2025年前三季營收19.224億元、EPS 1.28元；第三方資料顯示2025全年營收約26.30億元、2026年前5月累計營收約9.70億元、2026年第1季EPS 0.53元。
Business
耿鼎的核心商業模式是開發、製造並銷售汽車售後維修市場（AM）碰撞鈑金零件，主要產品為引擎蓋、葉子板、車門、水箱架及其他鈑金件，並有模具加工等相關收入。2024年度營業比重為汽車零件收入99.14%、加工收入0.86%；公司簡報指出引擎蓋與葉子板為兩大主力產品。銷售區域方面，2024年報揭露美國約40.61%、歐洲約14.48%、其他地區約11.15%、台灣約37.51%，但台灣銷售大多再轉出口，因此實質終端仍以海外AM市場為主。製程包含進料、沖壓、組合及鈑金、塗裝、入庫；模具開發能力是競爭核心。公司通過CAPA、Thatcham、TUV、NSF等認證，2025年12月簡報揭露北美CAPA鈑金件認證項目達1202件；2024年報另揭露截至2025年4月1日CAPA鈑金件認證1231項、Thatcham/TUV認證258項。主要客戶在年報中以代號揭露，2024年度前兩大銷貨客戶A、B分別占銷貨淨額20.48%、16.09%，未揭露實名；終端應用為汽車事故維修、保險理賠維修、汽車維修廠及AM零件經銷通路。
Outlook 2025–2028
2025至2028年展望以AM碰撞件滲透率、認證件數、模具投資及區域拓展為主軸。成長動能包括：一、全球汽車保有量與平均車齡提高，帶動售後維修需求；二、AM碰撞件價格低於OEM件，保險公司為降低理賠成本更傾向使用經認證AM件；三、公司累積大量模具與CAPA、Thatcham/TUV認證，有利於北美及歐洲市場接單；四、公司長期發展計畫包含提升北美銷售量、提高歐洲車款模具開發資本預算、拓展南美洲、中東及中國大陸等新興市場；五、2024年報揭露2025年預計銷售量汽車零件合計320萬件，且2025至2028年相關模具設備資本支出預估可每年增加汽車鈑金零件生產量19萬件、銷售值3.8億元、毛利1.14億元。主要風險包括：國內外AM鈑金競爭廠商多造成售價壓力；模具開發成本高、工期長；鋼板等原物料價格波動；貨櫃航運與交期風險；匯率變動；地緣政治及美國政策不確定性；2025年下半年及2026年第1季已見營收與獲利較2024高峰放緩，顯示需求、匯率或產品組合仍可能影響短中期獲利。
Supply Chain
- 中國鋼鐵股份有限公司 2002 主要鋼板來源；年報揭露耿鼎自1990年第二季起與中鋼簽訂契約取得直接供料配額，並每季向中鋼購買冷軋鋼板及鍍鋅鋼板。
- 國內其他鋼板供應商 未具名供應商；年報表示除中鋼配額外，其餘鋼鈑由國內其他廠商供應，供應狀況良好。
- 模具、沖壓、塗裝及量測設備供應商 支援模具開發、沖壓、鈑金、塗裝與檢測製程；公司揭露使用CNC、五面加工中心、三次元量測、CAD/CAE/CAM、光學掃描等設備，但未逐一揭露供應商名稱。
- 協力加工廠商 年報稱協力廠商配合程度良好、物料供應穩定；未揭露具體公司名稱。
- 北美AM汽車零件進口商與經銷商 主要銷售通路之一；公司以美國為最大海外銷售區域，2024年美國銷售占比約40.61%。
- 歐洲AM汽車零件經銷與維修通路 主要成長市場；公司透過Thatcham/TUV認證強化歐洲市場拓展，2024年歐洲銷售占比約14.48%。
- 汽車維修廠及保險理賠維修體系 終端應用端，使用AM碰撞鈑金件進行事故維修與保險理賠維修。
- State Farm 美國保險公司，非台股掛牌；年報提及北美State Farm使用售後碰撞零件，是AM件需求與保險理賠端的重要驅動因素，未確認為耿鼎直接客戶。
- 中國平安財險 中國保險公司，非台股掛牌；公司沿革提及耿鼎是第一家獲中國平安財險支持的NSF認證汽車後市場鈑金配件公司，屬認證與保險理賠生態關係，未確認為直接客戶。
Competitors
- 東陽 1319 台股上市汽車AM零組件大廠，產品涵蓋塑膠件、鈑金件等，MoneyDJ列為耿鼎在AM副廠鈑金項目的主要台灣競爭者。
- 瑞利 1512 台股上市汽車車體及鈑金相關廠商，MoneyDJ列為耿鼎在AM副廠鈑金項目的主要台灣競爭者。
- 堤維西 1522 台股上市汽車燈具AM零組件廠，產品別與耿鼎鈑金件不同但同屬台灣汽車售後市場供應鏈，為相鄰競爭／替代供應商。
- 大億 1521 台股上市汽車燈具廠，與耿鼎非完全同品類，但同屬汽車零組件與維修替換件供應鏈。
- 昭輝 1339 台股上市汽車零組件廠，同時為耿鼎主要股東之一；在汽車AM零組件市場具相鄰競爭關係。
- 西班牙、義大利AM鈑金供應商 非台股掛牌；耿鼎年報提及歐洲較具規模的AM供應廠商位於西班牙與義大利，但未列具體公司名稱。
Sources（10）
This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.
Method and limitations
- All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
- Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
- Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
- Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
- Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.
This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.