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1723

中碳 Chemicals As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

steady quality, fair valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 中碳 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 41Quality 64Growth 86Momentum 54Chips 92

Is 中碳 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 73th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 2.2%.

  • Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 66th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 98th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 11.4% of volume (net buy).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 58.4%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.96
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 美商高盛 holds 2,304 lots
  • sellers have 299 lots left, ~113 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +22% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 美商高盛 has accumulated 2,304 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 台灣摩根士丹利 peaked at 625 lots, has sold 31%, 434 left, paused recently.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +1.75pp, mid holders +5, retail -2.44pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -201 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
美商高盛摩根大通統一-高雄凱基-台北新加坡商瑞銀統一
Distributing
台灣摩根士丹利兆豐證券元大-竹科花旗環球亞東元大-太平
Desks
own scale
永豐金-復興安泰凱基群益金鼎-建成
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 美商高盛 +2,304
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 摩根大通 +1,842
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 統一-高雄 +1,412
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 凱基-台北 +894
    sold 7%· still adding
  • 新加坡商瑞銀 +842
    sold 6%· still adding
  • 統一 +699
    sold 15%

Distributing

  • 台灣摩根士丹利 434 left
    sold 31%· paused recently
  • 兆豐證券 56 left
    sold 86%· paused recently
  • 元大-竹科 62 left
    sold 79%· ~62 sessions to clear
  • 花旗環球 113 left
    sold 55%· ~113 sessions to clear
  • 亞東 97 left
    sold 35%· ~29 sessions to clear
  • 元大-太平 31 left
    sold 71%· paused recently

Desks

  • 永豐金-復興 -1,240
    unclassified
  • 安泰 -279
    unclassified
  • 凱基 -258
    unclassified
  • 群益金鼎-建成 -247
    unclassified
Still selling 299 lots ~113 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +2,226 absorbed / -75 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -2 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 58.44%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

84 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 53.2%, Sample 77, Median +0.98%, Excess +1.64%, Beat mkt rate 53.2%；60-day: Win 60.5%, Sample 76, Median +1.72%, Excess +2.78%, Beat mkt rate 60.5%；120-day: Win 64.5%, Sample 76, Median +5.4%, Excess +4.96%, Beat mkt rate 60.5%

120 days after: historical avg +5.78%

20-day +1.81%
60-day +2.7%
120-day +5.78%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
53.2%
60.5%
64.5%
Sample
77
76
76
Median
+0.98%
+1.72%
+5.4%
Excess
+1.64%
+2.78%
+4.96%
Beat mkt rate
53.2%
60.5%
60.5%

Over 76 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 5.78%, beat the market by 4.96 pts; win rate 64.5%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 146+5% +4.9% 71.9% -17.2%
20-40 428-5.7% -7.1% 36.4% -31.8%
40-60 520-13.2% -14.1% 5.6% -38%
60-80 737-2% -3.5% 38.5% -17.4%
80-100 You are here1212+9% +11.6% 70.8% -0.4%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 35.12, at the 97.9th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
+4.2%
Win rate 92.5% Excess -7.1%
174d
-7.4%
Win rate 6.8% Excess -21.6%
234d
Now
+4.3%
Win rate 60.9% Excess -1.2%
1185d
60-day momentum down
+0.6%
Win rate 62.3% Excess -6.2%
244d
-9.7%
Win rate 8.7% Excess -19%
723d
+6.8%
Win rate 69.8% Excess -4.1%
603d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 1185 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 4.3%, win rate 60.9%, lagged the market by 1.2%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

30 times historically; 60-day forward avg +3.29%, win rate 56.7%, beating the market by +0.46 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

62 times historically; 60-day forward avg +1.27%, win rate 52.5%, beating the market by -2.5 pts on average.

What does 中碳 do? Company profile

化學工業／煤化學與碳材料 TWSE

Overview

1723 對應台灣證券交易所上市普通股「中碳」，公司全名為中鋼碳素化學股份有限公司，屬中鋼集團工業材料事業群子公司，為國內唯一煤化學工業公司，並已延伸至精碳材料、鋰電池負極材料與半導體用石墨材料。公司成立於1989年2月3日，1998年11月27日在台灣證券交易所掛牌上市；總部位於高雄市前鎮區成功二路88號25樓，煤化學生產工廠位於高雄小港臨海工業區，碳材料生產工廠位於屏東枋寮屏南工業區。官方與公開資訊顯示實收資本額為2,369,044,800元，普通股約236,904,480股；2025年年報刊印日前資料顯示中碳及子公司員工合計351人，母公司個體員工334人，ESG公司概況頁揭露員工333人，差異主要來自統計口徑與時間點。董事長為黃建智，官方年報內控聲明與Yahoo股市資料顯示總經理為方明達；部分第三方股市資料仍列曾文良，判斷可能為更新時間差。主要股東依2024年9月官方法說簡報截至2024年7月15日：中國鋼鐵29.04%、國際中橡投資控股4.96%、富邦人壽3.93%、景裕國際投資2.01%、志成德投資1.46%。

Business

中碳主要商業模式是向中鋼、中龍等一貫作業煉鋼廠取得煤焦油、粗輕油與細焦炭等煉焦副產品，經脫水、蒸餾、提純、加氫脫硫、篩選加工、碳化、石墨化與相關深加工後，銷售煤焦油系列、輕油系列、焦炭系列與精碳材料系列產品，並從事相關上下游產品貿易。2024年合併營收結構依官方年報：煤焦油及化學品系列53.20%、輕油及油品系列29.03%、焦炭系列6.62%、精碳材料系列9.72%、其他1.43%。主要產品包括軟瀝青、雜酚油、洗油、精萘、苯、甲苯、焦炭粉、介相碳微球、介相石墨碳微球、高比表面積先進碳材、精製瀝青、黏結碳粉、等方性石墨塊材與石墨電極代理銷售。用途方面，煤焦油系列用於鋁電解電極黏著劑、防蝕塗料填充料、染料中間體、防腐材料與碳黑原料；輕油系列用於苯乙烯、己內醯胺、酚、烷基苯與溶劑；焦炭系列用於石灰窯燃料或電爐煉鋼增碳劑；介相碳微球用於鋰離子電池負極材料與石墨塊材；高比表面積先進碳材用於超級電容器與鉛碳電池。2024年煤焦油與輕油產品銷售量分別約214,261噸與80,000噸，精碳產品約7,732噸。年報揭露2024年主要供應商為中鋼64%、中龍29%；主要銷貨客戶為KCMC 17%、林園先進13%、DALIAN 8%、其他62%。公司市場地位上，煤焦油蒸餾產品在國內具唯一供應商優勢，煤瀝青、雜酚油與精萘等國內替代性低；苯產品與石油苯互為替代，國內市占約4%。銷售地區涵蓋台灣、澳洲、中國大陸、日本、韓國、東南亞、南亞與比利時等，產品外銷比率約45%至50%。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025至2028年展望可分為傳統煤化學循環與新碳材料成長兩條主線。傳統煤化學方面，2025年受國際油價與苯價走弱、中國大陸石化與煤焦油深加工產能過剩、下游需求保守、外銷匯率波動影響，煤化學與輕油產品報價承壓；但中碳具中鋼與中龍穩定料源、國內唯一煤焦油蒸餾工廠、銷售通路穩定與連續製程經驗，若油價、苯價、鋼鐵煉焦量與碳黑需求回穩，煤焦油、雜酚油、苯與焦炭產品仍可提供現金流基礎。新材料方面，公司明確以「煤化學及碳材料雙主軸」轉型：鋰電池負極材料中，介相石墨碳微球已應用於24M半固態電池技術，官方法說資料稱為該技術唯一驗證合格負極材料，隨日本與另一主要客戶產線投產，2026年需求量有跳升可能；UF系列負極材料與多孔矽碳材料瞄準高階手機、儲能與車用電池。先進碳材料方面，AI伺服器電力備援系統BBU、超級電容、鋰離子電容器、先進鉛酸電池、智慧電網與UPS是不斷電及高功率放電應用的成長題材；公司2025年2月董事會通過500噸先進碳材料工廠擴建案，第一期預計2027年初完工，第二期預計2030年底完工，若客戶驗證與量產順利，2027至2028年可望逐步拉高精碳材料營收比重與毛利率。等方性石墨塊材方面，產品用於SiC長晶坩堝與工業熱場構件，國內自製供應有限，6吋坩堝已通過多次長晶驗證、8吋由多家廠商驗證中、12吋預計2026年完成開發；240噸等方性石墨塊材工廠預計2027年初完工，受惠中國高純石墨出口管制與非中供應鏈需求，2027至2028年有機會形成半導體材料新收入來源。主要風險包括：中國煤焦油深加工與負極材料產能過剩壓價、碳材料客戶驗證與量產時程遞延、擴廠投資回收不如預期、外銷船期與儲槽限制影響連續生產、台幣升值壓縮營收與毛利、油價與苯價波動、環保與碳排成本、半固態電池與SiC市場滲透速度不確定。2026至2028具體營收與獲利數字未見公司正式長期財測，以上為依公開法說、年報與產業趨勢所做的情境式推估。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 中國鋼鐵股份有限公司 2002 母公司與主要原料供應商；2024年供應中碳煤焦油、粗輕油、細焦炭等，年報列示進貨占比64%，同時持有中碳29.04%。
  • 中龍鋼鐵股份有限公司 中鋼集團兄弟公司，未上市；供應煤焦油與粗輕油，2024年年報列示進貨占比29%。
  • 台塑河靜鋼鐵興業責任有限公司 越南鋼鐵公司，非台股掛牌；2023年曾列為占進貨10%以上之其他關係人供應商，供應煉焦副產品相關原料。
  • 海外輕油供應商 年報稱粗輕油除由中鋼、中龍供應外，部分由國外進口，並可機動自澳洲、印度、印尼等地購入輕油；個別公司未公開揭露。
Downstream
  • KCMC 年報揭露2024年主要銷貨客戶，占銷貨淨額17%；公司未完整揭露中文全名，推估為海外煤焦油／碳黑原料或相關化工客戶。
  • 林園先進材料科技股份有限公司 國際中橡投資控股旗下未上市碳黑事業子公司；2024年為中碳主要銷貨客戶，占銷貨淨額13%，使用雜酚油等作為碳黑原料。
  • 國際中橡投資控股股份有限公司 2104 中碳主要股東之一；旗下碳黑事業與林園先進使用煤化學尾端油品作為碳黑原料，與中碳形成股東與下游客戶鏈結。
  • DALIAN 年報揭露2024年主要銷貨客戶，占銷貨淨額8%；公司未完整揭露法人全名與掛牌狀態，故stock_id設為null。
  • 鋰電池、儲能與車用電池客戶 介相碳微球、介相石墨碳微球與矽碳相關材料之下游；公司法說提及24M半固態電池、日本與其他客戶產線，但未完整揭露可對應台股代號之客戶名稱。
  • SiC晶圓與半導體熱場構件客戶 等方性石墨塊材、SiC長晶坩堝與工業熱場構件下游；公開資訊僅稱國內指標大廠與多家廠商驗證中，未揭露完整公司名稱。
  • 鋁業、碳黑、染料、苯乙烯、己內醯胺、酚、烷基苯、塗料與溶劑產業客戶 煤焦油、輕油與焦炭系列產品之終端應用產業；客戶多為國內外工業客戶，公司未逐一揭露完整名單。

Competitors

  • 台灣塑膠工業股份有限公司 1301 石化體系苯、芳香烴、溶劑與相關化學品供應鏈競爭者；與中碳輕油系列的苯、甲苯等產品存在替代競爭。
  • 台灣化學纖維股份有限公司 1326 台塑集團大型芳香烴與石化化學品廠商；在苯、甲苯、二甲苯與下游石化材料領域為中碳輕油系列的主要替代競爭來源之一。
  • 國喬石油化學股份有限公司 1312 苯乙烯與石化材料供應商；與中碳苯產品下游應用有產業鏈競合關係。
  • 中國石油化學工業開發股份有限公司 1314 石化與化學品廠商；在芳香烴與部分化工材料市場與中碳輕油系列產品具間接競爭。
  • 台灣苯乙烯工業股份有限公司 1310 苯乙烯產業公司，屬中碳苯產品下游應用鏈相關業者；與中碳關係偏下游與替代料源競合。
  • 榮炭科技股份有限公司 台股上櫃碳材料相關公司；第三方產業互動資料將其列為中碳競爭者，與精碳材料、碳粉或石墨材料市場具部分競爭。
  • 日高工程實業股份有限公司 第三方公司互動資料列為競爭者；與碳材料或工業材料應用市場可能有部分重疊，實際競爭範圍需依產品別再確認。
  • JFE Chemical Corporation 日本未在台股掛牌；煤焦油深加工、化學品與碳材料國際競爭者。
  • Nippon Steel Chemical & Material Co., Ltd. 日本未在台股掛牌；煤化學、功能材料與碳材料國際競爭者。
  • 中國大陸煤焦油深加工與負極材料廠商 非特定單一台股公司；年報明確指出中國大陸煤焦油深加工產能過剩與負極材料產能過剩，對全球市場價格與競爭造成不利影響。
Sources（15）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.